In the early days of product development, the technology is inferior and lacking in performance. The focus is very much on the technology itself. The users are enthusiast who like the idea of the product, find use for it, and except the lack of performance. Then as the product becomes more mature, other factors become important, such as price, design, features, portability. The product moves from being a technology to become a consumer item, and even a commodity. In this lecture we explore the change from technology focus to consumer focus, and look at why people stand in line overnight to buy the latest gadgets.

1. LECTURE L08
BECOMING INVISIBLE

2. Steve Jobs
Apple Special Event 27. January 2010

4. iPad
The iPad was released April 3rd
From January to April there was a lot of discussion about the iPad
And there were more sceptics than not

6. And how was the response, again?

8. 300,000 iPads were sold on their first day of availability
By May 3, 2010, Apple had sold a million iPads
iPad

10. Source: Morgan Stanley Research
https://techpinions.com/the-terrible-tablet-tantrum-part-1/30840

11. iPad sales 2010-2016

12. Inflection Point

13. Inflection points
When technology changes business
Rapid growth starts
Decline of growth starts

16. Inflection points
When technology changes business
Rapid growth starts
Decline of growth starts

17. Expectations of technology does not look like an S-curve

18. Hype Curve

19. Wired Magazine editor (former) Chris Anderson on
the Hype Curve and forecasting

21. The Hype Cycle
A graphic representation of the maturity, adoption and
business application of specific technologies
Peak of inflated Expectations
Technology Trigger
Trough of Disillusionment
Slope of Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity

22. Technology Trigger
R&D
Laboratory
prototypes
Startup companies
- first round of
capital funding

23. On the Rise
Media hype
begins
No working
prototype

24. On the Top
This time it’s
different
Best invention
since sliced
bread

25. Does not live up to expectations
What do you mean it
can’t do that?
Overrated!

26. Is it over or is there hope?
Nobody want’s this

27. The undetected rise
This actually works
doing what is was
supposed all along

28. Plateau - invisible - disappear
The what?

29. Hype Cycle 2000

31. Does this look like a bubble?

32. NASDAQ
January 2000
The Internet Bubble

33. The Internet Bubble burst

34. The Internet Bubble burst

35. The Internet Bubble

36. Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides
GROWTH INTO THE BUBBLE

37. Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides
GROWTH SINCE THE BUBBLE

38. The Railway Bubble
Railway Stock in Britain
The value of railway stock grew 4 fold from 1826 to 1846
Many companies, heavy over-investment
The bubble burst 1846

39. Inflection Point

40. Shift in Computing
Where is the C-drive?
Computer anyone can use
The computer just
disappeared
Computer you use standing

42. Tablets are not new
Microsoft released a tablet in 2002
It was not so successful - but why?

43. The Law of Prevailing Technology
It was too much like desktop computer but with
no keyboard and mouse - users felt like it was a
crippled system
Technology cramming - it was just a bad
computer, not a tablet

44. Shifting focus

45. Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER

46. Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
OBVIOUS
INVISIBLE

47. Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
ANALYTICAL THINKING
EMOTIONS AND
FEELINGS

48. Life Cycle of Technology
The move from Technology to Commodity
The need-satisfaction curve of technology

49. Early in the cycle, technology is important
When technology becomes good enough:
Value becomes more important
Design becomes more important
Technology is no longer the variable that controls purchases
Improvements loose their glamour
Customers are looking for things like value convenience, productivity,
ease-of-use, low-cost, reliability
Emotions
Technology Life Cycle

52. The Market of Commodities
What happens when a market becomes mature?
Karaoke Capitalism takes over
Red oceans
All the industries in existence today —the known market space
Industry boundaries are defined and accepted, and the
competitive rules of the game are known

53. Strategy for creating new markets
Make the competition irrelevant
Blue oceans denote all the industries
not in existence today—the unknown
market space, untainted by competition
Creating Blue Oceans

54. Instead of focusing on beating the competition, you focus
on making the competition irrelevant by creating a leap in
value for your buyers and your company, thereby opening
up new and uncontested market space
Value Innovation

55. Industrial Design

56. As technology matures,
design becomes important
Industrial Design

57. User Centred Design
Don Norman

60. Technology Adoption Life Cycle
The talent of the company that made the
product in the early days may become wrong
when the product matures
The organisational structure of companies
need to change when the company moves
from technology to products/services

61. Organisations which design
systems ... are constrained to
produce designs which are copies
of the communication structures
of these organisations
Conway’s Law

62. To whom does the designer report to?
A programmer?

63. 1983 1997
Jonathan Ive

64. TECHNOLOGY
BUSINESS
DESIGN

65. DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY
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