Lentils are among the major grain crops in Ethiopia that constituted the major food crops for the majority of the country’s population. It also served as a source of income at household level and a contributor for the country’s foreign currency earnings. The study was conducted to analyze the trend of production and export of Lentils in Ethiopia. Secondary data on production and export of the crop were used and analyzed using descriptive statistics. The study identified that, the total land area and the total volume of lentil production has increased at a compound growth rate of 4% and 9% respectively, while the productivity of the crop has shown a 5%compounded growth. Ethiopia exports on average 2,339,693 kg of lentils and incurred birr 18,684,845. Pakistan and United Arab Emirates are the highest recipients for Ethiopian lentils with a share of 20 % and 16 % respectively. Italy was the destination country from which highest value/kg (birr 25/kg) from Lentils export is received. Therefore, it is important to give more attention to the crop in research system so as to have more improved varieties and agronomic recommendations. On the other hand, we need to export the crop and its product to those countries which have high Value to volume ratio (VVR).
2. Trends in Production and Export of Lentils in Ethiopia
Bezabeh and Belay 564
DATA
Time series data that cover a period of 24 years (1993 to
2016) were used. Data on production, area coverage and
yield were obtained from FAOSTAT (2016) and the export
volume and value of Lentils were obtained from Revenue
and Custom Authority of Ethiopia. The export volume and
value data collected from the Authority of Ethiopia
represents national level volume of Lentils exported and
the revenue the country has generated from its export. The
specific feature of the data obtained is that it is reliable and
free from estimation error as it is obtained from direct
recording of data registry which captured every transaction
in Lentils export.
EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
The analysis of this study is based on different
econometric models and descriptive statistics. Semi-log
trend function was fitted to the data following the procedure
of Gujarati to find out the trend and estimate the growth
rate of production, area and yield and also the volume and
value of the export of Lentils in Ethiopia.
If yt denotes the observation (e.g. agricultural production,
productivity, or area) at time t and r is the compound
growth rate, model employed for estimating r is based on
yt = yo (1 + r) t ........................................... (1)
The usual practice is to assume a multiplicative error-term
exp (ε) so that the model may be linearized by means of
logarithmic transformation,
𝑙𝑛𝑦𝑡 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑡 + 𝑒 ........................................... (2)
Where, a = ln (yo ), and b = ln ( 1 + r ). Equation 2 is then
fitted to data using “method of least squares” and
goodness of fit is assessed by the coefficient of
determination R2 . Finally, the compound growth rate is
estimated by,
r^ = exp (b^ ) – 1 ........................................... (3)
RESULTS AND DESCUSSION
Trends in production, area and yield
The total area of land under Lentil production, total volume
of production and yield has been growing over years. The
total area of land under production has been reached
113,685 ha in 2016 from 45,060 ha during 1993 (Table 1).
Production rate showed an increase from 25,034 tons in
1993 to 166,274tons in 2016 when the highest production
is registered in the year. On the other hand, a positive
annual percentage change has been registered in the
production of the crop Lentil except during 1994, 1997,
1999, 2002, 2003, 2010 and 2014. And also a positive
annual percentage change has been registered in area,
except in 1997, 2002, 2003, 2009, 2010 and 2014.
Despite, the fluctuations in the percentage changes over
the years, Lentil productivity has revealed a growth trend.
As presented in Figure 2, the productivity of Lentil in the
early 1990s was 0.6 t/ha while in late 2000s, it has grown
to 1 t/ha, and in 2016, it reached 1.5 t/ha.
