Wp businessmodels in TIME Atos Consulting

S E E I N G T H I N G S D I F F E R E N T LY
Business models in time
A guide for TIME companies:
How to make the jump to 2020
White paper

Table of Contents
Foreword 3
Executive Summary 4
1. introduction 6
2. Likely Truths and Uncertainties 8
3. Scenarios 11
3.1 Introduction 11
3.2 Scenario 1 - Brands pipes 11
3.3 Scenario 2 - User’s Choice 12
3.4 Scenario 3 - Green Shift 13
3.4 Scenario 4 - All-Inclusive 14
4. Business models 16
4.1 Introduction 16
4.2 Brands and Pipes Business models 16
4.3 User Choice Business Models 19
4.4 Green Shift Business Model 21
4.5 All-Inclusive Business Model 22
Concluding Remarks 24
About the authors 25
About the companies 26

3
Foreword
Ericsson and Atos Consulting have joined forces in a thorough exploration of your and our business for the coming
10 years. Ericsson conducted an international survey to establish a vision in which direction the TIME (Telecom, IT,
Media Entertainment ) industry is heading. The four most likely scenarios for 2020 are thoroughly researched. Based
on this vision Atos Consulting developed insights into the business models needed for each scenario. Our goal is to
share an independent and authoritative view on the future of the TIME industry. We hope this will help you to reflect
upon your business and to keep ahead of competition.
This white paper, will give you insight in a future that is uncertain for all of us. We hope to give you direction with
a vision on scenarios and possible business models to prepare your organization. We trust that we will take your
thinking further and you will benefit from our suggestions and recommendations to prepare for the jump to 2020.
On behalf of all contributors to this white paper, we wish you a pleasant and foremost inspirational read!
Ericsson Atos Consulting

4
Executive Summary
The past few years change seems to be accelerating
for the TIME (Telecom, ICT, Media and Entertainment)
industry. There have been tremendous changes
in the way people, governments and business’
share information. Because of these dynamics, it is
difficult to prepare for the future. Scenario planning
is a proven method for strategy development in a
turbulent environment. It helps to elicit likely truths and
uncertainties in a market and describes the possible
futures and mechanisms that drive these futures.
In this paper we take you one step further. To start with
we identified likely truths and uncertainties that resulted
in four future scenarios. Going the step further we also
look at the way organizations are most likely to react
and respond to such changes by defining the business
models accompanying those futures.
Scenario 1 - Brand Pipes: Simplicity and
convenience win over variety, turning brands
into partners
Services and content are separated from the access
and transport of information. In several waves, more and
more services will be offered online, including services
that traditionally have been offered in other ways, such
as telephony, TV, and movie rentals. Here the service
provider is in the driver seat, rather than the customer.
It is an extrapolation of the 2010 relationships. On the
one hand the brand will have an extreme focus on
the customer relationship, while the pipe will have an
extreme focus on cost and scale in the network. Brands
and Pipes will have to work together to service the end
customer.
Scenario 2 – User’s Choice: Demand for
seamless services, the emergence of the
network operation system
Despite being impressed by the Internet model, people
and enterprises will grow increasingly concerned
with the user friendliness of services, the complexity
of access technologies and user devices, and the
unpredictable quality.
The facilitating operator has more focus on the
infrastructure as a service and will partner with the
service innovator. The business models used by
network operators focus on generating revenues,
combined with resources. This is mainly due to the
customers needs and their trust in the facilitating
network operators. The service innovator business
model is also focused on the revenue side from an
innovation perspective.
Scenario 3 – The Green Shift: Everything
measured by sustainability
Sustainability and regulation are the main drivers.
When climate change seriously enters national and
international agendas, it will become politically correct
to be in favor of lifestyle and business style changes
to reduce CO2
emissions. Strong public opinion will
bring about profound political actions on sustainability
issues that resolutely change conditions for societies,
companies, and individuals world-wide.
Here regulatory pressure will slow down growth but
stimulate innovation in sustainable solutions. It could be
combined with any of the other scenarios.
Scenario 4 - All-Inclusive: Requirements of
convenience and trust will result in all-
inclusive but less innovative offerings
Large scale operators are the consequence of a decade
of consolidation in the market. The new all-inclusive
offerings will comprise communication, broadcasting,
content, and all kinds of access and devices. It will
become more difficult to enter the industry, and the larger
companies most probably will grow and improve their
position. Entrants and innovative parties will align with the
bigger companies and attempt to serve their niche.
Although the scenarios are very different, the business
models show a number of similarities. These similarities
result, next to the likely truths, in so-called no-regret
strategies for TIME companies:
Implement activity based costing; activity based
costing will become more and more important. Insight
into all aspects of the organization and running the
business is crucial to survival.
Transform Network Management; focus on
scale in Network Operations and embrace the IT
transformation and put Network/IT at the heart of the
company.

5
Build up partnership skills; partnership is key,
especially in the User’s Choice scenario, distinctive
partnership capability will mark the rise or fall of TIME
companies. Flexible or multiple partner relations are
required, with its effect on intellectual property, costs
and revenue sharing.
Enhanced trust and reputation: creating trust is another
returning aspect, either with customers or partners.
This is something that is not common practice in most
companies and will need to be developed.
These scenarios indicate different implications for the
way companies in the TIME industry make money. One
thing is sure, it will require a major change in the vision
of companies operating in the current industry.
The first Chapter of this paper consists of a theory
based introduction for scenario planning and business
modeling. This is the first step to help TIME companies
prepare for their future in an optimal way. To be able
to describe four future scenarios we have identified
likely truths and uncertainties that have the biggest
impact on the future of the TIME industry as described
in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 consists of the four derived
scenarios completed with an overview of what the
scenario may look like. After the possible developments
per scenario are described, we will show you what the
consequences are of the scenarios on the business
models as drawn up in Chapter 4. The final Chapter
summarizes our findings and contains our concluding
remarks completed with no-regret strategies.
Brands Pipes User’s Choice Green shift All-Inclusive
User
perspective
Users want branded “life
style” service packages
(based on trust, loyalty)
Active users want choice
among an abundance of
services (open market)
Users demand utility and
sustainability solutions
Users will get bundled
offerings (convenient but
locked-in)
Industry
perspective
Large consolidated service
providers separated from
pure access transport
networks
Fragmented service
providers on top of a service
support layer “network
operating system”
Consolidated service
providers on top of a
(regulated standardized)
service support layer
Vertically integrated
providers of everything
from content to transport
access
Context Global economy, high
economic growth
Global economy, high
economic growth, strong
renewal of business models
Government regulation,
regionalized economies,
lower economic growth
Regionalized economies
(US, Asia), lower economic
growth
Business
Model
With two business models
(brands and pipes) the
market is an extrapolation
of the current 2010
relationships, with a clear
separation of network and
brand
The facilitating network
operator and service
innovator business models
result in high innovation
supported by facilitating
networks
The green aspects of the
scenario can be found in
all aspects of the business
model, from customers to
infrastructure, costs and
revenue
Unlike the other business
models balance between
the different aspects of the
model is less necessary

