11. Rate-Based
Goals
By the time you try 20 things,
Say the things
you try have a
64% chance of success
5% chance of
success…
By the time you try 50 things,
92% chance of success
12. So to maximize the
rate of learning,
we dramatically
minimize the
time to try things
15. How would we prototype…
a Business Model?
What Conversations Need to Happen?
Act them out!
What Processes Need to Work?
Prototype their operation!
16. How would we prototype…
a Software System?
What screens would people see?
Sketch them and use immediately!
What function does it need to provide?
Simulate it!
17. How would we prototype…
a Machine / Device?
What is it’s physical form?
Simulate it!
What is it’s function?
Try it the cheapest way you can
18. How would we prototype…
a Marketing Campaign?
What will people need to know/feel?
Draw, present to strangers, listen…
What thinking factors into the sale?
Let people know their role / motivation…
19. How do you find a path…
from the unknown to a high-quality outcome?
the Possible
Unknown Outcomes
t
20. Research Development
maximize rate of learning drive efficiency/quality
1. Branch into
broad & fast
exploration
3. Constellate 4. Build
your results
2. Extend / prune
21. Benefits of Rates
1. Simple way to measure progress
2. Immediately actionable – no more waiting
3. Allows you evaluate experiments faster
4. When you can evaluate faster, you can
experiment faster