After the computing industry got started, a new problem quickly emerged. How do you operate this machines and how to you program them. The development of operating systems was relatively slow compared to the advances in hardware. First system were primitive but slowly got better as demand for computing power increased. The ideas of the Graphical User Interfaces or GUI (Gooey) go back to Doug Engelbarts Demo of the Century. However, this did not have much impact on the computer industry. One company though, Xerox, a photocopy company explored these ideas with Palo Alto Park. Steve Jobs of Apple and Bill Gates of Microsoft took notice and Apple introduced first Apple Lisa and the Macintosh. In this lecture on we look so lessons for the development of software, and see how our business theories apply.

1. Lecture L13
THE POWER OF SOFTWARE

2. The Software Crisis

3. Software
As computers became more powerful and more common, a new
problem surfaced: software
!
Development of computers was a hardware problem
!
Software or programs did not get the same attention
!
Operating systems were primitive and programming
was done at a very low level

4. The Software Crisis
Software Engineering was not a established field
!
Became known as The Software Crisis
“[The major cause of the software crisis is] that the
machines have become several orders of magnitude more
powerful!”
-Edsger Dijkstra, The Humble Programmer
Source:
Software_crisis

5. Operating Systems
IBM developed OS/360 for System 360
!
DEC developed VMS for VAX
!
Unix was grew out individual efforts as response to Multix
!
System V, BSD, Solaris
!
Minix was an academic effort, Linux grew out of frustration with Minix licence

6. Programming Languages
!
FORTRAN!
Mathematical Formula Translation System
Released in 1957
!
Higher level language that became
breakthrough in writing software
!
Created by John Backus of IBM
!
Came on 2.000 punched cards
Other languages followed: COBOL, Algol

8. May 25, 1961
Status:!
!
Mainframe era, mini computer early days
!
Transistor era, integrated circuits just invented
!
Programming languages new

9. “The
space
program
badly
needed
the
things
the
integrated
circuit
could
provide.”
-­‐
Jack
St.
Clair
Kilby

10. Semiconductor Industry is Born
Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore founded Intel
Semiconductor company
!
Initial focus was on memory chips
!
There was still enormous potential market for calculations
!
The vision of Charles Babbage was still not realised but the mainframe
market met the needs of governments and large organisations

11. The Microprocessor
Intel introduced the first microprocessor 4004 in 1971
!
8008 in 1972, 8080 in 1974 and 8088 in 1979
!
The beginning of the PC

12. The Microprocessor
Intel was really reluctant to go into the microchip business
!
No market existed
No demand at the time
!
Intel created 4004 for another company
They would not market chips, but built them when ordered

13. The Calculator

14. The Calculator
Advances in technology introduced the
desktop calculator
!
The market grew fast
With advances, the calculators became more powerful and smaller
!
Pocket calculators
Became widespread in the 70s
!
Replaced the slide rule after 374 years

15. Calculator Wars
Many companies start to make Calculators
Casio, Sharp, Canon, HP, MITS and more
!
In Europe, Aristo, Denner & Pape, a slide rule manufacturer
since 1872, also entered the market in 1972
!
Price dropped fast: $400 in 1972, $200, $100 and $50 in 1974
!
Companies like MITS need to find new ways of revenues

16. Think about this!
All mini-computer companies had
what it would take to go into small
scale products – they even had
people proposing the idea, but they
did not!

17. The Personal Computer

18. The Personal Computer
MITS marketed Altair in 1975
Came with Intel 8080
!
Users needed to assemble the machine themselves
No keyboard, no screen, no printer
256 byte of RAM, programmed with switches
!
Included BASIC interpreter from Microsoft
Written by Bill Gates and Paul Allen
Cost of $397 appealed to computer enthusiasts

19. Microsoft is Born
Bill Gates and Paul Allen!
!
Wrote a BASIC interpreter
for the Altair
!
Founded a company they called
Micro-Soft

20. Enter Apple
Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak!
!
Show the Apple I in the Palo Alto
Homebrew Computer Club in 1976
!
Apple II was marketed 1977 and became a huge
success - “Apple growth”
!
Hewlett-Packard had turn Wozniak down – no market

21. “The
Personal
Computer
will
fall
flat
on
its
face
in
business.”
-­‐
Ken
Olsen

22. Computer Companies
Existing computer companies were not interested in PCs
!
DEC, HP, IBM, and Control Data did not see a business model
HP rejected a proposal from Steve Wozniak
DEC rejected a proposal from David Ahl
!
Support for machines like this was considered impossible
!
Consequence:
The development of the PC had to begin with hobbyists

24. Think About This!
The Liquid Network

25. The Software Industry
First applications were non-serious
!
Soon business applications started to emerge
!
VisiCalc was the “killer-app” 20% of computer
sales was due to this program
!
Other business apps appeared:
Ledgers, payrolls, inventory, etc.
!
Disruptive technology

26. Killer Apps
Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston
Created VisiCalc, the first spreadsheet
The spreadsheet created a new market
!
People bought the hardware to run the software

