A short history of energy in past civilizations The actual global situation Four scenarios for the future of energy

1. FUTURE OF ENERGY
MICHEL SALOFF-COSTE
2015 05 15
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

2. Future of energy
1. A short history of energy in past
civilizations
2. The actual global situation
3. Four scenarios for the future of energy
4. Scenarios implementations for Nordic
countries
5. Discussion on the future of energy

3. 1. A short history of energy in past
civilizations

4. • Antique world
– Biomass
– Manpower /animal power
• Middle-ages / Renaissance
– Hydraulic and wind-power
• Industrial revolution
– Coal and steam-engine
– Oil and internal-combustion
engine
– Electricity and information

5. 5

7. 2. The actual global situation

8. • Fossil fuels dominant
- coal, oil, natural gas
• Growth of the demand
- emerging countries
• New concerns
- energy supply
- global warming

9. Share of the world primary energy supply
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Biomass and
waste
Hydroelectricity
Source: IEA (WEO 2012) – 2010 Figures

10. 1 toe / cap.
2 toe / cap.
2000 20501970
1,5
1,7
2010 202019901980
1,35
2,1
3 toe/ cap.
2030 2040
Trend
Limitation scenario
Degrowth scenario
Evolution of the energy consumption per capita (world)

11. IPCC Scenario 4 th report

12. Projections of global average surface
temperature show we’re heading for
a climatic state far outside the range
of variation of the last 1000 years.
We are on the way to making the
world hotter in the 21st century than
it has been in the last million years.
Temperature, past and future

13. • Computer simulations by the
Princeton Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Lab
• Warming under a doubling of
CO2 from the pre-industrial level
• Warming under a quadrupling
from pre-industrial level.
• Under quadrupling CO2, North
hemisphere mid-continent
average warming is 8 - 12 C

14. Global sea-level rise as recorded by satellite measurements (upper line with linear
trend), with IPCC projections (2001) and range of uncertainty

15. 2 toe 4 toe
5
CO2emissions
/cap.(t/year)
1 toe
10
Sc. I 2°( 2 - 3)
Sc. II - III - IV 4°( 3 - 6)
Sc. V - VI 5 °( 4 - 8)
Energy precarity
Ecological catastrophe
2050:
9.3 Billion people
Energy consumption (toe/cap.year)
80% fossil
60% fossil
3 toe
« Growth »
« Technology »
« Degrowth »
« Carbon intensive »
50% fossil
Energy - climate scenario

16. 210020502000
Non fossil
Energy share
%
100
50
0
100
50
Europe ?
World
Energy transition deployment

17. Long term scenario
1800 22502050
Long term scenario (I)
Energy consumption
per capita
Long term scenario (II)
Long term scenario (III)
Nuclear (fission/fusion) ?
Renewable energy sources ?
Collapse

18. Population breakdown in case of a planetary
state shift
1,7 Billion
inhabitants
7 Billions
inhabitants
1900 2100
World
population
9 Billions
inhabitants
2011 20501950
Breakdown
New Middle-ages
and slow recovery

19. COMPLEXITY
Higher far of equilibrium
Lower entropy
Higher density of free energy flow
Higher structural complexity
Higher organization levels
TIME
Dynamic stability on level n
Introduction of
fluctuations
Evolution 2nd order
jumping transition
Breakdown, collapse
Possible new levels
(not realized yet)

20. Find a pragmatic way
• Find a pragmatic way, compatible with general
interest
• No solution really satisfactory for global warming.
May be a too big problem for humanity to solve
• High risk of global collapse: need to combine all the
solutions (reduce the demand, diversify the sources,
innovate)
• Define coherent and rational, rather than
ideological or emotional choices

21. Reducing the energy consumption
• Sobriety, frugality
- Using less matter and energy
• Efficiency
- Technology
• New ways of life
- Autonomy, resilience
- Infrastructures

22. Progress and potential disruptions
o Incremental progress rather than disruptions
o Comparatively slow progress (shale gas)
o Huge investments required for a low-carbon economy
o Energy storage remains a major bottle-neck
o Surprises cannot be excluded!

23. Energy choices and world view
United States, China:
• Power and domination: cheap energy
• United States: to control space and
communications, shale gas
• China: to became the World center,
coal
Europe:
• The European dream
• Post-industrial, end-of-the-work
society
• Internet-like access to energy

24. Primary energy consumption and CO2 emissions
CO2emissions/inh(t/year)
Energy consumption (toe/inh year)
2 4 6 8 toe
9
1 3 5 7
18
United-States
9
China
France
Germany
Japan
India
Denmark
1,5 t CO2 / toe
2,7 t CO2 / toe
World
Year 2011, source BP St. Rev.+ EDGAR Data base
Sweden
3,7 t CO2 / toe
Austria

25. 3. Four scenarios for the future of
energy

26. Scenario Purple: --
Scenario Red : +-
Scenario Orange : ++
Scenario Yellow : -+
Four scenarios for the future of energy