Table 1. Annual percentage change in area, production and yield
Year
Total area
in ha
Annual percentage
change in area
Total production
in tone
Annual percentage
change in production
Yield
(tone/ha)
Annual percentage
change in yield
1993 45,060 25,034 0.6
1994 48,140 7 24,333 -3 0.5 -9
1995 61,870 29 37,904 56 0.6 21
1996 83,360 35 40,311 6 0.5 -21
1997 50,070 -40 33,456 -17 0.7 38
1998 66,110 32 36,137 8 0.5 -18
1999 66,870 1 33,440 -7 0.5 -9
2000 75,000 12 59,000 76 0.8 57
2001 95,000 27 65,250 11 0.7 -13
2002 60,138 -37 38,430 -41 0.6 -7
2003 52,000 -14 35,000 -9 0.7 5
2004 52,062 0 35,275 1 0.7 1
2005 76,642 47 54,555 55 0.7 5
2006 84,895 11 57,603 6 0.7 -5
2007 97,110 14 81,094 41 0.8 23
2008 107,428 11 94,103 16 0.9 5
2009 105,956 -1 123,777 32 1.2 33
2010 77,334 -27 80,952 -35 1.0 -10
2011 109,895 42 128,009 58 1.2 11
2012 123,718 13 151,500 18 1.2 5
2013 125,830 2 159,121 5 1.3 3
2014 98,869 -21 137,354 -14 1.4 10
2015 100,693 2 147,637 7 1.5 6
2016 113,685 13 166,274 13 1.5 0
Authors calculation based on data from FAOSTAT
3. Trends in Production and Export of Lentils in Ethiopia
Int. J. Plant Breed. Crop Sci. 565
Fig. 1. Trend in Land area coverage and total volume of
Lentils Production
Fig. 2. Trend in Lentil productivity
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
The simple linear regression functions were fitted for
estimating the response of production of Lentil due to the
change of its respective area and yield. And productions of
Lentils were significantly increased. The coefficient of
production on area and yield were0.796 and 93468.677
respectively, as shown inTable 2 below.
Table 2: Regression analysis - to test the dependency of
production on area and yield of Lentil
variables Regression coefficient t-value P(T<=t)
two tail
constant -69670.768 -18.772 0.000
Area 0.796 11.703 0.000
yield 93468.677 18.250 0.000
GROWTH RATE
Table 3 shows that the area, yield and production of Lentils
have a significant (significant at 1%) positive trends of 4, 5
and 9 percent per annum over the study period
respectively.
Table 3. Growth rate in area, production and yield of
Lentils
Area Production Yield
CAGR 4* 9* 5*
Trends in export volume and value of Lentils
Ethiopia has been exporting some quantities of Lentils to
various parts of the world since 1997. Figure 3 shows
exports of Lentils from 1997 to 2016. The period under
analysis opened with low volumes of Lentils exports and
this was followed by substantial increase in volume of
Lentils exports during 2007. Between 2006 and 2009 trend
in the volume of dried lentils, shelled has been increasing
steadily. In 1997, the total quantity of Lentils exported from
Ethiopia to Israel and Djibouti was 18,470 kg. From these
18,120 kg was exported to Djibouti and incurred about
257,979 birr. And after some fluctuations it increased to
1,728,634 kg during 2002 and reached its climax
12,947,165 kg in 2009. Ethiopia is exporting shelled dried
lentils. And this indicates that, value added products of
Lentils has not been given much attention to export to
different countries in the world, so small micro enterprises
and others interested body can engage in the production
as well as processing of Lentils.
Fig 3: Trend in export volume of Lentils
In terms of value, the period under analysis opened with
relatively higher values of Lentils exports and this was
followed by substantial decrease in value of Lentils
exports. The export value was 173,032 birr in 1997 and
reached its climax during 2014 which was 25,658,382 birr
(fig 3). The period under review closed with relatively low
export values of Lentils. The trend in value of Lentils
export was generally does not show any significant
increase. And this shows that Lentils was not given more
attention as an income generating means in the
international market.
Fig 4: Trends in export value of Lentils
4. Trends in Production and Export of Lentils in Ethiopia
Bezabeh and Belay 566
Trend in Value-to-volume ratio (VVR) for exported
Lentils
According to Bezabeh E (2017) the trend in the export
value-to-volume ratio (VVR) is an indicator of whether the
product is either gaining or losing value from movement in
world prices. It gives an indication of the extent to which
the product can be considered a relatively high-value
export. In other words, VVR is the amount of local currency
earned from a kilogram of export item over time and
calculated by dividing total value in birr by total volume in
kilogram of the export item.
