Nuricumbo + Partners is specialized on subjects such as financial due diligence for M&A, special audits, independent process assessments, debt/equity solutions, on-demand financial talent, anti-corruption initiatives, enterprise risk management, and corporate governance. We have become trusted business advisors for companies of all sizes, providing direct support to CEOs and CFOs in special or confidential projects.
2. GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -4.0% -4.4% -5.0%
2021 Economic Growth 6.2% 6.2% 5.6%
% of population vaccinated
(Est. 2021. At least one dose.)
60% 55% 48%
Covid Variants
Current vaccines prove to be effective
against Delta and other variants which
allows economic recovery to continue
Infections and mortality grow. Vaccines
are relatively effective. Economy remains
open despite the human cost.
Delta and other variants prove resistant
to current vaccines and lead to health
system breakdowns in several countries.
Crypto
Adoption continues on a global basis.
Regulation strikes the proper balance
between risks and opportunities.
Adoption by some Central Banks.
Adoption continues but at a slow pace.
The good mix of regulation and
competition makes the industry more
credible and brings even further
investment and innovation.
Crypto bubble bursts, creating a financial
crisis and a reputational backslide
against everything crypto. Progress in
adoption is severely impacted.
USA - China
Despite the natural conflicts between an
emerging power and a hegemonic power,
cooperation prevails.
"New Cold War" develops but with
different levels and nuances.
Taiwan and Hong Kong become hot spots
for conflict. Fast escalation into military
intervention and cyberwar.
China markets
Issues with technology companies are
resolved relatively quickly without long-
term impact on financial markets.
Chinese government tries to regulate
more proactively certain economic
sectors that could challenge its power,
such as technology.
Efforts to regulate technology companies
are only the beginning. Other sectors
follow as China tries harder to ascertain
its power internally and externally.
15%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 1
Optimistic 60%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 2
Neutral 25%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
3. LATIN AMERICA PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -6.5% -7.7% -9.0%
2021 Economic Growth 6.2% 5.9% 4.0%
Unemployment 9.5% 10.6% 12.5%
PIB per Capita
(USD per annum)
10,000 9,000 7,000
Inequality
(Gini)
0.45 0.47 0.53
Herd Immunity Early 2023 Mid 2023 2025
15%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 1
Optimistic 50%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 2
Neutral 35%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
4. NORTH AMERICA PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall
Mexico: -7.5%
USA: -4.0%
Canada: -6.5%
Mexico: -8.5%
USA: -4.3%
Canada: -7.1%
Mexico: -10.0%
USA: -5.0%
Canada: -7.5%
2021 Economic Growth
Mexico: 6.4%
USA: 7.2%
Canada: 6.6%
Mexico: 6.1%
USA: 7.0%
Canada: 6.2%
Mexico: 4.0%
USA: 5.2%
Canada: 4.8%
Time to Herd Immunity
Mexico: 200 days
USA: 85 days
Mexico: 250 days
USA: 90 days
Canada: Achieved
Mexico: 350 days
USA: 200 days
USMCA
There are controversies. Some
investments are canceled but many
others go ahead.
Mexico loses the opportunity to attract
new investments and to seize the “near-
shoring” wave.
Labor, environmental and regulatory
disputes generate a business
environment full of conflict.
Cooperation
The three governments agree on some
sort of pragmatic agenda. However, little
progress in the next three years.
USA and Canada agree on a bilateral
agenda. Mexico is marginalized and
cooperation opportunities are lost.
Negative elements dominate the agenda
with Mexico, such as drug trafficking,
crime, and political instability.
Energy Policy
Mexico’s Congress rescues some parts of
the 2013 Energy Reform and prevents
further impact on Mexico’s credibility.
Mexico becomes less attractive for
energy investments. Pemex and CFE
become the biggest financial risks for
Mexico.
Major legal disputes under USMCA rules
impact Mexico’s credibility.
20%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 1
Optimistic 50%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 2
Neutral 30%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
5. MEXICO PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -7.5% -8.5% -11.0%
2021 Economic Growth 6.4% 6.1% 4.0%
Interest Rate 3.25% 4.00% 5.00%
Inflation 5.0% 5.8% 6.5%
Exchange Rate
(USD/MXN)
19.50 21.50 24.0
Governance
Political opposition takes shape and
creates an effective narrative that starts
to build momentum towards 2024,
ensuring more balanced power sharing.
Morena project loses steam, which
reduces likelihood of radical actions.
Other political options start to emerge.
Governance in certain states and cities
remains complex.
AMLO’s government is challenged by
organized crime. Security situation
deteriorates. Little or no achievements
in last 3 years of term.
“Sexenio perdido”.
Pemex
Pemex without crisis. Sovereign credit
rating remains with negative outlook but
without detonating a crisis.
