1. Descriptive Statistics

2. Policy Perceptions on Food Security:
Abuse of Averages
Source: Suryanarayana (2011) in India Development Report 2011

3. 11th Five Year Plan on Food Security
• Sustained solution to morbidity
• All the more so,
Stagnant incomes of the poor
Perverse changes in consumption patterns –
decline in cereal share
Trend reduction in average cereal consumption
Policy Perceptions on Food Security 3

4. 11th Five Year Plan on Food Security
Trend reduction in calorie intake – 8% in rural
India - 3% in urban India between 1983 and 2004-
05
Average calorie intake fall increasingly short of
official poverty line norms: 2400 kcals rural India
2100 kcals urban India
Policy Perceptions on Food Security 4

5. Incidence of Poverty (million): 1983-2004
300.00
251.96
250.00 244.03
220.92
200.00
150.00
100.00
70.94
76.34
80.80
50.00
1983
1993
2004
Rural Urban
Policy Perceptions on Food Security 5

6. Incidence of Calorie Deficiency (%)
Norms: 2400 Kcal (Rural); 2100 Kcal (Urban)
79.8
80 75.8
74.2
71.1 70.1
67.8
70 66.1 64.8 65.9
63.9 63.9
60.5
57.1 58.1 58.2
60
50
Rural
40 Urban
All India
30
20
10
0
1983 1987/88 1993/94 1999/00 2004/05
Policy Perceptions on Food Security 6

7. 11th Five Year Plan on Food Security
Consequences - Nutritional outcome parameters
like low birth weights of newborn
babies, anthropometric measures
Policy Perceptions on Food Security 7

8. Review
• Estimates of consumption patterns
Averages at current prices conceal rather than
reveal dynamics of change.
Reflect changes in relative prices and not real
changes in consumption patterns.
Current price estimates exaggerate the extent of
changes.
Policy Perceptions on Food Security 8

9. Review
Cereal share, of course, has declined though not
to the extent as revealed by current price
estimates.
Per capita cereal expenditure increased for the
bottom three decile groups but not quantities –
dynamics of agricultural development.
Calorie intake increased for the bottom decile
groups decreased for the top ones: convergence
at a lower level.
Policy Perceptions on Food Security 9

10. Monthly Per-Capita Consumer Expenditure by the Poorest Decile Groups and
Total Population: All-India Rural
30
25
Rs at 1960-61 prices
20
15
10
5
0
1960-61
1983
62-63
78-79
84-85
90-91
64-65
66-67
68-69
70-71
72-73
74-75
76-77
80-81
86-87
88-89
93-94
Year
Poorest Decile Group (PDG) 2nd PDG 3rd PDG 4th PDG 5th PDG Total Rural
Policy Perceptions on Food Security 10

11. Per Capita Cereal Consumption: All India Rural
18
16
14
12
10
Kg per month
8
6
4
2
0
Poorest DG
2nd PDG
3rd PDG
4th PDG
5th PDG
Total Rural
Decile Group
1954-55 1960-61 1977-78 1983 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05
11
Policy Perceptions on Food Security

12. Cereal Consumption Composition
of the Poorest Decile Group: All-India Rural
120
100
80
Share (per cent)
60
40
20
0
1954-55
1960-61
1977-78
1983
1993-94
Year
Rice Wheat Coarse cereals
Policy Perceptions on Food Security 12

13. Cereal Consumption Composition of Total Population:
All-India Rural
100
90
80
70
Share (per cent)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1954-55
1960-61
1977-78
1983
1993-94
Year
Rice Wheat Coarse cereals
Policy Perceptions on Food Security 13

14. Consequences
• Incidence of calorie deficiency increased by
conventional norms but not so by convergence
norms.
Policy Perceptions on Food Security 14

15. What is the evidence by
disaggregate population groups?

16. Per Capita Cereal Consumption by Decile Groups:All India Rural
25
20
kg s per month
15
10
5
0
1972/73 1983 1993/94 1999/2000 2004/05
Year
Decile Group I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
Policy Perceptions on Food Security 16

17. Per Capita Cereal Consumption by Decile Groups: All India Urban
14
12
10
kgs per month
8
6
4
2
0
1972/73 1983 1993/94 1999/2000 2004/05
Year
Decile Group I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
Policy Perceptions on Food Security 17

18. Per Capita Calorie Intake by Decile Groups: All India Rural
4500
4000
3500
3000
kcals per diem
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1972/73 1983 1993/94 1999/00 2004/05
Year
Decile Group I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X Norm
Policy Perceptions on Food Security 18

19. Per Capita Calorie Intake by Decile Group: All India Urban
4000
3500
3000
kcals per diem
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1972/73 1983 1993/94 1999/00 2004/05
Year
Decile Group I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X Norm
Policy Perceptions on Food Security 19