From figure 5 we can reveal that, the VVR for exported
Ethiopian lentils fluctuated during the study period. As a
result of this the volume of the exported Lentils has not
been increasing. Therefore, the country has not been
benefited with the crop in the international market.
Fig 5: Trend in Value-to-volume ratio (VVR) for exported
Lentils
On the other hand, from Table 4 we can see that the
average VVR for exported Ethiopian Lentils during the
study period has been birr 10/kg. The highest VVR in
exporting Lentils from Ethiopia was birr 65/kg during 2012,
whereas the least VVR of birr 0.1/kg was registered during
2016.
Table 4: VVR for exported Ethiopian lentils
Year Total Volume Total Value VVR
1997 18,470 262,513 14.2
1998 29,100 101,989 3.5
1999 35,000 144,917 4.1
2000 124,969 563,949 4.5
2001 835,025 2,735,489 3.3
2002 1,728,634 4,920,650 2.8
2003 855,437 2,827,114 3.3
2004 992,657 3,340,338 3.4
2005 1,414,853 4,956,659 3.5
2006 627,968 1,912,673 3.0
2007 9,606,092 52,005,106 5.4
2008 10,813,239 81,658,005 7.6
2009 12,947,165 137,523,643 10.6
2010 3,053,134 43,313,296 14.2
2011 1,152,202 18,316,129 15.9
2012 220 14,330 65.1
Year Total Volume Total Value VVR
2013 40,000 198,974 5.0
2014 10,000 198,710 19.9
2015 - -
2016 170,000 17,563 0.1
Major Export Destinations of Ethiopian Lentils
The exports destination countries are summarized in table
5. The VVR for each destination country is also provided
which help us compare countries based on the VVR and
made decision which country can provide better
advantage for Ethiopia’s Lentils. Accordingly, the countries
for which Ethiopia’s Lentils has been exported includes
Bangladesh, Djibouti, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Kenya,
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sudan, Turkey, United
Arab Emirates and Yemen.
Pakistan and United Arab Emirates were the highest
volume recipient countries for Ethiopian Lentils with the
percentage share of 20 % and 16 % respectively. The total
volume of export destined to Pakistan during the study
period was 8,808,933.8kg and the total volume exported
to the second large recipient country United Arab Emirates
has been 7,279,225 kg.
Italy was the destination country from which highest VVR
from Lentils export is received. Ethiopia earns birr 25/kg
from export of Lentils to Italy. While, the rest of major
export destinations exhibited lower VVR.
The export value of 1kg of Lentils per kg for export
destined to largest recipient country of Ethiopian Lentils
export- Pakistan was birr 7 and that of United Arab
Emirates was birr 9 which are below the average. This
implies that Ethiopia is exporting much of its Lentils to
countries provide lowest VVR, implying that the country is
losing advantage in the international market.
Table 5. Export Destinations of Ethiopian Lentils
Destination Net Mass
(Kg)
FOB Value
(ETB)
VVR
Bangladesh 3,562,501 22,678,029 6.4
Benin 4,500 22,333 5.0
Bulgaria 215,000 1,402,741 6.5
Canada 100 385 3.9
China 540,778 3,325,084 6.1
Djibouti 4,519,700 24,468,965 5.4
Egypt 1,096,500 12,950,302 11.8
Germany 200 876 4.4
Great Britain 104,790 438,426 4.2
Greece 21,100 75,805 3.6
India 1,364,816 9,327,095 6.8
Indonesia 499,400 2,185,913 4.4
Iran 76,000 470,592 6.2
Israel 284,518 1,520,694 5.3
Italy 370 9,085 24.6
5. Trends in Production and Export of Lentils in Ethiopia
Int. J. Plant Breed. Crop Sci. 567
Table 5 continue. Export Destinations of Ethiopian Lentils
Destination
Net Mass
(Kg)
FOB Value
(ETB)
VVR
Jordan 266,000 1,788,912 6.7
Kenya 671,600 7,507,521 11.2
Mauritius 42,000 461,397 11.0
Netherlands 131,835 586,445 4.4
Pakistan 8,808,934 57,062,450 6.5
Panama 62,874 177,070 2.8
Philippines 109,780 485,794 4.4
Saudi Arabia 2,467,360 23,104,222 9.4
Singapore 1,476,780 14,720,283 10.0
South Africa 44,000 264,017 6.0
Sudan 3,606,322 44,884,744 12.4
Sweden 100 505 5.0
Switzerland 283,912 3,132,747 11.0
Syrian Arab Republic 220,000 2,656,759 12.1
Turkey 4,097,008 41,708,017 10.2
Turks and Caicos
Islands 115,000 682,752
5.9
Ukraine 230,000 2,303,610 10.0
United Arab Emirates 7,279,225 65,170,550 9.0
United Germany 200 610 3.0
United Kingdom 5,802 16,613 2.9
United States 258,108 1,479,188 5.7
Yemen 1,817,222 7,941,514 4.4
Fig 6: Export destinations of Ethiopian lentils
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
The area and production of Lentils in Ethiopia shows a
significant compounded growth rate of 4 percent and 9
percent respectively while, the productivity show 5 percent
during the study period.
