Week 3Rational and Expressive Choice Rational Choice The.docx

Week 3
Rational and Expressive Choice
Rational Choice Theory and the Rational Voter Model (P =
B > C; or Participation or voter choice (P) = perceived benefits
of participation or choice (B) > perceived costs of participation
or choice (C)) became popular in the 1970s. Pursuant to this
theory and model, voters decide whether to vote and which
candidate to vote for on some rational basis, usually on the
basis of which action gives them greater expected benefits. The
model lends itself more than others to predicting what effects
changes in external conditions will have on the vote. A major
contribution of the model was to emphasize the role of issues in
voter choice.
The paradox of participation calls into question this
theoretical perspective. The paradox theorizes that the rational
individual will not waste resources by bearing the costs of
taking part in the voting process but will instead take a free ride
on the efforts of others. This is known as the free rider
problem. The problem is especially acute when the individual
does not perceive their vote as being decisive to the election
outcome.
Some have used rational choice theory to argue that those
in a high socio-economic class would be less active “because
they have the education and intellectual sophistication to
comprehend the free-rider problem and because their high
salaries raise the opportunity cost of participation” (Verba
1995, 284). The facts however suggest this hypothesis is false.
In fact, strong empirical evidence demonstrates that those in a
high socio-economic class are actually the most likely to be
active.
Other rational choice proponents, including Anthony
Downs, have argued that lower information and transaction

costs for the well educated imply that it is actually easier for
them to participate in politics. Verba (1995) notes “[t]his
approach has the virtue of fitting the facts but seems somewhat
post hoc” (284).
Overall, rational choice theory must be praised for its
theoretical elegance. But, the theory has done a poor job of
predicting political participation. More specifically, the theory
has failed to predict how much political activity and who will
take part.
Some have argued that expressive choice theory can
provide a more compelling explanation of voter behavior.
According to Schuessler in A Logic of Expressive Choice
(2000), individuals do not necessarily participate in collective
action in order to produce outcomes but instead often do so in
order to express who they are by attaching themselves to such
outcomes.
Because under Schuessler’s perspective the value of
participation emerges not from the outcome but from the
process of participation itself, the free-rider problem is no
longer a concern. Participation therefore is not a form of
investment but rather a form of consumption. Schuessler wrote,
“Consumption benefits are inextricably tied to expression: the
sports fan’s expression of team support is required for him to
enjoy his participation. Similarly, participation in politics,
under a consumption-benefit regime, is inextricably tied to the
expression of partnership, or the expression of preference
toward one of the candidates” (46) (emphasis in original). So
while participation was often seen as a cost under the rational
choice perspectives, expressive choice theorists see
participation as a huge benefit logically driving the individual
voter when making voting choices.
Mobilization
Mobilization is the process by which candidates, parties,
activists and groups induce other people to participate. Two
types of mobilization: (1) Directly – leaders mobilize people
directly when they contact citizens personally and encourage

them to take action and (2) Indirectly – leaders mobilize people
indirectly when they contact citizens through mutual associates
(family, friends, neighbors or colleagues).
Political leaders do not try to mobilize everyone, and not all the
time. For maximum effect, they target their efforts on
particular people, and they time them for particular occasions.
When targeting, political leaders are (1) more likely to mobilize
people they already know; (2) more likely to mobilize people
who are centrally positioned in social networks; (3) more likely
to mobilize people whose actions are most effective at
producing political outcomes; and (4) more likely to mobilize
people who are likely to respond by participating. Thus,
political leaders are more likely to mobilize (1) people who are
employed, especially in large workplaces; (2) people who
belong to associations; (3) leaders of organizations, businesses
and local government; and (4) the wealthy, educated and
partisan. Timing becomes critical when we consider that (1)
people participate more when salient issues top the agenda; (2)
people participate more when other concerns do not demand
their attentions; (3) people participate more when important
decisions are pending; (4) people participate when outcomes
hang in the balance; and (5) people participate more when
issues come before legislatures rather than before bureaucracies
and courts.
Social Capital
Social capital is the features of social life – networks,
norms and trust – that enable participants to act together more
effectively to pursue shared objectives. Putnam (2000) in his
famous work Bowling Alone advances a theory of social capital
that presumes that generally speaking the more we connect with
others the more we trust them. Social trust and civic
engagement are strongly correlated. Significantly, education is
the strongest correlate of civic engagement. However education
has increased with time but yet, civic engagement has declined.
Putnam (2000) examined a number of potential factors to
explain the decline in social capital, social trust and civic

engagement. These factors included pressure of time and
money; mobilization and suburbanization; the changing role of
woman; marriage and family; the rise of the welfare state; the
race and civil rights revolutions; age; and television. Putnam
concluded that television and generational effects are the most
likely culprits to explain the decline.
Life-cycle effects are differences attributable to a stage of life.
Period effects affect all people who live in a given era. With
generational effects individuals do not change, but society does;
like life cycle effects, generational effects show up as
disparities among age groups at a single point in time, but like
period effects they produce real social change.
Citizen Engagement
Scholars debate whether the general decline in civic
participation since the 1960s represents a disengagement from
political activity, including voting. Niemi et al. (2010) note
that academics have become concerned about the decline in
voter turnout and other forms of political participation. Signs
of disengagement appeared in the 1960s, and at a time when
trust in the American government lessened. Disengagement was
also observed in other nations (2010).
Moreover, political knowledge also appears to be
declining. The quality of news coverage has worsened. The
development of many specialized cable channels and web sites
gives individuals the ability to either fully pay attention to
politics or avoid it entirely. It is expected that these
developments will widen the knowledge gaps between those
who regularly follow political news and those who merely use
new technology for entertainment (Niemi et al. 2010).
As noted above, Putnam concluded that the observed
decline was “generational in nature” (Niemi et al. 2010, 23).
For example, it was observed that the decline in participation
and political knowledge is especially acute in young people
(2010).
Niemi et al. (2010) also acknowledge that other academics
see disengagement as a myth. These scholars agree that cable

