1. 1
ENERGY CRISES AND
HYDROPOWER IN PAKISTAN
Center of Excellence in Water Resource Engineering
University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore
Muhammad Imran Azam

2. 2
Energy Scenario
• Unfortunately in Pakistan, inspite of tall claims and
rhetoric by all governments, real solutions to meet the
energy requirements of the nation have never been
formulated or achieved.
• As a consequence, Pakistan economic, industrial and
social growth has been greatly constrained.
• Due to an increasing gap in energy demand versus
capacity, while successive governments put power
generation and availability of gas as a priority on their
agenda, unfortunately, all plans of providing adequate
and affordable energy to the citizens have failed to
materialize.
• In reality it is due to paucity of a VISION, absence of
robust planning and of a commitment to national
development.

3. 4
Roots of Pakistan Energy Crises
As a consequence the energy shortages have snowballed with
major supply chain and infrastructure gaps, namely;
▫ The Electric Power Sector; has been in static non-growth
mode from 2003 till today, and the peak supply-demand gap
has grown from 3,000 to 5,000 MW (1,000 MW in 2006)
▫ In the Gas Sector; the demand - supply gap seriously
emerged in 2007 has grown to about 800 MMCFD in 2009 due
to installed import projects and shortfall will increase upto
11,092 MMCFD by 2025
▫ Inadequate Energy Infrastructure; supply to end customers
both for electric power as well as fuel oil for Power Plants has
been constrained
▫ Short Supply of Gas/Oil to Power Plants; the crisis has been
aggravated due to gas supply shortfall and reduced oil supply
due to non-payments
▫ Transmission Loses are above 21%, with KESE upto 34%

4. 4
Current Energy Crises
• Current Energy Annual Shortfall goes even upto 5,000
MW
• Minimum 2,000 MW additional capacity is annually
required to maintain the current GDP growth rate with an
investment of US$ 4-6 Billion per year in the energy
sector
• Energy supplies must increase upto 40% of current
levels by end 2010-11 and to 80% by 2015
• Annual Increase in Energy Demand: 8-12%
• Current Total Installed Capacity: 22,195 MW
• Peak Demand: 13,000 – 18,000
MW
• Today’s Energy Shortfall: 3,059 MW

5. 5
Pakistan Primary Energy Mix
Energy Mix Sector Overview (Jan 2011):
• Total Installed Capacity: 22,195 MW
▫ PEPCO 19,528 MW
▫ KESC 2,667 MW
• Thermal (fossil-fuels): 15,000 MW (67% share)
• Hydropower: 6,595 MW (31% share)
(in summers)
(In 1995 the generation mix of Hydro-Thermal was 50% - 50%)
• Nuclear: 462 MW (2% share)
• Coal: 0.16 MW
• Renewables: 42 MW (new addition
(Wind/Solar) since 2008)

6. 6
Hydropower Energy
• Present demand of electricity in country in actual is
above 17,000 MW and will be 30,000 MW by year 2017
• Energy deficit was 3,000 to 5,000 MW in 2010 and
likely to rise upto 10,000 MW by 2020
• Identified Hydropower Sites - 41,722 MW
• Hydropower Potential - 100,000 MW
• 70 % of hydro potential lies in KPK
• Current Power Hydropower Generation
(6,595 MW):
▫ Punjab - 1,698 MW
▫ KPK - 3,767 MW
▫ AJK - 94 MW
▫ GB - 1,036 MW

7. 7
Hydropower Energy
• Under-Construction Hydropower (1,943 MW):
▫ Punjab - 98.5 MW
▫ KPK - 611 MW
▫ AJK - 1,202.5 MW
▫ GB - 30.8 MW
▫ Feasibilities under preparation (13,023 MW):
▫ Punjab - 3,814.4 MW
▫ KPK - 324.4 MW
▫ AJK - 65.50 MW
▫ GB - 8,754 MW

