Delphi Tutu2 Ptapio 050217

Delphi applications Some problems and solutions Case: Traffic CO 2 Policy in Finland Petri Tapio Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki Finland Futures Research Centre

P. Tapio: TUTU 2, 17.2.2005 Delphi features Traditional Disaggregative ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Best argument wins Anonymity of arguments Multiple rounds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Consensus Accurate prediction Median & interquartiles ANOVA between rounds Dissensus Alternative scenarios All responses eg. Cluster analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Individual expert Anonymity Questionnaire Passive Interest group No anonymity Questionnaire & interview Active

Delphi approaches P. Tapio: TUTU 2, 17.2.2005 Interest of knowledge Method, eg. Timing of investments Estimate a year when something happens New innovations Open question for new technologies Scenarios for ’old’ issues Give background data from the past and draw a line to the future Policy Delphi Probable and preferred future Argument Delphi Make them argue

Whatever approach you choose… ,[object Object],P. Tapio: TUTU 2, 17.2.2005

Buy our method 9999€… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],P. Tapio: TUTU 2, 17.2.2005

Case: GDP, Road traffic and CO 2 from road traffic in Finland in 1970-1996 How about the future? P. Tapio: TUTU 2, 17.2.2005

Fourteen interest groups ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],P. Tapio: TUTU 2, 17.2.2005

Delphi with two rounds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],P. Tapio: TUTU 2, 17.2.2005

Posing questions: problematic  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],P. Tapio: TUTU 2, 17.2.2005

Posing questions: problematic  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],P. Tapio: TUTU 2, 17.2.2005

Posing questions – better  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],P. Tapio: TUTU 2, 17.2.2005

Posing questions: better  ,[object Object],P. Tapio: TUTU 2, 17.2.2005

What will you do with the gathered data? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],P. Tapio: TUTU 2, 17.2.2005 ? ? ? ? ?

Reference ,[object Object],[object Object],P. Tapio: TUTU 2, 17.2.2005

Delphi Tutu2 Ptapio 050217

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Delphi Tutu2 Ptapio 050217