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Biweekly Financial Commentary 09 05 25
1.
Seng Heng Bank
– Center for Investment and Risk Analytics 誠興銀行 – 投資及風險研究中心 投資新思維 刊登日期 :2009 年 5 月 25 日(市民日報) 作者為誠興銀行投資及風險研究中心分析員黃碩東 SSD 研發商 -STEC 股票上升的最大動力不外乎是營業額及盈利的增長,上期介紹的 Diedrich Coffee (DDRX )是靠 K-cup 推動營業額大升, 短短 4 週已經上升了一倍..今期討論的 STEC 則是靠其新產品 ZeusIOPS 而獲得增長. STEC 股價走勢 (圖一 ) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 5/20/2008 7/20/2008 12/20/2008 2/20/2009 4/20/2009 6/20/2008 8/20/2008 9/20/2008 10/20/2008 11/20/2008 1/20/2009 3/20/2009 HDD 與 SSD 之比較 ZeusIOPS 是甚麼?它是 STEC 針對企業電腦儲存系統所研發的固態硬碟(SSD).現時 電腦儲存資料使用的硬碟一般分為兩種技術,大部分是使用 HDD,而 SSD 則為較新 興的技術.而 HDD 相比 SSD 具有低電能消耗,無噪音,抗震力強,低熱量及讀寫速度快 的特點.這些特點使資料能更加安全,快速及低成本地得到保存.SSD 的主要問題是其
2.
製造成本較 HDD 昂貴得多,但由於近年主要部件
Flash memory(快速記憶體)的成本 不斷下降.現時一些高端的手提電腦已經用上 SSD 作為其硬碟. Seng Heng Bank – Center for Investment and Risk Analytics 誠興銀行 – 投資及風險研究中心 STEC 之 營業額及每股盈利 (圖二 ) 0.18 70.0 0.16 60.0 0.14 50.0 每股盈利 ( 美元 ) 0.12 營業額 ( 百萬 ) 0.1 40.0 0.08 30.0 0.06 20.0 0.04 10.0 0.02 0 0.0 FQ2 FQ3 FQ4 FQ1 FQ2 FQ3 FQ4 FQ1 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 營業額 每股盈利 STEC 之業績 了解過 ZeusIOPS 後,現在我們先看看 STEC 的業績.於剛公佈的 09 年第一季業績當 中,公司的營業額由去年同期 50.7M 美元升到 63.5M 美元,升幅達 25%,每股盈利則上 升 142%至 0.17 美元.由圖三可見,推動公司營業額上升的主要動力來自企業用 SSD(即 ZeusIOPS)的銷售增長,於 09Q1,SSD 的營業額已經升至佔公司總營業額的 40.4%,我們可見於 5 季前 ZeusIOPS 的營業額才是 7M 美元,只佔總營業額 13.8%,而 現時營業額則增加至 25.7M 美元,短短 5 季增長 267%. 我們從 ZeusIOPS 的客戶增長可見其產品的快速普及程度,於約一年前,EMC 是首家 大型儲存及伺服器供應商宣佈於其產品中使用 ZeusIOPS,只此之後,各大型供應商均 成為了 STEC 的客戶,例如 Compellent,Hitach,Sun,HP,IBM 及 Fujitsu,這些供應商均會 在其新型號企業用儲存或伺服器上使用 ZeusIOPS.
3.
Seng Heng Bank
– Center for Investment and Risk Analytics 誠興銀行 – 投資及風險研究中心 STEC 之營業額分佈 (圖三 ) 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% FQ3 2007 FQ4 2007 FQ1 2008 FQ2 2008 FQ3 2008 FQ4 2008 FQ1 2009 動態隨機存取記憶體 (DRAM) 其他 其他快閃記憶體 (FLASH) 企業用固態硬碟 (SSD) 成本控制得宜 解釋過公司營業額增長的原因後,我們來探討 STEC 的成本控制.圖四可見 STEC 的 毛利率今年大升至 36.3%,上季毛利率下跌是因為要為某些存貨而作出撥備.今季毛 利率比過往之正常水平上升不少,主要是基於 ZeusIOPS 佔營業額的比例提升.在 ZeusIOPS 還沒有推出之前,公司的主要產品為動態隨機存取記憶體(DRAM)及快閃 記憶體(Flash),這兩個均是競爭十分激烈的市場,因此很難提升毛利率.由於 ZeusIOPS 的毛利率大約在 50-60%的水平,比公司其它產品毛利率高得多,因此便推高了公司的 整體毛利率.在預期 ZeusIOPS 的營業額比例會不斷提升下,公司的毛利率於未來數 季仍然會繼續上升. 另外一樣值得留意的是公司於今年 3 月尾已經大致上完成其美國廠房之搬遷,新廠 房設於馬來西亞,這也可令公司未來的生產及銷售成本得以降低.
4.
Seng Heng Bank
– Center for Investment and Risk Analytics 誠興銀行 – 投資及風險研究中心 STEC 之毛利率 (圖四 ) 37.0% 35.0% 33.0% 31.0% 29.0% 27.0% 25.0% FQ2 2007 FQ3 2007 FQ4 2007 FQ1 2008 FQ2 2008 FQ3 2008 FQ4 2008 FQ1 2009 總結 以現價計,保守估計 STEC 的 2010 年市盈率為 14 倍,以一家有高增長的科技公司來 說並不昂貴.主要投資風險為競爭對手研發出比 ZeusIOPS 有更高性能的 SSD,但於 短期內發生的可能性不大.
5.
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