27. Collapse
High probability in case of business as usual
End of big mammals
Planet will recover
Mostly bad for humans and animals
Scenario Purple: --

28. Clash of civilizations
As resources will be rare, cultures and continents will fight
again each others
Real politic logic
Huntington vision
American, Chinese and Russian temptation
Perhaps no winner this time!
Scenario Red : +-

29. Technology break through
Nano Info Bio Convergence
Trans-humanism
The Californian and scientists “way”
High inequality, social disruption and ecological disinterest
Scenario Orange : ++

30. Scenario Yellow : -+
Sustainable development
Transformation Techno Socio Eco
Global peace
Knowledge society
Systemic approach of the economy, society and ecology
Trans-disciplinarian vision

31. 4. Scenarios’ implementations for
Nordic countries

32. CO2emissions/inh(t/year)
Energy consumption (toe/inh year)
2 4 6 8 toe
9
1 3 5 7
18
United-States
9
China
France
Germany
Japan
India
Denmark
1,5 t CO2 / toe
2,7 t CO2 / toe
World
Year 2011, source BP St. Rev.+ EDGAR Data base
Sweden
3,7 t CO2 / toe
Austria
Primary energy consumption and CO2 emissions

33. Samsø has a new attraction – the Energy Academy close to the picturesque
harbor village and tourist magnet Ballen. Samsø has amassed a great deal of
concrete experiences with the implementation of a broad variety of local
renewable energy project, from wind turbines to CO2 neutral district heating
plants, rapeseed oil tractors and solar energy panels.
This experience can be drawn upon through the Academy and research workers
and scientists from at home and abroad spend time at the Academy doing
research based on the easy access to all these different energy systems, where
windmills, straw-based districting heating and thermal solar panels systems and
the people who initiated them are close at hand.
The Academy also functions as a conference center where companies, scientists
and politicians can discuss renewable energy, energy savings and new
technologies.
Samsø Energy and Environment Office, Samsø Energy Agency and the Samsø
branch office of the Danish Energy Service reside in the Energy Academy.
Samsø

34. CONCLUSION

35. Four typical type of illusion and “vanity”
• Just wait the end of the cycle: fatalism
• Return to old traditional solution: fundamentalism
• Hope that science will solve problems: scientism
• Prepare our self and our community to a chaotic transition: a pragmatic
solution but not really efficient because of the hysteresis of our global
planetary ecological sociological and economic system.

36. Why we need a global vision?
• “Business as usual” bring us in “hell”
• Our actual action will have an effect on the long term that future
generation would not be able to reverse even if they wish to do so
• Transitional adaptation will not be sufficient and effective in front of
a disruption of high amplitude which may even challenge survival
probability of most of the mammals over the size of mouse!

37. How we can develop a new vision
• Enhance the democratic process
• Develop integral education
• Spread integral open innovation ecosystem of research and actions
• Multiply opportunity of dialogue between cultures and disciplines
• Develop understanding of the past and a will to imagine new futures

38. Methods
• We are bringing together diverse institutions that have a range of
existing, relevant skills and proven methodologies for performing
analyses of alternative futures and studying their implications.
• Our methods include:
1. Cultivating Diversity and Otherness
2. Modelling Alternative Future Scenarios
3. Mixing High Tech and High Touch
4. Managing the Process Holistically
5. Using Trends and Dimensions
6. Establishing a Creative Process Supplying Specific and Short Term Outputs
for Decision Making

39. 1. Cultivating Diversity and Difference
• Understand that a complex world needs diversity in ways of
thinking.
• The future will emerge from the complexity of our diversity. We
cannot think of the future outside of this diversity. This is why we
need to cultivate diversity, diversity of specialties, cultures,
organisations.
• Our research team is an answer to the need of diversity. We are
coming from various different countries, fields of expertise and
organisations.

40. 2. Modelling Alternative Future Scenarios
• It is possible today to model thousands of different futures, based on
variations in a set of assumptions. Using existing “exploratory
modelling” tools, we can provide instant visualisation of the
different possibilities in a rich, multidimensional space.
• Such visualisation is extraordinary helpful in becoming aware of
critical factors affecting those futures.

41. 3. Mixing High Tech and High Touch
• We use the Internet and other new technologies to communicate
efficiently and independently of space and time
• We have regular meetings in person, with experimental workshops
and innovatively designed processes.

42. 4. Managing the Process Holistically
• The rational approach must be supported by a concern for the
affective process. A place must be left open for spiritual intuition
and creative imagination.
• We support the fact that science, art and spirituality can bring in
their different domains very important insights for understanding
the future. But it is also a way of life, a way to be open to the instant
presence.
• There is time and place in our work for moments of rationality,
emotional expression and inquiry about meaning.

43. 5. Using Trends and Dimensions
• Particular attention will be given to existing qualitative trends and
their re-evaluation during the course of our research.
• Various polarities identified in our previous work – to be re-
examined and explored further – are: transparency vs. privacy,
abundance vs. scarcity, diversity vs. homogeneity, etc.

