Here are the steps to forecast monthly sales for Kristy Family Jewelry Store:
a) Based on the chart, the monthly percentage for Jewelry Stores is:
Jan: 6.1%, Feb: 8.8%, Mar: 7.1%, Apr: 7%, May: 9.3%, Jun: 7.4%, Jul: 7.5%, Aug: 7.7%, Sep: 6.6%, Oct: 6.9%, Nov: 7.9%, Dec: 17.7%
b) The annual sales forecast from Step 1 is $476,055
c) To calculate monthly sales:
Jan: 6.1% of $476,055 is $29,062
Feb:
2. Your Speaker
• Nate Kristy, Market Development Manager
Kristy
at The Atlanta Journal-Constitution |
Cox Media Group
• Consults and collaborates with local
businesses on strategic marketing
campaign development Head shot image
• 10+ years experience in B2B and B2C
marketing across a variety of business
sizes and industries in the Atlanta market
3. Why Build A Marketing Plan?
• Serves as your business roadmap.
• Invokes analysis of your business
business,
customers and competitors.
• Helps define your objectives, tactics
and timing
timing.
• Uncovers best media for your budget
and needs.
• Positions you to understand return on
investment (ROI).
Manta, an online community for promoting and
connecting small b i
ti ll business, recently f d th t
tl found that
nearly half (47%) of polled small business
owners have prioritized marketing and sales as
their top spend.
p p
Source: Manta Pulse of Small Business 2011 Survey
4. Getting Started On A Plan
Draft a “big picture” document with annual,
big picture annual
quarterly, monthly goals.
Study your sales trends/cycle/history –
yy y y
allocate ad dollars and strategy accordingly.
Analyze your inventory – consider
promoting items based on time of year
time-of-year
demand, product cycles/lines, etc.
Set a schedule to revisit plan and repeat
p p
analysis.
5. Critical Components
for Analysis
• Your customers/target market
g
• Your competitors
• Your selling environment
• Your d t /
Y products/servicesi
Including key timeframes for creating awareness
and pricing strategy.
• Your advertising budget
• Suggested Min. = 3% of gross sales
• Your key messages for consumers
consumers.
6. Marketing Pitfalls &
Misconceptions
Mi ti
• “I don’t have a target audience.”
• “I can save some money if I do advertising myself.”
• “I ran an ad, it didn’t work.”
• “What’s
“Wh t’ a call t action?”
ll to ti ?”
• “I don’t need a budget.”
• “I spend where I get the best rate ”
I rate.
• “I can do one ad that appeals to everyone.”
• p
“I advertise there because it’s the cheapest.”
7. Why Budget for Marketing?
• Puts you in control of your spend and ROI.
• Saves time.
• Makes it easy to eliminate poorly-timed/weaker
promotions.
• Uncovers cost-saving (or free!) ad
opportunities
opport nities
(e.g. co-op advertising through product
manufacturer)
• Generates better consumer response
and revenue results!
8. Budgeting Pitfalls
• Basing it on past habits
habits,
personal experience or
just whatever ‘cash is
cash
in the register.’
• F ili t strategize
Failing to t t i
around evolving
audiences,
audiences advertising
options and markets.
9. Simple Budgeting Guidelines
• D
Determine projected sales and then apply a
i j d l d h l
percentage of sales for your advertising.
• Make one budget for your entire company
or create separate budgets for each
department/product line.
• Analyze your sales by quarter or
month for seasonality, ups and
downs, etc. to distribute your
, y
budget accordingly.
11. Simple Four-Step Ad Plan
Four Step
1. Forecast your annual sales.
2. Forecast your monthly sales.
3. Forecast your monthly
advertising spend.
4. Determine ad schedule and
option for each month.
12. Step 1
Forecasting Annual Sales
i
a. Find the average sales for y industry according
g your y g
to store square footage (see chart).
b. Determine your store square footage and multiple
it by sales-per-square-foot figure.
c. Use resulting figure as
your annual sales forecast.
