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Stats are Sexy!
Metrics and Testing
     That’s HOT!




                      1
2




 “The only truth is what actually
           happens.”


The number of people who did the
thing you wanted them to do. Give.
    Act. Volunteer. Come to Get
             Together.
                                    2
3


The data




  Oh NO! Let’s take a closer look...
                                 3
4

       What are all these metrics?


• It’s easy to get lost in the
  result metrics, some
  common calculations are:
   •   Delivery rate
   •   Open rate
   •   Click-through rate
   •   Conversion rate
   •   Tell-a-Friend rates


                                     4
5

Delivery Rate =
   Deliveryemails Received/
    Number of
     Total emails Sent
                  Delivered Emails,
                  not yet opened




                                      5
6


                      Open Rate =
  Opening the email members
       Number of emailed
           who opened at least 1 email/

Opened emailTotal Emails Sent




                                      6
7

Beware, Preview Pane
 Affects Open Rates




                       7
8


Opened email




               8
9

Click-Through
       Click-through Rate =
   Number of emailed members
   who clicked on at least one link/
   Total Emails Sent




                                9
10
The Response
          Response Rate =
 Number of emailed members who
 participated in the campaign /
 Total emails Sent




                            10
11
Tell-a-Friend Usage
      Tell-a-Friend Usage Rate =
         Number of emailed members
         who told at least 1 friend/
         Total emails Sent




                               11
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Tell-a-friend Recruitment
     Tell-a-Friend Recruitment Rate =
              Number of Friends who
              joined a center/
              Total Emails Sent




                                  12
13

         Which Rates are
       the most important?
• Conversion Rates are the best measure of a
  campaign’s immediate success
• Click-through rates can be good indicators of
  how members are interacting with your
  messages
• Open rates are deceiving for short term data,
  but if measured over several years can become
  interesting. They also are good for normalizing
  other data.

                                             13
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So, what can you do with all these
           statistics?




                               14
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   This is a numbers game …
                            … do the math
• If you want 10 people to TAKE ACTION,
  then:
  • (at least) 20 people need to click to the
    advocacy page
  • (at least) 30 people need to open your e-mail
    message
  • (at least) 100 people need to receive your
    message


                                            15
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    This is a numbers game … math
                       … do the
• If you want 10 people to DONATE, then:
   • (at least) 50 people need to click to the
     donation page
   • (at least) 250 people need to open your e-
     mail message
   • (at least) 1,000 people need to receive your
     message
• Yes, your results may vary…dramatically!



                                              16
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      It all starts with the list
• Good direct marketing is all about the
  list
  • It starts with the list
  • It ends with the list
  • It is all about the list
• But building a good list requires you
  to be good at everything else: your
  work, copy, layout, timing, etc.

                                     17
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       Typical response rates
•   Nothing is typical, really
•   Big lists usually = lower response…
•   …and smaller lists usually ROCK
•   But if you make us…




                                     18
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       Where can I find my
       industry standards?
•   Marketingsherpa.com
•   Emarketer.com
•   Opt-In News
•   Your own campaigns!




                             19
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Making the most of the numbers to get the most out of
              your online program…


  Segmenting and Testing

                                                   20
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          Segmenting is…



…dividing your e-mail list when running campaigns to
learn more, personalize, and generate higher results.




                                                    21
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   Segmentation example
• Donors
  Recipients   Amt of   # of    Avg      Resp.
               Gifts    Gifts   gift     rate
  3,500        $2,290   40      $57.75   1.13%


• People on direct mail list with e-mail
  Recipients   Amt of   # of    Avg      Resp.
               Gifts    Gifts   gift     rate
  7,250        $3,385   92      $36.79   1.26%


• E-mail subscribers
  Recipients   Amt of   # of    Avg      Resp.
               Gifts    Gifts   gift     rate
  7,000        $775     26      $29.81   0.37%
                                                 22
23



Before segmenting…




                     23
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After segmenting…




                    24
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    Other segmentation strategies
• Giving level
• Campaign-based
     •   Donors who have taken action
     •   Donors who have not taken action
     •   Non-donors who have taken action
     •   Non-donor, non-action-takers
•   Recency
•   Source
•   One-time and lapsed online donors
•   Active and inactive non-donors          25
26



                 Testing …




…Once you’ve determined how best to segment your
particular list, you can begin to test what works within
each of these segments.