8. PUBLIC SECTOR PROJECTS 8
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
l Nandipur 425 MW
l Chichoki Mallian 526 MW
l Guddu 750 MW
l Neelum Jehlum 969 MW
l Jinnah Low Head 96 MW
l Duber Khwar 130 MW
l Allai Khwar 121 MW
l Keyal Khwar 125 MW
l Khan Khwar 72 MW
l Golen Gol 106 MW
l Kurram Tangi 83 MW
l others

9. HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL 9
IN PAKISTAN
 Munda Dam Multipurpose Project - 740 MW
 Tarbela Dam Extension Project - 960 MW
 Kohala Hydropower Project - 1100 MW
 Bunji Hydropower Project - 7100 MW
 Kurram Tangi Dam Multipurpose - 84 MW
 Keyal Kewar Hydropower - 122 MW
 Golen Gol Hydropower - 106 MW
 Dasu Hydropower project - 4320 MW
 Lower Spar Gah - 567 MW
 Lower Palas Valley - 621 MW
 Akhori Dam - 600 MW

10. HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL 10
IN PAKISTAN
 Thakot Hydropower Project - 2800 MW
 Patan Extension Project - 2800 MW
 Phandar Hydropower Project - 80 MW
 Basho Hydropower Project - 28 MW
 Harpo Hydropower - 33 MW
 Yulbo Hydropower - 3300 MW
 Suki Kinari Hydropower - 840 MW
 Matiltan Hydropower project - 84 MW
 Kalabagh Dam ? - 3600 MW

11. LOCATION OF HYDROPOWER UNDER PPIB
11
Kaigah (548 MW)
Shushgai Zhendoli (ADB ) (102 MW) N.A.
CHINA
MW) Shogo Sin (ADB GILGIT
Loan) (127 AFGHANISTAN
MW) Chitral
Kalam
Dasu
Gabral Kalam (101 Behrain MUZAFFARABAD
Kaghan
MW) AZAD KASHMIR
PESHAWAR Mansehra Bagh
Kalam Asrit (197 MW) ISLAMABAD
Palandry
KHYBER
Asrit Kedam (215 MW)
PAKHTUN
KHAWA INDIA
•
Madyan (157 MW) •
Sehra (130 MW)
Kotli (100 MW)
• Gulpur (100 MW)
Suki Kinari (840 • Rajdhani (132 MW)

12. HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL 12
FROM REGIONAL DAMS
 Nai Gaj Dam - 2.3 MW
 Hingol Dam - 768 kW
 Ghabir Dam - 50 kW
 Naulong Dam - 3.5 MW
 Bara Multi-purpose Dam - 5.8 MW

13. 13
MICRO / MINI HYDROPOWER
POTENTIAL
 Overall Capacity - 2000 MW
 Chitral (Installed) - 10 MW
(Planned) - 5 MW
 GB - 5 MW
 Others - ---- MW

14. 14
HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL IN PUNJAB
 Overall Capacity - 600 MW
 Barrages - 400 MW
 Canal Falls - 200 MW

15. HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL 15
IN PAKISTAN
 Diamer Basha Dam Project – 4,500 MW

16. 16
HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL IN PAKISTAN
Swat & Scheme below
Chitral River 50 MW
4653 1463 MW
MW
Jhelum
River
Basin 6819 MW
43786 MW
Indus River
Basin

17. 17
Natural Gas Energy
• Natural Gas is the third source of
energy
• Currently, natural gas supplies 49 percent
of Pakistan’s energy needs.
• Pakistan had 26.83 trillion cubic feet (Tcf)
of proven natural gas reserves.
• Pakistan ranks third in the world for use of
natural gas as a motor fuel, behind Brazil
and Argentina.

18. 18
Natural Gas Energy
• Annual increase in gas demand is @ 10%
• Gas and Oil contributes > 70% of the energy needs
• Pakistan has limited gas reserves (30-40 years)
and its domestic / commercial uses have left little
scope to use it in a big way for power generation.
• Government plans to generate 7,880 MW of
electricity through gas by end of 2010. Out of it,
4,860 MW is to be generated by firing natural gas
based on around 60 per cent capacity expansion.
But, it is linked with gas import option from Iran and
Turkmenistan.

