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day 1 - session 2: SPECIALITY METALS Outlook for commodity prices  ChristophEibl– Managing Partner,Tiberius Asset Management
GLOBAL MININGINVESTMENT CONFERENCE 2010 Lead sponsors: Media partners: Other sponsors & participating organisations:
CommoditiesMarket Outlook Global Mining Investment Conference  2010
I. Tiberius Group Introduction Tiberius Group ,[object Object]
Expertise in fixed-income management on the basis of institutional funds.
33 employees with wide-ranging experience in commodity trading, portfolio management and  research.
A model-supported, quantitative investment philosophy with a structured and transparent investment process.
The firm’s core competence lies in the active management of long- only and long/shortportfolios.
Total assets currently under management by the Tiberius Group: 2.2 billion USD
Tiberius is regulated by FINMA (Swiss Banking Supervisory Authority)4
Tiberius Leading Indicator Index - despite slight decline at a very high level 5 Market Outlook Cyclical trend
Market Outlook Evaluation of forward curves  Forward curves have improved steadily since Q2 2009 6
Speculative sentiment has improved again 7 Market Outlook Short term capital flows
Continued buying interest of institutional market participants 8 Market Outlook Long term capital flows
Market Outlook Conclusion 9 The Lights for commodity investments mainly give positive signals 1. Ecomomic Cycle- Uptrend in industrial production is intact 2. Forward Curves- Gradual improvement 3. Spot Price Level- After correction many markets at attractive entry level 4. Short Term Speculative Capital Flows- Sentiment has turned especially in the agricultural sector 5. Long Term Insitutional Capital Flows- Sustained Interest in Commodities 6. Market Technicals- Lately first technical buy signals Conclusion: Outlook has recently improved significantly
Our yearend forecast is still the same 10 Market Outlook Long term market analysis
Market Outlook Crude oil Cruide Oil globally attractive; in the US, especially in Cushing, still high excess inventories 11
Market Outlook Crude Oil Despite constant demand high increasing excess inventories 12
Market Outlook Gasoline US Gasoline consumption is now at the level of 2008 13
Market Outlook Natural Gas Enhanced storage capacity and high short-exposure argue against a price decline;  like in 2009 sudden price reversal is expected in 2010 14
Market Outlook Distillates US distillate consumption is disappointing given the economic upswing 15
Market Outlook Industrial Metals High correlation of industrialmetalsbased on a constant demand; average of the six at the LME trated metals approximantely +0.69 in 2010  16
Market Outlook Base Metals Rolling correlation of base metals and stock market currently near top 17
Market Outlook Base Metals Tin and copper - the only base metals showing market deficit in 2011 18
Market Outlook Copper Structural deficit of copper since turn of the millennium 19
Market Outlook Precious metal Price ratio between platinum and palladium again on a long-term average 20
Market Outlook Gold Gold benefited by the end of Q2 2010 from excessive risk aversion  21
Market Outlook Gold The original selling points for gold have disappeared In the year of 2000 Gold market in comparison In the year of 2010 1. Physical market balance High surplus Market deficit 2. Strategic positions 30% of production hedged Mines are unhedged Extreme net-long 3. Spekulative positions Net-short Excessively positive 4. Sentiment/Market penetration  Extremely negative Too high 5. Relative Value (CPI, Commod.) Too low 6. Macro-environment - Inflation risks Low/middle Low/middle - Deflation/systemic-risk Middle High 22
Market Outlook Gold Seasonal tendence of gold purchase at the futures market and ETFs in the last years 23
Market Outlook Softs Increasing Net-Long volume of the Non-Commercials in grain sector 24
Market Outlook Wheat Significant production losses compared to previous year caused by extreme weather events  25            USDA: expected declines in wheat production and exports in million tonnes Exports Production
Market Outlook Wheat Wheat stocks are still well above critically low level of 2007/08 26

