L24 The Future
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This document discusses emerging technologies and their potential impacts. It begins by noting that while technology progress is often emphasized, the social and cultural impacts are also important to consider. Several key technologies are then summarized, including smartphones and their dominance, the internet of things, digital transformation of businesses, 3D printing, robotics like self-driving cars, augmented and virtual reality, and machine learning. While the future possibilities seem vast, challenges like inequality and the environment remain, though optimism about abundance through technologies is expressed.
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L24 The Future
- 2. “Optimism is a strategy for making a better future. Because unless you believe that the future can be better, you are unlikely to step up and take responsibility for making it so.” - Noam Chomsky
- 4. BBC Horizon (1964) with Arthur C. Clarke
- 6. THE FUTURE WILL BE FANTASTIC
- 10. This is how computers worked in 2000
- 12. Douglas Adams in 2001
- 14. Stuff that works
- 15. “The most profound technologies are those that disappear” — Mark Weiser
- 16. WE EMPHASIZE TECHNOLOGY BUT IGNORE THE SOCIAL AND CULTURAL IMPACT
- 17. HOW WILL THIS TECHNOLOGY CHANGE PEOPLE’S BEHAVIOR?
- 21. WE ARE STILL IN THE EARLY STAGES OF TECHNOLOGY GROWTH
- 22. 72 YEARS AGO
- 23. 47 YEARS AGO
- 24. 39 YEARS AGO
- 25. 35 YEARS AGO
- 26. 32 YEARS AGO
- 27. Attribution: Chris 73 / Wikimedia Commons 26 YEARS AGO
- 28. THE CAR AT 26 YEARS
- 29. 12 YEARS AGO
- 30. 9 YEARS AGO
- 31. 6 YEARS AGO
- 33. Smartphone Revolutions Mainframes 1947 Minicomputers 1965 PC 1981 1995 Internet 2007 The Smartphone era is ending - what is next?
- 34. SOFTWARE AND DATA ARE IN THE CLOUD
- 35. INTERNET – 2,5 BILLION PEOPLE + 3 BILLION COMING ONLINE
- 36. COMPUTERS, PHONES, DEVICES ARE JUST GATEWAYS TO THE CLOUD
- 37. Nine Important Technology Trends
- 38. The technology part is usually not difficult to understand The nature of what the technology can do to change people’s behavior is much more difficult for people to understand 3-5 years into the future is no problem - its safe to ignore The “now” is the challenge Think About This Remove the technology and understand the behaviour and what is changing it
- 39. SoLoMo 1
- 40. THE SMARTPHONE JUST ATE THE WORLD 4 billion people are buying new smartphones every two years Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides 7.5 trillion SMS message sent each year globally WhatsApp, an app that was built by a team of 30 people and acquired by Facebook for $19 billion, processes 7.2 trillion messages a year
- 41. If you want to get customers to use software, you cannot ignore mobile Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides THE SMARTPHONE JUST ATE THE WORLD
- 42. And we are talking about apps not mobile web - its not a technical questions Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides THE SMARTPHONE JUST ATE THE WORLD
- 43. SOCIAL IS CHANGING THE WORLD Doing business has changed in a fundamental way Real time has taken over Now you have to listen 24/7 and act immediately - there is not time to wait for a board meeting
- 45. ADAPTIVE TO YOU - LOCAL Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides Analysing you for better service in crucial The gatekeepers are replaced with algorithms That can be good or that can be bad
- 46. REVOLUTIONS
- 47. REVOLUTIONS
- 48. Transformation from Hierarchical to Networks 2
- 49. 20TH CENTURY SOCIETY WAS HIERARCHAL Governments structure Corporation structure and interaction of companies Coordination cost is high
- 50. 21ST CENTURY SOCIETY BECOMES NETWORK Software connects individuals Coordination drops towards zero
- 51. NETWORK ECONOMY Twitter takes over real-time news Youtube takes over videos, lectures, how-tos, entertainments and LOL cats are invented Anybody can be a producer
- 52. 21ST CENTURY SOCIETY BECOMES NETWORK “Sharing economy” Coordination cost is low Rating systems replace inspections Any business that is built around a hierarchy with high coordination cost, will be crushed by a networked software solution with low coordination cost
- 56. USING COMPUTER IN THE INFORMATION AGE You sit down and use the comptuer You use the software for your work The computer is a tool just like any other tool
- 57. USING COMPUTER IN THE DIGTIAL AGE Now the computer tells you what is happening and what you need to do Real-time Algorithms - from using to being used The roles have switches - the algorithms are using us
- 58. What is happening to most businesses is not only online offering of products and services It the transformation of old established physical way of doing business into new ways that are optimized around real-time software systems This is called Digital Transformation DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
- 59. Software is becoming the change agent of all business If the internet has not disrupted a business, it will Traditional industries like retail, shipping, banking, insurance, law firms, health and the list goes on… DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
- 64. Internet of Things — $15 trillion by 2025 https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/may/06/what-is-the-internet-of-things-google
- 65. Physical components comprise the product’s mechanical and electrical parts Smart components comprise the sensors, microprocessors, data storage, controls, software, and, typically, an embedded operating system and enhanced user interface Connectivity components comprise the ports, antennae, and protocols enabling wired or wireless connections with the product Smart Connected Things
- 67. WAREABLE REVOLUTION Things you carry on you, that measure you with sensors or augments you perception Smartwatches seems to be the “big thing” of wearables
- 68. Wristbands that interpret sign language
- 69. T-shirt from DigInfo Two that measures heartbeat
- 70. 3D Printing 5
- 71. $2 trillion by 2025
- 72. REVOLUTION IN MANUFACTURING Huge disruption in design, prototyping and manufacturing goods Mass manufacturing suddeny is not the only way Cost of production drops dramatically Anybody can create stuff - personalise stuff
- 76. Robotics 6
- 77. Robot Manufacturing — $10 trillion by 2025
- 78. Robotic in the 21st century Robots that see, hear and sense Robots that can communicate Powerful machines with software and internet connectivity
- 80. Drones - robots that fly
- 82. Self-driving Cars an $10 trillion by 2025
- 85. There are 3.5 million truck drivers in the US
- 86. Self driving delivery Robot
- 87. The Physical blends with the Digital 8
- 89. AUGMENTED REALITY Overlaying digital over the physical Gaming, instructions, design, prototyping etc will fundamentally change
- 90. VIRTUAL REALITY Completely enter the virtual world Gaming, learning, travelling, exploring, movies, entertainment, porn, etc will fundamentally change
- 91. Virtual Reality for training and better information
- 93. AI Knowledge Work — $25 trillion by 2025
- 95. WILL THE FUTURE BE FANTASTIC?
- 96. What about wars, global warming, terrorism, inequality, poverty,..?
- 97. Peter Diamandis Abundance is our future - 2012 TED talk
- 99. NOW IS THE TIME TO BE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE FUTURE
- 102. “I like stepping into the future. Therefore, I look for doorknobs.” ― Mark Rosen
- 103. New Technology 2016
- 104. New Technology 2016