20. Incidence of Malnutrition: States
Proportion (%) of Underweight Children: Major States
70
60 47.3
50 51.8
Proportion (%)
40
30
1992-93
20 1998-99
2005-06
10
0
Policy Perceptions on Food Security 20

21. Growth Rate
A Story of Computations

22. Assess Growth performance pre- and post-reform
Source: Government of India (2003): Economic Survey
2002-2003, p. S – 4.
Year Annual Growth Rate (%)in Per Capita Net National Product (at
1993/94 prices)
1985-86 2.1
1986-87 1.8
1987-88 1.2
1988-89 8.3
1989-90 4.6
1990-91 3.3
1991-92 -1.5
1992-93 3.1
1993-94 3.4
1994-95 4.9
1995-96 5.2
1996-97 6.1
1997-98 2.6
22
Growth Rate

23. Sectorwise GDP: Maharashtra (at 1999-2000 prices)
SECTORS 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003* 2003-04* 2004-05* 2005-06 * 2006-07* 2007-08* 2008-09+
1.1
Agriculture 3455054 3287801 3480299 3580625 3976855 3715719 4047401 4515299 4985079 3929665
1.2 Forestry 171997 159797 162504 155770 151688 134022 133559 144553 143940 136430
1.3 Fishing 82425 78127 81497 78708 81104 71796 80472 79440 78720 69081
1.Agricultur
e & Allied
Activities 3709476 3525725 3724300 3815103 4209647 3921537 4261433 4739292 5207738 4135176
2.Mining &
Quarrying 155625 165329 173300 184801 202241 215049 222812 236126 256201 219964
Primary
Sector 3865101 3691054 3897600 3999904 4411888 4136586 4484245 4975418 5463939 4355140
3.1
Registered 3123876 2487223 2321190 2625334 3000532 3323943 3598169 3997157 4282590 4276802
3.2 Un
registered 1010431 1087980 1055441 1127456 1186591 1272930 1366229 1514549 1638527 1611735
3.Manufact
uring Total 4134307 3575203 3376631 3752790 4187123 4596872 4964398 5511706 5921116 5888538
4.Electricity
,gas and and
water
supply 382856 447933 357175 430124 445522 523478 561244 543319 629107 645785
5.Constructi
on 1291990 1134730 1262882 1262050 1374345 1398070 1486430 2083731 2599522 3328045
Secondary
Sector 5809152 5157866 4996688 5444965 6006990 6518421 7012072 8138755 9149745 9862367
Growth Rate 23

24. Annual Growth rates
2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005-06 2006- 2007- 2008-
2001 2002 2003* 04* 05* * 07* 08* 09+ CAGR
1.1 Agriculture (4.84) 5.85 2.88 11.07 (6.57) 8.93 11.56 10.40 (21.17) 1.44
1.2 Forestry (7.09) 1.69 (4.14) (2.62) (11.65) (0.35) 8.23 (0.42) (5.22) (2.54)
1.3 Fishing (5.21) 4.31 (3.42) 3.04 (11.48) 12.09 (1.28) (0.91) (12.24) (1.94)
1.Agriculture &
Allied Activities (4.95) 5.63 2.44 10.34 (6.84) 8.67 11.21 9.88 (20.60) 1.21
2.Mining &
Quarrying 6.24 4.82 6.64 9.44 6.33 3.61 5.98 8.50 (14.14) 3.92
Primary Sector (4.50) 5.60 2.62 10.30 (6.24) 8.40 10.95 9.82 (20.29) 1.34
3.1 Registered (20.38) (6.68) 13.10 14.29 10.78 8.25 11.09 7.14 (0.14) 3.55
3.2 Un registered 7.67 (2.99) 6.82 5.24 7.28 7.33 10.86 8.19 (1.64) 5.33
3.Manufacturing
Total (13.52) (5.55) 11.14 11.57 9.79 8.00 11.02 7.43 (0.55) 4.01
4.Electricity,gas
and and water
supply 17.00 (20.26) 20.42 3.58 17.50 7.21 (3.19) 15.79 2.65 5.98
5.Construction (12.17) 11.29 (0.07) 8.90 1.73 6.32 40.18 24.75 28.03 11.09
Secondary Sector (11.21) (3.12) 8.97 10.32 8.51 7.57 16.07 12.42 7.79 6.06
Industry
Sector (10.76) (2.88) 8.89 10.29 8.44 7.45 15.76 12.31 7.19 6.01
Growth Rate 24

25. Regression based Trend growth rates
SECTORS Trend growth
1.1 Agriculture 3.50
1.2 Forestry -2.39
1.3 Fishing -1.04
1.Agriculture & Allied
Activities 3.19
2.Mining & Quarrying 5.19
Primary Sector 3.28
3.1 Registered 6.50
3.2 Un registered 5.94
3.Manufacturing Total 6.31
4.Electricity,gas and water
supply 6.34
5.Construction 11.07
Secondary Sector 7.58
Industry Sector 7.51
Growth Rate 25