12. 3 INSIGHTS
1 cities don’t innovate as much as they should and when
they do, they don’t share
2 we can seamlessly build effective glocal (global + local)
teams and share knowledge across space and time
3 we can now rapidly prototype physical, digital and mobile
designs that address urban scale problems
13. a) the places that need 5 DESIGNED CITY
the help the most at
this time – and b) that
LEVERAGES NEW IDEAS
have a local team that TO REBRAND ITSELF AS 6 OTHER CITIES ADOPT
we can work with A CITY THAT IS SOME OF THESE NEW
LEAPFROGGING INTO EXPERIMENTS
1 IDENTIFY THE CITY and the THE FUTURE
URBAN-SCALE DESIGN
CHALLENGE
law of
unintended
consequences
research, crowdsource ideas
research, from local 4 BROADCAST EXPERIMENTS
research constitutents TO THE WEB WHERE
INVESTORS CAN HELP SCALE
2 BUILD A GLOCAL DESIGN TEAM 1-2 months THEIR FAVORITE EXPERIMENTS
IDENTIFY and REFINE THE BEST
IDEAS that can be RAPIDLY prototypes,
PROTOTYPED including design
files all open-
refine ideas sourced and
with the help freely available
of global to any city
experts
2-3 weeks
3 RAPID PROTOTYPE IN THE CITY
some members of global
team to assist in the local partners to own
rapid deployment of and document the
new ideas experiment’s progress
15. South and Southeast Asia
private Motorization in
excluding Singapore
THEOR Y OF CHANGE
requires well-organized, capable
resourced gov’t which usually
doesn’t happen till later in
development stages
how this private motorization wave might be avoided how to support and scale this
A B C D experimentation
[Google CiO
douglas merrill]
regulate regulate make GOD e.g. 3 types of innovation
cars land use alternatives natural
(ownership and (do not build much more disasters, incremental
use) more roads) appealing apocalyps with
incremental transformative
e unintended
C1 C2 consequences
A1 A2 build enhance
limit disincenti more existing
vize capacity capacity
done only new INFORMATION
when
congestio INFRASTRUCTURE retrofits
n is
really sidewalks, on-
bad eg bicycle demand
beijing, paths, para-
jakarta transit,
brts,
or with metro
real-
time bus
localization scalable
unpreced stations and rail
ented info INFORMATION
control retrofits
/
foresigh bicycle transport mobile-driven
t eg
Singapor
and car user problem + information
e
sharing
in a specific that can help
context solve
mobiles can be
a spark!
entrepreneur
B C2
experiment rickshaw and
spread by road made mobiles on
service rickshaws
courts and car-free ideas
media
redesigned make them new 1
2 incentives
C2 C2
3 technical &
C3 implementation
support
make C4
alternative
make
purchases
appealing a
more
lifestyle
appealing
without
cars
16. South and Southeast
Developing Asia =
Asia excluding Singapore
Demand-Side [1]
2 AGGREGATE DEMAND FOR TRAVEL
Can owning a Mobile phone reduce the desire to (USE) attributes of
use and need an automobile? [user demand] mobility mode
upfront cost
policy measures
ongoing cost
travel time
perception
(fuel taxes, parking
reliability
fees)
wait time
comfort
1 AGGREGATE DEMAND FOR TRAVEL
payment
effort
safety
(PURCHASE) driving
directions
policy Demand for Auto vehicle
increased car- measures use Congestion tracking
communications sharing (car quotas, car-sharing
[mokhtarian, [shaheen] import taxes)
saloon] more roads
HIGHEST
MEDIUM
0 MIN
BEST
unavailable unless
situation is
extremely dire e.g.
jakarta, beijing
Demand for Auto Demand for
AIR POLLUTION
ownership motorcycle use
DANGEROUS
GREAT IF NO
FASTEST
GREAT
Demand for travel
0 MIN
GOOD
Jakarta (9 MM for
9.6 MM people)
OVERCROWDED
WALKING STILL
Demand for
motorcycle Demand for Bus
REQUIRED
15-60 MIN
SLOWEST
ownership use BRT with dedicated
lanes
substitution effect
Bus is an inferior
good bus arrival
times
POTENTIAL FOR
Demand for
SCAMMING
15-60 MIN
paratransit on-demand
MEDIUM
taxis,
use rickshaws
Congestion / air pollution /
WEATHER DEPENDENT
co2 emissions
HEALTH BENEFITS
LOTS OF EFFORT +
DANGEROUS WITH
POTENTIALLY THE
bicycle-
BECOMES MORE
sharing
Demand for
MORE CARS
Walking / cycling
HIGHEST
Demand for use more roads
0 MIN
bicycle
substitution effect
ownership
Social equity bicycle-
walking / cycling sharing
is an inferior
good
17. South and Southeast
Developing Asia =
Asia excluding Singapore
Demand-Side [2]
taxes on cars,
petrol, parking
fees, subsidies
Can owning a Mobile phone reduce the desire to for transit
use and need an automobile? [user demand]
dedicated
bus lanes
2 USER-CENTRIC TRAVEL DECISIONS Methods of changing
This is our brain (decision- motorization behavior
making apparatus)
A REGULATE B INCENTIVIZE C APPEAL TO
car quotas X
-
reason is often HUMAN EMOTION
subconscious
weak, our
conscious
sentiments are Difficult to do in Aspiration,
Money and Time
thought
strong, and our developing contexts due to
thought
lack of enforcement Love,
sentiments are mechanisms As incomes increase, sharing,
trustworthy financial incentives
become less effective surprise,
[brooks in the also may impinge on
freedoms, one of the core as transport share wonder,
social animal] of income declines perception
benefits of economic sacrifice,
development [Sen]
delight
which destination?
