My presentation at MeasureCamp Helsinki. In today's digital world, it is essential for businesses to understand the impact of online marketing on their overall marketing mix. Explore the techniques and strategies that can help you optimize your digital marketing efforts. Best practices and insights that will enable you to take your online marketing to the next level.

1. www.mertanen.info

2. Online Marketing Mix Modelling
25.3.2023 @mertanen

3. Petri ‘Pete’ Mertanen
• Speaker, analytics coach & consultant
• BBA, Specialist Qualification in Management
• (Digital) Analytics experience since 2005
• Lecturer at Aalto University and Laurea University
of Applied Sciences
• Presentations at SlideShare
• Certifications for Analytics and Data Science:
• Elements of AI
• Cookie Consent Expert
• Statistical thinking for Data Science & Analytics
• Google Analytics Individual Qualification,
Google Tag Manager Fundamentals,
Introduction to Data Studio

4. €
€
Advertising Website
Tags
for
advertising
Consent
management
Second visit
Third visit &
transaction
Conversion
First visit
Ecommerce

5. Different kind of analysis methods
● Descriptive analysis
○ Answering mostly to question “what happened”?
○ Mostly with aggregated data, doesn’t include necessary any recommendations
○ May concentrate only on last click conversions
○ Heuristic analysis as a method - which you can always challenge!
● Mathematical / statistical modelling
○ (Data driven) attribution models and conversion optimization (testing)
○ May include predictive analysis (in GA4: visitors who are likely to buy, anomaly detection)
○ Different kind of regression analysis, usually used as basis in Marketing Mix Modelling (MMM)
○ Causal inference analysis

7. Attribution models
• Last click - so last season
• Fist click
• Linear
• Time decay
• Position based
• Data driven

8. What is wrong with
attribution models?

9. Attribution is incomplete
because of
• Individual tracking won’t work
• No consent = no tracking
• All browsers aren’t accepting cookies
• Incognito, ad blockers, ad fraud…
• User biased
• Platform biased
• Walled gardens

10. €
€
Advertising Website
Online Marketing
Mix Modelling
Ecommerce

11. The linear regression model explained
• Dependent variable y = we are trying to explain, e.g. ecommerce sales
• Explanatory variables, for example:
• Advertising spend (in different channels)
• Discounts or seasonality
• External factors, like weather, COVID-19 etc.
• β1 is the intercept term (constant) = it’s important to know baseline sales
• βk is the slope coefficient of variable xk (marginal effect on sales)

12. Supermetrics for BigQuery
Marketing Data
Warehouse
Marketing Data Warehouse in BigQuery: https://youtu.be/05EBF7P9uHo?t=1559

13. Real life example: dataset ready for modelling

14. Online Marketing Mix Modelling
• Privacy friendly - no cookies!
• Data from all ad networks in one platform
• Outcomes from the back-end
• Fast and cheap to implement
• Data science in place
• Know what is your base sales!
• Find the real incremental value of advertising!
• See saturation points per channel
• Optimize / make scenarios for your ad mix
• Predict the outcome (sales / conversions)

15. How to do (online) MMM?
• With your own data scientist (or team)
• External consultant
• With BigML.com or other platform
• External platform vendor
• Our partner in crime is Sellforte

17. No one can be told what the MMM is.
You have to see it for yourself.

18. Questions & Answers
25.3.2023 @mertanen

19. www.mertanen.info
Mertanen Analytics Oy
petri@mertanen.info
Puh. 0400 792 616
Petri Mertanen
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petrimertanen/
https://twitter.com/mertanen