                                                       26
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                          Testing
• Open rates
  • Time of day, day of week
  • Subject lines
     • Straightforward subject lines vs suggestive ones.
         • Your action will help a child eat today
             vs.
         • How can you help the orphans?
     • To Mention The Ask Or Not?
         • Looking ahead, more animals need your help in 2007
             vs.
         • Last chance for your tax-deductible gift to animals
     • Subject lines that in different ways ask for a renewal of
       commitment.
         • Renew your commitment for 2007
             vs.
         • Your membership is expiring
             vs.
         • Renew today—and save even more puppies                  27
28




           Testing, continued
• Click through rates
     •   Premiums
     •   Offer
     •   Signer
     •   Short or long copy
     •   Link placement
• Conversion rates
     •   Short vs. long page
     •   Images and insets
     •   First things first!
     •   Giving levels


                                28
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  How to create a good test...
• Pick one variable you want to test
• Keep everything else the same
• Randomly 50/50 split the population of
  the campaign
• Compare the results from each test
  group using a “significance calculator”
• “Significant” results mean the results
  can be repeated
                                            29
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      Testing Do’s and Don’t’s
• DO
  • Ask a question and design a test to answer it
  • Select a RANDOM sample of your list
  • Test ONE thing at a time
  • Keep everything the same except for the thing
    you are testing
  • Check for statistical significance
  • Make sure your list segments are large
    enough to produce meaningful results
  • Understand that some test results are only
    applicable to the message you were testing

                                                30
31



   Testing Do’s and Don’t’s
• DON’T
  • Assume that test results apply across lists
    or list segments
  • Bite off more than you can chew
  • Read too much into the numbers
  • Assume that every test will yield
    statistically significant results


                                                  31
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                   Testing Gone Wrong
                                                              Click                   Response     Better     Statistical
                                        Messages              Through     Unique      Rate (unique Than       Significance
Version   Description                   Sent        Open Rate Rate        Signatures sigs)         Control?   ?
CONTROL   Regular Email                      21,059    20.90%       8.40%       1,395       6.62%
          Masked URLs – used
          hyperlinked text instead
Test 1    of spelled out URL                20,953     22.70%     10.60%        1,645       7.85% Y           Y

          In Line URLs –URLs are
          in the line of text, not
Test 2    separate paragraphs               20,377     21.30%       8.30%       1,318       6.47% N           N

          Longer subject line –
          Everything is same as
          control, except the subject
Test 3    line is a longer version          20,419     20.30%       7.90%       1,262       6.18% N           N
          Header Images-
          Everything is same as
          control, except header
          image does not have a
Test 4    picture of candidate              20,784     21.50%       8.30%       1,391       6.69% Y           N
          No Header Image –
Test 5    header image is removed           21,734     22.50%       8.80%       1,524       7.01% Y           N

          Large Button - take
          action button in the upper
Test 6    right hand corner is larger       21,014     21.10%       8.50%       1,431       6.81% Y           N
          Move On Style- email is
          stripped of header image
Test 7    and all graphics                  21,591     22.60%     10.70%        1,804       8.36% Y           Y


          Short Email – middle
Test 8    paragraphs are removed            21,146     23.90%       8.90%       1,483       7.01% Y           N

          Greeting - lead in to the
          email says “Dear Friend”
                                                                                                                    32
Test 9    instead of Dear First Name         20,702    21.30%       7.90%      1,328         6.41% N          N
Total                                      209,779    21.82%       8.84%      14,581        6.95% Y           N
33



         What Happened?
• Too many variables
• Tried to answer every question at
  once
• The result:
  • Hours of work to set up 10 segments
  • Data was messy and difficult to decipher
  • We didn’t learn much about our list
                                               33
34



 What We Should Have Done
• Picked one variable
• Had a clear question to answer
• Split the list in half or thirds
  instead of in tenths


                                     34
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         And the winner is….
• Subject Line Test
   • What metric should be used to evaluate a subject
     line?
   • Which is the winner?




