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May 2017 Economic &
Revenue Outlook
May 16th, 2017 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Mark McMullen
Josh Lehner
Economic Update and
Outlook
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
3
The Slowdown Is Here
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
4
Slowing Across Industries
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
5
Slowing Across Regions
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
6
Watch Me Work
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
7
•Fiscal Policy
General Impact Larger OR Impact
Tax Rates Tax Base Broadening
Infrastructure Trade Wars
Deregulation Federal Lands
Immigration Health Care
•Monetary Policy
•Rising Interest Rates
Risk: Federal Policy
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
8
Economic Outlook
Revenue Update and
Outlook
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
10
Slower Income Growth in
2016
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Proprietorships
IRAs
Pensions
Wages
Dividends
Total Income
Capital Gains
Interest
Social Security
Schedule E
Broad-Based Slowdown:
Matched Returns, Full-Year Tax Filers, % change
2014
2015
2016(P)
46%-->
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
11
PIT Withholdings Slow a Bit
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
12
April Payments on Track
$0.0
$0.1
$0.2
$0.3
$0.4
$0.5
$0.6
$0.7
$0.8
$0.9
$1.0
$1.1
January February March April May June
Billions
Still Processing Year-End Tax Payments
Oregon Cumulative Personal Income Tax Payments
Forecast
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2017
2015
2016
Latest Data: May 12, 2017 | Source: Oregon Dept of Revenue, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
May 12
+20.0%
May 1
+33.8%
April 15
+17.4%
April 1
+14.5%
March 1
-11.1%
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
13
Refunds Coming Up Short
-$1.3
-$1.1
-$0.9
-$0.7
-$0.5
-$0.3
-$0.1
January February March April May June
Billions
Where Will Refunds Land?
Personal Income Tax Refunds, Cumulative
Forecast
2017 2014
2013
2012
2015
2016
Latest Data: May 12, 2017 | Source: Oregon Dept of Revenue, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
14
Kicker 101
Kicker Base is Determined by the Close of Session Forecast for General Fund Less Corporate Taxes.
Close of Session = May 2015 Forecast + 2015 Legislative Actions
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
15
What Is Your Cut?
15
* Based on 2014 actual tax returns
** Based on 2014 actual tax returns, PIT kicker amount ($408 million) and the
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis’ forecast for tax liability
Income
Group
Adjusted Gross Income* Rough Estimate of
Kicker Size**
Bottom 20% < $10,489 $5
Second 20% $10,490 - $24,488 $32
Middle 20% $24,489 - $45,159 $91
Fourth 20% $45,160 - $82,786 $191
Next 15% $82,787 - $165,174 $408
Next 4% $165,175 - $368,109 $1,002
Top 1% > $368,109 $4,505
Average $57,165 $210
Median $30-35,000 $85
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
16
Kicker: Not A Done Deal Yet
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
17
2015-17 Errors
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
18
Estate Taxes
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
Jul-01 Jul-03 Jul-05 Jul-07 Jul-09 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-15
Millions
Oregon Estate Taxes
Monthly Collections
12 Month Average
Source: Oregon Dept. of Revenue, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
19
Estate Taxes
0
50
100
150
200
250
FY 00 FY 05 FY 10 FY 15 FY 20 FY 25
Oregon Estate Taxes
Index, FY 2007=100
Forecast -->
Latest Data: Fiscal Year 2016 | Source: Oregon DOR, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Tax Collections
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
20
Lottery Uncertainty
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
21
New Forecast: Marijuana
Upside
• Usage
• Black, Gray,
Medical
market
conversion
Downside
• Price
• Supply
• Federal
Government
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
22
Corporate Taxes: Are
Declines Over?
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Corporate Taxes Are Expected to Stabilize
Corporate Excise Taxes, $ millions, 4 QTR Sum
May 2015 Forecast
May 2017 Forecast
Forecast ->
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
23
Pass-Through Income
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016(P)
Oregon Income Reported by Full-Year Tax Filers, billions
Rent, Partnerships & S-Corps
Proprietorships
28% Above Pre-recession
Peak
66% Above Pre-recession
Peak
Forecast Changes
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
25
General Fund Forecast Summary
Positive
Factor
Negative
Factor
Personal
Income Taxes
Court Fines,
Fees &
Assessments
Corporate
Excise Taxes
Estate Taxes
Insurance
Taxes
(Millions)