44. Short Term
Outputs for
Decision
Making
Cultivating
Diversity and
Otherness
Modelling
Alternative
Future Scenarios
Mixing High
Tech and
High Touch
Managing the
Process
Holistically
Using Trends
and
Dimensions

45. Planning

46. Date 1
Date 2
Date 3
Date 4
Planning

47. Thank you!

48. ANNEXES
1. IDEES Fondation Tuck IFP
Documentation
2. Spiral Dynamics &
The Practice of Policy Governance
3. Design me a planet
Ten macro scenarios for a little star dust
4. What strategies of the future and
organizational transformation ?

49. Annexe 1
IDEES Fondation Tuck IFP
Documentation

50. I have work for 3 years for IDEES
Fondation Tuck IFP the preeminent
research center on Energy in France .
All the documentation can be see here
below and can be reach with link
http://michelsaloffcoste.blogspot.fr/p/l
e-groupe-de-reflexion-idees-
lenergie.html
My global conclusion can be fine
here, “Quelle énergie à long terme
pour le futur de la planète Terre ?”

51. Le Groupe prospective - Transition Energie et Société
Animateur : Michel SALOFF-COSTE (biographie)
Réunion au Château de Vert-Mont (plan d'accès)
• 10 juin 2013 : Séminaire "Prospective et énergie - Conclusion du cycle de réunions" >> Ordre du jour
Présentations de Philippe DURANCE"Le rôle de la prospective dans le domaine de l’énergie", Alexandre ROJEY : "Énergie 2050 scénarios et perspectives" et Michel
SALOFF-COSTE : "Quelle énergie à long terme pour le futur de la planète Terre ?" • 04 mars 2013 : Séminaire 12 "Nanotechnologies et énergie" >> Ordre du
jour -
Introduction Présentations de Alexandre ROJEY : "Les nanotechnologies et l'avenir de l'énergie" et Bernadette BENSAUDE VINCENT :
"Nanotechnologies et innovation responsable" - Compte-rendu
• 03 décembre 2012 : Séminaire 11 "Ruptures scientifiques et techniques" Ordre du jour - Introduction
Présentations de Pierre PAPON : "Des ruptures scientifiques pourraient-elles changer la donne énergétique?",
et Christian NGO : "L'avenir énergétique est-il écrit ?" - Compte-rendu
• 18 octobre 2012 : Séminaire 10 "Prospective et scénarios énergétiques" >> Ordre du jour - Introduction
Présentations de Jean-Eudes MONCOMBLE : "Les scénarios énergétiques à l'horizon 2050 : le point de vue du CME",
Nadia MAÏZI : "L'exercice prospectif et la fabrique de scénarios énergétiques : réflexion sur les approches 2050 pour la France",
Jean-Charles HOURCADE : " Politiques énergétiques, économiques et sociales ; autour de trois exemples de non prospective", Compte-rendu
• 14 mai 2012 : Séminaire 9 "Feuilles de route Energie à l'horizon 2050" >> Ordre du jour Présentations de Jacques PERCEBOIS et Claude MANDIL : "Rapport
Energies 2050", Christian KIRCHSTEIGER : "EU Energy Roadmap 2050" et "Views on Reactor Safety Post-Fukushima" - Compte-rendu
• 09 février 2012 : Séminaire 8 "Scénarios énergétiques et changement climatique" >> Ordre du jour Présentations de Trevor MORGAN : "Les perspectives
énergétiques de l'AIE à l'horizon 2035, conséquences sur le Changement Climatique", de Christian de PERTHUIS : "Trajectoires 2020-2050 vers une économie
sobre en carbone : le cas français" et de Thierry SALOMON : "Le Scénario négaWatt 2011-2050 " - Compte rendu
• 21 novembre 2011 : Séminaire 7 "Les scénarios énergétiques" >> Ordre du jour Présentations de Nadine BRET-ROUZAUT "Scénarios énergétiques -
Prévisions ou prospective" et de Patrick CRIQUI "Vers des sociétés sobres en carbone" - Compte rendu
• 26 septembre 2011 : Séminaire 6 "Maîtrise des risques et scénarios de prospective" Ordre du jour
Présentation de Jean-Paul LANGLOIS "La maîtrise des risques dans le domaine de l'énergie" - Compte rendu
• 23 juin 2011 : Séminaire 5 "Géopolitique de l'énergie" Ordre du jour Présentations de Alexandre ROJEY "Rappel du fonctionnement du Think tank IDées" et
de Jean-Pierre FAVENNEC : "Géopolitique de l'Energie" - Compte rendu
• 05 avril 2011 : Séminaire 4 "Aspirations et modes de vie : besoins en énergie" Ordre du jour
Compte rendu
• 08 février 2011 : Séminaire 3 "Les ruptures technologiques" Ordre du jour Présentations de Jean-Paul LANGLOIS : "Ruptures technologiques : le rôle du
nucléaire" et d'Alexandre ROJEY : "Transition fossiles => renouvelables - Les ruptures possibles" - Compte rendu
• 04 novembre 2010 : Séminaire 2 "L'énergie à l'horizon 2030 et au-delà" Ordre du jour
Présentation de Bruno WEYMULLER : "Vision Long Terme de l'Avenir énergétique" - Compte rendu
• 02 septembre 2010 : Séminaire 1 "Anthropologie, énergie et société" Ordre du jour Présentation IDées - Présentations du Dr Fabienne GOUX-BAUDIMENT
: "Repenser l'énergie : une approche macrohistorique" et "De l'impératif d'une prospective évolutionniste" - Compte rendu