13. ANNUAL SALES PER SQUARE FOOT OF STORES IN US SHOPPING CENTERS
Super Regional Shopping Regional Shopping U.S. Super Community / Neighborhood Shopping
Centers Centers Community Shopping Centers
Median Median
Median Sales Median GLA Sales Per Sq. Median GLA Sales Per Sq. Median GLA Median Sales Median GLA
Median Sales Median GLA Sales Per Sq Median GLA Sales Per Sq Median GLA Median Sales Median GLA
Type of Store Per Sq. Ft. in Sq. Ft. Ft. in Sq. Ft. Ft. in Sq. Ft. Per Sq. Ft. in Sq. Ft.
General Merchandise $166.70 137,000 $137.95 114,000 $149.50 20,000 $102.97 8,000
Food $431.81 1,000 $462.27 1,100 $412.21 39,400 $430.05 32,000
Food Service $628.27 800 $568.97 1,100 $314.12 2,400 $266.65 1,800
Clothing and Accessories $366.18 3,700 $347.11 4,000 $232.68 4,600 $155.59 4,000
Shoes $359.63 2,300 $344.36 2,700 $192.73 3,300 $141.51 3,000
Home Furnishings $370.03 3,600 $325.57 8,600 $209.28 6,700 4,200
Home Appliances/Music $371.82 3,100 $414.66 3,500 $302.20 2,600 2,400
Building Materials/Hardware $388.65 8,100 4,100
Automotive 21,000 $237.92
$ 6,000 $386.92
$ 4,000
Hobby/Special Interest $395.04 2,200 $384.05 2,200 $219.85 3,200 $199.45 1,700
Gifts/Specialty $287.22 2,500 $206.32 4,000 $170.42 4,500 $127.08 4,000
Jewelry $958.99 1,300 $902.40 1,200 $303.37 1,600 $317.37 1,500
Liquor $396.27 3,100 3,200
Drugs $341.40
$341 40 6,800
6 800 $429.07
$429 07 11,000
11 000 $429.47
$429 47 12,500
12 500
Other Retail $496.64 1,200 $401.25 1,700 $247.53 2,000 $217.25 2,100
Personal Services $302.17 1,200 $262.55 1,500 $176.87 1,500 $162.50 1,400
Entertainment/Community $94.11 19,600 $77.46 26,300 $76.61 4,200 3,000
Financial 60 1,400 2,300 1,500
Source: Dollars & Cents of Shopping Centers / The SCORE 2008, Urban Institute, 2008.
pp g / , ,
Square‐foot figures (rounded to nearest hundred).
Definitions:
Gross Leasable Area (GLA) ‐ the total floor area designated for the tenants' occupancy and exlcusive use
Super‐regional shopping center: typical mall, usually about 1 million square feet, with three or more large anchor stores
Regional center: smaller mall, typically 500,000 square feet with one or two anchor stores
Community center: strip center with 100,000 to 300,000 square feet
Neighborhood center: typical strip center, built around a supermarket, with a norm of less than 100,000 square feet
14. Step 1: Forecasting Annual Sales
Kristy Family Jewelry Store
K i F il J l S
a. Average Sales Per Square Foot (Per Chart)
$317.37
b. Store Square F t
b St S Footage (Measured)
(M d)
60 x 25 Ft. = 1,500 Sq. Ft.
c.
c Annual Sales
$317.37 x 1,500 = $476,055
15. Step 2
Forecasting Monthly Sales
i
a.
a Use chart to get the monthly
percentage by store type;
multiply each month’s
month s
percentage by the forecasted
annual sales figure from step 1.
b. Resulting figure is your monthly
sales forecast.
c. Repeat for each month.