                                                    35
36



            And the winner is…
• Open Rate
• Two-way tie
                                                     Click
                                             Open    Through                   Response
    Message                    Emails Sent   Rate    Rate      Actions         Rate
    Bush's Budget: Guns
    Not Butter                          1,000   28.50%   13.00%           53        5.30%
    What's At Stake                      999    31.90%   15.50%           52        5.20%
    Action Alert: Defend 100
    Hours Agenda                         999    27.70%   14.80%           49        4.90%


    Action Alert: Organize
    agaist Bush's budget                1,000   31.90%   18.20%           51        5.10%
    Organize Against Bush's
    Budget                              1,000   28.80%   16.70%           54        5.40%
    Total                              4,998    30.60%   16.90%          259       5.18%



                                                                                            36
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              And the winner is…
• Link placement test
    • Which is the most important metric?
    • Which segment is the winner?
                                            Click
                  Messages                  Through     Unique        Response
Test              Sent         Open Rate    Rate        Signatures    Rate
Below the first
paragraph             20,419       22.70%      10.60%         1,645         8.06%

Below the third
paragraph             20,567       21.30%       8.30%         1,318         6.41%
Below the fifth
paragraph             20,489       20.30%       7.90%         1,262         6.18%




                                                                                 37
38



       And the winner is…
• Click Through Rate
• Below the first paragraph




                              38
39



              And the winner is….
• Short Email vs. Long Email
    • What metric(s) should you look at?
    • Which message is the winner?
                                      Click
               Messages               Through     Response
               Sent        Open Rate Rate         Rate
Long Email          95,917     20.90%       7.50%      5.62%
Short Email         96,953     21.10%       7.30%      5.48%




                                                       39
40



              And the winner is…
  • Click through rates and response rates
  • Trick question – the results are statistically
    insignificant.
     • You can’t always eyeball test results – be sure to
       test for statistical significance


                                     Click
              Messages               Through     Response
              Sent        Open Rate Rate         Rate
Long Email         95,917     20.90%       7.50%      5.62%
Short Email        96,953     21.10%       7.30%      5.48%
                                                            40
41



               And the winner is…
   • Which campaign is more successful? Why?



                                Click
           Messages     Open    Through              Amount Average Response
Campaign   Received     Rate    Rate      Donations Donated Gift       Rate
Issue #1          63,101 42.06%     0.49%        102   $6,578   $64.49      0.16%
Issue #2          62,653 41.48%     0.62%        125   $4,960   $39.68      0.20%




                                                                          41
42



       And the winner is…
• Arctic campaign most likely to raise
  money (fewer donors, but higher
  average gift)
• Public lands campaign most likely to get
  engage donors (more donors, lower
  average gift).
  • Depending on the goals of the campaign
    (raise a lot of $, or get more people to
    give), both are a success.                 42
43



       And the winner is….
• From line testing – by list segment
• What should the organization do
  moving forward?




                                        43
44



       And the winner is…
• Even thought the inactive segment had
  a lower open rate with the from line
  “Kathy, Organization” all of the other
  segments saw improved open rates.
• You could segment out the inactive
  folks and continue to send them
  messages with the old from line, but it’s
  probably not worth the effort.
                                          44
45




    Digging Deeper:
5 Questions you could ask




                            45
46


         Question 1

Which group of people on my
email list is the most likely to
take action, tell a friend, or
donate?



                              46
47



Question 1, Sample answer
                              Source 1   Source 2

Members in Group                2,403      4,014

Activists*                     59.84%     29.45%

Donors                         5.45%      2.72%

TAF                            35.41%     9.12%

Super activists                4.99%      2.99%

Members who opened an email    57.26%     55.23%
in 2005

Members who clicked            70.41%     54.53%


                                                    47
48



        Answering Question 1
• Two words: Source Codes
• Suffix on imports or on any link someone may
  click to come on your list, starts with ‘?
  source=’
  •   Advocacy campaign (?source=advo1)
  •   Viral Flash game or movie (?source=funny_movie)
  •   Banner ads (?source=yahoo_banner)
  •   Paid source (?source=care2)
  •   Donation campaign (?source=moneybags)
• Source codes are attached to a member so
  you always know where they originally came 48
  from
49



     Answering Question 1
• Each cell in the table is a member
  select
• Query members who have the source
  code you want AND have donated,
  taken action, etc.
• The results can help you compare how
  valuable names from various sources
  are to your organization

                                         49
50



        Question 2


How do I know how fast my
list is growing?