52. Annexe 2
Spiral Dynamics &
The Practice of Policy Governance

53. 53
Spiral Dynamics &
The Practice of Policy Governance
Presented by
Susan S. Stratton, CAE
Partners in Policy Governance®

54. 54
What is Spiral Dynamics?
• Spiral Dynamics is a powerful model and predictive theory of human
development and cultural evolution
• Developed by Clare Graves and further developed by Don Beck and
Christopher Cowan
• By exploring and describing the core intelligences and deep values that
flow beneath what we believe and do, the model offers a profoundly
incisive, dynamic perspective on complex matters such as:
 HOW people think about things (as opposed to “what” they think)
 WHY people make decisions in different ways
 WHY people respond to different motivators
 WHY and HOW values arise and spread
 The nature of CHANGE

55. 55
From Clare W. Graves…
• “Briefly, what I am proposing is that the
psychology of the mature human being is an
unfolding, emergent, oscillating, spiraling
process marked by progressive
subordination of older, lower-behavior
systems to newer, higher-order systems as
man’s existential problems change.”

56. 56
What is an integral theory?
• To integrate
• To bring together
• To join, to link, to embrace.
• In the sense of unity-in-diversity
• Shared commonalities along with our wonderful differences.
• The integration, alignment and synergy of multiple
elements, entities, interests and motives, weaving them
together to create healthy, dynamic, and comprehensive
solutions to complex problems within rapidly changing,
complex environments.
• Keeping the whole spiral healthy, not diminishing any
level.

57. 57
What is a MEME?
• A MEME reflects:
• A world view
• A valuing system
• A level of psychological existence
• A belief structure
• An organizing principle
• A way of thinking or a mode of adjustment
• A core intelligence that forms systems and directs
human behavior

58. 58
What is a MEME?
A discrete structure for thinking, not
just a set of ideas, values or a cause.
• Represents a core intelligence that
forms systems and directs human
behavior.
• Impacts upon all life choices as a
decision-making framework.
• Manifests itself in both healthy and
unhealthy forms.
• Brightens and dims as Life
Conditions change.
Not rigid levels, but flowing waves
with much overlap and interweaving,
resulting in a meshwork or dynamic
spiral of consciousness unfolding.
Each MEME wave
includes arrested, closed
and open states.
• Arrested = Movement to
new MEME is blocked; old
MEMES are available.
• Closed = Psychological
blindness keeps the person
from seeing alternatives
• Open = Centralized in a
MEME system, but can
move freely in any direction
as shifting Life Conditions
may require.

59. 59
Basic Infrastructures Exist in Each MEME
• Economic policy
• Educational policy
• Health care policy
• Environmental policy
• Law enforcement action
• Political gamesmanship
• Military
• Churches and religion
• Governance

60. 60
QUICK SUMMARY OF
VALUE SYSTEMS CODES
v
MEMES COLOR THEME FOCUS THINKING VALUE SYSTEMS--BOTTOM
LINES
LIFESTYLE
Level 8 Turquoise WholeView We Holistic Harmony and Holism Lives for
Wisdom
Level 7 Yellow FlexFlow Me Systemic Natural Processes of Order &
Change
Lives for
Mutuality
Level 6 Green HumanBond We Humanistic Equality and Human Social Bond Lives for
Harmony
Level 5 Orange StriveDrive Me Materialistic Success and Material Gain Lives for
Gain
Level 4 Blue TruthForce We Absolutistic Authority, Stability, "One-Right-
Way"
Lives for
Later
Level 3 Red PowerGods Me Egocentric Power, Glory, Exploitation, No
Boundaries
Lives for
Now
Level 2 Purple Kin Spirits We Animistic Myths, Ancestors, Traditions,
Our People
Lives for
Group
Level 1 Beige SurvivalSense Me Automatic Staying Alive, Reactive, Basic
Survival
Lives for
Survival

61. 61
BEIGE Instinctive/Survivalistic
MEME - starting 100,000 years ago
• Basic theme: Do what you
must just to stay alive
• 1st Tier-Subsistence
• Express-self
• Uses instincts and habits
just to survive
• Distinct self is barely
awakened or sustained
• Food, water, warmth, sex,
and safety have priority
• Forms into survival bands
to perpetuate life
• Lives "off the land" much
as other animals