16. TOTAL RETAIL SALES BY TYPE OF STORE
TOTAL RETAIL SALES BY TYPE OF STORE
Percentage of Year's Sales Each Month by Type of Store
Store Type JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Appliances, TV and Other Electronics Stores 8.0 8.1 7.7 7.3 8.2 7.9 8.1 8.4 7.4 7.1 9.4 12.4
Automobile Dealers 8.6 9.0 9.9 9.3 9.5 8.7 8.7 8.9 7.7 6.9 6.0 6.7
Automotive Parts, Accessories and Tire Stores 7.4 7.6 8.2 8.4 8.7 8.8 9.0 8.6 8.4 8.9 7.9 8.1
Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores
Beer Wine and Liquor Stores 6.7
67 7.0
70 7.5
75 7.6
76 8.7
87 8.3
83 8.9
89 8.8
88 8.0
80 8.5
85 8.6
86 11.3
11 3
Bookstores 13.5 6.8 6.0 5.9 6.8 6.3 6.6 14.5 8.9 6.2 6.2 12.1
Building Materials and Supplies Dealers 7.1 7.0 7.9 9.2 9.9 9.4 9.5 8.7 8.5 8.7 7.2 6.9
Clothing Stores, Family 6.3 6.7 8.0 7.6 8.5 7.8 8.5 9.1 7.3 8.0 9.5 12.8
Clothing Stores, Men's 7.2 7.1 8.1 8.4 9.0 8.5 7.4 7.9 7.6 8.0 8.5 12.2
Clothing Stores, Women's 6.6 7.2 8.7 8.9 9.4 8.3 7.7 8.1 7.9 7.9 8.5 10.9
Computer and Software Stores
Computer and Software Stores 8.0 7.9 8.2 7.5 7.4 7.9 8.0 8.1 7.4 7.7 9.3 12.7
Department Stores, Conventional and National Chain 6.4 7.2 7.9 7.7 8.4 7.7 7.4 8.0 6.9 7.6 10.1 14.7
Department Stores, Discount 6.9 7.2 8.0 7.4 8.4 8.2 8.0 8.4 7.0 7.9 9.6 13.1
Drinking Places 7.2 7.4 8.3 8.1 8.6 8.4 9.4 9.2 8.4 8.6 8.1 8.4
Furniture Stores 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.3 8.8 8.0 8.4 8.9 7.9 7.7 7.9 8.0
Gasoline Stations 7.7 7.5 8.4 8.7 9.7 10.0 10.3 9.7 8.9 8.0 5.9 5.1
y
Grocery Stores 8.1 7.8 8.3 8.0 8.7 8.3 8.7 8.6 8.1 8.4 8.4 8.6
Home Furnishing Stores 7.6 7.4 7.9 7.9 8.5 8.4 8.9 8.4 7.9 8.2 8.8 10.2
Jewelry Stores 6.1 8.8 7.1 7.0 9.3 7.4 7.5 7.7 6.6 6.9 7.9 17.7
Pharmacies and Drug Stores 8.3 8.2 8.4 8.1 8.5 8.1 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.5 8.1 9.4
Restaurants, Full Service 7.7 7.9 8.6 8.2 8.9 8.5 8.6 8.9 7.9 8.2 8.0 8.6
Restaurants, Limited Service 7.7 7.7 8.4 8.3 8.8 8.5 8.8 8.9 8.1 8.5 8.0 8.3
Shoe Stores 6.5 7.5 8.6 8.3 8.9 7.9 8.2 10.7 7.3 7.7 8.1 10.3
Sporting Goods Stores 6.3 6.6 8.1 8.1 8.9 9.3 9.0 9.7 7.4 6.7 7.6 12.4
Warehouse Clubs and Superstores 7.3 7.5 8.1 7.7 8.8 8.4 8.4 8.6 7.6 8.1 8.9 10.6
Source: Monthly Retail and Food Service Sales, 2008 Sales, http//www.censusgov/retail/mrts/www/data/excel/mrtssales92‐09.xls
17. Step 2: Forecasting Monthly Sales
Kristy F il J
K i t Family Jewelry Store
l St
a. January Percentage of Year’s Sales (Per Chart) =
6.1%
6 1%
b. Annual Sales (Per Step 1) = $476,055
c. Monthly Sales
Jan: $476,055 x .061 = $29,040
(Repeat for Each Month through Dec)
18. Step 3
Forecasting Monthly
Ad Investment
a.
a Find corresponding ad to sales ratio for your store/industry
ad-to-sales
(see chart).
b. Multiply your forecasted sales per month by the ratio.
c. Repeat for each month.