19. 19
Natural Gas Energy
• Current Natural Gas demand is 5,000 MMCFD, while Supply
is 4,600 MMCFD
• Gas shortfall Summers = 250 MMCFD
Winters = 800 MMCFD
• CNG Stations > 3,000 and more than 2 million cars on CNG
• Sever imbalance gas in demand and supply is expected by
2025:
Gas Production 2025 13,259 MMCFD
Gas Shortage 2025 11,092 MMCFD
• Need to import 500 MMCFD LNG from Qatar
• 1 billion cubic feet per day from Iran by 2014
• Laying of 800 km gas pipeline from Iran to Nawab Shah will
generate 4,500 MW

20. 20
Iran-Pakistan-India - Gas Energy
• The idea was conceived by a young Pakistani civil engineer
Malik Aftab Ahmed Khan in mid 1950s,
• Project was conceptualized in 1989
• Discussions between the governments of Iran and Pakistan
started in 1994 and preliminary agreement signed in 1995
• This agreement foresaw construction of a pipeline from
South Pars gas field to Karachi in Pakistan
• On April 12, 2010, Iran announced that it has completed
construction of 1,000 kilometers of the pipeline out of the
1,100 kilometers portion on Iranian soil. On this Iranian
ambassador to Pakistan said that "Iran has done her job and
it now depends on Pakistan".
• The construction of the pipeline on Iranian side is on pace to
be completed by 2011.
• "the ball is in Pakistan’s court now and it depends on them
how long they take to complete work on the project"

21. 21
Iran-Pakistan-India - Gas Energy
• The 2,775-kilometre (1,724 mi) pipeline will be supplied
from the South Pars field. It will start from Asalouyeh
and stretch over 1,100 kilometres (680 mi) through
Iran.
• In Pakistan, it will pass through Balochistan and
Sindh.In Khuzdar, a branch would spur-off to Karachi,
while the main pipeline will continue towards Multan.
From Multan, the pipeline may be expanded to Delhi.
• For the security reasons, India has proposed an
alternative offshore route from Iran to the maritime
boundary between India and Pakistan off Kutch. From
there one branch to run to Pakistan while other branch
to run to Kutch.
• The initial capacity of the pipeline will be 22 bcm/year
of natural gas per year, which is expected to be raised
later to 55 bcm/year.The pipeline will have diameter of

22. 22
Iran-Pakistan-India - Gas Energy

23. 23
Nuclear Energy
• Pakistan has around 30 thousand metric tons of uranium
(308)
• Pakistan has two nuclear reactors of 425 MW power and
representing only 2.4 % of the electricity production
• Chashma-II of 500 MW with the help of China is under
construction after a lapse of 25 years
• Pakistan is an un-recognized nuclear weapon state and
there are international embargoes on the transfer of
nuclear technology
• This obviously puts a limit on full exploitation in nuclear
energy for power generation on a larger scale.
• Goal is to produced 8,800 MW of Nuclear Electricity by
the year 2030 (requirement will be - 6,000 tons of
uranium).
• Pakistan has 1,000 uranium reserves (4 mined, 9 potential
reserves.
• Uranium favorable rocks 12 % of total areas of Pakistan
• 65 % of favorable sites have been scanned

24. 24
Coal Energy – Pakistan Perspective
• Pakistan produces only 0.2 % of its power through
coal.
• The current coal production in pakistan is only 3.5
million tons per year,
• In Pakistan, there are plans to build only two 300
MW coal-fired plants at Thar.
• Mostly used for the brick and cement industry.
• Coal has typical problems, such as a high sulphur
content (it produces sulphur dioxide, the source of
acid rain),
• Mineral matter content (leading to ash and
pollution problems),
• Carbon dioxide emission (contributing to global
warming) and high moisture content.