It’s about the complete
Especially as
congestion makes user experience how long will it take?
pushes the limits of
will I get to my destination in time?
commuting time, Time before transit
becomes a potentially
powerful lever but
am I comfortable?
one that may be
difficult to push do I feel safe?
during transit does something smell?
Killer marketing campaigns for
walking, biking and transit
Managing space-Time wedding Grammy
cool walking paths
day award
trip to
activity / event based travel
nepal Ted Talk after transit
search
Schooling
X Retirement multi-modal, real-time
8 am 0 100 Time-Based
transport planner
Parenthood
found a dollar destinations
on the ground
transport is not about connecting connected to
Work people to places as fast as possible but transit
to the right places at the right time for destinations are not just fixed like
the right amount of time home and work; or are they
chance run-in commercial like restaurants – they
with stephen can be public places like parks
50% car-free,
X it’s about the unexpected journey
development zones
dinner (and not the destinations) Family and Friends can be
destinations; special events etc car-quotas
free bus and train rides
Midnight fun shared transit
18. Supply-Side
South and Southeast
Developing Asia =
Asia excluding Singapore
Can Mobile phone intelligence improve the supply
of automobile alternatives?
1 SUPPLY FOR Rail economics highly 2 IMPACT of MOBILE PHONE
TRAVEL dependent on density;
Since costs are front-
INTELLIGENCE
loaded, often build for
Routing directions / mapping / local
political reasons
search lift all boats but especially
[Guerra & Cervero]
driving
Profit per passenger
Profit per passenger
Privatized Publicly Operated Privatized Publicly Operated
on-demand real-time tracking
fleet mgmt maintains / improves
improves ridership but likely
efficiency just marginally
bicycles walking bicycles walking
para para
air Autos transit buses rail No. of passengers air Autos transit buses rail No. of passengers
motorc motorc
ycles ycles
Washington metro has
one of the highest
Cost per ride + taxes + externalities
farebox recovery rates
at 60% of opex [nelson
Privatized b/c of high etal]
usage & competition in increases
Airports as developing countries prices along
most
with other
profitable
service
[Gomez-Ibanez & Meyer] improvements
Cost per ride + taxes + externalities
tension btwn lowering price to serve more
customers and maintaining operational
profitability which ultimately hits taxpayers so is a
net transfer
bicycles walking
para
air Autos transit buses rail
motorc less leverage
ycles potential to with rail
decrease prices prices since
for buses but profitability
is low
bicycles walking
travel demand elasticity
< 0.5 for rail &
sometimes negative for
para bus
air Autos transit buses rail better to improve [parry & small]
motorc sidewalks & walking paths
ycles transport subsidies do not seem to rather than subsidize
be an effective way of helping the better to improve
motorized transport
both transit and
poor
adjacent services
[Serebrisky etal]
19. South and Southeast Asia
private Motorization in
excluding Singapore
Leapfrog Development
Mobiles way ahead of autos
Private Autos per 100
106
Leapfrog City Form Mobile Phones per 100
81 India – 860+ m phones
75 73 vs. 13 m cars
63
40
information /
pedestrian city 27
mixed use city
16 17
transit city Auto-centric city
Transport 2 1 0
technologies change [inspired by dennis frenchman]
city form Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta Bangalore Dhaka
Lumpur
how will ubiquitous mobile
technologies change city
form?
failed history of leapfrog development
[tendler etal]
20. South and Southeast Asia
private Motorization in appropriate, scalable
technologies
excluding Singapore
Breakthrough technologies what can you
rapidly
prototype?
Mobile hardware Mobile sensors can make the
largely invisible much more visible
smartphones with 17+ sensors and shared peer to peer
low-cost smart city
Location-based (gps, wi-fi) largely invisible largely invisible
poor changing distributed
pedestrians physical form people-centric
environmental harm changing mobile phones and networks
things indoors inhabitants social / puts people in groups
peoples’ thoughts life lessons
peoples’ movements
our own physical
capabilities e.g.
running speed
shared
QR code back to
Data citizens
we can locate things on a
shared microscale (3-5 meters)
visualized commercially and in micro-time
digitally
SMSs
visualized what if we knew
physically everything that usually
goes on around us?
Location-
based
tracking