19. ADVERTISING TO SALES RATIOS
% of Annual Sales % of Annual Sales % of Annual Sales % of Annual Sales
Spent on Spent on Spent on Spent on
Commodity or Class of Business Advertising Commodity or Class of Business Advertising Commodity or Class of Business Advertising Commodity or Class of Business Advertising
Engineering, Accounting, Research,
Air Courier Services (1) 0.9% Management and Related Services (1) 0.2 Jewelry Stores (1) 5.4 Shoe Stores (1) 2.3
Amusement and Recreation Services (1) 5.0 Family Clothing Stores (1) 1.9 Leather and Leather Products (1) 2.1 Skilled Nursing Care Facilities (1) 0.4
Lumber and Other Building Materials (Retail)
Apparel and Accessory Stores (1) 5.2 Furniture Stores (1) 8.7 (1) 1.7 Sporting Goods Stores (6)
pp ( )
Appliance and Electronics (2) Grocery Stores (1)
y ( ) 0.8 Malt Beverages (1)
g ( ) 10.0 Full Line, <$2 Million
, $ 2.0
Hardware, Plumbing, Heating Equipment
Appliance Dealers 3.2 (Wholesale) (1) 0.1 Mortgage Bankers and Loan Correspondents 1.3 Full Line, $2 ‐ $5 Million 1.6
Electronics Dealers 3.8 Hardware Stores (4) Motion Picture Theaters (1) 1.0 Full Line, >$5 Million 2.6
Appliance and Electronics Dealers 3.4 <$500,000 2.4 Musical Instruments (1) 2.2 Specialty, <$500,000 3.3
Auto Dealers, Gas Stations (1) 0.8 $500,000 ‐ $1 Million 2.7 Office Furniture, Excluding Wood (1) 0.6 Specialty, $500,000 ‐ $999,999 2.7
Auto and Home Supply Stores (1) 1.9 $1 ‐ $2 Million 2.5 Office of Physicians (1) 1.2 Specialty, $1 ‐ $2 Million 2.6
Bakery Products (1) 0.7 >$2 Million 2.2 Ophthalmic Goods (1) 3.5 Specialty, >2 Million 3.0
Beverages (1) 6.7 Hobby, Toy and Game Shops (1) 2.9 Paints, Varnishes, Lacquers (1) 2.1 Television Broadcast Stations (1) 8.3
Bicycle Dealers (3) 3.1 Home Centers (4) Perfume, Cosmetic, Toilet Preparations (1) 19.2 Tires and Inner Tubes (1) 2.2
Books, Publishing and Printing (1) 3.8 <$2 Million 1.3 Photographic Equipment and Supplies (1) 1.4 Tobacco Products (1) 4
Building Materials, Hardware, Garden
(Retail) (1) 2.1 $2 ‐ $3 Million 1.0 Racing, including Track Operations (1) 3.3 Variety Stores (1) 1.5
Radio, TV and Consumer Electronic Stores
Cable and Other Pay TV Services (1) 7.3 $3 ‐ $6 Million 1.1 (1) 2.4 Video Tape Rental (1) 4.7
Carpets and Rugs (1) 0.8 >$6 Million 0.8 Real Estate Agents and Managers (1) 2.7 Women's Clothing Stores (1) 3.7
Catalog, Mail‐Order Houses (1) 3.5 Home Health Care Services (1) 1.1 Restaurants (5)
Child Day Care Services (7) 0.9 Hospitals (1) 0.6 Full Service, <$15 2.0
Computer and Office Equipment (1) 0.6 Hotels and Motels (1) 1.4 Full Service, $15 ‐ $24.99 1.8
Convenience Stores (1) 0.1 Household Appliances (1) 1.9 Full Service, >$25 2.2
Department Stores (1) 5.1 Household Audio and Video Equipment (1) 6.5 Limited Service 1.6
Direct‐Mail Advertising Services (1) 1.7 Household Furniture (1) 6.1 Security Brokers and Dealers (1) 0.5
g p y ( )
Drug and Proprietary Stores (1) 0.7 Insurance Agents, Brokers and Service (1)
g , ( ) 0.4