62. 62
PURPLE Magical/Animistic
MEME - starting 50,000 years ago
• Obeys the desires of the spirit
being and mystical signs
• Shows allegiance to chief,
elders, ancestors, and the clan
• Individual subsumed in group
• Preserves sacred objects,
places, events, and memories
• Observes rites of passage,
seasonal cycles, and tribal
customs
• Basic theme: Keep the
spirits happy and the
tribe's nest warm and safe
• 1st Tier-Subsistence
• Sacrifice self

63. 63
RED Impulsive/Egocentric
MEME - starting 10,000 years ago
• The world is a jungle full of threats
and predators
• Breaks free from any domination or
constraint to please self as self
desires
• Stands tall, expects attention,
demands respect, and calls the shots
• Enjoys self to the fullest right now
without guilt or remorse
• Conquers, out-foxes, and dominates
other aggressive characters
Basic theme: Be what you
are and do what you want,
regardless
• 1st Tier-Subsistence
• Express-self

64. 64
BLUE Purposeful/Authoritarian
MEME - starting 5,000 years ago
• One sacrifices self to the
transcendent Cause, Truth, or
righteous Pathway
• The Order enforces a code of
conduct based on eternal, absolute
principles
• Righteous living produces stability
now and guarantees future reward
• Impulsivity is controlled through
guilt; everybody has their proper
place
• Laws, regulations, and discipline
build character and moral fiber
• Basic theme: Life has
meaning, direction, and
purpose with
predetermined outcomes
• 1st Tier-Subsistence
• Sacrifice self

65. 65
ORANGE Achievist/Strategic
MEME - starting 300 years ago
• Change and advancement are
inherent within the scheme of things
• Progresses by learning nature's
secrets and seeking out best solutions
• Manipulates Earth's resources to
create and spread the abundant good
life
• Optimistic, risk-taking, and self-
reliant people deserve success
• Societies prosper through strategy,
technology, and competitiveness
• Basic theme: Act in your
own self-interest by
playing the game to win
• 1st Tier-Subsistence
• Express-self

66. 66
GREEN Communitarian/Egalitarian
MEME - starting 150 years ago
• The human spirit must be freed from
greed, dogma, and divisiveness
• Feelings, sensitivity, and caring
supersede cold rationality
• Spreads the Earth's resources and
opportunities equally among all
• Reaches decisions through
reconciliation and consensus processes
• Refreshes spirituality, brings harmony,
and enriches human development
• Basic theme: Seek peace
within the inner self and
explore, with others, the
caring dimensions of
community
• 1st Tier-Subsistence
• Sacrifice self

67. 67
YELLOW Integrative
MEME—starting 50 years ago
• Life is a kaleidoscope of natural
hierarchies, systems, and forms
• The magnificence of existence is
valued over material possessions
• Flexibility, spontaneity, and
functionality have the highest
priority
• Differences can be integrated into
interdependent, natural flows
• Understands that chaos and
change are natural
• Basic theme: Live fully
and responsibly as what
you are and learn to
become
• 2nd tier - “Being”
• Express-self

68. 68
TURQUOISE Holistic
MEME—starting 30 years ago
• The world is a single, dynamic
organism with its own collective mind
• Self is both distinct and a blended part
of a larger, compassionate whole
• Everything connects to everything
else in ecological alignments
• Energy and information permeate the
Earth's total environment
• Holistic, intuitive thinking and
cooperative actions are to be expected
• Basic theme:
Experience the
wholeness of existence
through mind and spirit
• 2nd tier - “Being”
• Sacrifice self

69. 69
Implications for Pol Gov Practice?
2
3
4
5
8
6
7

70. 70
Implications for Pol Gov
Practice
Sacrifice self
Structure for
Living
End Impact -
Owner/Customer
Cultivate Group
Responsibility/
Embrace Diversity
Board as
Learning
Community
Board as
Collective Voice
Dysfunction to
be resolved by
PG
4
8
7
6
5
3
2

71. 71
Stages of Change
Something’s
Wrong
Break Out
Trapped
Evolutionary
Option
Revolutionary
Option
Alpha Stage New Alpha
Delta
Surge
Beta Stage
Gamma
Stage
Barrier

72. 72
Stages of Change
• Alpha - No worries; illusion of stability
• Beta - Doubts arise; the boat is rocking
• We try more of the same because nothing is wrong with the “system”—
only its implementation or enforcement.
• Gamma - Growing frustration; feeling trapped; acting out behaviors; self-
destructive.
• The Revolutionary Option against the status quo.
• Demands fundamental change in structures/systems
• Unrelenting “all or nothing” assault on barriers and obstacles
• Defends actions by finding noble purpose in “the Cause”
• Delta - Excitement and rapid change where barriers are overcome and
previous restraints drop away. People take charge of their own destinies.
• New Alpha - The consolidation of the ideas and coping systems that emerged
during the Delta state into new systems, paradigms, and arrangements.