channels and the internet are replacing network television as the
primary news source. But, they also argue a change in values
has occurred, which young people were eager to adopt. Prior to
the 1960s, the World War II generation placed an emphasis on
civic duty. Later generations focused instead on engagement,
which emphasizes individual autonomy and non-electoral
behavior such as community service and directly helping others
(2010). “These changes in modes of communication, news
dissemination, and values have naturally caused changes in
some kinds of political behavior” (2010, 30).
Niemi et al. (2010) also make an important point about the
difference in calculating voter turnout. Historically, the base
was calculated using the VAP (voting age population). Since
the 1970s, however, many individuals in the voting age
population have become ineligible to vote, including large
numbers of legal or illegal non-citizens and felons or ex-felons
who were denied the voting franchise by state laws. A more
accurate measure appears to be the VEP (voting eligible
population), which actually shows that after 1972, the decline in
voting turnout was much smaller than previously observed
(2010). A challenge with using the VEP, however, is that each
state’s laws must be taken into account so as to capture the most
accurate picture of the voting eligible population.
Putnam (2000) acknowledged that it was too early to tell
the true impact of the internet on social capital and citizen
engagement. Even if we accepted the arguments from the
academics that believe disengagement is a myth, the quality of
the experience is ultimately very important to political
participation. The time spent viewing cable channel news and
web sites is increasingly becoming an individual activity. This
contemporary experience contrasts with the pre-1960s
experience of families listening to the radio together and
individuals enjoying face-to-face bridge games where they
would discuss the issues of the day collectively (2000). As
Putnam (2000) states, “More and more of our time and money
are spent on goods and services consumed individually, rather

than those consumed collectively” (245).
Civic engagement is subject to criticism. Some scholars
have argued: (1) the lack of involvement may signal widespread
satisfaction with the status quo rather than a crisis of
democracy; (2) participation sparks feelings of powerlessness
and frustration; (3) citizen participation may encourage unwise
decisions (due to lack of expertise); and (4) highly engaged
majorities may repress minorities and produce other injustices.
In response, others have argued: (1) there has never been non-
self-interested elites who could be trusted to advance the
common good; (2) those who are active do a poor job of
representing the interests of the inactive; (3) through
institutional design, it may be possible to reconcile tensions
between just and good government and enhanced participation;
(4) civic debate is the best way to discern the truth; and (5)
higher turnouts produce electorates less dominated by extremes.
Regardless of one’s position with respect to civic
engagement, most agree political participation in the United
States is dangerously low. I do not argue that extremely high
rates of participation must be achieved, but when government
legitimacy is perceived as low and indifference to government
and collective life too common, then increased engagement is
needed. We must remember that the amount, quality and
distribution of political and civic engagement are mostly the
product of our political choices.
Youth Participation
Regardless of whether youth participate as much as older
individuals, the nature of their participation is clearly different.
Instead of traditional political activity such as working for a
campaign and voting, youth are engaging in activities such as
boycotting and protesting (Niemi et al. 2010). However the
quality of these political activities may not yield the same
benefit to the newer generations that more traditional political
activity had for previous generations.
Verba et al.’s work only deepens the concern. Verba et al.
(1995) argue that resources such as time, money and skills are

required for political participation. The origins of such
resources were traced back to the involvement of individuals in
major social institutions such as the family, school, workplace,
voluntary associations and religious institutions (1995).
“Socially structured circumstances and the constrained choices
affect the stockpile of time, money and civic skills available for
politics” (271). If individuals choose to engage in activities
either alone or in non-traditional organizations and groups, then
they may not have the same quality of access to the resources
that are necessary for effective political engagement.
Newer generations may prefer to engage in contemporary
forms of non-electoral political activity, choosing not to vote.
But, evidence exists that government rewards those who vote
(Griffin and Newman 2005). Elections can be “successful in
refocusing public officials’ attention to the electorate’s desires”
(Bennett and Resnick 1990, 800).
If decline in voting continues, even prolonged slight
declines using a VEP measure, a shift in the voting model may
be warranted so as to better fit this important democratic
activity to the non-traditional paradigm embraced by newer
generations. Compulsory voting or voting via a secure internet
platform or a platform provided by another technology may
eventually be an essential change (Niemi et al. 2010).
Additional research on the quality of contemporary participation
may help inform our electoral policy options.
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Week 2
Progressive Era Reforms
The Progressive Era (1890 – 1913) was a period of United
States (US) history that sought to curb many of the excesses of