Educational Services (1) 12.8 Investment Advice (1) 1.6
Sources
(1) Schonfeld & associates Inc. Advertising Rtes & Budgets, June
(2) North American Retail Dealers Association, Cost of Doing Business Survey Report, 2007
(3) National Bicycle Dealers Association, The Cost of Doing Business, 2006‐2007
(4) National Retail Hardware Association, Cost of Doing Business Study, 2007
(5) National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Industry Operations Report, 2007‐2008
(6) National Sporting Goods Association, Cost of Doing Business Survey, 2006‐07
(7) Schonfeld & Associates Inc. Advertising Ratios & Budgets, June 2007
(7) Schonfeld & Associates Inc Advertising Ratios & Budgets June 2007
20. Step 3: Forecasting Monthly Ad Investment
Kristy Family Jewelry Store
a. Advertising-to-Sales
a Ad ertising to Sales Ratio (Per Chart)
5.4%
b.
b Forecasted Sales Per Month (Per Step 2)
Jan: $29,040
c.
c Monthly Ad Investment
Jan: $29,040 x .054 = $1,568
( p
(Repeat for each month.))
21. Step 3 Alternative
One-Minute Budget Test
Results Interpretation:
• 4-7 Points Approx. 3-4% of sales.
• 8-11 Points Approx. 4-5% of sales.
• 12 Points Approx. 5-7% of sales
Approx
22. Step 3 Alternative: 1-Min Budget Test
Nate’s Window Installation
i i
Results Interpretation:
4-7 Points = 3-4% Sales
3
8-11 Points = 4-5% Sales.
12 Points = 5-7% of Sales
3
1
Nate’s budget should be
g
4-5% of estimated
2
or previous year’s sales.
9
23. Sample 4-Step Ad Plan Chart
4 Step
Monthlyy Monthly % Monthly
y
Monthly
M thl % Store Sales of A
f Annual Ad
l Ad Budget
Annual Sales (Annual Sales x Spend (Column 2 x
Step 2 Column 1) (Step 3) Column 3)
January
February
March
Q
Q1 Totals
24. Sample 4-Step Ad Plan Chart
Kristy Family Jewelry Store
Monthly %
Monthly
M thl % Monthly
M thl of A
f Annual Ad
l Monthly
M thl
Annual Sales Store Sales Spend Ad Budget
($476,055) ($68,552 x Col 1) (Col 2) (Col 2 x 3)
January 6.1% $29,040 5.4% $1,568
February 8.8% $41,893 5.4% $2,262
March 7.1% $33,800 5.4% $1,825
Q
Q1 Totals $ ,
$104,733 $ ,
$5,655
25. Step 4
Determining Monthly
Ad Scheduling
• Choose an advertising consultant
Preferably one with multi-media
capabilities and local market
knowledge.
• Write out your monthly
y y
ad plan on a year-long
calendar.
• Execute!
26. Key Considerations
for Monthly Planning
i
When?
• Popular paydays (e g Social Security major companies etc )
(e.g. Security, companies, etc.)
• Heavy store-traffic days and/or those with special hours.
• In synch with national/local merchandising events (i.e. co-op opportunities)
• Around known flux in prices and inventory.
Why?
• Ad frequency builds awareness
• Your competitors are doing it – or doing it better.
• You’re expanding products or departments.
You re departments
What Else?
• S
Strategic integration of advertising media ( i online, di
i i i f d i i di (print, li direct marketing, etc.)
k i )
27. Learn More
• Nate Kristy, Market Development Manager @ AJC:
nkristy@ajc.com
• ajcmediakit com
ajcmediakit.com
• NAA.org
• advertising.yahoo.com