1. BUSINESS DECISION MAKING ADMN2167 Professor: Bob Carpenter

3. Exercise #1 p40

4. Young’s textiles cost of goods

5. Young’s textiles income

6. Paul Webster exercise #1

8. Retained Earnings

9. Balance Sheet Bargain stores

13. Meet your Group – Section 1 Wednesday – Section 2 Friday

15. Survival – Results for Scoring 1. not available until after discussion

20. THINKING PROCESS

23. CASE METHODOLOGY Revisited

34. Forecasting I see that you will get an A this semester.

36. Uses of Forecasts New products and services Product/service design Schedules, MRP, workloads Operations IT/IS systems, services MIS Pricing, promotion, strategy Marketing Hiring/recruiting/training Human Resources Cash flow and funding Finance Cost/profit estimates Accounting

38. Elements of a Good Forecast Timely Accurate Reliable Meaningful Written Easy to use

42. Forecast Variations Trend Irregular variation Cycles Seasonal variations 90 89 88

46. Simple Moving Average MA n = n A i i = 1  n Actual MA3 MA5

49. Example of Exponential Smoothing

50. Picking a Smoothing Constant  .1  .4 Actual

52. Pro-forma financial statements are only forecasts :