2015 COS
Forecast
March 2017
Forecast
May 2017
Forecast
Change from
Prior Forecast
Change from
COS Forecast
Structural Revenues
Personal Income Tax $15,713.5 $15,709.8 $16,020.8 $311.0 $307.3
Corporate Income Tax $1,100.0 $1,136.2 $1,175.7 $39.5 $75.7
All Other Revenues $1,184.6 $1,264.6 $1,285.1 $20.5 $100.5
Gross GF Revenues $17,998.1 $18,110.6 $18,481.6 $371.0 $483.6
Offsets and Transfers -$42.8 -$44.4 -$45.2 -$0.8 -$2.4
Administrative Actions1
-$20.2 -$14.0 -$14.0 $0.0 $6.2
Legislative Actions -$158.9 -$158.3 -$158.3 $0.0 $0.6
Net Available Resources $18,309.1 $18,422.7 $18,792.9 $370.2 $483.8
Confidence Intervals
67% Confidence +/- 0.9% $173.0
95% Confidence +/- 1.9% $346.0
1 Reflects costofcashflow managementactions, exclusive ofinternal borrowing.
2015-17 General Fund Forecast Summary
$18.31B to $18.65B
$18.14B to $18.83B
Table R.1
Along with expenditure
savings, this increases
the ending balance for
2015-17 by $376
million
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
26
Ending Balances Help to Offset
the Kicker in BI2017-19
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
27
Forecast Changes
Difference from March Forecast, $ millions
27
27
373.7
-189.0
108.7
-39.1
-128.3
311.0
-245.9
32.6
-122.4
-217.0
-$300
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
2015-17 2017-19 2019-21 2021-23 2023-25
Personal Corporate Lottery Other Total
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
28
Biennial Revenue Growth
28
28
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Personal Income Taxes Total Net Revenue
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
29
Reserves
Effective Reserves ($ millions)
Apr
2017
End
2015-17
ESF $356.8 $383.8
RDF $375.5 $388.8
Reserves $732.3 $772.5
Ending
Balance $723.9 $723.9
Total $1,456.2 $1,496.4
% of GF 7.9% 8.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
99-01
BN
01-03
BN
03-05
BN
05-07
BN
07-09
BN
09-11
BN
11-13
BN
13-15
BN
15-17
BN
17-19
BN
19-21
BN
Oregon Budgetary Reserves (billions)
Gen. Fund Ending Balance Educ. Stability Fund Rainy Day Fund
Forecast -->
Percentof
General Fund-->
Source:Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
30
Contact
mark.mcmullen@oregon.gov
(503) 378-3455
josh.lehner@oregon.gov
(503) 378-4052
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis

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Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, May 2017

  • 1. May 2017 Economic & Revenue Outlook May 16th, 2017 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Mark McMullen Josh Lehner
  • 3. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 3 The Slowdown Is Here
  • 4. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 4 Slowing Across Industries
  • 5. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 5 Slowing Across Regions
  • 6. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 6 Watch Me Work
  • 7. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 7 •Fiscal Policy General Impact Larger OR Impact Tax Rates Tax Base Broadening Infrastructure Trade Wars Deregulation Federal Lands Immigration Health Care •Monetary Policy •Rising Interest Rates Risk: Federal Policy
  • 8. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 8 Economic Outlook
  • 10. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 10 Slower Income Growth in 2016 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Proprietorships IRAs Pensions Wages Dividends Total Income Capital Gains Interest Social Security Schedule E Broad-Based Slowdown: Matched Returns, Full-Year Tax Filers, % change 2014 2015 2016(P) 46%-->
  • 11. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 11 PIT Withholdings Slow a Bit
  • 12. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 12 April Payments on Track $0.0 $0.1 $0.2 $0.3 $0.4 $0.5 $0.6 $0.7 $0.8 $0.9 $1.0 $1.1 January February March April May June Billions Still Processing Year-End Tax Payments Oregon Cumulative Personal Income Tax Payments Forecast 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2017 2015 2016 Latest Data: May 12, 2017 | Source: Oregon Dept of Revenue, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis May 12 +20.0% May 1 +33.8% April 15 +17.4% April 1 +14.5% March 1 -11.1%
  • 13. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 13 Refunds Coming Up Short -$1.3 -$1.1 -$0.9 -$0.7 -$0.5 -$0.3 -$0.1 January February March April May June Billions Where Will Refunds Land? Personal Income Tax Refunds, Cumulative Forecast 2017 2014 2013 2012 2015 2016 Latest Data: May 12, 2017 | Source: Oregon Dept of Revenue, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
  • 14. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 14 Kicker 101 Kicker Base is Determined by the Close of Session Forecast for General Fund Less Corporate Taxes. Close of Session = May 2015 Forecast + 2015 Legislative Actions