Pemex financial bomb keeps ticking.
Sovereign credit rating deteriorates with
limited impact on financial markets.
Pemex becomes a major issue and there
is significant impact on sovereign credit
rating and financial markets. Strong
devaluation.
15%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 1
Optimistic 50%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 2
Neutral 35%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
6. $4.97 $5.21 $5.15
$0.00
$2.50
$5.00
$7.50
June July August
Brazil
Exchange Rates
$3,778.44 $3,858.63 $3,824.49
$0.00
$1,500.00
$3,000.00
$4,500.00
June July August
Colombia
$19.94 $19.88 $20.08
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
June July August
Mexico
$3.98 $3.92 $4.08
$0.00
$1.50
$3.00
$4.50
June July August
Peru
Source: Exchange Rates UK, 2021.
*PEN / USD
*MXN / USD
*USD / CLP
*BRL / USD
*COP / USD
$732.28
$756.65 $775.85
$0.00
$300.00
$600.00
$900.00
June July August
Chile
*CLP / USD
$95.71 $96.71 $97.74
$0.00
$40.00
$80.00
$120.00
June July August
Argentina
*ARS / USD
7. Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
48.80% 50.20% 51.80%
0.00%
15.00%
30.00%
45.00%
60.00%
May June July
Argentina
Inflation Rate
8.06% 8.35% 8.99%
0.00%
2.50%
5.00%
7.50%
April May June
Brazil
3.25%
3.81%
4.95%
0.00%
1.20%
2.40%
3.60%
4.80%
6.00%
June July August
Peru
3.30% 3.63% 3.97%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
May June July
Colombia
3.60% 3.80%
4.50%
0.00%
1.50%
3.00%
4.50%
6.00%
May June July
Chile
5.89% 5.88% 5.81%
0.00%
2.50%
5.00%
7.50%
May June July
Mexico
8. $42,494 $42,503 $46,094
$0
$15,000
$30,000
$45,000
$60,000
June July July
Argentina
International Reserves
$350,996 $353,448 $352,486
$0
$120,000
$240,000
$360,000
$480,000
May June July
Brazil
$59,144 $58,917 $58,878
$0
$18,000
$36,000
$54,000
$72,000
May June July
Colombia
$47,847 $44,954 $48,767
$0
$13,000
$26,000
$39,000
$52,000
June July August
Chile
$192,886 $193,424 $205,391
$0
$60,000
$120,000
$180,000
$240,000
June July August
Mexico
$71,892 $71,501 $74,425
$0
$25,000
$50,000
$75,000
$100,000
June July August
Peru
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
9. 62,372 66,005
76,452
0
18,000
36,000
54,000
72,000
90,000
June July August
Argentina
Capital Markets
126,802 121,801 118,781
0
35,000
70,000
105,000
140,000
June July August
Brazil
1,249 1,237 1,320
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
June July August
Colombia
50,290 50,868 53,305
0
16,000
32,000
48,000
64,000
June July August
Mexico
4,334 4,223 4,488
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
June July August
Chile
*IPSA:IND
*MEXBOL:IND
*SPBLPGPT:IND
*MERVAL:IND
*IBOV:IND
*COLCAP:IND
Source: Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, 2021.
18,851 17,672 17,654
0
7,000
14,000
21,000
June July August
Peru
*SPBLPGPT:IND
10. Foreign Direct Investmet
$11,873
$6,663
$4,019.00
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
2018 2019 2020
Argentina
$59,802 $65,386
$24,778
$0
$30,000
$60,000
$90,000
2018 2019 2020
Brazil
$11,535
$14,313
$8,100
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
2018 2019 2020
Colombia
$7,736
$12,499
$8,386
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
$16,000
2018 2019 2020
Chile
$33,921 $34,244
$27,786
$0
$12,000
$24,000
$36,000
2018 2019 2020
Mexico
$6,488
$8,892
$982
$0
$3,000
$6,000
$9,000
$12,000
2018 2019 2020
Peru
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and World Investment Report, UNCTAD, 2021.
*Inward, Million U.S. Dollars
11. Credit Ratings
Argentina
CCC
(March 9, 2021)
Source: Fitch Ratings, 2021.
Brazil
BB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(May 27, 2021)
Colombia
BB+
With STABLE Outlook
(July 1, 2021)
Chile
A-
With STABLE Outlook
(March 24, 2021)
Mexico
BBB-
With STABLE Outlook
(May 17, 2021)
Peru
BBB+
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 15, 2020)
12. Credit Ratings
Argentina
Ca
With STABLE Outlook
(September 28, 2020)
Source: Moody’s Investors Service, 2021.
