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U.S. Regional Job and
Wage Growth Update
July 2016
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
2
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Motivation
• U.S. job growth has slowed somewhat in 2016
• Increasing chatter among state forecasters about
lackluster revenue trends for both withholding and
sales taxes
• Is there an actual economic slowdown or are the
forecasts too high, thus creating potential budget
issues due to forecast errors?
• How does growth today compare to the housing
boom?
3
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
tl;dr summary
• Most metros, states and regions are adding jobs today at
least as fast as during housing boom
• Average wage growth lower everywhere except East North Central
and Pacific
• Thus, aggregate wage growth today on par with housing boom
• Growth being driven by biggest metro areas
• Most large metros growing faster today than during housing boom
• Spread between big city growth and rural areas largest seen since
1990 recession and mid-80s commodity bust
• Oil patch slowdown and job losses are real
• Impacts big cities like Houston and Oklahoma City in addition to
rural counties in heartland
• West North Central and West South Central job growth slowing
down
• All other regions stable or accelerating job growth
4
Census Divisions
Jobs, Average Wages and Aggregate Wages
5
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
New England
CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT
6
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Middle Atlantic
NJ, NY, PA
7
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
East North Central
IL, IN, MI, OH, WI
8
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
West North Central
IA, KS, MN, MO, ND, NE, SD
9
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
South Atlantic
DC, DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV
10
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
East South Central
AL, KY, MS, TN
11
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
West South Central
AR, LA, OK, TX
12
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Mountain
AZ, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY
13
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Pacific
AK, CA, HI, OR, WA
14
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
15
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
16
Metro vs Nonmetro
Job Growth by Metro Size
17
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Big Cities Continue to Drive Growth
18
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Growth Rates Diverging
19
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Haven’t Seen This Spread In Quite
Some Time
20
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Nonmetro Slowdown is Oil Patch
21
Largest Metros
Job Growth
22
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Most big metros
growing faster
today than during
housing boom
23
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
There is an Oil Patch Slowdown
24
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
But Impact Seems Concentrated
25
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Some Acceleration Elsewhere
Helping Make Up the Gap
26
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
But Most Big Metros Seeing
Stable Growth, Pt 1
27
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
But Most Big Metros Seeing
Stable Growth, Pt 2
28
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
But Most Big Metros Seeing
Stable Growth, Pt 3
29
Housing Bust Metros
50 Worst Housing Bubble and Bust MSAs, All Sizes
30
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
31
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Not Translating into Stronger
Labor Force However
32
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Contact
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis
joshua.lehner@oregon.gov
(503) 378-4052

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U.S. Regional Job and Wage Growth, 2016

  • 1. 1 U.S. Regional Job and Wage Growth Update July 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
  • 2. 2 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Motivation • U.S. job growth has slowed somewhat in 2016 • Increasing chatter among state forecasters about lackluster revenue trends for both withholding and sales taxes • Is there an actual economic slowdown or are the forecasts too high, thus creating potential budget issues due to forecast errors? • How does growth today compare to the housing boom?
  • 3. 3 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis tl;dr summary • Most metros, states and regions are adding jobs today at least as fast as during housing boom • Average wage growth lower everywhere except East North Central and Pacific • Thus, aggregate wage growth today on par with housing boom • Growth being driven by biggest metro areas • Most large metros growing faster today than during housing boom • Spread between big city growth and rural areas largest seen since 1990 recession and mid-80s commodity bust • Oil patch slowdown and job losses are real • Impacts big cities like Houston and Oklahoma City in addition to rural counties in heartland • West North Central and West South Central job growth slowing down • All other regions stable or accelerating job growth
  • 4. 4 Census Divisions Jobs, Average Wages and Aggregate Wages
  • 5. 5 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis New England CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT
  • 6. 6 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Middle Atlantic NJ, NY, PA
  • 7. 7 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis East North Central IL, IN, MI, OH, WI
  • 8. 8 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis West North Central IA, KS, MN, MO, ND, NE, SD
  • 9. 9 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis South Atlantic DC, DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV
  • 10. 10 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis East South Central AL, KY, MS, TN
  • 11. 11 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis West South Central AR, LA, OK, TX
  • 12. 12 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Mountain AZ, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY
  • 13. 13 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Pacific AK, CA, HI, OR, WA
  • 14. 14 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
  • 15. 15 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
  • 16. 16 Metro vs Nonmetro Job Growth by Metro Size
  • 17. 17 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Big Cities Continue to Drive Growth
  • 18. 18 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Growth Rates Diverging
  • 19. 19 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Haven’t Seen This Spread In Quite Some Time
  • 20. 20 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Nonmetro Slowdown is Oil Patch
  • 22. 22 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Most big metros growing faster today than during housing boom
  • 23. 23 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis There is an Oil Patch Slowdown
  • 24. 24 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis But Impact Seems Concentrated
  • 25. 25 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Some Acceleration Elsewhere Helping Make Up the Gap
  • 26. 26 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis But Most Big Metros Seeing Stable Growth, Pt 1
  • 27. 27 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis But Most Big Metros Seeing Stable Growth, Pt 2
  • 28. 28 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis But Most Big Metros Seeing Stable Growth, Pt 3
  • 29. 29 Housing Bust Metros 50 Worst Housing Bubble and Bust MSAs, All Sizes
  • 30. 30 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
  • 31. 31 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Not Translating into Stronger Labor Force However
  • 32. 32 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Contact www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com @OR_EconAnalysis joshua.lehner@oregon.gov (503) 378-4052