  • 15. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 15 What Is Your Cut? 15 * Based on 2014 actual tax returns ** Based on 2014 actual tax returns, PIT kicker amount ($408 million) and the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis’ forecast for tax liability Income Group Adjusted Gross Income* Rough Estimate of Kicker Size** Bottom 20% < $10,489 $5 Second 20% $10,490 - $24,488 $32 Middle 20% $24,489 - $45,159 $91 Fourth 20% $45,160 - $82,786 $191 Next 15% $82,787 - $165,174 $408 Next 4% $165,175 - $368,109 $1,002 Top 1% > $368,109 $4,505 Average $57,165 $210 Median $30-35,000 $85
  • 16. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 16 Kicker: Not A Done Deal Yet
  • 17. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 17 2015-17 Errors
  • 18. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 18 Estate Taxes $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 Jul-01 Jul-03 Jul-05 Jul-07 Jul-09 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-15 Millions Oregon Estate Taxes Monthly Collections 12 Month Average Source: Oregon Dept. of Revenue, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
  • 19. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 19 Estate Taxes 0 50 100 150 200 250 FY 00 FY 05 FY 10 FY 15 FY 20 FY 25 Oregon Estate Taxes Index, FY 2007=100 Forecast --> Latest Data: Fiscal Year 2016 | Source: Oregon DOR, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Tax Collections
  • 20. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 20 Lottery Uncertainty
  • 21. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 21 New Forecast: Marijuana Upside • Usage • Black, Gray, Medical market conversion Downside • Price • Supply • Federal Government
  • 22. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 22 Corporate Taxes: Are Declines Over? 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Corporate Taxes Are Expected to Stabilize Corporate Excise Taxes, $ millions, 4 QTR Sum May 2015 Forecast May 2017 Forecast Forecast ->
  • 23. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 23 Pass-Through Income $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016(P) Oregon Income Reported by Full-Year Tax Filers, billions Rent, Partnerships & S-Corps Proprietorships 28% Above Pre-recession Peak 66% Above Pre-recession Peak
  • 25. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 25 General Fund Forecast Summary Positive Factor Negative Factor Personal Income Taxes Court Fines, Fees & Assessments Corporate Excise Taxes Estate Taxes Insurance Taxes (Millions) 2015 COS Forecast March 2017 Forecast May 2017 Forecast Change from Prior Forecast Change from COS Forecast Structural Revenues Personal Income Tax $15,713.5 $15,709.8 $16,020.8 $311.0 $307.3 Corporate Income Tax $1,100.0 $1,136.2 $1,175.7 $39.5 $75.7 All Other Revenues $1,184.6 $1,264.6 $1,285.1 $20.5 $100.5 Gross GF Revenues $17,998.1 $18,110.6 $18,481.6 $371.0 $483.6 Offsets and Transfers -$42.8 -$44.4 -$45.2 -$0.8 -$2.4 Administrative Actions1 -$20.2 -$14.0 -$14.0 $0.0 $6.2 Legislative Actions -$158.9 -$158.3 -$158.3 $0.0 $0.6 Net Available Resources $18,309.1 $18,422.7 $18,792.9 $370.2 $483.8 Confidence Intervals 67% Confidence +/- 0.9% $173.0 95% Confidence +/- 1.9% $346.0 1 Reflects costofcashflow managementactions, exclusive ofinternal borrowing. 2015-17 General Fund Forecast Summary $18.31B to $18.65B $18.14B to $18.83B Table R.1 Along with expenditure savings, this increases the ending balance for 2015-17 by $376 million
  • 26. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 26 Ending Balances Help to Offset the Kicker in BI2017-19
  • 27. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 27 Forecast Changes Difference from March Forecast, $ millions 27 27 373.7 -189.0 108.7 -39.1 -128.3 311.0 -245.9 32.6 -122.4 -217.0 -$300 -$250 -$200 -$150 -$100 -$50 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 2015-17 2017-19 2019-21 2021-23 2023-25 Personal Corporate Lottery Other Total
  • 28. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 28 Biennial Revenue Growth 28 28 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Personal Income Taxes Total Net Revenue
  • 29. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 29 Reserves Effective Reserves ($ millions) Apr 2017 End 2015-17 ESF $356.8 $383.8 RDF $375.5 $388.8 Reserves $732.3 $772.5 Ending Balance $723.9 $723.9 Total $1,456.2 $1,496.4 % of GF 7.9% 8.1% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 99-01 BN 01-03 BN 03-05 BN 05-07 BN 07-09 BN 09-11 BN 11-13 BN 13-15 BN 15-17 BN 17-19 BN 19-21 BN Oregon Budgetary Reserves (billions) Gen. Fund Ending Balance Educ. Stability Fund Rainy Day Fund Forecast --> Percentof General Fund--> Source:Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
  • 30. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 30 Contact mark.mcmullen@oregon.gov (503) 378-3455 josh.lehner@oregon.gov (503) 378-4052 www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com @OR_EconAnalysis