73. 73
First and Second Order of Change
First order change
• Change occurs within
a system which, itself
remains unchanged.
• Horizontal change
• More of the same.
Second order change
• Mega-system shift to
new paradigms, new
assumptions, and new
structures.
• Vertical change
• Reframing

74. 74
Assess the Organization
for a MEME change
• Six conditions have to be met IF an
individual or organization is to experience
lasting change.

75. 75
Required Conditions for
Lasting Change
1. Potential for change must be
present
2. Unresolved problems from a
lower order must be addressed
3. Dissonance with the current
MEME must be felt
4. Sufficient insight into the
causes of the dissonance and
awareness of alternative
approaches to their resolution.
5. Specific barriers to change need
to be identified and eliminated,
bypassed, neutralized or
reframed into something else.
6. If there is no culture of
nurturing support during
transformation, new MEMEs
cannot bloom.
• When significant change occurs,
expect confusion, false starts,
long learning curves and
awkward assimilation while
consolidation of new thinking.

76. 76
Systemic Change Requires…
• All infrastructures
integrated, aligned and
synergized; creating critical
mass, including:
• Economic policy
• Educational policy
• NGO activities
• Environmental rules
• Law enforcement action
• Political gamesmanship
• Community development
• Churches and religion
• Connecting
everything to
everything else!

77. 77
PURPLE Magical/Animistic
Appropriate source
• Caring chieftain
• Elders
• From within tribe/clan
• From spirit realm
• From word of ancestors
• Traditional ways
Message
• Traditional rites, rituals
• Includes mystical elements and
superstitions
• Appeals to extended family,
harmony, and safety
• Recognizes blood-bonds, the
folk, group
• Familiar metaphors, drawings
• Minimal reliance on written
language.

78. 78
RED Impulsive/Egocentric
Appropriate source
• Person with the
recognized power
• Straight-talking boss
• One with something to
offer
• Respected (feared)
other
• Proven tough entity
Message
• Demonstrate “What’s in it for me
now?”
• Offer “Immediate gratification if…”
• Challenges and appeals to
machismo/strength
• Heroic status and legendary potential
• Flashy, to the point, unambiguous,
strong
• Simple language and fiery
images/graphics.

79. 79
BLUE Purposeful/
Authoritarian
Appropriate source
• Rightful, proper authority
• Higher authority in the
Way
• Down the chain-of-
command
• According to the book’s
rules
• Person with position
power
• Revered Truth Keepers
Message
• Duty, honor, country images of discipline
• Self-sacrifice for higher causes
• Appeal to traditions and established
norms
• Use class-consciousness and knowing
one’s place
• Propriety, righteousness and
responsibilities
• Insure future rewards and delayed
gratification
• Assuage guilt with correct consequences.

80. 80
ORANGE Achievist/
Strategic
Appropriate source
• One’s own right-thinking
mind
• Successful mentors and
models
• Credible professionals
• Prosperous elite contacts
• Advantageous to the self
• Based in proven experience
Message
• Appeal to competitive
advantage and leverage
• Success motivations and
achieving abundance
• Bigger, better, newer, faster,
more popular
• Citations of experts and
selected authorities
• Profit, productivity, quality,
results, win
• “Best of several options.”

81. 81
GREEN Communitarian/
Egalitarian
Appropriate source
• Consensual community
norms
• Enlightened friend/colleague
• Outcome of participation
• Resultant of enlightenment
• Observation of events
• Participative decision
• Team’s collective findings
Message
• Enhance belonging, sharing,
harmony of groups
• Sensitive to human issues and
care for others
• Expand awareness and
understanding of inner self
• Symbols of equity, humanity
and bonding
• Build trust, openness,
exploration, passages
• Real people with authentic
emotional displays.

82. 82
YELLOW Integrative
Appropriate source
• Any information source
• May adopt Beige through
Green
• Relevant, more useful data
• Merge hard sources and
hunches
• Conscious and unconscious
mind
• Disregards status or prestige
Message
• Interactive, relevant media, self-
accessible
• Functional ‘lean’ information
without fluff
• The facts, the feelings and the
instincts
• Big picture, total systems,
integrations
• Connect data across fields for
holistic view
• Adapt, mesh, blend, access, sense,
gather
• Self-connecting to systems and
others usefully

83. 83
TURQUOISE - Holistic
Appropriate source
• Experience of discovery
• Learning in communal
network
• Holistic conception of reality
• Any being in Turquoise
• Systems across the planet
• Resonance with First Tier
Message
• Multi-dimensional chunks of
insight
• Renewed spirituality and
sacrifice to whole
• Ecological interdependency
and interconnections
• Macro solutions to macro
problems
• Community beyond
nationalities
• High-tech, high-touch for
experiential knowing.

