This Month in Real Estate for Canada - December 2011
1. Commentary 2
Released:
The Numbers That Drive Real Estate 3
December 2011
Special Report 9
Brought to you by:
KW Research
2. Commentary
The national housing market remains strong and steady, despite continued discussion of
weakening economies in Europe. According to Gary Morose, CREA president, the increased
concern about global financial market volatility in the news “doesn’t appear to have damped
homebuyers’ spirits.“
Gregory Klump, CREA chief economist, goes on to say, “Headline news about economic
uncertainty has put only minor dents in consumer confidence. How confidence evolves
depends on how global turmoil plays out over the coming months. Should global economic
headwinds weigh more heavily than expected on Canadian economic prospects, the federal
government and Bank of Canada have made it clear they stand by ready to take flexible and
measured responses as appropriate.” He cites the foundation of this strong confidence as the
fiscal and monetary policy responses during the last recession that helped pull Canada back
into positive growth quickly.
A well-balanced housing market provides level playing field with opportunities for both buyers
and sellers. Interest rates remain historically low and present buyers with extremely favourable
financing so the time to act is now, because as global recovery regains its footing, rates will
likely rise to keep inflation in check, resulting in a higher monthly housing payment for
homebuyers.
Sources: CREA, Royal Bank of Canada KW Research 2
3. Home Sales 4
The Numbers That Home Price 5
Drive Real Estate Inventory
Mortgage Rates
7
8
Brought to you by:
KW Research
4. Home Sales
In Thousands
Resale housing activity ticked up slightly by 1.4%, although still falling in line with
long term averages—this is the highest level of sales since January. Although it
largely reflects a gain over the weakened activity one year ago, this marks the fifth
time since April 2010 that sales were up year-over-year. Moving forward, sales are
expected to remain stable.
38.8
37.3 38.3
39.3 38.3
36.1
20-Year Average: 32.0
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Data released on October 15, 2011
Sources: The Conference Board, CREA, Royal Bank of Canada
KW Research 4
5. Home Price
In Thousands
The average home price in October stood at $362,899—up 2.9% from last
month, and up 5.5% over last year. Earlier this year, elevated sales of higher-end
homes skewed the national average price higher. The drop in average
price, compared to earlier this year, is more a result of sales in the most expensive
markets coming back in line with normal levels, rather than a depreciation of overall
home values. This should have a minimal, if any, effect on buyers and sellers.
$371 $373
$363
$344 $350
$344 October’10-’11
October ’09-’10
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Data released on October 15, 2011
Sources: The Conference Board, CREA, Royal Bank of Canada
KW Research 5
6. Home Prices by Province and Territory
11 out of 12 provinces and territories experienced an increase in home prices
National Average: $362,899
Home Price Direction
YT (Year-Over-Year Change)
$308K
NT Prices Increased
NU
$451K
No Data Prices Decreased
BC NL & LB
AB $250K
$536K
$356K
SK MB
$264K QC
$235K ON
$266K
$375K PE $140K
NS $202K
NB $154K
KW Research 6
7. Inventory – Number of homes available for sale
Sales-to-New Listings Ratio
The national housing market remained balanced in October, and marked six
consecutive months of sales-to-new listings ratio between 52-53%. 60% of local
markets were balanced. Of the remaining 40% of local markets, more were in
seller’s markets than buyer’s markets. Balanced inventory indicates a greater
likelihood of a steady and stable market in the coming months, which is a good sign
for the housing market moving forward.
Seller’s
Market
2009–2010
Balanced
Market
2010–2011
Buyer’s
Market
53% 56% 55% 55% 54% 56% 52% 52% 52% 52% 52% 53% 53%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Data released on October 15, 2011
Sources: The Conference Board, CREA, Royal Bank of Canada
KW Research 7
8. Mortgage Rates
Average for 25-Year Amortization, 5-Year Term
Low interest rates and stabilizing home prices are bringing home ownership within
reach for an increasing number of Canadians. When widespread global recovery
gains a stronger footing, rates are expected to increase to keep inflation near the
2% target. The Bank of Canada has lost urgency for additional rate hikes, given the
increasing concerns over debt levels in Europe and weakening economic indicators
in the United States. The low rates offer increased affordability for home buyers.
Type Rate
1-Year Mortgage 3.50%
3-Year Mortgage 4.05%
5-Year Mortgage 5.29%
Historical Average 9.78%
Source: Bank of Canada KW Research 8
10. Deciding to Buy
When first-time home buyers decide they are ready to buy, it is important for them to begin
the process by carefully assessing their values, wants, and needs—both for the short and
long term. This is a critical step since consultation sessions normally start with the buyers’
values. Afterward, buyers can explore their wants and needs and, once defined, determine
actual criteria.
A recent study shows how important the following home-buying factors were to buyers:
• List Price: 72%
• Location: 69%
• Neighborhood: 55%
• Floor Plan: 37%
• Square Footage: 28%
• Schools: 22%
By having the home-buying criteria in mind before walking into a consultation, buyers are off
to a better start when meeting with their real estate sales professional. The consultation
allows buyers to fill in any missing gaps within their values, wants, and needs.
Source: KW Market Navigator and KW Research KW Research 10
11. Your Local Market
Although it is important to stay informed about what is going on in the
national economy and housing market, many different factors impact your
real estate market.
Talk to your KW associate for assistance interpreting the
conditions in your local market.
KW associates are equipped with the knowledge and information to help
navigate through the home-buying or selling process in any market.
KW Research 11
12. About Keller Williams Realty
Keller Williams Realty is the second-largest real estate franchise
operation in the United States, with 700 offices and more than
80,000 associates in the United States and Canada. The
company has grown exponentially since the opening of its first
office in 1983, and continues to cultivate its agent centric culture
emphasizing access to leading-edge education and promoting
an economic model that rewards associates as stakeholders.
The company also provides specialized agents in luxury homes
and commercial real estate properties. For more information, or
to search for homes for sale, visit Keller Williams Realty online at
www.kellerwilliams.ca
KW Research 12
13. The opinions expressed in This Month in Real Estate are intended to supplement opinions on real estate expressed by
local and national media, local real estate agents and other expert sources. You should not treat any opinion
expressed in This Month in Real Estate as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular
strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Keller Williams Realty, Inc. does not guarantee and is not responsible
for the accuracy or completeness of information, and provides said information without warranties of any kind. All
information presented herein is intended and should be used for educational purposes only. Nothing herein should be
construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain
professional advice before making any investment decision. All investments involve some degree of risk. Keller
Williams Realty, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information contained in This
Month in Real Estate.
KW Research 13