6
introduction
Since the early nineties, when monopolies ended, the
telecommunications sector has changed considerably.
The last years however, these changes seem to be
accelerating. There have been tremendous changes in
the way people, governments and businesses share
information. Traditional ways of communication have
changed profoundly as new ways of communication
and business models have emerged. This evolution is
just starting, and will have a huge impact. What once
seemed distinct communications (and related) industries
with distinct value chains now are intertwined towards
a new, holistic content communications value chain
in which all players compete for their customers’
favors and want to conquer new market shares and
profits. We call that the TIME (Telecom, IT, Media and
Entertainment) industry.
What will the next decade bring for the TIME industry?
What kind of evolution, opportunities and threats will
we see in the post-crisis world? As commercial capital
lending might be more restricted, organizations will need
to carefully select their investment opportunities. And
Western enterprises will face much greater competition
from the emerging economies in Asia, particularly
India and China. What will drive future growth? Are we
going from an international business driven world to a
business world that focuses on continents? Technology
will certainly play its part. Information management
and business intelligence is becoming more and more
widespread as organizations unlock the potential of
engaging with multiple work communities in the hyper-
connected marketplace. Indeed, the management of
information to generate new and promising business
opportunities will be key.
Our goal is to share with you an independent and
authoritative view on the TIME industry for the next ten
years and share insights that will help you reflect upon
your business and choose direction to stay ahead of
competition. In our reconnaissance we will share our
views on:
Trends affecting the TIME industry.
Four possible future scenarios.
Characteristics of future business models applied to
these scenarios.
1.1 Scenario planning
Scenario planning is a proven method for strategy
development in a turbulent environment. It helps to elicit
likely truths and uncertainties in a market. Our approach
to scenario planning results in four scenarios of the
future, each with a specific business model on how best
to approach that future.
An important part of the value of scenarios lies in the
strategic discussions they initiate. These discussions
will deliver new insights as well as strategic options.
By exploring possible futures and identifying the
mechanisms that drive these futures, companies will
be better prepared. Scenario planning helps business
leaders to think out-of-the-box in a structured way.
It enables the discussion about the impact and
uncertainty of business trends. As a result, if the
changes occur, the management will be better prepared
and more able to deal with the changes as they have
already thought about the possible consequences. To
develop TIME scenarios we have in the first place made
an overview of likely truths that can be seen today.
Those “likely truths” are valid for each of the scenarios.
An example is the trend of a, worldwide, growing
middle-class, resulting in about one billion extra middle-
class consumers in 2020.
Secondly, there are a number of issues that are more
difficult to predict. A number of factors could have a
more determined impact on the future, depending on
the way it turns out. An example is the effect of climate
change, and the way that governments will react
with profound regulation to decrease CO2
emission.
Currently, this is an uncertainty that could develop in
various ways. Several of those uncertain factors can be
identified. By making different combinations of those
variable factors, different scenarios can be created.
1.2 Business Modeling
Where scenarios describe possible futures and the
mechanisms that drive these futures, the way an
organization reacts or responds to such changes in
order to create the greatest value possible can be
described with a business model. This will help the
company to prepare in an optimal way.

7
A business model describes the rationale of how an
organization creates, delivers, and captures economic,
social, or other forms of value. In theory and practice
the term business model is used for a broad range
of informal and formal descriptions to represent core
aspects of a business, including purpose, offerings,
strategies, infrastructure, organizational structures,
trading practices, and operational processes and
policies. We will work with the definition of Osterwalder:
“A business model is a conceptualization of the money
earning logic of a firm.”1
Figure 1 shows that a business model is a translation of
the company strategy into four elements: Product (value
proposition), Market, Infrastructure and Financials. The
value proposition is placed at the heart of the model.
This consists of the products and/or services that the
company offers to its customers. The market deals with
the customer relationship and the channels that are
used to interact with the customer. The infrastructure
elements explain the key activities and required
resources and partnerships in order to deliver these
activities to the customers. The financials discuss the
resulting costs and revenue models in order to create
shareholder value.
This model winds down to nine elements that enable an
accurate description of a business model.
Different scenarios ask for different business models
and in one scenario there may be several viable
business models.
Partnership
network
Key
Activities
Cost
model
Key
Resources
Customer
relationship
Customer
segments
Distribution
channels
Revenue
model
Value
proposition
Shareholder
value
Strategy
Infrastructure Market
Financials
Figure 1: Elements of a business model1
1. Based on A. Osterwalder, Y. Pigneur, 2004, An ontology for e-business models, University of Lausanne G.C. Brockhoff, J.A. Emanuels, B. Verweij, 2006,
New Business Planning, Turning Compelling Ideas Into Sustainable Value, Deventer, Kluwer

8
Likely Truths and
Uncertainties
2.1 Introduction
We have surveyed the trends that can be seen today.
These trends are called “likely truths”, as they are
quite certain to continue in the future. We have plotted
the likely truths on the scenarios (Chapter 3) but it is
assumed that these trends will continue, independent of
any scenario.
Besides the likely truths, there are numerous factors
that are less predictable. These variables are the basis
for the distinction between the various scenarios. In
paragraph 2.3 some of the most important uncertain
factors will be described.
2.2 Likely Truths
We established thirteen likely truths that we will
elaborate on:
Networking, personalization and mobility will
radically transform user patterns
Markets will become increasingly mobile, transparent,
and efficient. As a massive movement, information
seeking users participate in online social networks,
communicating, comparing, producing, sharing, and
collaborating. Consumers will be more diverse, blurring
traditional market segmentation criteria and increasing
fragmentation. With this comes a change in lifestyle
towards increased individualism and personalization
of products, shaping communication behaviors, online
services, and tools will occur.
ICT solutions will be increasingly critical for
enterprises to secure sustainable competitiveness
Globalization, restrained workforces, resource scarcities,
and the demand for sustainable solutions, drive
the need for increased productivity and maintaining
competitive edge for businesses and government
bodies. Self service applications, machine to machine
communication and automation will be examples of this,
transforming business processes. Companies will also
continue to direct IT budgets at making their strategic
knowledge workers more effective.
One billion new middle-class consumers will enter
the global marketplace, mainly in Asia
The number of middle-class consumers globally almost
doubles as one billion new consumers enter the global
market place, shifting the map of consumers towards
Asia. The majority of the new middle-class will be in
China and India. As they climb the income ladder, they
evolve the preferences of brands and move up the
hierarchy of needs. These needs must however, be
met at lower price points. As average income levels
increase, so do the issues of social inequalities and
rapid urbanization.
Operator consolidation, cross-industry
collaboration, and low-cost innovation will
redefine the industry
Enterprises drastically increase their collaboration within
and across industries, utilizing communication methods
and tools far beyond those of today. Services will
increasingly be provided across borders through large
scale intercompany cooperation. New emerging market
multinationals and brands enter the global market
place. Technology advancements, competition and
commoditization will put pressure on existing telecom
services, affecting revenues and margins. The industry
will need to respond. Some sub-industries will be more
convergent, and consolidation of operators in the same
geographical areas will continue.
Most user services will be delivered independent
of the network provider
IP will be the prevailing delivery rule, and the vertical
dependence between services and infrastructures will
gradually disappear. Users will access services and
content independently of the network provider. Business
models will vary, but lower entry barriers and innovation
will increase exposure to other service providers offering
the same service cheaper or without user charge,
financed by alternative business models.
Everything that benefits from a wireless network
connection will have one
Markets will become increasingly mobilized, also
increasing the share of services delivered online.
Technology in itself will not be a limiting factor for
the diffusion of new products and services. New
applications will make new combinations in scientific
fields such as bio-, nano-, materials-, and information
technology, opening up for new services in e.g.