84. Annexe 3
DESIGN ME A PLANET
TEN MACRO SCENARIOS FOR A LITTLE
STAR DUST

85. TEN MACRO SCENARIOS FOR A LITTLE STAR DUST

86. SPEAKING WITH DIFFERENTS GROUPS
I DISCOVER AFTER UNDREDS OF INTERVIEWS
THAT ………..

87. HOW PEOPLE IMAGINE THE FUTURE
WHITE
TURQUOI
SE
YELLOW
GREEN
ORANGE
BLUE
RED
PURPLE
BEIGE
BLACK

88. DEPENDING OF THEIR BELIEVE SYSTEM AND VALUES

90. DEPENDING OF THEIR BELIEVE SYSTEM AND VALUES

91. THEN WE FIND TEN MAINS FAMILY OF
SCENARIOS FOR THE LONG TERM FUTURE OF
THE PLANET

92. BLACK
End of mankind.
End of sun ( very long term but certain ).
Meteorite (any time but little probability on short term ).
Evolution trap ( high probability on the short term as we will see).
A scenario usual evocate by researcher and scientist.
This scenario is already happening for the more poor
Environ 200 millions

93. BEIGE
Brake of the civilization and return to survival.
A scenario witch is already happening for the poorest in the suburb of
big cities for environ 500 millions of person
A scenario witch could append for 2/3 of mankind in the context of
climate change
A desperate planet who will be the first to move in the black scenario in
case of famine
poor ≠ miser

94. PURPLE
Tribes of hunter gatherer, indigenous people with precious, sophisticate and
very ancient culture environ 20 millions witch are in danger of destruction.
How to conserve their precious insights and knowledge and their way of life
But also kind of néo tribs organize in mafia way of life in the suburb of big cities.
Purple future is difficult either they are assimilate by red and blue either they are
push in beige and black suicide
They tempt to preserve them self and their myths and ancient believe system.
The purple planet is mainly in Africa, south america and oceania.

95. RED
The empire battle for territory and resources.
The red planet is the most crowded with the blue one. They are connected
because the red planet is use by the blue planet as warriors.
The vision of the reds is a clash of civilization and a total war for access to
resources and domination.
Ecological and sociological issues are for dreamers
Around 2-3 billions of people are in this way of acting and thinking “real politics”

96. BLUE
The battle for religion and legacy.
The blue planet is the most crowded with the red one. They are connected
because the red planet use blue planet as legitimization .
The vision of the blue planet is a battle for religion and cultural dominants
Around 2-3 billions of people are living and thinking this way.
They see the future as the domination of their religion over the planet .
They find their meaning and purpose trough the practice of their cultural
tradition, they are family oriented, respect the law and they participate to debate
and democracy process but only in the narrow context of their own specific
culture.
All others cultures appear enemies and devils.
The globalization witch seems first for them a way to develop their cultural
dominants is now a treats because of the obligation to accept the relativity of
each cultures in public international affairs. They tempt to return to their
traditional territory
and preserve their culture in any form of fundamentalism

97. ORANGE
Money and technology can solve any problem !
Let’s make money with green development…….
Orange behaviors rules the word because the extraordinary grow of economy
through credit, energy, technology and population have make them the most rich
and powerful group, even if they are only environ one billions.
They are more cynics than any other previous sub-group and manipulate the others
in the context of their money games and monopolization of the planetary resources.
The actual problem it is that their power came from the fact they owns the credit
facility and they need grows of the economy to caution credit.
They have been for years the solution they are now the problem because material
grow is limited in a finish planet.
They see future continuing business as usual with more or less pink and green to
have fun !
They confront mankind with a veritable evolution trap because their vision is not
scientifically valid, effect of pollution are deleted enough to be ignored on a short
base may be fatal for mankind to terms.

98. GREEN
Welcome in Bobo Land an the amazing beginning of the cultural creatives landscape
!
Green is a nice planet ! So nice indeed !
Green people are usually more educated young and rich than the average
population.
They love exchange together thoughts and are open to any ideas, cultures,
civilization who seem to them a interesting point of view.
Equality and participation of every body in the decision process are very important
for them.
They are human developer's psychologist, coach and work hard to their own
transformation and development.
They see the future as a nice dialogue between cultures on a base of equality and
awareness of the relativity of each point view !
They have difficulty to take decision and make real action and get organized.
They care for the planet but after their personal development !

99. YELLOW
The yellow people are process oriented and systemic thinkers.
They see the planet as a global system in evolution where each level of organization
and way of thinking have his own place depending of the context.
The big gap with previous way of thinking is the positioning of economy as a
subsystem of sociology and ecology and a formal critics of any form of reductionism.
The problem of Yellow is that they are very few and they are oblige to live in orange
society base on reductionism and money leverage
Yellow people and turquoise people are the solution to the actual problem of the
planet but they need to connect, get organize, propose politics and build together a
new way to make society !

100. TURQUOISE
Turquoise open the systemic vision to a integral and holistic point of view.
The turquoise vision of the future is a integration and valorization of each cultures
in a meta system of cultural global governance !