On the other hand, the export volume of Lentils from
Ethiopia during the study period was about 2,339,693 kg
on average. And also, the average value Ethiopia incurred
in exporting Lentils during the study period was
18,684,845 birr. If we take the look at the trends in value
to volume ratio of Ethiopian Lentils during the study period,
it exhibited its maximum VVR of birr 65/kg during 2012,
whereas a minimum VVR of birr 0.1/kg in 2016. Italy was
the destination country from which highest value/kg (birr
25/kg) from Lentils export was received.
In terms of volume, Pakistan and United Arab Emirates
were the highest volume recipient countries for Ethiopian
Lentils with the percentage share of 20% and16%
respectively. But the export value of 1kg of Lentils per kg
for export destined to largest recipient country of Ethiopian
Lentils export- Pakistan was birr 7 and that of United Arab
Emirates was birr 9 which indicates us that, we are losing
the advantage in the international market.
Ethiopia is exporting large proportion of its Lentils to
countries that provide lowest VVR. In order to enhance the
revenue, the country generate from its Lentils production
countries that provide higher VVR has to be targeted.
REFERENCES
Bezabeh E (2017). Trends in production and export of
Gesho/Rhamnus prinoids in Ethiopia. International
Journal of Plant Breeding and Crop Science, 4(2): 243-
250
Chilot Y. Yigezu A. and Aden A. (2016). Diffusion of
Improved lentil varieties in Ethiopia: Ethiopian Inistitute
of Agricultural Researc-research report
CSA, Central Statistics Agency. 2016. Agricultural Sample
Survey 2016 (2010 E.C.). Volume I. Report on Area and
Production of Major Crops (Private Peasant Holdings,
Meher Season). Statistical Bulletin, Addis Ababa
Daniel Admasu, Firew Mekbib and Asnake Fikre.(2015).
Genetic Improvement of Lentil [Lens Culinaris Medikus]
Between 1980 and 2010 in Ethiopia. Malaysian Journal
of Medical and Biological Research, Vol 2(3), 284-292.
David Karanja. (2016). Legumess Crops Grown in
Ethiopia, Kenya and United Republic of Tanzania for
Local and Export Market. International Trade Centre,
Eastern Africa Grain Council.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,
FAOSTAT database (FAOSTAT, 2016), available at
http://faostat.fao.org/
Matny ON. Lentil (Lens Culinaris Medikus) Current Status
and Future Prospect of Production in Ethiopia. Adv
Plants Agric Res. 2015;2(2):45‒53.
Negussie Tadesse.(2004). Epidemiology of Lentil Rust in
Ethiopia with Special Reference to Disease Progress
and Yield Loss Assessment. Faculty of Natural and
Agricultural Sciences, Department of Plant Sciences
(Plant Pathology), University of the Free State, South
Africa.
S.Kumer, S. Barpete, J.Kumar, P.Gubta and
A.Sarker.(2013). Global Lentil Production: Constraints
and Strategies. SATSA Mukhapatra - Annual Technical
Issue 17 : 2013.