9
health care, automation, positioning, and information
management. Everything that can benefit from a
network connection will have one. Usability and
simplicity will be in demand.
China and India will take their place as economic
powers with fundamental global impact
The world economy will be substantially larger, and
developing economies will contribute with more
than half of the economic growth. China and India
will propel Asia into a more dominant position in the
global economy, changing the balance of power and
affecting the geopolitical landscape. Innovation will
flourish in these countries as education reaches higher
populations.
Sustainability and scarcity of resources will shape
political agendas and ignite conflicts
Political agendas will remain turbulent. Competition for
natural resources and commodities intensifies, with
resources largely concentrated to unstable regions.
Political instruments will be used to create energy
efficiencies and reduce CO2
emissions. In some areas
regulation will be radical, and markets and industries will
have to adjust accordingly.
Societal vulnerabilities will increase dependency
on safety and security solutions
Global issues and a continued shift to wireless and
online will bring new societal vulnerabilities. Cyber
crime and malware will be increasingly common, and
dependencies on the availability of information and
communication systems will increase. Restricted online
anonymity and privacy raises integrity concerns. As
a result, security and consumer protection related
regulation will increase and industries will move to
capture these new opportunities.
The battle on user identity
In a short-term attempt to retain consumers, we will see
operators introducing single sign-on solutions, bringing
all their online, media, and telecom products under
a single customer logon. We will also see operators
moderating these identities with other vendors such as
banks or retailers. However, they are competing against
Microsoft, Google, governments, and numerous open
initiatives. Ultimately, the telecom industry will not be the
custodian of a user’s identity. We can expect to see this
struggle continuing for the coming years.
Device Innovation
2010 is the year of device innovation. We can expect
to see almost every consumer device equipped with
wireless Internet connectivity. With the continued lower
cost of computing we will also see intelligence and
connectivity in the most mundane of objects. Demand
for network bandwidth will massively increase.
Future workforce
The green agenda and consumer quality-of-life
expectations will see increased working from home. This
will lead to greater demand for fast, reliable, and secure
networking. The future workforce will be entirely virtual
and more akin to teenagers playing computer games
than businessmen meeting in offices. New teams,
opportunities, and products will be constructed and
exploited within hours rather than weeks. The generation
Y workforce — whose members have not yet hit 30 —
are massive TIME consumers. Their success means
more demand on the network, and more demand
on the identity, security, and content features of that
network. There is an increased awareness of personal
and family security. Virtual worlds are becoming very
popular in the pre-adolescent and teen demographics.
Internet companies are finding new ways to open
new markets and extract revenue from previously
untapped demographics. Data analysis provides the
ability to predict individual or group behavior. The
telecom company launches initiatives to investigate
the possibilities of deriving revenue from exploitation of
this data power. While we can expect to see legislation
to protect consumers from this type of behavior we
can also expect to see government initiatives to have
access to this data. The telecom company has the
consumer’s identity information and their trust. This is
especially noticeable for telecom companies that were
the beneficiaries. We will see some telecom companies
lead innovation to exploit this rich resource rather than
investing heavily in old-fashioned telephony features.
Customer Excellence
The natural contradiction between customer intimacy
and operational excellence makes way for a new
paradigm. New business process models and IT create
possibilities to combine both issues. In this new model
the organization will be excellent towards customers
as well as to their own objectives. Enterprise 2.0, also
known as the Agile Enterprise will be the network
organization of the future.

10
2.3 Uncertainties
There are a number of factors that are less certain
to predict. Depending on the development of these
uncertainties, the future might look quite different. We
established five uncertainties:
Shapers of development and user preferences
Who will shape the direction of the development? Will it
mainly be the industry that determines the future, or are
the user preferences dominant in shaping the direction?
In the latter case, what are the user preferences? Do
users seek convenience (leaning backward), or are they
active (leaning forward) and looking for choice? The
answer to this question is unsure and will also have an
impact on the service provider market: Will this be a
consolidated market (a few number of large players), or
will it be fragmented, with a lot of players?
Network and service architecture
Some think that network connectivity and user service
providers will be completely separated, resulting in pure
access transport networks. Others think that providers
of connectivity and user services may be vertically
integrated, and that networks will have strong service
support functions. This uncertainty will definitely have a
large impact on the TIME market and the value chain.
Devices
Another uncertainty is the future development of
devices. Will devices be all-purpose, only loosely
integrated with user services, and based on “thin
clients”? Or will devices be specialized, optimized for
particular user services, with “thick clients”?
Regulatory action on sustainability
What will the reaction of governments and regulatory
bodies be to climate change? Will this lead to profound
regulatory action? Or will governments choose not to
impose strict regulation on sustainability? The answer to
this question will determine the future of the TIME sector
drastically.
Economic growth
After the worldwide recession, how will the economy
develop? Will we see a global economy in a new
high-growth period, or will we see more regionalized
economies, with lower economic growth?

11
Scenarios
3.1 Introduction
Starting from the likely truths and the uncertainties
as described in the previous Chapter, a number of
scenarios can be developed. This resulted in four
mainstream scenarios, each describing a plausible
future in TIME.
3.2 Scenario 1 - Brands pipes: Simplicity and
convenience win over variety, turning brands
into partners
In the Brand Pipes scenario, the Internet model with
services and content separated from the access, and
transport of information will turn out to be unbeatable.
In several waves, more and more services will be
offered online using this model, including services that
traditionally have been offered in other ways, such as
telephony, TV, and movie rentals (Figure 2).
The winners in this evolution will be a limited number
of large and innovative service providers – brands. Key
industry shapers might be companies such as Sony,
Apple, Google, Yahoo!, or similar new companies.
Services are delivered over-the-top by brands,
independent of network providers.
Users will demand a convenient and trusted lifestyle,
and business style service packages. Users will become
tired of browsing through all the choices (and rubbish)
online and they will turn to their brand partners for a
comprehensive array of entertaining, useful, and reliable
services. The development of services is therefore
driven by this user demand. The industry, especially the
brands, will shape the solutions offered to the users.
Brands will offer a selection of services that range across
a wide disparity of lifestyles. Not all brands will fit all
people, but the number and the variety of brands will be
large enough to satisfy most needs. Brands are creating
Figure 2: Settings of uncertainties of the Brands Pipes scenario
User preferences will
shape the direction of
development
Industry and context
factors will shape the
direction of development
Consolidated user
service providers
Fragmented service
provider market
Pure access and
transport networks
Networks with converged
strong service support
functions
Separation of network
connectivity user
service providers
providers of connectivity
user services
Global economy,
high economic growth
Regionalized economies,
Profound regulatory
action on sustainability
No profound regulatory
All-purpose devices
loosely integrated
with user services
Specialized devices
integrated with
user services
Users want choice
(they are explorative,
independent not loyal)
Users want convenience,
bundled offerings
provider relationships

