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Futures for higher education
- 1. Futures for Higher Education Scenario workshop FACILITATOR PACK
- 2. FUTURES FOR HIGHER EDUCATION Trends presentation 2016
- 3. This presentation focuses on three main trends The funding of higher education in the UK The demand for higher education Innovation and evolution in higher education A PICTURE FOR THE FUTURE?
- 4. And these are points for the group to consider Headline questions • What are the key decisions that face your institution? • How might these shape higher education in the UK and around the world? • How do you see the future of HE in the long term? Things to think about • What sectors have changed beyond recognition? • What sectors are starting rapid change now? • What about ‘Black Swans’?
- 5. These are some caricatures of the last decade • Demand continuing to outstrip heavily regulated supply • Persistence of a dominant 3 year residential degree model – prestige of traditional models • Private providers and FE marginal or subordinate to universities
- 6. We are now set for a liberalisation of the market • Supply side liberalisation • Tuition fee replacing grant – with more scope for differentiation in cost (Or not...) • Stronger demand led focus on ‘quality’ • Introduction of amendable mechanisms to restrain taxpayer liability
- 7. Others sectors have been through liberalisation •Lots of small niche suppliers & some big value entrantsNew entrants? •In what is offered in terms of services, pricing, support, etcInnovation? •Biggest and most financially sound of the ‘incumbents’ Continued market domination for a time? •Amongst both original players and new entrants Failures, mergers and take- overs? •Ex ante to protect consumer interests and ex post competition lawNew regulation? •An influx of foreign investment at some pointNew sources of funding?
- 8. Will this lock in the shift to tuition based funding? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 Indicative breakdown of funding between loans for the graduate contribution and HEFCE teaching grant, 2010/11 to 2014/15 Loans outlayto HEIs HEFCE teaching grant
- 9. What other questions will need to be resolved? Immediate questions • Impact of government student number de regulation and incentives (AAB and £75000) • The new regulatory framework – extent of any de regulation or liberalisation Short/ Medium term questions • Ending ‘moral hazard’ produced by government-backed loan – some risk transfer onto institutions • Reducing government exposure to cost of loan book through RAB charge adjustments • Setting student numbers free – ending student number controls • Use of competition regulation Ongoing variable themes • Public value agendas of mobility, equality and access • Research concentration v. diversification
- 10. But addressing these trends is not simple Brand Positioning Investment Overseas academic and industry partners for research New competitors – US and Chinese universities Complex ethical and political landscape Diverse student and staffing needs New organisational challenges – HR, finance Wider range of degree models (1+2 etc)
- 11. How will financial models evolve? • Efficiencies: streamlining and new accounting practices? • Costs: hollowing out of functions as part of efficiency and modernisation strategies – narrower focus? • Funding: new models of private revenue? • New ways of monetising the asset base – investment driven organisations?
- 12. And what about ‘unbundled’ models of delivery? • The role of technology in enabling the disaggregation of delivery and compartmentalised ‘products’ – The delivery process: • Content – syllabus, research & scholarship • Classroom – teaching, lectures, supervision • Infrastructure – IT networks, libraries, estates etc – The ‘product’: • Pay as you go tuition, credit accumulation • Examination, accreditation and validation • Assessment • Library services • Accommodation • Student finance?
- 13. And social priorities will evolve – what will be the next one? • The shift to a digital society: innovated and incubated by universities in the first place • Will it all be about technological and social solutions for climate change, or something else? Future of UK university research base, UUK 2010
- 14. Some initial questions for the group • What is right, wrong or missing from this picture: or have you heard it too often to care? • What is most significant for you and what are you less bothered about? • What are the most significant uncertainties and how might these shape outcomes? • What other ways are there or should there be of looking at all this?
- 15. READ MORE
Notas do Editor
- These is the basic structure of the presentation. Users are encouraged to amend it however they see fit; you may wish to remove slides that are less relevant. You may also want to include detail directly relevant to your situation. We found that this broad spread worked quite well in ensuring that the main areas were addressed by the whole group.