the patronage period, including the institution of major
government reforms such as civil service. Progressives wanted
to clean up government, use government to advance human
welfare and apply scientific management theories to
government.
Famously, during this era (1906), Upton Sinclair wrote
The Jungle chronicling abuses in the meat packing industry,
which led President Theodore Roosevelt to press Congress to
pass laws regulating the meat industry. In addition,
Progressives had many other successes: They attacked voting
allegiances between US Senators and the railroad industry;
introduced the direct primary (to avoid party conventions);
obtained more equitable taxes; obtained regulation of railroad
rates; secured the passage of the
Sherman Anti-Trust Act; and secured the passage of the Pure
Food and Drug Law.
Progressives were also successful at introducing the
Australian ballot, which was a secret ballot printed by the state.
Previously, parties had made the ballots and there were charges
of invasion of privacy and multiple voting. For those opposed
to machine politics, the democratic virtues of secret balloting
seemed obvious. But, the reform had the unintended
consequence of becoming an obstacle to voting for many
illiterate foreign-born voters in the North and uneducated
African-Americans in the South. In some states, this problem
was remedied by having illiterate voters assisted or by attaching
party emblems next to the names of candidates.
The situation in Southern states, however, deteriorated for
African-Americans during this era. The year 1890 marked the
beginning of efforts by southern states to disenfranchise
African-American voters. Faced with recurring electoral
challenges, annoying expense of buying votes and epidemics of
fraud and violence, Southern Democrats chose to solidify their
hold over the region by amending the state voting laws so as to
exclude African-Americans without overtly violating the
Fifteenth Amendment.

Mississippi led the way by imposing a stricter residency
requirement, a two-dollar poll tax and a literacy test that
required voters to demonstrate that they understood the
Constitution. Other southern states soon followed by including
some combination of these requirements, and eventually
Democratic primaries were restricted to only white voters.
Laws were also adopted to disenfranchise men convicted of
minor offenses, such as vagrancy and bigamy: The goal was to
keep poor and illiterate minorities (in Texas this included
Mexican Americans) from the polls. Importantly, local election
officials were given a great deal of discretion in implementing
the requirements, which often worked to the benefit of
“gentlemen” whites but was harmful to the poor and for
minorities.
Sadly, these state laws worked. In Mississippi after 1890,
less than 9,000 out of 147,000 voting-age African-Americans
were registered to vote. In Louisiana, where more than 130,000
African-Americans were registered in 1896, as little as 1,342
were registered by 1904. Consequently, the African-American
population remained disenfranchised until the 1960s, electoral
participation was low and one-party rule by Southern Democrats
dominated southern politics.
Vote Determinants
What determines the choice a voter will select on election
day is an important question asked by many political scientists.
The most widely accepted view of what drives vote choice is
party identification. Campbell et al. (1960), in their famous
work titled The American Voter, note that “partisan preferences
show great stability between elections.” The strength and
direction of party identification are of central importance in
explaining political attitudes and behaviors (such as voting).
Campbell et al., however, caution that party identification does
not fully explain vote choice, stating “party identification could
not account for all aspects of the image formed by the public of
the elements of national politics; but it gives to this image a
central partisan coherence.” Thus, other facts likely also

influence vote choice albeit to a minor extent than party
identification, and I suggest that such factors may vary for
individuals depending on the nature of any given election.
Niemi and Weisberg draw our attention to many other
factors that can partly explain vote choice. These include the
role of incumbency, media influence, the state of the economy
and group attachments.
Achen and Bartels (2004) present a creative argument that
natural disasters, including drought, flu and shark attacks, also
can influence voter choice. The 1916 New Jersey example,
involving shark attacks, clearly included an economic harm
component. Query whether the true driver of vote choice is the
voters’ assessment that the political leaders should have done
more to avoid the damage or is it the damage itself and the
economic consequences that follow from the damage. Achen
and Bartels suggest that a community’s pain and pleasure are
key determinants regardless of how much influence the
incumbent really has over the disaster.
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Week 1
In recent times, not many Americans bother to turnout at the
polls. Voter turnout in Presidential elections is typically less
than half of the potential voters. In mid-term elections (non-
Presidential elections), turnout is even lower. Some fear these
numbers reflect a serious problem for American democracy,
which depends on citizen participation. Others are less
concerned arguing that the numbers mean that things are going
well in the country; if it was not going well more people would
be motivated to have their voice heard through voting.
Solving the mystery of the cause of the decline in participation
and understanding its true impact on American democracy are

important issues for political science to address. To help us
understand these issues, it is helpful to review them in their
historical context, improving our understanding of electoral
rules and other factors that influence voting.
Early US Elections and Voting Rules
In America’s early days, a decade before the founding
fathers
arrived in Philadelphia to consider the adoption of the US
Constitution, the colonies had written their own suffrage laws.
These colonial laws were based on colonial precedents and
English thought, which restricted voting to adult men who
owned property. Both in England and the colonies, property
requirements to vote were justified using two arguments: (1)
men who owned property had a unique stake in society and had
a personal interest in the activities of the state, especially
taxation and (2) property owners had sufficient independence,
free from dependence on others, giving them a voice free of
control or manipulation.
Such concerns also promoted colonial governments to
adopt residency and citizenship requirements. Women were
also barred from voting because they were considered dependent
on males and because their “nature” made them unfit to engage
in politics.
It is unclear how many individuals actually voted during
colonial times. It is most likely that voting percentages varied
by locality. There probably were some communities with 70 or
80 percent enfranchisement of white male landowners. While
other locales, such as coastal towns, cities and frontier
settlements, probably were closer to 40 or 50 percent.
The American Revolution, and its calls for greater equality
among men and the expansion of freedom, fostered tensions
with existing colonial electoral rules. Voting was increasingly
being viewed as a right, even a natural right by some. The view