28. Q4
IBM successfully entered the PC
market – according to RPV
theory this would be difficult.
How did they do this?

29. IBM PC
IBM decided to enter the PC revolution
!
The company was loosing market share, competition was growing
!
Project “Chess”!
Bill Lowe was given one year to create a Personal Computer – “Acorn”
!
Lowe and his team – “Dirty Dozen”, went to work in Boca Raton, FL
!
Looked for parts outside of the company

30. The War of the OS
IBM needed an Operating System
!
Most popular system was Digital Research CP/M, created by Gary
Kildall
!
Microsoft was providing programming languages
and suggested that IBM make a deal with DR

31. The Birth of the Microsoft DOS
Robert X. Cringely PBS documentary

32. The War of the OS
IBM decided on PC-DOS from Microsoft which bought the OS from
another company
!
Negotiated revenue sharing with IBM
In the 80s, DOS had 90% of the OS market

33. PC-DOS
Small system
Came on a floppy

34. IBM PC
The IBM PC was introduced 12.
August 1981 in New York
!
4.7 MHz Intel 8088, 16 kb RAM,
DOS 1.0 for $1.565

35. Enter the Clones

36. Enter the Clones
IBM released all the specification of the machine
Open system
!
This allowed new entrants to create IBM compatible machines
Compac was one of them

37. Enter the Clones
IBM controlled the market for a few years
!
They rationalised their product lines - deliberately restricted
performance of lower-priced models in order to prevent them from
cannibalising higher-priced models
!
The Compac passed them in 1986 with the Intel 386 machines
!
The PC market took off
!
IBM started to loose market share

38. PC Compatible Machines Ruled
Early 80s IBM PC became the standard
hardware
!
MS-DOS became the industry standard OS
!
Command Line Interface – CLI
Text User Interfaces – TUI

39. Key Trend
Focus in on hardware, the
software is good-enough

40. Adoption Life Cycle
Still in the early stages –
technology is the focus

41. “The best way to predict the future is to
invent it.”
- Alan Key
The Demo in 1968

42. The Demo
1968

43. The Demo in 1968
Doug Engelbart at the Augmentation
Research Centre in Melno Park
!
Demonstrated the future of computing

44. Features
A pointing device – the Mouse
Hypertext, graphical user interface
Dynamic file linking
!
Shared-screen collaboration involving
two persons at different sites
communicating over a network with
audio and video interface

45. Xerox Parc

46. Xerox Parc
Xerox created a lab in 1970
!
Palo Alto Research Park – PARC
!
PARC was a place for visionaries
!
The Alto computer system had
Graphical User Interface – GUI
and a mouse as an input
!
Desktop metaphor with Files and folders
Alto Computer 1972

48. Then Steve came on a visit

49. Graphical User Interfaces – GUI
Steve Jobs visited Xerox PARC 1979
Negotiated at deal with Xerox
!
They showed him:
Object Oriented Programming!
Computer networks!
Graphical User Interface!
!
Apple started to work on this vision
The Pirate Years

50. RPV Theory
Xerox had just build the
OS of the future but they
did nothing with it

51. Graphical User Interfaces – GUI
Desktop metaphor
Point,
activate,
select
Windows,
scroll
bars
Point,
Click,
Drag
Menus
Files,
folders
Icons
Graphical
fonts
Clipboard,
cut
and
paste,
undo

52. Apple Lisa
First commercial computer with a GUI
Introduced in January 1983
Cost $9.995!
Motorola 68000 CPU at a 5 MHz clock rate and had 1MB RAM
!
Featured cooperative (non-preemptive)
multi-tasking and virtual memory
!

53. Apple Lisa
First commercial computer with a GUI
Introduced in January 1983
Cost $9.995!
!
Impact:
Business failure
Too expensive
Too slow
!
!

54. Adjacent Possible
Technology wasn’t
there yet

55. Macintosh
In 1984, Apple launched Macintosh
Cost $1.995!
!
Graphical User Interface
!
This set the standard for Operating Systems
!
Specification:
128 KB of RAM
Screen was a 9-inch,
512x342 pixel monochrome display

56. Macintosh
Acceptance was slow
The Mac was underpowered
The GUI required memory and power
!
Writing Software was difficult
!
Gained popularity in education and with
graphical designers – desktop publishers
!
Not so popular in the traditional business sector
Microsoft provided applications (office apps)

57. Others Join the Game
Microsoft launched Windows 1.01 in 1985
!
Gates and Microsoft believed Graphical User Interfaces
were the future
!
Regarded Front-end to DOS
!
Other players
IBM TopView, DR GEM
!
Impact
Software companies ignored Windows
The business sector was not ready

58. DOS was in Crisis
By 1985 Microsoft had released DOS 3
!
But frustration increased

59. DOS was in Crisis
Single task system – you can only run one program at the time
!
The 640 KB memory barrier
TSR – Terminate and Stay Resident
became popular but was causing problems
!
Users were looking for multitasking
!
Run more than one program at a time
!
More advanced operating system was needed

