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1.
Seng Heng Bank
– Center for Investment and Risk Analytics 誠興銀行 – 投資及風險研究中心 財來自有方 刊登日期:二零零八年十二月二十二日 (澳門日報) 作者為誠興銀行投資及風險研究中心分析師黃碩東 美國以致全球近期之數據顯示明年全球將會進入十分嚴重之經濟衰退.美國之經 濟衰退已經於去年 12 月開始,而其他已發展國家大約於今年第二季開始.在經濟 衰退下,信貸緊縮是必然會發生的事.加上 9 月開始之金融海嘯,信貸市場可說是 面臨崩潰.不論是企業或個人之信貸嚴重收緊.由於西方國家居民一向借貸比率甚 高(由其是美國),信貸收緊減低了居民消費其中一項主要資金來源,加上失業率不 斷上升,消費力大幅下降.這對一些主要出口至這些消費大國之新興市場影響開始 呈現,很多經濟以出口為主導之國家十一月份之出口額比去年同期大幅下降.在全 球一體化之今天,沒有一個國家能夠獨善其身,金融海嘯對各國之影響只有多與少, 及快和慢之分別. 在全球經濟衰退基本已成定案下,通縮已成為各國政府及央行主要對抗之敵人.近 期商品價格大幅下滑,例如油價從不到半年前之 140 多元跌到現時之低過 40 元. 加上全球整體需求在下降,但在新興市場之前之過度投資下,總潛在供應量卻處於 高水平.以上因素均說明明年全球將會有機會踏入通縮時代.而各政府現時正利用 不同之政策防治通縮出現.因為一但出現,居民因預期物價將會下跌而延遲消費, 繼而打擊企業盈利,企業因盈利下跌將會裁員,整體社會之消費力將進一步下降, 造成一個惡性循環. 舉例說美國,聯儲局上周決定削減聯邦基金目標利率到 0.25%, 比一般市場預期 的 0.5%為多.事實上在聯儲局這幾個月大規模增加流動性的措施下,短期之利率 一早就已經接近 0%水平. 在息口再沒有下調空間下,傳統上利用減息以刺激經濟 之彈藥已經用盡.現在取而代之的是以大量增加貨幣基礎及積極利用其他非傳統 之貨幣政策, 例如購入商業票據,企業債券,或是長期國庫債券以推低息率. 這
2.
些商業債券由於各金融機構風險胃納之大幅提升以致利率居高不下.政府之購入 或擔保有助市場對這類產品恢復信心,從而慢慢令信貸市場回復正常運作.但現時 之情況為雖然政府已經大量增加金融體系之流動性,銀行卻仍然不借貸,或大幅調 高借貸門檻.在這個問題未得以解決之前,全球經濟復甦可說是遙遙無期.
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