Brazil
Ba2
With STABLE Outlook
(May 15, 2020)
Colombia
Baa2
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 3, 2020)
Chile
A1
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(August 25, 2020)
Mexico
Baa1
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(April 29, 2021)
Peru
Baa1
With STABLE Outlook
(September 1, 2021)
13. Credit Ratings
Argentina
CCC+
With STABLE Outlook
(April 15, 2021)
Source: Standard & Poor’s, 2021.
Brazil
BB-
With STABLE Outlook
(June 2, 2021)
Colombia
BB+
With STABLE Outlook
(May 19, 2021)
Chile
A
With STABLE Outlook
(March 24, 2021)
Mexico
BBB
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(June 15, 2021)
Peru
BBB+
With STABLE Outlook
(November 23, 2020)
14. Country Presidents
Argentina
President: Alberto Fernandez
Birth: April 2, 1959
In Office Since: December 10, 2019
Political Party: Frente de Todos
Brazil
President: Jair Bolsonaro
Birth: March 21, 1955
In Office Since: January 1, 2019
Political Party: PSL
Colombia
President: Ivan Duque Marquez
Birth: August 1, 1976
In Office Since: August 7, 2018
Political Party: Centro Democratico
Chile
President: Sebastian Piñera E.
Birth: December 1, 1949
In Office Since: March 11, 2018
Political Party: Independent
Mexico
President: Andres Manuel Lopez O.
Birth: November 13, 1953
In Office Since: December 1, 2018
Political Party: Morena
Peru
President: Pedro Castillo Terrones
Birth: October 19, 1969
In Office Since: July 28, 2021
Political Party: Peru Libre
15. CHINA AND RUSSIA HAVE DEVELOPED STRONG
VACCINE DIPLOMACY PROGRAMS
16. EL SALVADOR IS THE FIRST COUNTRY IN THE
WORLD TO RECOGNIZE BITCOIN AS LEGAL TENDER
24. COMPANY
PROFIT
Trusted Business Advisors
• Ad-hoc Training Programs.
• Policies and Procedures.
• NOM-035.
• Process Improvement
• Project Management.
• Financial Due Diligence.
• Legal Due Diligence.
• IT Due Diligence.
• Valuation Models.
• Management of Equity Sources.
• Financial Planning & Analysis.
• Fraud Prevention and Investigations.
• Fraud Hotline.
• Assessment of Tax Compliance.
• Assessment of Regulatory
Compliance.
• CEOs on an interim basis.
• Strategic Planning.
• Investor Relations.
• Leadership.
• Focus on implementation and execution.
• CFOs on an interim basis.
• Management of Financing Sources.
• Financial Transformation.
• Profitability Enhancement.
• Risk Analysis.
• Assessment of Internal Control.
• Annual Audit Program.
• Audit Program Execution.
• Reporting of Findings and
Remediation.
Other
We can design innovative
consulting solutions, with
highly experienced
consultants who bring a
valuable external viewpoint.
CEO As A Service
CFO As A Service
Internal Audit As A Service
M&A
Let’s schedule a meeting to talk.
Email: contacto@nuricumbo.com
WhatsApp: +52.55.5453.6309
Control/Compliance As a Service
We work with companies of all sizes in special or confidential projects
25. COMPANY
PROFIT
CFO As A Service
For more information, email us at
contacto@nuricumbo.com or whatsApp at
55.5453.6309
2
5
All the benefits of a trustable and experienced CFO
without having to hire it.
Experience Flexibility
Interim
Team
Support
Our CFO Service can be started immediately.
No maximum or minimum time commitments.
We can work with your company for the time
strictly necessary to resolve your needs.
Immediate response
Our CFO Service is supported by our whole
team of experts, which brings specific
knowledge in areas such as insurance, audit,
fraud, risk management, financing, investor
relations, treasury, tax, etc.
Multidisciplinary approach
Solid professionals
Safe Hiring
After a certain time, you can decide if
you would like to hire one of our
consultants as a permanent CFO. This
results in a very safe hiring, since you
will make this decision once technical
capabilities and organizational skills
have been proven.
All our consultants have more than 20
years of experience in complex business
environments, including debt
restructurings, financial
transformations, turnarounds, and
M&A.
Our solution can provide the right leadership at the right time,
supported by our multidisciplinary team of professional consultants.
26. PROPUESTA EN CIBERSEGURIDAD
40% de las empresas han sufrido ciberataques en el último año. Identificar y contener un evento de ciberseguridad puede tomar hasta nueve
meses. El primer ataque de Ransomware se remonta a 1989. La mayoría de los ataques comienzan con un correo de phishing. Actualmente el
costo promedio de un ataque de Ransomware es de $4.4M USD. El 90% de los ciberataques se pueden prevenir.
