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El futuro-de-la-tecnologia-y-la-tecnologia-del-futuro-jose-luis-cordeiro
1. José Luis Cordeiro
The Millennium Project
Director, Venezuela Node
Singularity University
NASA Ames, California, USA
IDE – JETRO, Tokyo, Japan (past 3 years)
Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea (next 3 years)
Lima, 17 de septiembre de 2011
4. The Millennium Project’s
15th Anniversary
Annual Report Card
on the Future
• Global Challenges
• State of the Future Index
• Egypt 2020
• Future Arts/Media 2020
• Latin America 2030
• Environmental Security
• Other Futures Research
Plus 8,000-page CD
6. Development is faster and faster
La Escalera del Desarrollo
(Tiempo para duplicar el PIB por habitante)
La Escalera del Desarrollo
China, 1987-1994
Corea del Sur, 1978-1987
Es paña, 1950-1968
Ital ia, 1890-1911
J apón, 1885-1919
EUA, 1839-1886
Reino Uni do, 1780-1838
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Años
29. Sequencing the genome: cost and time
Year Cost (US$) Time
2003 1,000,000.000 13 years
2007 100,000,000 4 years
2008 1,000,000 2 months
2009 10,000 4 weeks
2015 100 5 days
2020 10 8 hours
43. • La Edad de Piedra se acabó y no
por falta de piedras, y la Edad
del Petróleo se acabará pronto y
no por falta de petróleo.
Jeque Yamani, 2000
Arabia Saudita
46. Finlandia
(siglo XIX)
•País pobre
•Atrasado
•Colonia
•Idioma “bárbaro”
47. Bioenergy and “eternal” energy
• Photosynthesis:
CO2 + 2 H2O + light
→ (CH2O) + O2 + H2O
• From fossil
hydrocarbons to live
carbohydrates
• Craig Venter and his
artificial bacteria
48. NASA: Space Solar Power Strategy
2002 2003-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020
FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
SSP Concept Complete Initial SSP Technology Research
Technology definition complete for 1-10 MW Class to Full-Scale Systems
Studies & Proof-of- Testbeds
Concept
Technology Component-Level
Research (TRL 2-4) Proof-of-Concept
experiments
Ground Test of SPG/WPT/Other Breadboards Complete Initial R&D for
1 MW to Full-Scale SSP
Technology 10 kW 100 kW 1 MW
Research, Develop
ment and Test Ground Test very large
(TRL 4-5) deployable structures
Complete Initial R&D for
High Efficiency High Power SEPS High-Power GEO 1 MW to Full-Scale SSP
Dual-Purpose Arrays for S/C For Science Probes CommSats
Applications R&D
(TRL 4-6) Lunar Power, Large SEPS MSC 3
Large structures for large
apertures & solar sails 10 MW-Class Flight
MSC 1 Demo (TRL 7)
50 M Class flight expt. 100 kW Class SSP
(incl SPG, AR&D, dist. control) flight demo
Technology Demos
(TRL 6-7) MSC 4+
Component-Level MSC 2 1 MW Class SSP advanced (2020+)
Flight Experiments 10-100 kW SSP technology subsystem flight
planetary surface demo’s (SPG/SEPS/WPT)
demo
LEGEND R&D Major R&D Pgm Strategic R&T Road SSP Model System
Decision Point Milestone Map Objective Concept(s)
51. ¿Qué es el futuro?
• ¡El futuro ya no es
lo que era antes!
• Lo que hoy se vive no es el
acabose, sino apenas el
continuose de lo que
empezose ya mucho ha.
Mafalda
52. Attitudes
towards the future
•Passive (ostrich) Suffer the future
•Reactive (fire fighter) Respond
•Preactive (insurer) Prepare
•Proactive (builder) Create
55. The Three Laws of Sir Arthur C. Clarke
• First Law: When a distinguished but
elderly scientist states that something is
possible, he is almost certainly right.
When he states that something is
impossible, he is very probably wrong.
• Second Law: The only way of discovering
the limits of the possible is to venture a
little way past them into the impossible.
• Third Law: Any sufficiently advanced
technology is indistinguishable from
magic.
56. Technologies of the “past”
• 30 years ago
Personal computers
• 20 years ago
Cell phones
• 10 years ago
Google
• What will happen in 10 years? In 20
years? In 30 years?
Immortal (ageless) cells!
112. Bart Kosko, USC: Biology is not destiny.
It was never more than tendency.
Biology was just nature's first quick and
dirty way to compute with meat.
Chips are destiny!
113. Transhumanism is S&T for humans:
transcending human limitations
www.TransHumanismo.org
Are humans trans-monkeys?