25. 25
Coal Energy -Thar Coal Utilization
• Thar desert is 9th largest desert of the world
• Worlds Single 7th largest contiguous Coal reserve field
extends over an area of 9,100 Sq km
• Reserves of 175 – 185 billions tons exceed oil equivalent
reserves of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran (375 billion barrels).
• Coal reserve is 30 times more than gas reserve in Pakistan.
• Phased development can lead to 400 – 600 mt /year coal
mining in 20 years.
• Pakistan’s current energy requirements can be met by Coal
alone by utilizing only 20% and generating 20,000 MW for 30
years
• Just 2% usage of Thar Coal can Produce 20,000 Mega
Watts of Electricity for next 40 years
• The coal power generation would cost Pakistan PKR 5.67
per unit while power generated by Independent Power
Projects cost PKR 9.27

26. 26
Coal Energy -Thar Coal Utilization
• The current value of our coal reserves is estimated at
US $ 8 trillion and if converted into sophisticated form
of energy like electricity, the value goes up to Us $ 25
trillion.
• In addition to Electric Power, LNG, Chemicals,
Fertilizer, etc can be produced for self consumption
and surplus can be exported
• Contribution to GDP in plants, products, services,
employment, etc, would be in the range of $200b-
$300b which exceeds Pakistan’s current GDP of US $
170 billion
• Thar Coal is God’s Gift of “Black Gold” to the People
of Pakistan and will ensure the Nation’s Energy &
Economic Future

27. Black Gold 27

28. 28
RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL IN
PAKISTAN
• Renewable Energy Potential:
▫ Wind: 0. 346 Million MW
▫ Solar: >2 Million MW
▫ Biogas: 1,800 MW
▫ Waste to Power: 500 MW
▫ Mini & Small Hydel: 2,000 MW
▫ Geothermal: 550 MW
• Identified Wind potential of >40,000 MW exists in 180 km
long Gharo-Keti Bandar wind corridor
• Off-grid initiatives have the potential to relieve the grid of
2,000 MW during short - mid term
• Over 30 Million hectares of land potentially available for
energy plantations

29. 29
RENEWABLE ENERGY – WIND
POTENTIAL IN PAKISTAN
• In Pakistan, smaller windmills are now
visible, such as in Badin, Thattha, Dadu,
Jamshoro and above all Gharo, where
SZABIST set up an experimental research
station many years ago.
• The Sindh Government has recently
announced plans to build a 50 MW wind
farm in the vicinity in the coastal region at
Gharo.

30. 30
Wind Energy
• Wind energy will help to reduce the country’s oil-
import bill and cost of power generation less
vulnerable to fluctuation in oil prices
• Windfall from sale of carbon credits will make wind
power economically attractive proposition for meeting
our future electricity demand
• Pakistan has a huge potential to develop wind power.
The “Wind Corridor” in coastal area of Sindh alone
has the capacity to generate @ 40,000 MW and AEDB
has put in place a renewable energy policy that is one
of the comprehensive and investor-friendly in the
world
• Large Wind power projects can start generating
electricity within two years, however;
• Small wind turbines/mills to be promoted ASAP

31. 31
Wind Energy
• Wind corridor extends from Keti-Bandar to Karachi
to Gharo in Southern Sindh
• Wind data do not show promising results, as annual
mean wind speed of @ 4m/s, is too low for large
commercial viable projects
• Specific costs are still too high to assure economic
viability
• Wind farms (in the range of 100 MW) exists in
south-east of Karachi of Sindh province
• Another 41 sites are investigated by PMD for wind
mapping and real ground assessment

32. 32

33. 33
RENEWABLE ENERGY - SOLAR
• Solar power (photovoltaic or thermal) is another
alternative energy source option that is generally
considered feasible for tropical and equatorial
countries.
• Even though the accepted standard is 1,000 W/m² of
peak power at sea level, an average solar panel (or
photovoltaic — PV — panel), delivers an average of
only 19-56W/m².
• Solar plants are generally used in cases where smaller
amounts of power are required at remote locations. PV
is also the most expensive of all options making it less
attractive.