                            50
51



      Answering Question 2
• List Growth Rate: # new sign-ups/# of
  deliverable addresses
  • Shows % list growth over a period of time (month,
    3-months, year)
• List Hurdle Rate: # removals/# of deliverable
  addresses
  • Shows % of list that leaves over a period of time
  • # removals tells you how many new names you
    need to get before you achieve net growth

                                                        51
52



        Question 3


How come my advocacy
response rates are so low?




                             52
53



        Question 4


How do I find out if I’m
sending too much email?




                           53
54



        Question 5


How valuable is an email
address?




                           54

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Metrics and Testing

  • 1. Stats are Sexy! Metrics and Testing That’s HOT! 1
  • 2. 2 “The only truth is what actually happens.” The number of people who did the thing you wanted them to do. Give. Act. Volunteer. Come to Get Together. 2
  • 3. 3 The data Oh NO! Let’s take a closer look... 3
  • 4. 4 What are all these metrics? • It’s easy to get lost in the result metrics, some common calculations are: • Delivery rate • Open rate • Click-through rate • Conversion rate • Tell-a-Friend rates 4
  • 5. 5 Delivery Rate = Deliveryemails Received/ Number of Total emails Sent Delivered Emails, not yet opened 5
  • 6. 6 Open Rate = Opening the email members Number of emailed who opened at least 1 email/ Opened emailTotal Emails Sent 6
  • 7. 7 Beware, Preview Pane Affects Open Rates 7
  • 9. 9 Click-Through Click-through Rate = Number of emailed members who clicked on at least one link/ Total Emails Sent 9
  • 10. 10 The Response Response Rate = Number of emailed members who participated in the campaign / Total emails Sent 10
  • 11. 11 Tell-a-Friend Usage Tell-a-Friend Usage Rate = Number of emailed members who told at least 1 friend/ Total emails Sent 11
  • 12. 12 Tell-a-friend Recruitment Tell-a-Friend Recruitment Rate = Number of Friends who joined a center/ Total Emails Sent 12
  • 13. 13 Which Rates are the most important? • Conversion Rates are the best measure of a campaign’s immediate success • Click-through rates can be good indicators of how members are interacting with your messages • Open rates are deceiving for short term data, but if measured over several years can become interesting. They also are good for normalizing other data. 13
  • 14. 14 So, what can you do with all these statistics? 14
  • 15. 15 This is a numbers game … … do the math • If you want 10 people to TAKE ACTION, then: • (at least) 20 people need to click to the advocacy page • (at least) 30 people need to open your e-mail message • (at least) 100 people need to receive your message 15
  • 16. 16 This is a numbers game … math … do the • If you want 10 people to DONATE, then: • (at least) 50 people need to click to the donation page • (at least) 250 people need to open your e- mail message • (at least) 1,000 people need to receive your message • Yes, your results may vary…dramatically! 16
  • 17. 17 It all starts with the list • Good direct marketing is all about the list • It starts with the list • It ends with the list • It is all about the list • But building a good list requires you to be good at everything else: your work, copy, layout, timing, etc. 17
  • 18. 18 Typical response rates • Nothing is typical, really • Big lists usually = lower response… • …and smaller lists usually ROCK • But if you make us… 18
  • 19. 19 Where can I find my industry standards? • Marketingsherpa.com • Emarketer.com • Opt-In News • Your own campaigns! 19
  • 20. 20 Making the most of the numbers to get the most out of your online program… Segmenting and Testing 20
  • 21. 21 Segmenting is… …dividing your e-mail list when running campaigns to learn more, personalize, and generate higher results. 21
  • 22. 22 Segmentation example • Donors Recipients Amt of # of Avg Resp. Gifts Gifts gift rate 3,500 $2,290 40 $57.75 1.13% • People on direct mail list with e-mail Recipients Amt of # of Avg Resp. Gifts Gifts gift rate 7,250 $3,385 92 $36.79 1.26% • E-mail subscribers Recipients Amt of # of Avg Resp. Gifts Gifts gift rate 7,000 $775 26 $29.81 0.37% 22