was supported with republican theory and notions of the social
contract that considered government legitimacy as requiring,
what John Locke termed, the consent of the governed.
An important expansion of the voting franchise occurred in
Pennsylvania during the first few months of the Revolution.
With the support of prominent reformers such as Ben Franklin
and Thomas Paine, and allied with western Pennsylvania
farmers who had long been under represented in the colonial
government, adopted a new constitution that abolished property
requirements and enfranchised all taxpaying adult males and the
sons of non-taxpaying freeholders. Since Pennsylvania had a
“head tax,” which required each citizen to pay tax, the new state
constitution greatly expanded the franchise.
A year later, Vermont went even further and adopted a
state constitution that removed the franchise from any
connection to property or taxpaying. Any adult male who took
an oath could vote.
Under the Articles of Confederation, the states had
complete control over voting. But the US Constitution pierced
this exclusivity by linking state suffrage rules and the right to
vote in national elections by mandating that those who
participated in elections for the “most numerous Branch of the
state legislature” were automatically entitled to vote for
members of the US House of Representatives. At the
Constitutional Convention, some founding fathers advocated for
national suffrage requirements, but after some debate the
delegates chose to avoid additional reference to voting rights
more for practical reasons than ideology. The delegates wished
to avoid jeopardizing ratification as a national suffrage
requirement was likely to generate opposition by state
governments. Madison expressed the point in the Federalist
Papers, “One uniform rule would probably have been as
dissatisfactory to some of the States as it would have been
difficult to the convention.”
The decision to forgo a national suffrage requirement was
a significant compromise, one of many major compromises.

But, the compromise would have significance for the future.
While the Constitution was adopted in the name of “We the
People,” the states retained the power to define the “people.” In
other words, citizenship in the new nation, which was controlled
by the federal government, was separated from the right to vote.
In the 1830s, voter registration became increasingly
popular, especially among Whigs who feared ineligible
transients and foreigners were supporting the Democratic Party.
In fact, increasing immigration fueled greater interest in
requiring voters to register. Although most supporters of
registration laws argued they were necessary to prevent fraud,
opponents insisted the real intent was to reduce participation by
the poor.
In 1985, the Fifteenth Amendment was ratified. The
amendment provided that the right of citizens of the United
States to vote shall not be denied on account of race, color, or
previous condition of servitude. After 1865, however, the
intensity of the conflict over the right to vote increased. In the
South, the abolition of slavery created a new class of potential
voters – former slaves. Radical Republicans believed that
freedom was illusory without political rights, including the
right to vote. So during reconstruction, former slaves were
enfranchised. During reconstruction, southern African-
Americans were elected to office, and they supported public
policies that promoted education and economic welfare for
former slaves. These changes were rapid and caused Southern
white leaders to fear a loss of control if their region’s African-
American population remained enfranchised.
Also, in 1866, the moderate majority of Republicans in
Congress secured the passage of the Fourteenth Amendment to
the US Constitution. The amendment created a national
definition of citizenship and confirmed that former slaves were
citizens. The amendment also prohibited states from passing
laws that would “abridge the privileges or immunities” of
citizens or deny them “the equal protection of the laws.”
This time was also part of an era known as the patronage

period. It was a time when political machines, led by party
bosses, dominated. Many political machines were well
developed in the cities and served to increase the political
power of immigrants. These machines, however, were often
accused of corruption and only selectively helping certain
immigrant groups at the expense of others.
Between 1870 and 1890, many states contracted the right
to vote rolling back many of the gains that were achieved
earlier. During this period, two significant contractions in the
right to vote were made: (1) the disenfranchisement of Southern
African-Americans; and (2) the loss of political rights for
working class immigrant men in the North and West.
Does Voting Matter?
Elections serve many purposes. Elections give the
government legitimacy so citizens will obey the laws (consent
of the governed). Elections also solve the problem of
succession without violence: Prior to the use of elections,
contests for political power frequently involved physical
violence or war. Elections also provide a means of
accountability: Political leaders are held to account for their
policies. For these reasons, elections are important.
Elections can also have bad effects. For example, in the
United States representatives in the House only have two-year
terms that require almost constant campaigning (this is known
as short planning time for an election). Also, elections may
legitimize policies that are bad for the public. For example, in
New Hampshire, voters elected a state representative who did
not like police officers.
Liphart, in Unequal Participation: Democracy’s
Unresolved Dilemma, argued democratic responsiveness
depends upon citizen participation. For some, a “moral
obligation to vote” exists such that it is every citizen’s duty to
vote.
Liphart also noted that inequality of representation and
influence are biased in favor of the more privileged citizens –
those with higher incomes, education and wealth. Similarly,

Rosenstone et al. (1993) found that in the United States the
smaller the number of participants in political activity, the
greater the inequality in participation.
Other empirical studies have found that socioeconomic
status and voting were positively linked. Tingsten (1937) found
the general rule was “voting frequency rises with social
standard.” The data clearly shows that the obvious way to
reduce the inequality in voting is to increase voter turnout.
Simply put, low voter turnout means unequal and
socioeconomically biased turnout. Lipset nicely summed up the
conclusion by stating that elections are “the expression of the
democratic class struggle.”
Verba et al. (1995) in their important work titled Voice
and Equality make an important observation: While
policymakers are not necessarily equally sensitive to all
constituents, they are sensitive to citizen inputs. Having a great
concern for either their own re-election or the maintenance of
power for their political party, political leaders are more
responsive to voters than to those involved in other political
activities such as boycotting, protesting or letter writing. For
these reasons, we can be confident that voting matters.
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Blind Retrospection
Electoral Responses to Drought, Flu, and Shark Attacks
Christopher H. Achen
Deparlment of Politics,
Princeton University
;-' :;t i;''';
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Larry M. Bartels
Department of Politics and
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.
Princeton University
r ;iti'ii;i' i ti l: J;t' ji,ir ",)t{i Jr' i i.,itl
Revised: 27 January 2004
Abstract
Students of democratic politics have long believed that voters
punish incumbents for hard times.
Governments bear the responsibility for the economy in the
modern era, so that replacing incompetent
managers with capable alternatives appears to be a well-
informed, rational act. However, this vision of
a sophisticated retrospective electorate does not bear close