60. Windows 3.0
Windows finally became usable
Released May 1990
!
Better use of memory
Multitasking
Used the 286 and 386 hardware better
Support for CD-ROM
Solitaire
!
Impact:
First GUI used by the
PC market
The end of DOS, finally

61. Windows 95

62. KEY TREND
Computers become
consumer devices

64. Windows 95
Microsoft turned to consumers
Windows 95 was targeted at the consumer market
Support for the Internet
Internet Explorer
Friendlier user interfaces
!
Impact
Released with great fanfare
Came to dominate the OS market
The OS become more important than the hardware

65. Operating System for Consumers

66. Operating Systems Today
More chocies, less important
Ubuntu
Mac
OS
X
Windows

67. Think about this!
Computers become
commoditized – brands are not
important anymore

68. Lessons

69. Lessons
▪ Shift from hardware to software
▪ None
of
the
minicomputer
makers
became
a
significant
factor
in
the
desktop
personal
computer
market
▪ The
PC
was
disruptive
technology
▪ The
minicomputer
users
were
not
buying
PCs
–
yet
▪ This
created
a
new
set
of
entrants:
Apple,
Tandy,
Commodore,
and
IBM

70. Lessons
▪ In
the
late
1980s
the
performance
of
PCs
met
the
needs
of
minicomputer
users
▪ This
severely
wounded
minicomputer
makers
–
many
of
them
failed
▪ At
same
time
IBM
succeeded
in
entering
the
PC
market
–
how?
▪ It
created
an
autonomous
organization
in
Florida
–
far
away
from
it’s
New
York
headquarters
▪ They
created
the
PC
market
▪ Then
headquarters
took
control
and
lost
control
to
the
Clones

71. Lessons
▪ Xerox mangement did not enter the
computer market
▪ PARC members tried to show management –
but they “just didn’t get it”
▪ Xerox is in the copying documents business –
their customers were not asking for computer
systems
▪ Visionary Computers did not fit their
resources, processes and values
– RPV theory

72. Lessons
▪ Doug Englebart envisioned the future of
computers
▪ Xerox PARC built the visionary computer –
but did not pursue it
▪ Early enthusiast like Ed Roberts of MITS and
others did not get rich of computers and
software
▪ Visionaries like Dan Bricklin and Bob
Frankston invented VisiCalc – did not make
much money

73. Lessons
▪ Bill Gates saw the potential of software and
started Microsoft
▪ Took the opportunity with MITS
▪ Focused on software
▪ Gary Kildall invented the C/PM system but
Microsoft bought similar OS and succeeded
▪ Wrote software for Apple and later Macintosh
▪ You don’t have to have superior products to win
▪ You don’t have to invent technology – just use it

74. Lessons
▪ Apple and Steve Jobs saw the potential of
computers and then GUIs
▪ GUI were slow to appear
▪ Infrastructure product - needs software and users
▪ Stretched the hardware at the time
▪ Disruptive with new market – consumers
▪ Apple Lisa failed – lacking in performance
▪ The Macintosh started slowly and found some
niche market in Desktop Publishing and schools

75. Lessons
▪ Windows 95 was marketed to the consumer
▪ First mass market of Operating Systems
– The Internet helped
▪ Today we have three major Operating
Systems
– Linux (Unix based)
– MacOS (Unix based)
– Windows

76. Q7
What is the future of Personal Computers?

77. PC Evolution
Software
OS
era
Windows,
Office,
MacOS
Hardware
era
PC,
Mac
1975
1980
1985
Internet
Hardware
Connects
1990
IBM
PC
Apple
1995
2000
Microsoft
2005
Software
web
era
Web
2.0,
Social
2010
2015
Internet
of
things

78. 20 petaflops, or a quadrillion
calculations per second

79. Miniature Computers
Small devices that have computer power
Wireless capabilities
Dedicated devices
Enough computer power for limited functionality
!
Examples
RFID
UAV – Unmanned Arial Vehicles
Internet of things
Siftables

80. David Merrill demos Stiftables
Ted video

82. The Future of the PC
How long will the Hard Disk Drive last?
Solid state memory is getting bigger
Terabit Flash Memory
Computer architecture will change
More and more devices are
using Flash memory
Driving prices down

83. Tablets

84. Wearables, flyable, drivable, scannable…

85. The Network is the Comptuer
The Internet cloud
!
More programs and data is stored on network
servers
!
The Personal Computer becomes one of the form
factors to access the network
!
Examples
Amazon API
Google Apps
Facework Platform API

86. Tom Watson was wrong – there
is not room for five computers.
It’s only one

87. What about Moore’s Law
Shift to multicore started in
2005 – new dimension

88. What about Moore’s Law
Move to cloud-core

89. What about Moore’s Law
$1,279-­‐per-­‐hour,
30,000-­‐core
cluster
built
on
Amazon
EC2
cloud

90. How will we interact with
computers in the future?
!
Assume that the desktop
metaphor with mouse and
desktop and files – is dead
MISSION:
E NEXT CLASS
FIND OUT BEFOR