12
value by integrating services with devices or Internet
specific offerings (using e.g. meta data, software as a
service, and advanced data mining) and by leveraging
convenience, brand loyalty and security to achieve
customer lock-in. Branded packages will attract money
from traditional telephony, media, advertising and IT
as well as from other wallets and business budgets.
Devices that will be used will not be generic, but
powerful, intelligent, and dedicated branded thick clients.
Devices will be “locked” and tied to the brand’s specific
service offerings.
Many traditional operators will fail in capturing multimedia
revenues and end up being wholesalers and provide
only access and transport, some will manage to become
brands and only a few will become both. The others
will be acquired and split up. This development will lead
to an expansion of the model with services delivered
over-the-top independently of network providers and will
eventually dominate the entire TIME industry.
Telecom regulation will take a more observing stance.
Competition will work to a sufficient degree and
consumer interests will be less likely to be harmed when
services are separated from infrastructure offerings.
3.3 Scenario 2 - User’s Choice: Demand for
seamless services, the emergence of the
network operating system
The second scenario is “User’s Choice”. Despite
being impressed by the Internet model, people and
enterprises will grow increasingly concerned with the
user friendliness of services, the complexity of access
technologies and user devices, and the unpredictable
quality. They will continue to demand a broad selection
of services but also require dedicated and reliable
solutions to personal and business needs. Independent
and explorative users want to be able to choose,
resulting in a boom of service innovation (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Setting of uncertainties of the User’s Choice scenario
development
Consolidated user
service providers
Fragmented service
provider market
Pure access and
transport networks
functions
connectivity user
service providers
user services
Global economy,
Profound regulatory
All-purpose devices
loosely integrated
with user services
Specialized devices
integrated with
user services
Users want choice
bundled offerings

13
With the combined demand from users, and supply
from service providers as a major driving force, a
movement towards the development of a more capable
and reliable network will start. A common network
operating system will bridge and “hide” the complexity
of different technologies, user devices, and commonly
used applications, and create a network designed for
delivering every kind of user service and experience.
Because of this facilitation towards users, the facilitating
network operators will win the trust of the users; unlike
the brands pipes scenario, where the trust is directed
towards the brands.
A group of responsive players from different industries will
come together, agree on, and develop a network platform
that reclaims value from other players in the value chain
above the network level. For example, vendors from the
telecom and datacom industries might take the lead and
join forces with pro-active network operators.
With new advanced network capabilities and a common
interface for developing and delivering services, it will
become easier for users and service providers alike to
pursue their ends. Significantly lowered entry barriers
will drive over-the-top service innovation and user
choice will explode when a huge amount of new online
providers will serve a multitude of unique user needs.
These new network services (such as guaranteed
quality, payment, security, and real time performance)
will be worth paying for and will gradually emerge as
an important revenue generator for the operators.
Traditional voice services and pure broadband
access will become commodities. At the same time,
competition will increase among independent service
providers on top of the network that will lead to strong
fragmentation and lower margins.
3.4 Scenario 3 - Green Shift: Everything
measured by sustainability
The third scenario is “Green Shift”, where sustainability
and regulation are the main drivers. When climate
change seriously enters national and international
agendas, it will become politically correct to be in
favor of lifestyle and business style changes to reduce
CO2
emissions. Strong public opinion will bring about
profound political actions on sustainability issues that
resolutely changes conditions for societies, companies
and individuals world-wide. Sustainability is high on
the governmental agenda and if it was not high on the
agenda of the TIME industry yet, it will certainly become
very important in the years to come (Figure 4).
The world will start to measure more or less everything
by sustainability standards, whether it is quality of life,
business success or government actions. Lifestyle
and business conduct will change towards less
environmental impact, through individual preference or
economic or legal necessity. People and enterprises
will initially readily accept the new regulatory conditions
designed to reduce CO2
emissions and to encourage
sustainable behavior.
Legislation and regulations (for example to restrict travel
and energy consumption) mixed with tax incentives for
sustainable behavior will create new consumption and
business patterns. Overall, utility and necessities take
a larger share of users’ wallets and budgets. This will
create a boom in innovation of ICT services, such as
e-health, e-government, e-work, M2M communications,
including solutions for telepresence, logistics etc.
Companies will add a second bottom line focused
on sustainability. They will optimize their business
processes to meet environmental demands and they will
develop climate smart offerings. At the same time, the
push for more localized production will increase market
fragmentation, and drive the regionalization of the world
economy. On average the world economy will grow less
due to these developments.

14
Climate-efficient online services will be delivered
by trusted utility providers using loosely integrated
all-purpose user devices. System Integration and
IT companies addressing enterprise verticals will be
best suited to capture sustainability opportunities in the
business domain. Many users will demand an extended
lifetime of devices, systems and technologies.
Parts of the TIME industry will be re-regulated to secure
the availability of affordable sustainability enhancing
services, to force industry players to pool their resources
and to ensure that networks are capable, reliable and
robust. This will drive a new wave of investments in
the industry at the same time as price regulations are
enforced. Overall, the TIME industry will grow more
compared to other industries.
3.4 Scenario 4 - All-Inclusive: Requirements
of convenience and trust will result in all-
inclusive but less innovative offerings
The fourth scenario is the “All-Inclusive” scenario. Large
and vertically integrated regional players will be created
through cross-industry merger and acquisitions across
the telecom, IT, media, entertainment, and electronics
sectors. The new all-inclusive offerings will comprise
communication, broadcasting, content, and all kinds of
access and devices (Figure 5).
This stage will be set by dominant players in the TIME
industry with large financial resources together with
more relaxed anti-trust legislation. Starting point for this
scenario is the observation that the majority of users will
turn out to be conservative and not very keen on trying
out new things or to abandon their traditional providers.
This favors the large traditional players in comparison
with the new so called Internet players.
Figure 4: Setting of uncertainties of the Green Shift scenario
development
Consolidated user
service providers
Fragmented service
provider market
Pure access and
transport networks
functions
connectivity user
service providers
user services
Global economy,
Profound regulatory
All-purpose devices
loosely integrated
with user services
Specialized devices
integrated with
user services
Users want choice
bundled offerings

