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U.S. Regional Job and Wage Growth, 2016
1. 1
U.S. Regional Job and
Wage Growth Update
July 2016
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
2. 2
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Motivation
• U.S. job growth has slowed somewhat in 2016
• Increasing chatter among state forecasters about
lackluster revenue trends for both withholding and
sales taxes
• Is there an actual economic slowdown or are the
forecasts too high, thus creating potential budget
issues due to forecast errors?
• How does growth today compare to the housing
boom?
3. 3
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
tl;dr summary
• Most metros, states and regions are adding jobs today at
least as fast as during housing boom
• Average wage growth lower everywhere except East North Central
and Pacific
• Thus, aggregate wage growth today on par with housing boom
• Growth being driven by biggest metro areas
• Most large metros growing faster today than during housing boom
• Spread between big city growth and rural areas largest seen since
1990 recession and mid-80s commodity bust
• Oil patch slowdown and job losses are real
• Impacts big cities like Houston and Oklahoma City in addition to
rural counties in heartland
• West North Central and West South Central job growth slowing
down
• All other regions stable or accelerating job growth