  • 25. 25 Other segmentation strategies • Giving level • Campaign-based • Donors who have taken action • Donors who have not taken action • Non-donors who have taken action • Non-donor, non-action-takers • Recency • Source • One-time and lapsed online donors • Active and inactive non-donors 25
  • 26. 26 Testing … …Once you’ve determined how best to segment your particular list, you can begin to test what works within each of these segments. 26
  • 27. 27 Testing • Open rates • Time of day, day of week • Subject lines • Straightforward subject lines vs suggestive ones. • Your action will help a child eat today vs. • How can you help the orphans? • To Mention The Ask Or Not? • Looking ahead, more animals need your help in 2007 vs. • Last chance for your tax-deductible gift to animals • Subject lines that in different ways ask for a renewal of commitment. • Renew your commitment for 2007 vs. • Your membership is expiring vs. • Renew today—and save even more puppies 27
  • 28. 28 Testing, continued • Click through rates • Premiums • Offer • Signer • Short or long copy • Link placement • Conversion rates • Short vs. long page • Images and insets • First things first! • Giving levels 28
  • 29. 29 How to create a good test... • Pick one variable you want to test • Keep everything else the same • Randomly 50/50 split the population of the campaign • Compare the results from each test group using a “significance calculator” • “Significant” results mean the results can be repeated 29
  • 30. 30 Testing Do’s and Don’t’s • DO • Ask a question and design a test to answer it • Select a RANDOM sample of your list • Test ONE thing at a time • Keep everything the same except for the thing you are testing • Check for statistical significance • Make sure your list segments are large enough to produce meaningful results • Understand that some test results are only applicable to the message you were testing 30
  • 31. 31 Testing Do’s and Don’t’s • DON’T • Assume that test results apply across lists or list segments • Bite off more than you can chew • Read too much into the numbers • Assume that every test will yield statistically significant results 31
  • 32. 32 Testing Gone Wrong Click Response Better Statistical Messages Through Unique Rate (unique Than Significance Version Description Sent Open Rate Rate Signatures sigs) Control? ? CONTROL Regular Email 21,059 20.90% 8.40% 1,395 6.62% Masked URLs – used hyperlinked text instead Test 1 of spelled out URL 20,953 22.70% 10.60% 1,645 7.85% Y Y In Line URLs –URLs are in the line of text, not Test 2 separate paragraphs 20,377 21.30% 8.30% 1,318 6.47% N N Longer subject line – Everything is same as control, except the subject Test 3 line is a longer version 20,419 20.30% 7.90% 1,262 6.18% N N Header Images- Everything is same as control, except header image does not have a Test 4 picture of candidate 20,784 21.50% 8.30% 1,391 6.69% Y N No Header Image – Test 5 header image is removed 21,734 22.50% 8.80% 1,524 7.01% Y N Large Button - take action button in the upper Test 6 right hand corner is larger 21,014 21.10% 8.50% 1,431 6.81% Y N Move On Style- email is stripped of header image Test 7 and all graphics 21,591 22.60% 10.70% 1,804 8.36% Y Y Short Email – middle Test 8 paragraphs are removed 21,146 23.90% 8.90% 1,483 7.01% Y N Greeting - lead in to the email says “Dear Friend” 32 Test 9 instead of Dear First Name 20,702 21.30% 7.90% 1,328 6.41% N N Total 209,779 21.82% 8.84% 14,581 6.95% Y N
  • 33. 33 What Happened? • Too many variables • Tried to answer every question at once • The result: • Hours of work to set up 10 segments • Data was messy and difficult to decipher • We didn’t learn much about our list 33
  • 34. 34 What We Should Have Done • Picked one variable • Had a clear question to answer • Split the list in half or thirds instead of in tenths 34
  • 35. 35 And the winner is…. • Subject Line Test • What metric should be used to evaluate a subject line? • Which is the winner? 35