15
Users will be served by one service provider with one
stop shopping of complete lifestyle and business style
deals. The focus will be on convenience, trust and
simplicity. The mergers that will lead to all-inclusive
companies, will increase entry barriers for competitors
to capitalize on large locked-in customer bases. Less
competition will mean less innovation and service
differentiation. Also, the lack of viable alternatives will
benefit the big players.
Vertical integration will be the dominating operational
model, and the all-inclusive providers will see to it that also
outsourced operations fit into the model. Depending on
circumstances these players will have varying degrees of
vertical integration, but they will always control the interface
towards users, even if their added value is very small.
Converged consumer electronics and mobile devices
will become subsidized and locked as integrated parts
of the all-inclusive deals. Devices will be branded and
specialized, increasingly dependent on the networks,
and incorporate service support functions necessary
to create integrated services and a coherent user
experience. The dominating position of the large players
will drive parts of consumer electronics, hardware, and
handsets into a common device industry.
The integrated players will be able to capture a large
share of wallets and budgets, creating a stable revenue
stream with healthy margins. They will focus on
operational excellence and push complexity and risk
backwards in the value chain. Vendors will be dependent
on, and squeezed by, the all-inclusive providers.
Passive regulators, and increased tendencies towards
national industry protection, will result in a more
regionalized world economy. Overall GDP as well as the
TIME industry will experience moderate growth.
Figure 5: Setting of uncertainties of the All-Inclusive scenario
development
Consolidated user
service providers
Fragmented service
provider market
Pure access and
transport networks
functions
connectivity user
service providers
user services
Global economy,
Profound regulatory
All-purpose devices
loosely integrated
with user services
Specialized devices
integrated with
user services
Users want choice
bundled offerings

16
Business models
4.1 Introduction
When we look more deeply into the scenarios a fair
conclusion is that all scenarios will have an impact on
the existing organizations within the TIME industry.
Though each scenario can result in more than one
business model, for each scenario dominant business
models are presented. From these dominant business
models we will derive requirements for organizational
success. The goal is to share views and assist decision
makers in assessing their corporate fitness for any or all
of the possible future scenarios.
In effect the business model framework from Chapter 1 is
used to analyze and present important areas in business
that will play a key role in the future and will enable an
organization to create the highest possible value.
The framework as presented in Chapter 1 is
divided into four areas that translate the strategy
into operational requirements: value proposition,
infrastructure, market, and financials. Along these four
areas we will describe the possible business models
for the scenarios using a business model canvas
(Figure 6).
4.2 Brands and Pipes Business models
The Brands and Pipes scenario is characterized by two
dominant business models that will force a change in
the current TIME ecosystem. Currently a comparable
division is quite common in the industry, namely that
of Service Provider and Network Operator, but various
parties carry out both roles in a rather integrated way.
Due to the split in Brand and Pipe organizations, a clear
distinction is made between the activities of both types
of companies. The brands provide the convenient and
trusted lifestyle packages over the top (mass tailored to
different segments). The pipes provide the access and
transport of bits.
The brand business model gets its shape from the
customer interaction and product market research that
is related to developing the right packages. The pipes
business model on the other hand is driven by the value
proposition supported by the infrastructure: low-cost
access and transport. Each business model has specific
requirements that will allow only a few winners. Brands
companies obviously need a very strong brand and be
highly innovative. Pipes companies need huge network
capacity, extreme standardization and industry scale.
Figure 6: The Business Model Canvas2
Key Partners
Key Activities
Value Propositions
Customer
Relationship
Customer Segments
Key Resources Channels
Cost Structure Revenue Streams
2. A. Osterwalder, www.businessmodelgeneration.com

17
The Brands Business Model (Figure 7)
Value proposition
Brands deliver a convenient and trusted lifestyle (both
end-customers as business) through packages of service
and content. In this scenario users demand a convenient
and trusted lifestyle and business style services in defined
service packages. Users are tired of browsing through all
the choices (and rubbish) online and they will turn to their
brand partners for a comprehensive array of entertaining,
useful, and reliable services. Successful brands will build
trust with their customers and in return, users are willing
to share private data and will be less concerned with
integrity and privacy issues. Users will be loyal to their
brands and will change less often which will result in a
stable market from a user perspective. A large “share of
wallet” and “share of budget” spending on brand services
will generate high business value of online activities.
Market
The customer relationship is very important in this
business model. The success of the brand is dependent
on the match with a specific segment and the degree
in which customer lock-in can be created by leveraging
convenience, brand loyalty and security. The main
activities are focused on creating this match.
Infrastructure
This indicates that the primary activities for these brands
are brand building, market research innovation, so
that customers can bond and services may integrate
with devices or internet specific offerings. A strong
international brand will be the result, which will be the
main asset of this type of company.
The necessary relationships with other players need
to be established especially for innovation purposes.
Relations will be set up with banks, content providers,
retailers, device makers, and software suppliers in
order to create complete service offerings and being
innovative for the right customer segments. This means
that partnerships need to be flexible and dynamic. This
will require a lot from the organization and the way it
deals with trust intellectual property. Organizations will
develop new solutions (intellectual property) together
but they will also change partnerships or develop
multiple partnership when needed. Each organization
will want to secure their own intellectual property. Most
likely some organizations will work with standards for
partnerships in which this is arranged, and they will
enable them to set up partnerships quickly.
Figure 7: The Brands Business Model Canvas
Key Partners
Establish the necessary
relationships (build the
business web) with other
players:
banks
content providers
retailers
device makers
software suppliers
to create complete service
offerings
Key Activities
Brand building
Building and running
service enablers
Integrating services with
devices or internet-specific
offerings
Value Propositions
Convenient and trusted
lifestyle and business style
packages of services and
content
Customer Relationship
Achieve customer lock-in
by leveraging convenience,
brand loyalty and security
Build trust with customers
so users will share private
data
Customer Segments
Specific consumer
segments
Specific enterprise
segments
Key Resources
Strong, international brand
Channels
Services are delivered
over-the-top independent
of network providers
Cost Structure
Marketing innovation
Development of bonus/cost structures, based on succes and gross margin
of innovation
Business administration: insight into all cost elements (activity based
costing)
Revenue Streams
Subscriptions for packages
Pay per use

