Steve Sawyer GWEC at NRGsystems: Global Wind Update
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GWEC's Steve Sawyer reminds us that a sustainable future for the wind industry is based on thinking about it, doing it, and then repeating what works.
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Steve Sawyer GWEC at NRGsystems: Global Wind Update
- 1. Beijing | Brussels | London Global Wind Power Update Steve Sawyer, Secretary General August 9, 2011 NRG Systems HQ Hinesburg, VT
- 2. Beijing | Brussels | London C0 Members C2 Members Associations GWEC – Uniting the global wind industry and its representative associations
- 3. Beijing | Brussels | London $96bn in wind power $96bn in (up by wind 31%) power (up by 31%)
- 4. Beijing | Brussels | London Moving East, and South $96bn in wind power (up by 31%)
- 5. Beijing | Brussels | London
- 6. Beijing | Brussels | London
- 7. Beijing | Brussels | London 2010 growth: 24.1% 14 yr avg growth: 28.3% 7
- 8. Beijing | Brussels | London 2010 growth: -0.5% 14 yr avg growth: 29.2%
- 9. Beijing | Brussels | London
- 10. Beijing | Brussels | London
- 11. Beijing | Brussels | London
- 12. Beijing | Brussels | London
- 13. Beijing | Brussels | London
- 14. Beijing | Brussels | London
- 15. Beijing | Brussels | London % of global electricity supply $96bn in wind power (up by 31%) 15
- 16. Beijing | Brussels | London Source: http://www.gwec.net/index.php?id=181
- 17. Beijing | Brussels | London Development of Costs Feb ‘11: Bloomberg NEF says H2 2010 turbine prices were below 1 million Euro/MW $96bn in wind power (up by 31%) 17
- 18. Beijing | Brussels | London Offshore still small ~3,060 MW Cumulative Capacity: 2% of total installed wind power capacity ~1,000 MW 2010 Market: ~2.5% of annual wind power market 2020: ~70 GW - 10% cumulative capacity
- 19. Beijing | Brussels | London 2010 European offshore wind power market • 308 new offshore wind turbines installed and connected • Investment in offshore wind farms totalled €2.6 billion • 883 MW in total – increased by 51% on the previous year • During 2010, work was carried on 18 offshore wind farms among which: - Eight wind farms were fully completed and grid connected - One wind farm partially completed and grid connected - One wind farm completed but not grid connected • Average water depth: 17.4 m in 2010 • Average distance to shore: 27.1km
- 20. Beijing | Brussels | London Cumulative European Offshore Market 1991 – 2010 • 1,136 turbines installed and grid connected • 2,946 MW in total • 45 wind farms in nine European countries • Produces 11.5 TWh of electricity in a normal year • Average wind turbine size 3.2 MW
- 21. Beijing | Brussels | London Market outlook: 2011 and beyond • January to June 2011: 101 offshore turbines totalling 348.1 MW fully grid connected. Overall 11 offshore wind farms under construction which when completed will account for 2,844 MW. • As of 30 June 2011, there are 1,247 offshore wind turbines fully grid connected with a total capacity of 3,294 MW in 49 wind farms spread over 9 countries. EWEA forecasts that between 1,000 and 1,500 MW of new offshore wind capacity will be fully grid connected in Europe during 2011 • 19,000 MW are currently fully consented • 150,000 MW announced projects
- 22. Beijing | Brussels | London Future European offshore wind power market Scenarios 2020 EWEA baseline scenario: 40 GW EWEA high scenario: 55 GW National (NREAP) targets: 43 GW 2030 EWEA baseline scenario: 150 GW
- 23. Beijing | Brussels | London EU Offshore 2011 – 2020 (MW) • 2011: annual installations of 1.5 GW • 2020: annual installations of 6.9 GW • 2020: cumulative installations of 40 GW Source: EWEA
- 24. Beijing | Brussels | London EU Offshore 2021 – 2030 (MW) • 2021: annual installations of 7.7 GW • 2030: annual installations of 13.6 GW • 2030: cumulative installations of 150 Source: GW EWEA
- 25. Beijing | Brussels | London US Projects Under development - 1 with federal lease (Cape Wind, MA) - Not much before 2015 - Enormous Potential Source: AWEA
- 26. Beijing | Brussels | London The Prize - mean of 8.3 m/s (at 80 m height); 7.9 m/s in estuaries; - excluded major bird flyways, shipping lanes, military zones, etc; - resource using current technology (Siemens 3.6MW or RePower 5MW) - 0-20m = ~60GW; - 20-50m = ~120GW; - 50-100m = ~150GW – - total delivered power ~300GW continuous Kempton, W., C. L. Archer, A. Dhanju, R. W. Garvine, and M. Z. Jacobson (2007), Large CO2 reductions via offshore wind power matched to inherent - total current demand for coastal states storage in energy enduses,Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02817, doi: 10.1029/ 2006GL028016. from MA to NC (incl DC) = ~73GW
- 27. Beijing | Brussels | London Post-Fukushima Japan A new beginning for wind in Japan…both on and offshore? Now famous ‘battle proof’ Kamisu near-shore wind farm survived direct hit from tsunami in March. Projects also under investigation in Tokyo Bay
- 28. Beijing | Brussels | London Many challenges to reduce costs: Source: EWEA
- 29. Beijing | Brussels | London ADVANTAGES Hywind Higher winds further out Relatively robust and cost efficient design Minimal offshore work Independent of location, less conflicts Minimal land or sea-scape issues SPECIFICATIONS Turbine size: 2.3 MW Turbine weight: 138 tons Turbine height: 65 m Rotor diameter: 82.4 m Draft hull: 100 m Displacement: 5300 m3 Diameter at water line: 6m Diameter submerged body: 8.3 m Water depths: 120-700 m Mooring: 3 lines
- 30. Beijing | Brussels | London Conclusions Offshore is still small % of global market, and will likely remain so throughout this decade; Many challenges: Cost, OM, Standards, Supply chains, vessels, etc. Europe will develop ca 40 GW of projects China will develop: targets 5 GW by 2015, and 30 by 2020 Others (Japan, US, Canada, India, Brazil) uncertain Onshore wind is now cost competitive in most markets with most conventional new-build. When will the same be true for offshore?
- 31. Beijing | Brussels | London Conclusions - 2 Market conditions: - Asian market driving global growth - European market solid and steady - North America uncertain and weak at the moment - Hopeful signs in Latin America, Africa - Downward price pressure continues - Trade barriers/new protectionism? - International commodity price volatility returns with economic recovery
- 32. Beijing | Brussels | London Conclusions - 3 A global climate agreement will be fundamental for wind power to achieve its maximum potential, but for the short term: Uncertainty: - in international political landscape - in the future of the carbon markets - in ‘new’ climate-related funds Focus on national/regional legislation and markets Market drivers all still in place, and increasingly prominent: energy security; cost stability; macroeconomic security; local economic development and job creation; local environment and climate
- 33. Beijing | Brussels | London Global Water Crisis Water Intensities of Power Generation (m3/MWh) Source: http://www.vestas.com/en/about-vestas/strategy/political-affairs/water-energy-climate-nexus.aspx
- 34. Beijing | Brussels | London For more information: Thank you! Steve Sawyer steve.sawyer@gwec.net
- 35. Beijing | Brussels | London $96bn in wind power (up by 31%)