  • 36. 36 And the winner is… • Open Rate • Two-way tie Click Open Through Response Message Emails Sent Rate Rate Actions Rate Bush's Budget: Guns Not Butter 1,000 28.50% 13.00% 53 5.30% What's At Stake 999 31.90% 15.50% 52 5.20% Action Alert: Defend 100 Hours Agenda 999 27.70% 14.80% 49 4.90% Action Alert: Organize agaist Bush's budget 1,000 31.90% 18.20% 51 5.10% Organize Against Bush's Budget 1,000 28.80% 16.70% 54 5.40% Total 4,998 30.60% 16.90% 259 5.18% 36
  • 37. 37 And the winner is… • Link placement test • Which is the most important metric? • Which segment is the winner? Click Messages Through Unique Response Test Sent Open Rate Rate Signatures Rate Below the first paragraph 20,419 22.70% 10.60% 1,645 8.06% Below the third paragraph 20,567 21.30% 8.30% 1,318 6.41% Below the fifth paragraph 20,489 20.30% 7.90% 1,262 6.18% 37
  • 38. 38 And the winner is… • Click Through Rate • Below the first paragraph 38
  • 39. 39 And the winner is…. • Short Email vs. Long Email • What metric(s) should you look at? • Which message is the winner? Click Messages Through Response Sent Open Rate Rate Rate Long Email 95,917 20.90% 7.50% 5.62% Short Email 96,953 21.10% 7.30% 5.48% 39
  • 40. 40 And the winner is… • Click through rates and response rates • Trick question – the results are statistically insignificant. • You can’t always eyeball test results – be sure to test for statistical significance Click Messages Through Response Sent Open Rate Rate Rate Long Email 95,917 20.90% 7.50% 5.62% Short Email 96,953 21.10% 7.30% 5.48% 40
  • 41. 41 And the winner is… • Which campaign is more successful? Why? Click Messages Open Through Amount Average Response Campaign Received Rate Rate Donations Donated Gift Rate Issue #1 63,101 42.06% 0.49% 102 $6,578 $64.49 0.16% Issue #2 62,653 41.48% 0.62% 125 $4,960 $39.68 0.20% 41
  • 42. 42 And the winner is… • Arctic campaign most likely to raise money (fewer donors, but higher average gift) • Public lands campaign most likely to get engage donors (more donors, lower average gift). • Depending on the goals of the campaign (raise a lot of $, or get more people to give), both are a success. 42
  • 43. 43 And the winner is…. • From line testing – by list segment • What should the organization do moving forward? 43
  • 44. 44 And the winner is… • Even thought the inactive segment had a lower open rate with the from line “Kathy, Organization” all of the other segments saw improved open rates. • You could segment out the inactive folks and continue to send them messages with the old from line, but it’s probably not worth the effort. 44
  • 45. 45 Digging Deeper: 5 Questions you could ask 45
  • 46. 46 Question 1 Which group of people on my email list is the most likely to take action, tell a friend, or donate? 46
  • 47. 47 Question 1, Sample answer Source 1 Source 2 Members in Group 2,403 4,014 Activists* 59.84% 29.45% Donors 5.45% 2.72% TAF 35.41% 9.12% Super activists 4.99% 2.99% Members who opened an email 57.26% 55.23% in 2005 Members who clicked 70.41% 54.53% 47
  • 48. 48 Answering Question 1 • Two words: Source Codes • Suffix on imports or on any link someone may click to come on your list, starts with ‘? source=’ • Advocacy campaign (?source=advo1) • Viral Flash game or movie (?source=funny_movie) • Banner ads (?source=yahoo_banner) • Paid source (?source=care2) • Donation campaign (?source=moneybags) • Source codes are attached to a member so you always know where they originally came 48 from
  • 49. 49 Answering Question 1 • Each cell in the table is a member select • Query members who have the source code you want AND have donated, taken action, etc. • The results can help you compare how valuable names from various sources are to your organization 49
  • 50. 50 Question 2 How do I know how fast my list is growing? 50
  • 51. 51 Answering Question 2 • List Growth Rate: # new sign-ups/# of deliverable addresses • Shows % list growth over a period of time (month, 3-months, year) • List Hurdle Rate: # removals/# of deliverable addresses • Shows % of list that leaves over a period of time • # removals tells you how many new names you need to get before you achieve net growth 51
  • 52. 52 Question 3 How come my advocacy response rates are so low? 52
  • 53. 53 Question 4 How do I find out if I’m sending too much email? 53
  • 54. 54 Question 5 How valuable is an email address? 54