18
Financials
Customers are billed for subscription for packages
or pay per use of service or content. The revenue
stream depends on the success of creating the match
with the customer. The success of market research
and innovation is the foundation for this match.
Accountability will therefore be closely tied to the gross
margin that is realized with a specific focus on operating
against minimal cost.
The Pipes Business Model (Figure 8)
Value proposition
The services of the brands are delivered over-the-top.
Therefore the core value proposition of the pipes will
be access and transport of information. Companies
with a pipes business model will need to work with
huge network capacity and extreme standardization
in order to realize economies of scale. Pipes will
also deliver services that are best generated close
to the infrastructure, such as latency and bandwidth
guarantees, presence and positioning information.
Infrastructure
Networkmanagement (building, monitoring and
maintenance) will be crucial to the success of ‘pipe’
organizations. Because of the extreme pressure on costs,
investments need to be weighed correctly. Therefore
enterprises need to develop a new way of managing the
infrastructure lifecycle. An important part of infrastructure
lifecycle management is financial portfoliomanagement.
Activity based costing will become more leading in this
type of portfoliomanagement.
As for partnering, working together with brands and
other pipe organizations is essential for the right cost
structure and continuation of the service.
Market
The focus on costs will also be a main driver for
customer care. Straight-through-processing (STP) will
become essential for survival. The channels that are
used for the different customers (consumers, business,
and brands), will be mainly internet channels (salesforce
will probably no longer be used, only at the brands) built
for STP.
Financials
Revenues come from wholesale traffic, access for
customers and data traffic. In this scenario it is not
expected that brands will pay for use of the pipes; two
options are possible:
Pay by customer for use of pipe directly to the pipe-
organization.
Figure 8: The Pipes Business Model Canvas
Key Partners
Brands
Other Pipes players
(interconnection)
Key Activities
Network management
Customer care
Value Propositions
Access and transport of
information
Services that are best
generated close to the
infrastructure, such as
latency and bandwidth
guarantees, presence
information and positioning
Location based services
and real-time anywhere
services
As much as possible
straights through
processing (because of
pressure on costs)
Customer Segments
Consumers
Business customers
Brands
Key Resources
Huge pipes (excess
capacity) and local server
farms
Distributed switching and
routing
Extreme standardization
and industry scale
Channels
Website
Salesforce vs brands
Cost Structure
Extreme pressure on costs
Network management
Business administration: insight into all cost elements (activity based
costing)
Revenue Streams
Wholesale traffic
Access for consumers ans businesses
Data traffic

19
Pay by customer for use of pipe via service of brand.
This could be a fee per month, but more likely the pay
per use will become more common. In that case the
customer relationship is gradually moving towards the
company that is set up in a brands business model. A
good example of this is the way Amazon is currently
billing Kindle for access to the 3G network.
A flexible and transparant cost structure is required which,
as mentioned, can be based on activity based costing.
4.3 User’s Choice Business Models
Users will continue to demand a broad selection of
services to choose from as well as a continuous stream
of new and innovative offerings. At the same time users
will require dedicated and reliable solutions to each of
their essential personal and business needs. Taking
these demands into account, two business models
are defined: the service innovator and the facilitating
operator. In contrast to the previous scenario the
facilitating network operator will have the closest relation
with the customer. Services are delivered over-the-top,
however the trust of the customer is determined by the
reliability of the network.
The Facilitating Operator Business Model (Figure 9)
Value proposition
The main activity will be to provide an intelligent network
operating system that offers strong service enabling and
support functions, such as:
transparency of all data formats;
secure monetary and data transactions;
business and digital rights management support;
personal security;
identities handling (including true single sign on and
authentication among other things).
Customers require dedicated and reliable solutions to
personal and business needs.
Leading network operators will be big players
integrating their mix of core, fixed, mobile, and cable
networks under the valuable interface of the network
operating system (comprehensive wholesalers to a
multitude of service providers). Other operators with
fewer networks will act mainly as second tier partners
(access wholesalers) to the big ones.
Infrastructure
Providers of services over-the-top (separated from the
network) will demand advanced network functionality
(and service support functions) to simplify the
development and delivery of their service offerings. This
means that partnering is a primary activity for these
facilitating network operator companies. They must be
able to quickly set up new partnerships. A standard
interface for partnerships will have to be developed.
Together they will have to create a stable network for
the end-users. Next to that regulators will be active to
ensure fair competition particularly among and between
Figure 9: The Facilitating Operator Business Model Canvas
Key Partners
Service innovators
Key Activities
Extensive collaboration
and data sharing
Value Propositions
Intelligent network
operating system
Secure monetary and data
transactions
Business and digital rights
management support
Personal security and
identifies handling (eg.
true single sign on and
authentication
Loyality
Trust
Integrity (private data)
Customer Segments
Consumers
Business customers
Service innovators
Public sector (eg.
e-Government, health, and
services for elderly)
National security
Key Resources
Huge pipes (excess
farms
routing
Channels
Advertising
Online channels
Cost Structure
Network management
Business administration
Revenue Streams
Advertising
Access for consumers ans businesses
Data traffic

20
network providers. Users will enjoy strong consumer
protection as the integrity and handling of private data
in the network operating system layer will be regulated.
This also means that monitoring and legal functions will
become more important.
Market
The trust of users will be directed towards the
facilitating network operators, un-biased collaboration
communities, and towards selected highly specialized
service providers, rather than broader “department
store” service providers. Users will learn who to
trust and who to ask for advice, and thus will not be
particularly loyal to individual service providers or trust
them with their private data. The increased network
capabilities will open up for two-sided markets, where
the producing and consuming sides are offered very
different values by the network operators.
Financials
Product creation and maintenance will be the main cost
drivers. This will be balanced by revenue streams from
advertising, access for consumers and business to the
intelligent network and data traffic. By tailoring offerings
to service providers, network operators will be able to
capture a larger part of the overall value and at the same
time effectively serve different consumer segments with
a variety of connectivity propositions. Those network
operators, that are in control of the network operating
system, will capture a substantial part of the value
generated in the system and become a “clearing house”
for both service providers and users. Both will get one
bill from the network operator for multiple services.
The Service Innovator Business Model (Figure 10)
Value proposition
Diversified business innovation on a global scale will
provide individualized, tailored and dedicated services to
cater for virtually every possible user need. This will also,
for example, allow for more community- and “altruistic”-
oriented services.
Traditionally packaged services, like TV, will increasingly
be broken up and offered directly from producers and
content owners to consumers. Sports, for instance, will
be less and less sold as general distribution rights and
increasingly as online “tickets to specific packages”
that consumers buy. As a consequence, the business
models and value chain for advertising will continue to
change and adapt to the new conditions.
Market
As a result of the fragmentation “on top”, different forms
of branded portals and other intermediaries (including
affiliated communities and advertising networks) will be
replaced by much more direct relationships between
users and service providers.
Figure 10: The Service Innovator Operator Business Model Canvas
Key Partners
Facilitating network
operators
Customers (user generated
content)
Trends watchers
Key Activities
Market research
Product/server
improvements and
innovation
Facilitation
Value Propositions
User generated content
Innovative services
Pay as you go
E-services
Un-biased collaboraton
communities
Openess freedom
Customer Segments
Early adoptors

Leading enterprises

Many unique customer and
enterprise needs (global)Key Resources
Community intelligence
Social platforms on top of
intelligent network
Channels
Moving from branded
portals towards direct
relationships via online
channels
Cost Structure
Marketing costs
Improvement/innovation costs
Revenue Streams
Subscription for services
Pay per use and pay as you go