Nuestra solución es el resultado de la alianza entre tres consultorías
especializadas. El proceso comienza con un diagnóstico de sus prácticas
preventivas actuales, para determinar riesgos y oportunidades que pudieran
tener impacto en su organización.
Posteriormente acompañamos a su empresa en la remediación de los gaps
encontrados. Nuestro equipo de expertos está integrado por profesionistas con
experiencia en auditoría, sistemas, prevención de fraudes, procesos, riesgos y
desarrollo organizacional, lo que permite contar con un punto de vista
multidisciplinario.
Finalmente, a través de nuestro socio experto en seguros, ayudamos a su
organización a seleccionar la póliza de seguro contra ataques de
ciberseguridad que mejor se adapte a sus necesidades, cerrando el círculo de
protección integral para su empresa.
Fuente: Lumu Technologies, Forrester Research, Gartner.
Platiquemos
Whastapp: 55.5453.6309
Email: contacto@nuricumbo.com
27. Strategic Alliance: DigiPro
2
7
Who is DigiPro?
Mexican Company leader in the process of
streamlining and digitalization using
proprietary state-of-the-art technology
and knowledge, with strong credentials in
financial sector, and several ready-to-use
solutions that can significantly accelerate
digital transformation iniciatives.
100+
6
50+
Solution highlights:
Multichannel Biometrics
BPM Analytics BI
API Connectivity ICR / OCR
Cloud Security
Scalability eSignature
Fully integrated ECM Platform
Six different platforms proven to
add value to customers:
- Banking
- Fintech
- Microfinancing
- Insurance
- Property Management
- Government
Multi-disciplinary consultants
Combined years of experience
Main Ready-to-Use Solutions
DigiPro and Nuricumbo + Partners can help your
Company in many ways:
- Process Automation - Know Your Customer
- Fully Mobile Digital Onboarding - Business Process Outsourcing
- Fraud Investigations - Financial Due Diligence
- AntiMoney Laundering - Regulatory Compliance
Would you like to know
more?
Let’s schedule a call.
29. Land Area
Source: The World Bank, 2018.
2,736,690
8,358,140
1,109,500
743,532
1,943,950
1,280,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Kilometers
30. Ease of Doing Business Index
126 124
67
59 60
76
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations
35. Exports of Goods and Services
16.6% 16.9%
13.7%
31.5%
40.1%
22.3%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2020.
Note: Percentage of GDP
37. Gross Domestic Product
$383,066.9
$1,444,733.2
$271,346.8 $252,940.0
$1,076,163.3
$202,014.3
$0
$300,000
$600,000
$900,000
$1,200,000
$1,500,000
$1,800,000
$2,100,000
$2,400,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Millions, Current US$
38. GDP Per Capita
$20,767.6
$14,836.3 $14,565.4
$25,067.7
$18,833.1
$11,879.2
$0.0
$5,000.0
$10,000.0
$15,000.0
$20,000.0
$25,000.0
$30,000.0
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2020.
Note: (i) PPP; (ii) Current International $
44. Government Expenditure on Education
5.5%
6.3%
4.5%
5.4%
4.5%
3.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019.
Note: Percentage of GDP
45. Labor Force
Source: The World Bank, 2020.
19,191.5
99,843.0
24,802.3
8,860.2
53,978.9
16,181.9
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Thousands
46. Labor Force (Female)
43.3% 43.9% 42.7% 42.4%
38.5%
45.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force
48. Energy Use
Source: The World Bank, 2014 - 2015.
2,030
1,496
724
2,006
1,537
790
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita
50. Population Living in Slums
14.7%
16.3%
27.8%
8.8%
16.0%
33.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2018.
Note: Percentage of Urban Population
52. Bank Capital to Assets Ratio
13.5%
10.2%
17.0%
7.5%
11.0%
12.9%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage
53. Bank Nonperforming Loans
to Total Gross Loans
5.7%
3.1%
4.2%
2.1% 2.1%
3.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage
54. Deposit Interest Rate
29.3%
2.2%
3.4%
0.9% 1.5% 1.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2020.
Note: Percentage
55. Lending Interest Rate
29.4% 29.0%
9.9%
4.2%
6.3%
12.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2020.
Note: Percentage
56. Listed Domestic Companies
Source: The World Bank, 2019 - 2020.
91
345
65
194
140
199
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Total
57. Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic
Companies
$39,393.54
$988,374.32
$106,315.20
$184,549.42
$399,616.70
$87,092.13
$0.0
$200,000.0
$400,000.0
$600,000.0
$800,000.0
$1,000,000.0
$1,200,000.0
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019 - 2020.
Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$
58. Strength of Legal Rights Index
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
2 2
11
4
10
7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong
60. WE ARE READY TO HELP YOU AND YOUR BUSINESS.
EMAIL
contacto@nuricumbo.com
WHATSAPP
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