34. SOLAR POTENTIAL IN PAKISTAN
34

35. 35
RENEWABLE ENERGY - GEOTHERMAL
• Pakistan can be benefited by harnessing the
geothermal option of energy generation as
substitute energy in areas where sources exist.
• Most of the high enthalpy geothermal resources of
the world are within the seismic belts associated
with zones of crustal weakness like the seismo-
tectonic belt that passes through Pakistan having
inherited a long geological history of geotectonic
events.
• Present study of the geotectonic framework
suggests that Pakistan should not be lacking in
commercially exploitable sources of geothermal
energy. This view is further strengthened by:

36. 36
RENEWABLE ENERGY - GEOTHERMAL
• Geo-pressurized systems related to basin subsidence,
• Seismo-tectonic or suture-related systems, and
• Systems related to Neogene–Quaternary volcanism.
• A few localities, scattered sporadically all over the
country, have been studied to evaluate only some of
the basic characteristic parameters of the geothermal
prospects.
• The present review study the geothermal activities of
varying intensity and nature, associated with different
geotectonic domains, and reveals the viable potential
of the geothermal environments, which could be
exploited for the generation of sustainable indigenous
energy in Pakistan.

37. 37
RENEWABLE ENERGY - BIOGAS
• Pakistan is meeting 1.50% of its energy requirements
from biomass, whose consumption is increasing
average at the rate of over 5% per annum.
• About 62% of biomass users living in rural areas
collect biomass for their use and only 24% buy wood.
In urban areas 14% of biomass consumers buy, only
12% of these collect wood for their living and 66% use
natural gas.
• At present almost 1,200 plants has been installed and
out of the 98% are functional.
• In addition, the next five year target is 10,000 number
of plants. After that program, 27% of the total
potentiality will recover.

38. 38
Energy Planning
• Per capita energy consumption is an indicator to measure
the prosperity of any society. It is approximately 500 kwh
in Pakistan whereas the world average is 2,500 kwh which
is five times greater than that of ours
• What hurdles are stopping other big players around the
world to enter Pakistan’s energy sector?
• What is the role of Gas distribution companies so far?
• Are the citizens of Pakistan being robbed by energy giants
with ever rising utility bills?
• When will the nation have “load shedding free” electric
supply?
• Have we been able to make long term contracts with the
countries to provide un-interrupted supply of energy
resources?

39. 39
Energy Planning
• Will the government be able to provide enough sources to
the citizens for a sustainable economic growth?
• Have we lost the race for acquiring maximum energy
resources for future survival?
• How much depletion in energy resources!
• What is Government doing to ensure a sustainable supply
of energy resources for economic growth?
• What strategic steps are being taken to acquire energy
resources in future?
• Is private sector willing to invest in Pakistan’s oil & gas,
hydro, coal and renewable industry? Specially Coal and
Hydro
• What are the incentives being offered to the foreign
players to continue working in the exploration sector?

40. 40
Energy Planning
• Pakistan needs to aggressively pursue ways to increase
its power-generating capacity. The best options
available today are Nuclear and Coal, followed by
Wind and Solar. Hydroelectricity can only be pursued
after all environmental, ecological and geopolitical
issues are settled with a consensus among all four
provinces.
• Pakistan needs to set up at least a Dozen Nuclear
Power Plants, large coal fired plants, wind farms and
solar plants in the next 10 years to generate about
20,000 MW of electricity. We need to invest at least a
billion $ a year in developing the infrastructure and
establishing power plants using nuclear, coal, wind
and solar technology. We need to cut back on non-
development expenditures by at least one billion

41. What Next?
41
• Set-Up National Energy Authority (NEA), which should
act as an Energy Statuary Body
• NEA must be Independent and Focal entity
• NEA lays Strategic Planning and Energy Policy
• NEA Prepares Integrated and Comprehensive
National Energy Plan for Short/Medium/Long term
goals
• NEA must be strong Monitoring Authority for all
Energy Sector Projects as per agreed road maps and
milestones

42. 42
What Next?
• Two key elements of a possible solution are: change of
attitude and change in lifestyles.

43. 43
MITIGATION POTENTIAL
“The world we live in is not inherited to us by our
forefathers, rather it has been loaned to us by our
future generations”
African Proverb
WE NEED TO ACT, NOW

44. Raw Diamonds of Thar Coal Reserves being overlooked 44

45. 45
45