21
Infrastructure
Maintaining this direct relationship and facilitating
innovation together with customers is a key activity of
this new service innovator. As for partnerships, these
will primarily be with facilitating network operators and
international regulation driven by facilitating operators.
But also the customers themselves will be seen as
partners for these service operators.
Financials
Users put together their own service package and “pay
as you go” rather than buying a pre-defined package.
By doing this, they will ensure that all services are
tailored to their particular needs and that they are
always using the latest, coolest, and most innovative
services.
4.4 Green Shift Business Model (Figure 11)
The “Green Shift” business model is somewhat
different from the other business models. This model
could be combined with aspects from the other
business models, as it only focuses on specific items
of business development. It does not say anything
regarding the integration or separation of brands and
networks. The green shift will be interwoven in all the
business models that could exist in this scenario along
the following details.
Consumption and business relationship patterns will
change as every value proposition (price) will include
sustainability. Sustainability information and tags on
all commercial goods will be introduced. People,
enterprises, and governments world-wide will demand
green ICT services that will help them maintain and
expand their sustainable lifestyle, business activities and
societal services.
Value proposition
Climate-efficient online services will be delivered by
trusted utility providers using loosely integrated all-
purpose user devices. System Integration and IT
companies addressing enterprise verticals will be best
suited to capture sustainability opportunities in the
business domain. Many users will demand an extended
lifetime of devices, systems, and technologies.
Since users will focus less on physical product
upgrades, the hardware and entertainment market
will move slowly. Instead the focus will be on software
upgradability, products reuse and on extending the
lifetime of existing (legacy) systems and technologies.
Finally, government regulations will require that more
advanced service support functions (e.g. Quality of
Services for telepresence, payment, and security
handling) will be incorporated in the basic infrastructure
offerings to increase the reliability, robustness, and
Figure 11: The Green Shift Business Model Canvas
Key Partners
Public and media partners
Green partners (eg.
datacenters)
Key Activities
Monitoring
Brand building (green
marketing)
Network management
Value Propositions
Green (Brands)
Lifestyle management
Green story telling
Trust
Customer Segments
Green aware customers
Key Resources
Legal department (proof
your green intention)
Monitoring skills
Channels
Energy efficient distribution
via local vendors
Online channels
Cost Structure
Marketing costs
Monitoring/transparancy (eg. activity based CO2
mapping)
Revenue Streams
Sustainability premium/government grants
Prove green value proposition

Raise customer value

22
utility of the networks. This means that also legal and
monitoring activities towards own activities will become
crucial (proof of green intention).
Infrastructure
Actions will aim to reduce energy consumption and
transportation, increase recycling, minimize waste of
scarce resources, increase efficiency, and to encourage
sustainable business and personal behavior. For
example, taxes, pricing, and other regulations will aim
at limiting air travel and electricity consumption, and
mandatory carbon trading schemes as well as individual
sustainability accounting will be introduced. Therefore
network management, maintenance and monitoring
(network providers) will become essential. Green
marketing is most important.
It will become important to show the world/consumers
that the network that is used is Green. This needs
to be proven by being able to give insight into the
network’s sustainability footprint (costs and CO2
mapping) and to be able to steer upon that as well.
This can also be used for marketing purposes (green
brands and green lifestyle).
Operators will be forced to pool their resources (e.g.
network sharing), use renewable energy sources, and to
separate their network business from the service side.
Market
Besides that, channels will have to be Green, no direct
additional requirements are defined specifically in this
scenario.
Financials
Costing will be mainly focused on Marketing,
Transparency (eg. activity based CO2
mapping) and
sustainability investments. Revenues are generated
from sustainability premium/government grants and
customer driven by proven green value proposition, that
will increase customer value.
4.5 All-Inclusive Business Model (Figure 12)
Users will be served by one service provider with one
stop shopping of complete lifestyle and business style
deals. The focus will be on convenience, trust, and
simplicity. The all-inclusive companies will increase entry
barriers for competitors to capitalize on large locked-
in customer bases. Less competition will mean less
innovation and service differentiation. Also, the lack of
viable alternatives will benefit the large players.
Value proposition
In this market offering a complete package (one stop
shopping) and convenience in both purchasing and use
is important to the customer. Trust and single point of
contact must be realized. This is the base for the value
proposition.
With fairly slow innovation and low service
differentiation, cost of ownership, and economies of
scale (operational excellence) will move to the top of the
agenda. To the furthest extent possible players will try
to push complexity, costs, and risks backwards in the
value chain, by means of outsourcing of activities not
considered as core business. In spite of the outsourcing
they will demand services that are tailored to their
specific offerings and operational models.
There will be no major business separation of networks
and services, despite well-defined technology
interfaces. Vertical business integration will be
essential to the operational model, i.e. to capitalize on
comprehensive propositions towards a large locked-in
customer base.
Market
An integrated/all-inclusive offering is made to different
customer segments. Depending on different customer
segments (either on for example costs or lifestyle)
brands are created. In order to realize the service,
partners are very important.
Customers are attracted by a strong brand. The
customer relation will be based on loyalty to be able to
make the right offer for the right segment.

23
Infrastructure
The main activities in this business model are branding
and partnering. Strategic supplier management will be a
key activity. Also enterprise management processes are
critical, like legal, finance, monitoring, etc..
In the “All-Inclusive” scenario large regional players
emerge. A large group of partners is needed to realize
the services of these players. Networks of suppliers
arise, in which the large regional suppliers are very
powerful (powerplay). Overall, vendors of networks,
services and devices will be heavily dependent on the
all-inclusive provider’s business. With larger and fewer
integrated players, vendors must consolidate and build
closer ties with customers in a more predictive and slow
moving market.
It may even be possible that the regional suppliers
themselves will become brokers and outsource all
activities to their suppliers.
Financials
Because cost of ownership is high on the agenda,
flexible costing is required for these large players. As
with the other scenarios activity based costing will be an
important aspect in order to steer on costs.
Apart from this, companies will require large amounts
of money, because of the costs of take-overs (vertical
integration). This room for investment needs to be
created in the cost and investment structure.
Depending on the segment, revenues can be generated
either via subscriptions per package or pay per use.
Figure 12: The All-Inclusive Business Model Canvas
Key Partners
Network of suppliers
(possible all-inclusive
player is broker).
All-Inclusive player in
relation to suppliers
Key Activities
Branding (either on costs
or lifestyle)
Puchasing/partnering
(based on forecast)
Value Propositions
Complete package (one
stop shopping)
Convenience (parchasing
and use)
Trust
Single point of contact
Loyalty
To be able to make the
right offer for that specific
segment
Customer Segments
Specific consumer
segments
Specific enterprise
segments
Key Resources
Huge pipes (excess
farms
routing
Extreme standardization
and industry scale
Channels
Partners
Branded portals
Cost Structure
Market research
Flexible cost structure (activity based costing)
Revenue Streams
Subscription for package
Pay per use (depending on segment)