examination. We llnd that voters regularly
punish governments for acts of God. including droughts, floods,
and shark attacks. As long as
responsibility for the event itself (or more commonly, for its
amelioration) can somehow be attributed
to the government in a story persuasive within the folk culture,
the electorate will take out its
frustrations on the incumbents and vote for out-parties. Thus,
voters in pain are not necessarily
irrational. but they are ignorant about both science and politics,
and that makes them gullible when
ambitious demagogues seek to profit from their misery. Neither
conventional understandings of
democratic responsiveness nor rational choice interpretations of
retrospective voting survive under this
interpretation of voting behavior.
Blind Retrospection
Electoral Responses to Drought, Flu, and Shark Attacksr
And Moses stretched forth his rod over the land of Egypt, and
the Lord brought an east
wind upon the land all that day. and all that night; and when it
was morning. the east wind

brought the locusts. And the locusts went up over all the land of
Egypt, and rested in all the
coasts of Egypt: very grievous were they; befbre them there
were no such locusts as they,
neither after thern shall be such. For they covered the face of
the whole earth, so that the land
was darkened;and they did eat every herb of the land, and allthe
fruit of the trees which the
hail had left: and there remained not any green thing irT the
trees. or in the herbs of the field,
thror-rgh all the land of Egypt.
Then Pharaoh called for Moses and Aaron in haste; and he said,
I have sinned against the
Lord l orrr God. and against you.
-Exodus
10: 13- l6 (King James version)
When collective misfoftune strikes a society, somebody has to
take the blame. For ancient Israel,
disasters were God's punishment lbr sin-perhaps the ruler's sin,
perhaps Israel's. Theology did not
single out the guilty pafiy, but it structured the search and set
limits on what counted as a credible
explanation.

1 Earlier versions of this repoft were presented at the 2002
Annual Meeting of the Arnerican Political Science
Association and in seminars atthe Juan March Institute, the
University of Michigan's Centerfbr Political
Studies, and Princeton University's Center for the Study of
Democratic Politics. We are grateful to various
colleagues and friends for helpfLrl discussions and comments;
to Jonathan Ladd for organizing data; to Helene
Wood fbr graphical assistance;to Sasha Achen, Bryan Jones,
John Londregan. Arlene Saxonhouse. W. phillips
Shively, John Wilkerson, and Natasha Zharinova for pointing us
to examples and references; and to John
Blydenburgh and David Mayhew fbr help with New Jersey
political history. Achen also expresses his thalks to
the Center fbr the Study of Democratic Politics. Princeton
University, and to the Department of Political
- Science, University of Michigan, for their financial sr-rpport
of a fellowship year.
In the theology of classical Egypt, pharaohs were divine beings
responsible for making the Nile
flood annually. When it failed to do so, as happened repeatedly
in the famines and political disorder of

the First Intermediate Period (ca. 2200 BCE), some scholars
believe that the pharaoh's reign was
shortened, and perhaps his life as well (Bell 1971; Hassan
1994).
Through the centuries, competitors of the ruler have been well
aware that disaster presents them
with an opporlunity. When disasters take on catastrophic
dimensions. not just the ruler but the entire
regime can come under suspicion. Writing of the Black Death in
the 14th century, which may have
killed a third or more of the European population, Herlihy
(1997.64) remarks:
The plague also discredited the leaders of society, its governors,
priests, and intellectuals, and the
laws and theories supporled by them. These elites were
obviously failing in their prime social
function, the def-ense of the common welfare. in the name of
which they enjoyed their privileges.
During the plague years, spontaneous religious and political
movements arose to threaten church
and government. A few of these bands agitated against the
groaning inequities of medieval society.
Most were less attractive. Some, fired by conspiracy theories,
targeted disliked minorities such as

beggars and Jews. Across Europe. thousands of Jews were
murdered befbre the traditional spiritual
and secular authorities managed to halt the fury of the mobs
(Herlihy 1997,66).
Contemporary democratic rulers have little aura of divinity
about them, nor have they faced
Biblical famines or medieval plagues. Nonetheless, the citizenry
continues to hold them responsible
for routine hardships and misfbrtune when election time comes.
In this paper we examine electoral
responses to natural disasters that are clearly beyond the control
of incumbent politicians. We find that
voters regularly punish incumbent governments for such events.
as long as they can find some
psychologically appealing connection-whether plausible or not-
between the disaster and the
government.
fsection on "pocketbook voting!!-v61g1s punishing the
incumbents for hard economic times-
omitted herel
Shark Attacks in New Jersey, 1916: The voters Bite Back
On the four-day Fourth of July weekend in 1916, the beaches of