101. Time and space are illusion
We are the one , only “one” is .

102. STRATIFIED DEMOCRACY

103. Annexe 3
What strategies of the future and
organizational transformation ?

104. © Michel Saloff-Coste
How to manage the evolution from the diagnosis to the action plan
Michel Saloff-Coste
What strategies of the future and
organizational transformation ?

105. © Michel Saloff-Coste
THE FOUR WAVES OF
THE CIVILIZATION
Hunting Gathering 3 000 000 years
Agriculture Breeding 30 000 years
Industry Commerce 300 years
Creation Communication ?

106. © Michel Saloff-Coste
Activity Tools Power Organization
Hunting
Gathering
Agriculture
Breeding
Industry
Commerce
Creation
Communication
Nails
Teeth
Arms
Legs
Senses
Organs
Brain
Nerves
Osmosis with
the nature
Territory
possession
Capital
availability
Information
innovation
Myths
Tribe
Monarchy
Kingdom
Democracy
State
Feelings
Networks
THE EVOLUTION GRID

107. © Michel Saloff-Coste
THE EVOLUTION GRID
Activity Exchange Mentality Communication
Hunting
Gathering
Agriculture
Breeding
Industry
Commerce
Creation
Communication
Barter
Coin
Money
Paper
Money
Information
Swap
Animist
instinctive
Monotheist
analogical
Scientific
reductionist
Systemic
complex
Oral
Personal
Written
Manuscript
Audio-visual
Mass-media
Interactive
Computers

108. © Michel Saloff-Coste
APPLICATION A
THE ORGANIZATIONS
EVOLUTION
Through the four vectors of change :
Culture
Management
Structure
Process

109. © Michel Saloff-Coste
Hunting
Gathering
Agriculture
Breeding
Industry
Commerce
Creation
Communication
Fusion
instinctive
Caste
analogical
Equality
logic
Complexity
creative
ORGANISATIONS EVOLUTION
Culture Management
To weld together
To fascinate
To build a hierarchy
To impose
To adapt
To negotiate
To generate
To inspire

110. © Michel Saloff-Coste
Hunting
Gathering
Agriculture
Breeding
Industry
Commerce
Creation
Communication
Informal
Band
Classic
pyramid
Inversed
pyramid
Interactive
cells
ORGANISATIONS EVOLUTION
Structure Process
Recursive
closed
Formal
Mechanistic
Deductive
Reactive
Inspired
Proactive

111. © Michel Saloff-Coste
Hunting
Gathering
Agriculture
Breeding
Industry
Commerce
Creation
Communication
Client is an
"objet"
Client is a
"user"
Client is a
«king»
Client is a
"partner"
EXAMPLES
The "CLIENT" The HR ’s mission
Create an elite
Manage the promotion
The right man at
the right place
Everyone has his
own project

112. © Michel Saloff-Coste
Hunting
Gathering
Agriculture
Breeding
Industry
Commerce
Creation
Communication
Fascination
Cooption
Selection
Symbiosis
Recruitment Evaluation
Osmosis
Fitting the norm
Professional skills
Personal growth
HUMAN RESSOURCES SYSTEMS

113. © Michel Saloff-Coste
HUMAN RESSOURCES SYSTEMS
Education Career Remuneration
Hunting
Gathering
Agriculture
Breeding
Industry
Commerce
Creation
Communication
Apprenticeship
Fellowship
Specialization
Personalization
Devotion
Working
the way up
Value
Potential
Adhesion
Caste
Professionalism
Uniqueness

114. © Michel Saloff-Coste
TWO QUESTIONS
TO ANSWER
How to position your organization on the
path to Creation-Communication ?
How to take your organization
to Creation-Communication ?

115. © Michel Saloff-Coste
LEARNING THE TOOLS
OF CHANGE

116. © Michel Saloff-Coste
The transition to the Creation-
Communication age implies
the transformation :
 of the organization
 of the individuals

117. © Michel Saloff-Coste
FAMILIARIZATION :
The stages of learning
INITIATION :
DEVELOPMENT :
The basic concepts
The methodological tools
The potential of
the individuals
The potential of
the organization

118. © Michel Saloff-Coste
INDIVIDUALS POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT
 Teaching
Help in mastering the methodology
of change in the professional activity
 Coaching
Analysis of the progress and help
in using the tools over one year period

119. © Michel Saloff-Coste
ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT
Diagnosis
Weakness and strength
evaluation of your organization
in Creation-Communication era

120. © Michel Saloff-Coste
DIRECTED ACTION
Advise the decision maker during
the transformation process
Emphasize strong points and
soften weak points
of your organization
STRATEGIC CELL

121. © Michel Saloff-Coste
ORGANIZATION
TRANSFORMATION
 Change plan design
 Key actors familiarization
with IPD principles
 Management culture evolution
 Structures and process transformation

122. © Michel Saloff-Coste
REFERENCES
AFPA, APPLE, DGA, EDF
MERLIN GERIN,
L'OREAL, FRANCE TELECOM,
REEBOK, SONACOTRA,
BEL, PEUGEOT, SNECMA…

123. © Michel Saloff-Coste