24
Concluding Remarks
The TIME industry remains dynamic. Looking towards
the future at 2020, the value generators within the
TIME industry will stay as they already are: Content
management, networking, system and access
application management, and customer management.
However, their characteristics are changing with the
ongoing convergence within the TIME industry.
With the aid of the four scenarios and related business
models sketched in this paper, companies will be able
to get grip on the most important developments in their
business. The four defined scenarios are each very
different and require fundamentally different choices and
investments. Each scenario will raise important strategic
questions for TIME companies, and will also help them
to prepare for different future developments. Uncertain
factors such as user preferences and the degree of
market fragmentation in the service provider market will
require companies to make choices.
Most likely you will find that quite some effort is required
in order to make the jump, as the different scenarios
show that in this rapidly changing market, in ten years
time everything is still possible. Different economic
markets could each lead to different scenarios, which
can evolve in international or continental distinction
in business. Even hybrid variants can arise due to
customer orientation.
It is clear that, although the course of the future is still
open, there are some actions companies can take
in order to prepare for the future. On one hand we
have concluded, that the four scenarios are each very
different. On the other hand, the business models show
a number of similarities. These similarities result, next
to the likely truths, in so-called no-regret strategies for
TIME companies:
Implement activity based costing; activity based
costing will become more and more important. Insight
into all aspects of the organization and running the
business is crucial to survival.
Transform Network Management; focus on
scale in Network Operations and embrace the IT
transformation and put Network/IT at the heart of the
company.
Build up partnership skills; partnership is key,
especially in the User’s Choice scenario, distinctive
partnership capability will mark the rise or fall of TIME
companies.
Enhanced trust and reputation: creating trust is
another returning aspect, either with customer or
partners. This is something that is not common
practice in most companies and will need to be
developed.
In this reconnaissance of the 2020 TIME industry it is
not the intention to answer the question which business
model suits your company best. Companies have to
develop detailed strategies and tactics to cope with
these possible futures.
To retrieve maximum value from this paper, TIME
companies may challenge their strategy against the
presented scenarios. The no-regret strategies, to start
with, can be used to determine if your organization is fit
for the future. Strategic discussions can be started with
the staff to see how future proof the business model is.
Ericsson and Atos Consulting are able to support you in
facilitating such a process, as well as in translating the
rather abstract scenarios and business models to your
specific business challenges.

25
About the authors
Patrick Blankers, Manager Strategy Regulatory Affairs
at Ericsson, started his career at KPN Research, after
finalizing his MSc degree at Eindhoven University, in
1988. As a research engineer, Patrick has been involved
in various European projects and in international
standardization activities. In 1995, he joined Ericsson
in the Netherlands, as a technical consultant. During
his carreer at Ericsson, Patrick has been involved in
many commercial and strategic projects. During the
past two years, Patrick has organized several customer
workshops about Vision 2020. His current responsibility
is head of strategy and regulatory affairs. In addition,
Patrick is also a part-time teacher at the Hague
University, specialized in telecommunication training
programs.
Pieter Lugtigheid MA Bc, Principal Consultant at
Atos Consulting, is a management consultant since
1997 when he started at Panfox Consulting. In 2001
Pieter joined KPMG Management Consulting and
subsequently Atos Consulting in 2004. Within Atos
Consulting he worked as Director Global Consulting
Telecom and Media in 2008. Pieter is currently
responsible for sales and delivery of business and
operational transformation engagements with a clear
focus on “making strategy happen”. Translation and
implementation of strategy into clear business models,
governance, business processes with a customer,
operational, and quality focus. Within Atos Origin
International he holds the position of Global Portfolio
Manager for the agile enterprise solution. Pieter is
also Lecturer and Master Thesis coach at the Vrije
Universiteit Amsterdam (Strategy, Organization, and
Consultancy).
Agnes Kroes MSc is Executive Business Consultant at
Atos Consulting. In 2004 Agnes joined Atos Consulting
and she has over five years of experience in the telecom
industry. In her work Agnes focusses on advisory and
she is a projectmanager in business and operational
transformation engagements, in which translation and
implementation of strategy into clear business models,
governance, business processes with a customer,
operational, and quality focus is executed.
Ashwin Sardjoe MSc, MBA is Executive Business
Consultant at Atos Consulting and has thirteen years of
experience within the telecom industry. His interest and
work focus on aligning telecom business strategy with
IT technology strategy and solutions. Ashwin is engaged
in both advisory and project management roles,
continuously bridging the business-IT gap by fostering
mutual understanding and facilitating teamwork.
The authors would like to thank Ard-Pieter de Man,
Philip van Kappen, and Ramon Hollands for their
contribution.

26
About Atos Consulting
Atos Consulting is a leading international business
and IT consultancy organisation that employs over
2,500 driven professional across the globe. Atos
Consulting is the partner for customers looking for
effective solutions in the field of returns, organisation,
processes and control. It provides in-depth knowledge
of sector-specific primary processes and secondary
processes such as Finance, HRM and IT. If required,
Atos Consulting also provides interim management or
takes over processes. Atos Consulting is independent,
provides expert advice and works closely together for
and with customers.
Atos Consulting is an independent part of Atos Origin,
the largest listed European IT service provider (turnover
of over 5.1 billion euros), employing over 49,000 people.
Atos Origin enables its customers – Top 500 businesses
– to transform their vision into results through strategic
consulting, systems integration and managed
operations. Atos Origin is the Worldwide Information
Technology Partner for the Olympic Games and has a
client base of international blue-chip companies across
all sectors. Atos Origin is listed on the Paris Eurolist
Market and trades as Atos Origin, Atos Worldline and
Atos Consulting.
About Ericsson
Ericsson is the world’s leading provider of technology
and services to telecom operators. Ericsson is the
leader in 2G, 3G and 4G mobile technologies, and
provides support for networks with over 2 billion
subscribers and has the leading position in managed
services. The company’s portfolio comprises mobile and
fixed network infrastructure, telecom services, software,
broadband and multimedia solutions for operators,
enterprises and the media industry. The Sony Ericsson
and ST-Ericsson joint ventures provide consumers with
feature-rich personal mobile devices.
Scenario development has been a core activity of the
company’s strategy process. In 2007, Ericsson started
a large-scale exercise to develop “Vision2020”, which
also resulted in the four scenarios as described in this
publication.
Ericsson is advancing its vision of being the “prime
driver in an all-communicating world” through
innovation, technology, and sustainable business
solutions. Working in 175 countries, more than 80,000
employees generated revenue of SEK 206.5 billion
(USD 27.1 billion) in 2009. Founded in 1876 with the
headquarters in Stockholm, Sweden, Ericsson is listed
on OMX NASDAQ, Stockholm and NASDAQ New York.
about the companies

Ericsson Telecommunicatie BV
PO Box 8
5120 AA Rijen
The Netherlands
Tel: +31 (0)161 24 9911
marketing.nl@ericsson.com
www.ericsson.com
Atos Consulting
Papendorpseweg 93
3528 BJ Utrecht
The Netherlands
Tel: +31 (0)88 265 8888
info.consulting@atosorigin.com
www.atosconsulting.nl
Atos, Atos and fish symbol, Atos Origin and fish symbol,
Atos Consulting, and the fish itself are registered
trademarks of Atos Origin SA. October 2010
© 2010 Atos Origin

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