State of Mobile Commerce 2014 (Sucharita Mulpuru)

1. #monetatesummit StateofMobile Commerce2014 SucharitaMulpuru, VP and PrincipalAnalyst, Forrester

2. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Agenda: 5 Questions 1.How big is m-commerce now? 2.What are shoppers doing on different devices? 3.How much of a problem is mobile conversion? 4.What is important to know about retail apps? 5.How much are companies investing?

3. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited What are the data sources? ›Forrester’s forecasts and consumer surveys ›Data on mobile shopping from Bizrate Insights from 2011-present ›Data from Shop.org: The State of Retailing Online surveys ›Commissioned thought leadership papers

4. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Agenda: 5 Questions ›How big is m-commerce now? ›What are shoppers doing on different devices? ›How much of a problem is mobile conversion? ›What is important to know about retail apps? ›How much are companies investing?

5. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited First, some definitions (for these slides) ≠ Phablets, yes 200MM smartphone subscribers Mini tablets, yes 100MM tablet owners TabletSmartphone MOBILE

6. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited How much will phones generate in commerce? 2013 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F) 2018 (F) $46$42$37$32$26 $16 Source: Forrester’s Smartphone Commerce Forecast (do not distribute) US Smartphone Commerce $B (Physical goods and media)

7. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Other m-commerce categories make the figure even higher 2013 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F) 2018 (F) $36 $31 $26 $21 $17 $12 $46$42$37$32$26 $16 US Smartphone Commerce $B Travel and other services Source: Forrester’s Smartphone Commerce Forecast (do not distribute)

8. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited How much will tablets generate in commerce? 2013 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F) 2018 (F) $176 $141 $110 $81$56$34 US Tablet Commerce $B (Physical goods and media) Source: Forrester’s Smartphone Commerce Forecast (do not distribute)

9. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited The fully loaded tablet number 2013 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F) 2018 (F) $39 $33 $28 $21 $15 $8 $176 $141 $110 $81$56$34 US Tablet Commerce $B Travel and other services Source: Forrester’s Smartphone Commerce Forecast (do not distribute)

10. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Source: Forrester Forecasts; only includes physical goods and media categories 2013 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F) 2018 (F) $222$183$148$113$82$50 Phone and tablet commerce ($B) How this fares relative to the overall retail pie

11. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited How this fares relative to the overall retail pie 2013 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F) 2018 (F) $192$202$207$212$212$213 $222$183$148$113$82$50 Other eCommerce($B) Source: Forrester Forecasts; only includes physical goods and media categories

12. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 2013 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F) 2018 (F) $2,389$2,322$2,259$2,197$2,136$2,080 $192$202$207$212$212$213 $222$183$148$113$82$50 Non eCommerce/mobile sales ($B) How this fares relative to the overall retail pie Source: Forrester Forecasts; only includes physical goods and media categories

13. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited The iPhone is still important for online buyers 2011 2014 69% 54% % of web shoppers owning smartphones Types of devices owned Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Mobile Commerce Studies and Forrester Technographics 2013 Base: recent web buyers * Includes iPod Touch 49% 30% 3% 11% iPhone* Android-based phone Blackberry Other phone with web browsing

14. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited iPads dominate the tablet space 2011 2014 51% 12% % of web shoppers owning tablets Base: tablet ownersBase: recent web buyers 9% 16% 16% 55% iPad Mini Samsung Galaxy Amazon Kindle Fire iPad Types of devices owned Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Mobile Commerce Studies and Forrester Technographics 2013

16. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Mobile devices are used everywhere “Where do you use each of the following devices to access the Internet?” Source: The State of Consumers and Technology, Benchmark 2013, US

17. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Time on tablets is cannibalistic of PCs With the addition of your iPad/tablet to the devices that you already use to go online, do you spend more, less, or the same amount of time online? More time online Less time on PCs With the addition of your iPad/tablet to the devices that you already use to go online, how is your desktop computer/laptop usage affected? 2011 2014 46%49% 2011 2014 48%47% Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Mobile Commerce Studies

18. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 2011 2014 47% 40% 2011 2014 49% 41% This applies to phones too Since getting your smartphone/small screen mobile device, do you spend more, less, or the same total amount of time online (including using your computer and other devices you access to go online)? If you own both a smartphone/small screen mobile device and a desktop computer/laptop, then has the smartphone/small screen mobile device decreased the amount of time you use your desktop computer/laptop? More time online Less time on PCs Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Mobile Commerce Studies and Forrester Technographics 2013

19. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited More consumers are buying on phones Phone shopping breakout of smartphone owners 2011 2014 0%0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Buyers Browsers Non-buyers % of shoppers owning smartphones 54% 69% • Balanced between genders  • Heaviest buying among Gen Y and Gen X (under 44)  • $150k+ incomes slightly more than average Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Mobile Commerce Studies

20. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited And of course on tablets too Tablet shopping breakout of tablet owners 2011 2014 0%0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Buyers Browsers Non-buyers • Buying balanced between genders  • Gen X heavy (30-44)  • $75-100k and $150k+ incomes heaviest tablet buyers % of shoppers owning tablets 12% 51% Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Mobile Commerce Studies

21. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Top shopping activities on phones vs tablets 1 Read emails from retailers Browse or research products 2 Receive texts with special offers from retailers Read emails from retailers 3 Locate retail stores/hours/directions Compare prices while shopping online 4 Browse or research products Read product or store reviews 5 Download or redeem coupons Identify where products are sold Please note which of the following you do with your mobile device(s) with respect to any online retailer. Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Mobile Commerce Studies

22. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of VISA, September 2013 Where the shopping journey starts on different devices Base: 1003 smartphone shoppers (research or purchase) Search is important on all devices 26% 42% 54% Email message from a retailer I search for something specific on a retailer's site I search for something specific using a search engine 38% 60% 69% 27% 51% 57%

23. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Email is also essential 81% of web buyers read emails on phones because the phone is always with them; 48% like that the phone has no email login 67% of web buyers say that they were inspired to buy something after opening an email on a mobile phone Desktop Smartphone Tablet 22% 37% 75% I read promotional emails from [merchant X] on my… Source: Bizrate Insights Industry Hot Topic Q4, 2013

25. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Mobile conversion is generally terrible August 2012 August 2013 Smartphone 0.6% 0.6% Tablet 1.6% 1.5% Desktop 1.9% 2.2% Conversion rates of US retail websites Source: Adobe Digital Index

26. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Phones are just not easy for buying How easy would you say it is to complete an online PURCHASE using the device(s) listed below? 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Very easy Easy Neutral Difficult Type of device rated Base: 834 consumers who purchased on PCs/laptops; 377 consumers who purchased on tablets; 640 consumers who purchased on smartphones Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of Visa, September 2013

27. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of VISA, September 2013 Under $50 $50-$99 $100-$499 $500+ 3% 15% 26% 56% Base: 1003 smartphone shoppers (research or purchase) Transactions are smaller on phones too “About how much have you spent on products and services when PURCHASING on these devices online in the past month? (Including shipping and handling.) 14% 34% 31% 22% 6% 21% 32% 41%

28. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Mobile buyers are more likely to switch devices Thinking about [the last online shopping experience], did you use multiple devices during that experience? Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of Visa, September 2013 Multiple devices 49% 53% 23% 42% PC Tablet Phone One device 45% Can’t recall 5% One device 44% Multiple devices 52% Can’t recall 4% Multiple devices 39% One device 54% Can’t recall 7% 46% 36% 39% PC Tablet Phone 53% 22% 43% PC Tablet Phone Deviceswitchedto whenswitched

29. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of VISA, September 2013 Base: 1003 smartphone shoppers (research or purchase) “Why haven't you PURCHASED a product on your device?” Shoppers often prefer PCs Base: 228 mobile non-buyers Base: 89 tablet non-buyers 47% 58% 67% I don't want to store my financial information on my phone It is more comfortable to sit at a computer and shop The screen is too small 39% 43% 22%

30. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Agenda: 5 Questions ›How big is m-commerce now? ›What are shoppers doing on different devices? ›How much of a problem is mobile conversion? ›What is important to know about retail apps? ›How much are retailers investing?

31. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited These are the most common retail apps Which of the following types of online shopping apps, if any, have you downloaded to your smartphone/small screen mobile device? Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Mobile Commerce Studies 42% 8% 15% 33% I have not downloaded an app Fashion trends or tech reviews Comparison shopping Retailer- specific apps 2011 2012 2013 2014 41% 7% 15% 36% 37% 7% 16% 40% 33% 9% 14% 45%

32. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Shoppers discover phone apps mainly through word of mouth How do you learn about the apps that you install on your device? Base: recent online buyers who own smartphones or tablets Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Mobile Commerce Studies 14% 6% 11% 20% 21% 25% 59% I don't install apps Sign in a retail store Retailer websites An ad on TV/radio/print The app store Social media (e.g. Facebook) Word of mouth (e.g. friends, family, colleagues) 12% 6% 11% 21% 26% 25% 55% Base: recent online buyers who own smartphones or tablets

33. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited How do you learn about the apps that you install on your device? ›“My husband does it” ›“My children” ›“What I need at a particular time” ›“I ask teenagers” Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Mobile Commerce Studies

34. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited #156 Few customers say they need a retailer’s app If you have interacted with [MerchantName] on a mobile device, then which experience do you prefer? Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Mobile Commerce Studies 37 % 7 % 6 % 19 % 30 % Accessing the standard website (i.e. the same view you would see on your computer) Using the mobile version of the site (i.e. the site may have less content but is optimized to look Using an app (if this retailer has one available for download) I don't have a preference I have never interacted with [Merchant] from a mobile device

35. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited #157 The challenges for apps remain large ›Apps can often be cumbersome to download ›Apps are difficult to fine ›Apps need to be upgraded ›Most apps do not get repeat usage ›Apps could be subject to privacy restrictions

36. © 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Yet, more than 40% of mobile phone transactions happen on apps “Thinking of the last time you bought something on your smartphone, how did you complete your transaction?” Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of Amazon.com, January 2013 “Thinking of the last time you bought something on your [tablet or PC], how did you complete your transaction?” Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of VISA, September 2013 59% 41% On a smartphone through a website On a smartphone through an application Base: 528 mobile phone buyers Base: 311 tablet and PC buyers (of non-phone buyers) 4% 14% 83% On a tablet through an application On a tablet through a website On a computer 59% 41% On a smartphone through a website On a smartphone through an application Base: 528 mobile phone buyers Base: 311 tablet and PC buyers (of non-phone buyers) 4% 14% 83% On a tablet through an application On a tablet through a website On a computer

37. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited #159 Agenda: 5 Questions ›How big is m-commerce now? ›What are shoppers doing on different devices? ›How much of a problem is mobile conversion? ›What is important to know about retail apps? ›How much are companies investing?

40. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Ensuring different types of connectivity in stores could be useful Base: mobile consumers who research or buy in physical stores How do you usually access the internet on your various devices? Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of VISA, September 2013 80% 71% 32% 1% 0% 3G/4G connection On a password protected WiFi connection On an open WiFi connection Using dial up Don't know Most common store options

42. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited #164 Takeaways and summary ›Mobile phones are used more than tablets but phone sessions are arguably far less valuable; device switching is also a given ›Offline shopping is a significant outcome of phone browsing ›Non-buyers on mobile don’t buy because of screen size and/or privacy concerns; more will become buyers over time ›Every venue is now a place where shoppers use phones and tablets ›Tablets drive most of the m-commerce revenue ›Apps convert well but need to master “mobile moments” ›Time online has changed significantly; even phones are now cannibalizing the PC ›Entire mobile budgets remain modest for most eBusinesses; mobile uncertainty remains a concern

43. Thank you Sucharita Mulpuru smulpuru@forrester.com ! ! ! forrester.com

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