New Jersey were packed with
crowds happy to escape the summer heat of nearby cities.2 On
Saturday, July l, a young Ivy League
graduate from Philadelphia, Charles Vansant, was swimming
jLrst beyond the breakers in four feet of
water at Beach Haven. He was attacked by a shark. Skillful
lif'eguards managed to get him to shore,
but he died soon after from blood loss.
Five days later, a young Swiss bellhop named Charles Bruder, a
strong swimmer like Vansant,
also ventured out past the lifelines at Spring Lake beach, some
forty five miles nor-th of Beach Haven.
He, too, was attacked by a shark. Though rescued by lifeguards
in a small boat, he died of his wounds
befbre reaching shore.
Nearly all of the diminished numbers of Jersey Shore swimmers
stuck close to shore in the days
after the two deaths. However, no one worried about boys
swimming in a creek on July 12 in the town
of Matawan, about two miles fiom open water. One was
attacked and killed by a shark, as was a
young man from the town who dove in to recover the boy's
body. Downstream, another group of boys

were swimming at the same time in ignorance of the attacks.
Within half an hour, one of them had his
leg mauled by a passing shark. However" he was quickly pulled
liom the water. reached the local
hospital, and survived.
By this time, the mounting panic reached a crescendo. Even the
distant San Francisco Chronicle
had a front-page headline on.Iuly 14: EAST COAST BEGINS
wAR oN RAVtrNOUS MAN-
' Unles, otherwise noted, the historical renditiorr follows
Fernicola (2001). the most cornplete account. See also
Capuzzo (2001).
EATERS (Fernicola 2001, 87). Steel mesh was being installed
at beaches. Bounties were offered. and
sharks were killed in sizable numbers along the shore. Finally,
one great white shark was hauled in
near Matawan Creek with what appeared to be human bones in
its stomach. Perhaps for that reason,
the attacks stopped. ending the most serious string of shark-
related fatalities in American history.
Before the attacks, no arm of government had patrolled for
sharks or set up barriers against them
in New Jersey, since there had never been a recorded shark

attack in the history of the state. Indeed"
prominent American scientists doubted that unprovoked shark
attacks on human beings ever occurred,
certainly not as t-ar north as New Jersey.3 (Fernicola 2001, 22).
The general climate of skepticism lecl
the l/ev' York Times to place its article about the flrst attack
only on page 18, headlined "Dies After
Attack by Fish"-no doubt a consolation to the New.lersey resort
owners, who were anxious to avoid
publicity.4
In the aftermath of the attacks. governments, particularly the
federal government, were called on
fbr help. The resorts were losing money rapidly, with a quarter
million dollars in reservations
cancelled within a week. Some resorts had 75 percent vacancy
rates in the midst of their high season
(Captzzo 2001. 274). Losses may have amounted to perhaps as
much as $1 million for the season
altogether, a sizable sum in 1918 (Fernicola 2001 .174). Letters
poured into Cor-rgressional offlces
from the affected counties, demanding federal action, though
there was little any government agency
'' Indeed. two scientists who were later called in to investigate
the attacks. Dr. Jolrn T. Nicols. an ichthyologist

and director of the Fishes Wing of the American Museum of
Natural History. and Dr. Frederick Lucas, director
of the museum. had recently coauthored with athird scientist an
article arguingthat unprovoked sharks never
attack human beings.
a
Parallels to the film "Jaws" arrd its sequels are no accident.
Peter Benchley. the author of the book on rvhicl.r
the film was based, is a New Jersey resident, and the film
version. thor-rgh set on Long Island, New york.
inclr-rdes a reference to the l9l6 New Jersev attacks.
could do. Fernicola (2001, 70) describes the atmosphere, as the
shark attacks entered popular imagery
and became a metaphor for other political crises as well:
Newspaper cartoons now poftrayed Wilson's chances fbr
reelection in November, using the shark
fin as the symbol for his potential loss. The black fin labeled
"def-eat" was shown slicing through
shark-inf-ested northeast regions. Other political cartoons of the
day showed lawyers, represented
by sharks heading toward a beleaguered sailboat, embossed with
"Union Bank." At the stern of
the bank boat. a chewed and legless victim dangled over the
gunnel depicting "deposits."

As it happened, the Secretary of the Treasury, William McAdoo,
had a summer home in Spring
Lake and was in residence at the time of the second attack.
Joseph Tumulty, Wilson's powerful aide
fbr political affairs. had a summer home in Asbury Park, about
five miles norlh of Spring Lake.
President Wilson himself, a former president of Princeton
University and former governor of New
Jersey, had been looking for a summer White House in New
Jersey as well, and chose a hotel in
Asbury Park, moving there shortly after the attacks ended. Thus
the attacks received immediate
federal attention.
Wilson held a Cabinet meeting to discuss the attacks (Fernicola
2001, 70), but the Bureau of
Fisheries could suggest nothing beyond killing sharks at random
and warning bathers. "No cefiainly
efTective preventive measure could be recommended," they said
(Capuzzo 2001, 277). The president
could only direct the Coast Guard to inspect the beaches and
patrol the water. However, the problem
disappeared and autumn arrived before much could be done. By
election time in November, Wilson