- The right-hand side of this slide encourages the group to reflect and challenge themselves about the future. The UUK exercise set itself the challenge of 30 years. This was not in an attempt to predict but as a device to lift participants out of the short and even medium term and to focus on the longer term and what may change. No other sectors are directly comparable. However, for purposes of illustration you may wish to highlight telecoms as an industry that has changed out of all recognition over the past 30 years with new companies, technology and the introduction of innovations such as talk plans. Similarly, you may wish to highlight the music industry as a sector that is undergoing major change due to the availability of online content and the impact that this is having on the production and dissemination of new music, alongside the continued popularity of live performances at concerts and festivals.
- This slide presents a caricatured version of how the sector has looked for the last decade. The principal point is that there has been limited change and that whilst there is variety in missions most institutions operate largely comparable models of education. You may disagree or it may be a different picture from your institution’s perspective.
- These are the headline features of the government policy set out in the fees reform of 2010 and those set out in the government 2011 White Paper ‘Putting students at the heart of the system’ and associated BIS technical and HEFCE consultations. The extent to which these will be achieved in practice can be debated but this is the intended direction of travel. The amendable taxpayer liability refers to the loan book which the government will also be able to manipulate into the future to reduce or increase public exposure.
- This slide invites reflection on what market liberalisation may produce based on the experience of other sectors. A number of these developments can already be seen in terms of new regulation. The extent to which the other points can be seen or will be expected is a theme of this presentation. The extent to which there will be genuine liberalisation is also an important question that you may wish to raise in order for the group to assess how different degrees of liberalisation, producing only some of the features listed, may need to be factored into your work.
- This slide illustrates the shift toward tuition-based funding in the sector. When considered in the context of the history of the last decade and its long-term economic impacts, the extent to which this shift will be locked in (ie the extent to which the group expects a large scale return of direct teaching grant funding – the blue portion) is an important question for the group. The second question on this slide is in relation to the loan proportion and how this will be viewed as there will continue to be public investment through the proportion of the loan book that is not repaid. It also raises questions about the relationship of your institution with students and the government – who is the customer here? When combined with deregulation of student number controls this shift will result in a demand-led model of institutional funding. What impacts would this have on your institution if place allocation were fully deregulated? Will you be prepared for this level of uncertainty?
- This presentation attempts to identify and encourage reflection on factors that will have a long-term impact on the sector. There are also a number of questions that are yet to be resolved but whose outcomes may play a significant role in institutions’ activity. Questions that can be anticipated to come onto the agenda in the short to medium term include: Student number allocation and deregulation Managing government exposure to the loan book through student repayment terms The balance of risk of non repayment between government, student and institution Ongoing areas include public value agendas such as: Social mobility and access Research concentration and diversification
- This slide offers an opportunity to orientate the discussion onto the specific or exacerbated challenges presented to the institution by globalisation. Our exercise highlighted the need for branding or position on the international stage, which is a more complex exercise on a global stage than it is in a UK-only context. In particular research was noted as an important brand or positioning feature that facilitated partnerships and activity on the international stage.
- This section starts to orientate discussion on the particular challenges that will be presented to your institution in terms of revenue, investment and organisational delivery models that are addressed in the following slides.
- The idea of unbundling emerges from telecoms and typically describes the separation of ownership of various parts of the telecoms infrastructure and end user provision. Increasingly it can also describe compartmentalising products so that potential customers can pick and choose depending on their need, with greater flexibility and accessibility. In higher education it is present in the form of private ownership of infrastructure on campus. Or it may refer to separating out teaching from awards through franchising. It may also describe ‘pay as you go’ models of delivery. The University of Phoenix model could be described as an unbundled model of delivery, with no permanent academic staff and pay as you go education models. Other trends of relevance here include open access education resources that allow students to pick and choose the resources and materials that they wish to use. Combine with a validated degree and the high cost of tuition may be questioned by some – see for example the London School of Business and Management Facebook MBA. This may be an extreme picture but all of these innovations, often driven by for-profits (or existing institutions) looking to develop saleable products or new markets, facilitated by online technologies, potentially ask questions of traditional models of delivery. Furthermore, at the extreme, the growing online open access to materials, as with digital music, may even present a challenge to an institution’s traditional authority as an educator and validator of knowledge.
- This slide provides an opportunity to reflect on the major issues that are affecting society that your institution may wish to engage and lead on and the steps that you may need to take now to ensure that you are in a position to be able to do so into the future.
- Some concluding questions that move the session toward small group work to help develop and capture analysis and creative thinking among the group.