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Speciality Metals Outlook

  • 1. day 1 - session 2: SPECIALITY METALS Outlook for commodity prices ChristophEibl– Managing Partner,Tiberius Asset Management
  • 2. GLOBAL MININGINVESTMENT CONFERENCE 2010 Lead sponsors: Media partners: Other sponsors & participating organisations:
  • 3. CommoditiesMarket Outlook Global Mining Investment Conference 2010
  • 4.
  • 5. Expertise in fixed-income management on the basis of institutional funds.
  • 6. 33 employees with wide-ranging experience in commodity trading, portfolio management and research.
  • 7. A model-supported, quantitative investment philosophy with a structured and transparent investment process.
  • 8. The firm’s core competence lies in the active management of long- only and long/shortportfolios.
  • 9. Total assets currently under management by the Tiberius Group: 2.2 billion USD
  • 10. Tiberius is regulated by FINMA (Swiss Banking Supervisory Authority)4
  • 11. Tiberius Leading Indicator Index - despite slight decline at a very high level 5 Market Outlook Cyclical trend
  • 12. Market Outlook Evaluation of forward curves Forward curves have improved steadily since Q2 2009 6
  • 13. Speculative sentiment has improved again 7 Market Outlook Short term capital flows
  • 14. Continued buying interest of institutional market participants 8 Market Outlook Long term capital flows
  • 15. Market Outlook Conclusion 9 The Lights for commodity investments mainly give positive signals 1. Ecomomic Cycle- Uptrend in industrial production is intact 2. Forward Curves- Gradual improvement 3. Spot Price Level- After correction many markets at attractive entry level 4. Short Term Speculative Capital Flows- Sentiment has turned especially in the agricultural sector 5. Long Term Insitutional Capital Flows- Sustained Interest in Commodities 6. Market Technicals- Lately first technical buy signals Conclusion: Outlook has recently improved significantly
  • 16. Our yearend forecast is still the same 10 Market Outlook Long term market analysis
  • 17. Market Outlook Crude oil Cruide Oil globally attractive; in the US, especially in Cushing, still high excess inventories 11
  • 18. Market Outlook Crude Oil Despite constant demand high increasing excess inventories 12
  • 19. Market Outlook Gasoline US Gasoline consumption is now at the level of 2008 13
  • 20. Market Outlook Natural Gas Enhanced storage capacity and high short-exposure argue against a price decline; like in 2009 sudden price reversal is expected in 2010 14
  • 21. Market Outlook Distillates US distillate consumption is disappointing given the economic upswing 15
  • 22. Market Outlook Industrial Metals High correlation of industrialmetalsbased on a constant demand; average of the six at the LME trated metals approximantely +0.69 in 2010 16
  • 23. Market Outlook Base Metals Rolling correlation of base metals and stock market currently near top 17
  • 24. Market Outlook Base Metals Tin and copper - the only base metals showing market deficit in 2011 18
  • 25. Market Outlook Copper Structural deficit of copper since turn of the millennium 19
  • 26. Market Outlook Precious metal Price ratio between platinum and palladium again on a long-term average 20
  • 27. Market Outlook Gold Gold benefited by the end of Q2 2010 from excessive risk aversion 21
  • 28. Market Outlook Gold The original selling points for gold have disappeared In the year of 2000 Gold market in comparison In the year of 2010 1. Physical market balance High surplus Market deficit 2. Strategic positions 30% of production hedged Mines are unhedged Extreme net-long 3. Spekulative positions Net-short Excessively positive 4. Sentiment/Market penetration Extremely negative Too high 5. Relative Value (CPI, Commod.) Too low 6. Macro-environment - Inflation risks Low/middle Low/middle - Deflation/systemic-risk Middle High 22
  • 29. Market Outlook Gold Seasonal tendence of gold purchase at the futures market and ETFs in the last years 23
  • 30. Market Outlook Softs Increasing Net-Long volume of the Non-Commercials in grain sector 24
  • 31. Market Outlook Wheat Significant production losses compared to previous year caused by extreme weather events 25 USDA: expected declines in wheat production and exports in million tonnes Exports Production
  • 32. Market Outlook Wheat Wheat stocks are still well above critically low level of 2007/08 26
  • 33.
  • 34. Potential for higher U.S. corn exports
  • 35. Global corn market tighter than soybeans
  • 36. Market Outlook Cotton Continuous improvement of the fundamental data due to rising demand 28
  • 37. 29 Market Outlook Conclusion Metals will stay in contango in the course of the next 12 months Backwardation Contango Market surplus High inventories Market deficit Low inventories
  • 38. Contact Tiberius Asset Management AG Baarerstr. 53 CH-6300 Zug Schweiz +41 41 560 00 81 (Phone) +41 41 560 00 82 (Fax) info@tiberiusgroup.com www.tiberiusgroup.com
  • 39.
  • 40. GLOBAL MININGINVESTMENT CONFERENCE 2010 Lead sponsors: Media partners: Other sponsors & participating organisations:

Notas do Editor

  1. Z:Tiberius_ServicesResearchModelleINDEXTiberius Commodity Beta-Timing (Leading Indicators).xlsxEngl. aktualisieren
  2. Z:Tiberius_ServicesResearchModelleTiberius Timing Modell3 Beta-Timing (CFTC).xlsx; „Chart_Invest_MAV_komb_eng“
  3. Z:Tiberius_ServicesResearchAuswertungenRohstoffindicesDJUBSDJAIG_Commodity_Daily.xlsChart_TotReturn_2010_eng