ll'as back at his Asbury Park headquarters, but other election
issues, notably potential U.S. entry into
World War I. took over the headlines (Link 954.247 -251). In
the end, Wilson lost nearly all the
northeastern and Great Lakes states, including New Jersey, but
managed to squeak out his re-election
by adding most of the Great Plains. Mountain States and West
to the Democrats' customary Solid
South.
Did the shark attacks influence the presidential election in the
affected areas of New Jersey?
Hitherlo, sharks have not been suspects in any electoral
analysis. Nonetheless, if our argument is
correct. they should have reduced Wilson's vote. First. the
attacks were a natural disaster causing
several deaths plus considerable emotional and financial
distress to entire communities. Second, the
government was thought to be responsible for dealing with the
crisis, and high federal officials were
present at the scene from the beginning. Third, the election
lbllowed the crisis quickly enough that the
summer's events would have been fresh in the minds of the
voters. The fact that no government has

any influence over sharks should have been irrelevant.
The evidence for a shark effect turns out to be rather strong. We
now-turn to the first piece of
that evidence, using election returns at the New Jersey county
level. The Wilson vote in 1916 is the
variable to be explained. Our key independent variable is
"beach county," defined as Monmouth,
Ocean, Atlantic. and Cape May counties. These were, and are,
the classic "Jersey Shore" counties
listed in the guidebooks, whose beach areas are heavily
dependent upon summer tourism. They are the
places in which the shark attacks would have had the most
pronounced economic effects. The attacks
themselves took place in Monmouth (three deaths) and Ocean
(one).
[[email protected]
irg The main finding is:]
The estimated negative effect on Wilson's vote in the beach
counties is a little more than 3
percentage points" with a 95% confidence interval confined
between 1.2 and 5.2. The shark attacks
indeed seem to have had an impact-about one-fourth the eftbct
that the Great Depression had on

Herberl Hoover's vote in New Jersey 16 years later.5
' Hoover's vote share in New Jersey fell from 59.8%in l92B to
41.6o/o ir"r 1932.
6
We underlook two additional investigations with different
samples. First, we examined the vote
in the first two shore townships where the attacks took place.6
Both Beach Haven and Spring Lake
were small, stable communities. making comparison sensible.T
Figure 2 shows the vote change fbr
Wilson between l9l2 and 1916 in these two communities, and
compales it with the change in their
respective counties and in New.lersey as a whole. Both
townships show remarkable drops in Wilson's
support. 11 points in Beach Haven and 9 in Spring Lake, far
more than the negligible changes in the
Wilson vote in their counties and in the state. These are vote
losses equal to those Herbert Hoover
suffbred statewide in New Jersey in 1932 at the height of the
Great Depression. It is apparent that
something drastically reduced enthusiasm for Woodrow Wilson
in these two townships.

*** Figure 2 ***
We also investigated whether Beach Haven and Spring Lake
were typical of beach areas. To
answer this question, we examined the townships in Ocean
County near the water. Ocean was chosen
because it has many beach communities, nearly all on a bank of
land clearly separated from the
mainland. Thus there is no difficulty in separating those seven
communities right on the beach from
the twelve near the beach but not on it.8 The western border of
the near-beach area was set to the
.r
"{_Matarvalr Township and Matarvan Borough, where the final
two shark deatlrs occurred, were excluded from
this analysis since they are not beach resort communities and
thr-rs suffered no widespread economic loss from
their shark attacks or anyone elt"'t] [n any case, the rapid
growth in the number of voters in both places
between 1912 and 1916 makes comparison impossible;morethan
aquarterof the l9l6 voters in Matawan
township had not been there in 1912.
7
Beach Haven cast I I 2 votes fbr president in 1 912 and 1 1 9 in
1 9 1 6. The corresponding numbers for Spring
Lake are 271 and265.

t
One beach township, Sea Side Park. apparently split into two
between I912 and 1916 and jointly nearly
doubled in size; we dropped it from the analysis.
current New Jersey turnpike, which runs within a few miles of
the shore in Ocean County. These two
areas had nearly identical Democratic percentages for
Wilsoninlgl2 (36.3% at the beach and34.loh
in the near-beach), and thus are comparable.
In each area, we compared Wilson's vote percentages in 1912
and 1916. If the argument of this
paper is correct, the beach voters should show the largest drop
in support for Wilson, while the near-
beach citizenry should be largely unaffected. The actual vote
change turns out to be a drop of 8.2
percentage points in the beach area. compared to a tiny 0.2
percentage point gain in the near beach, an
easily statistically significant difl'erence.e Again, we flnd that
disaft-ection lbr Wilson was widespread
in the beach areas whose livelihood was most directly affected
by the shark attacks. far different from
the otherwise comparable areas next door. where Wilson's vote
was nearly constant.l0

In summary, then, every indication in the New Jersey vote
returns fbr 1912 and 191 6 is that the
horrifying shark attacks during the summer of 1916 reduced
Wilson's vote in the fall. Retrospection
here was surely blind. If bathers insist on swimming in the
ocean, governments then and now can do
nothing about shark attacks, as the subsequent attacks in New
Jersey in 1960 and the regular
encottnters in Florida, California, South Africa. and Australia
demonstrate (Fernicola 2001, ch. 5).
" Therervere3llbeach and2645 non-beachvoters in1912.and349
beachand2B5gnon-beachvotersin 1916.
This comparison includes Point Pleasant Beach Boror,rgh as
pafi of the near-beach. In spite of its name, the
overwhelming bLrlk of its population lived in Point Pleasant,
which is not on the beach. However^ this
borough's30percentincreaseinthevotefrom 19l2to
lgl6isthelargestofanybeachornear-beach
community. rnaking its two presidential years less comparable
and suggesting that it shor,rld be excluded fiom
the analysis. If Point Pleasant Beach Borough is excluded, the
near-beach vote change alters fiom +0.2
percentage points to -0.6, still very different from the -8.2
effect at the beach. Sirnilarly, if all beach and non-

