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OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Oregon and the Mid-Valley
Economic and Housing Outlook
April 8th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Josh Lehner
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Economy
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Willamette valley jobs gap
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Long term outlook
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Housing Affordability
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Home prices up up up
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• No bubble
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Include Benton and Linn?
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Housing Demand Drivers
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Demographics and home ownership, linn-Benton,
need do IPUMS work!!!
34 Years Old
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
33 Years Old
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Moar broader focus on region
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Apt vs first time buyer demographics
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Interest rates, fence sitters
16q4
4.2%
17q4
4.5%
18q4
5.5%
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
One Big Problem
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Salem not building either
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
It’s 5 O‘ Clock Somewhere
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Outlook
• Mid-Valley economy is booming
• Population growth returning
• Affordability erodes as supply lags
• Pent-up demand to move
• Demographics favor rentals today and ownership
over next decade plus
• Wild Cards: preferences and credit availability
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
31
For More Information
Josh Lehner
joshua.lehner@oregon.gov
(503) 378-4052
Social Media:
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis

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Oregon Mid-Valley Outlook 2016