beachcommunitieswithmorethan20%o increaseinthevotefrom
l912to lgl6areexcluded,thenon-beach
vote change becomes -0.5, while the beach change is -l l.B. In
shoft, these alternate versions of the sample lead
to precisely the same substantive conclusion.
"' Tlie sarr-re finding fiom the Ocean County township sample
holds when rnedians are used irr place of means,
and when (weighted or unweighted) regressions are run with the
townships as units of observation.
Shark attacks are natural disasters in the purest sense of the
term. and they have no governmental
solution. Yet the voters punished any*ay. "
Of course, it is possible that the voters did not blame the
government for the attacks themselves.
but did blame it for not helping them with their economic
distress. In that case, retrospection might not
be blind. No doubt voters told themselves something like that at
the time. Yet in the case of the
sharks, it is not clear what the government could have done to
help the local economy. The truth could
not be covered up. The vacationers could not be compelled to
come to the beach, nor could the sharks
be forced to stay away. Of course, from the perspective of a
century later, it is obvious that extending

welfare benefits and unemployment compensation would have
helped. But these social programs did
not exist at the time, they could not have been put in place
quickly, and no one would expect them to
be enacted in response to a single local disaster in any case. In
sum, for the case of the New Jersey
shark attacks, "failed disaster assistance" seems a w-eak
hypothesis driven by insufficient historical
perspective.
[section on droughts and 1918 flu epidemic omitted here]
Conclusion
Our account of democratic politics strikes directly at key
assumptions in two different
contemporary schools of thought. Perhaps most obviously, it
questions the ability of ordinary citizens
to assess their public life critically, listen to the proposals for
change coming from contenders for
public office" and then choose between the candidates in
accordance with their own values. Like most
survey researchers who have talked extensively to real voters,
we believe that few such citizens exist.
" On l7 December 1967 Australian prime minister Harold Holt
disappeared while swimming in shark-infested

waters at Cheviot Beach near Poftsea, Victoria. His body was
never found. Being devotees of democracy,
however, we disapprove of this apparent attempt by the sharks
to cut outthe middleman.
The present paper is one more item of evidence. The central fact
about democracies is that the voters
understand little beyond their own and their community's pain
and pleasure, and they think about
causes and effects as the popular culture advises them to think.
The romantic vision of thoughtful
democratic participation in the common life is largely mythical.
Democracy must be defended some
other way, if it is to be defended at all.
Our work also strikes a blow at the customary tallback position
for contemporary defenders of
democracy, namely the view that the voters may know very
little, but they can recognize good and bad
government performances when they see them. Hence they can
choose retrospectively in a defensible
way. In most recent scholarly accounts, retrospection is a
natural and rational feature of democratic
politics. In our view it is natural but not so obviously rational.
Voters operating on the basis of a

valid, detailed understanding of cause and ellbct in the realm of
public policy could reward good
performance while ridding themselves of leaders who are
malevolent or incompetent. But real voters
oflen have only a vague, more or less primitive understanding
of the connections (if any) between
incumbent politicians' actions and their own pain or pleasure.
As a result, rational retrospective voting
is harder than it seems, and blind retrospection sometimes
produces consistently misguided patterns of
electoral rewards and punishments.
What we have not oft-ered here is any systematic account of the
circumstances under which
citizens will find-and accept-a cultural understanding that holds
public officials responsible for
changes in the public's welfare. We know that the framing of
news by the mass media may increase or
decrease the likelihood that citizens will attribute responsibility
for social problems to the government
(Iyengar 1991). We know that politicians themselves may be
more or less successful in "managing
blame," exploiting competing explanations to exonerate
themselves (McGraw 1991). l2 These

rr Ideological commitments may play a significant independent
role in elite constrr"rctions olexplanations fbr
natural or social disasters, as with the Federalists' and
Republicans'competing explanations of the yello1v Fever
epidemic of 1793 (Pernick l9l2). Physicians "divided bitterly
overthe cause of the epidemic," with
10
alternate explanations are always present: some medieval towns
blamed the plague on prostitutes,
beggars. or foreign agents (Herlihy 1997 , 65-67); some New
Jersey residents in 1916 thought that
German U-boats might have induced the sharks to attack
(Fernicola 2001, 166-170'); some Americans
in the grip of the Spanish Influenza pandemic two years later
feared that "plague germs were inserled
into aspirin made by the German drug company Bayer" (Kolata
1999, 3).
When is one explanation accepted rather than another? Much
seems to depend on plausibility
within the folk culture. Unfortunately, a general theory of
political accountability explaining when and
why specific attributions or evasions of responsibility actually
work is nowhere in sight. The

development of such a theory strikes us as a very high priority
for students of democratic politics.
We end, then, on a discouraging note. For those who take the
evidence about voter capacities
seriously, neither Rousseau nor Downs will save us.
Democracies take their electoral direction liom
human beings with fewer capacities for self-government than
either writer imagined. Under sufficient
pressure, those voters may lash out blindly. Such events are not
bizarre historical footnotes rendered
irrelevant by modern education and hygiene. They are inevitable
consequences of human cognitive
limitations-limitations which democratic government has not
altered. Thus, as Sophocles taught and
as the destruction of the Weimar Republic reminds us, when the
inevitable hard times appear, tragedy
may ensue.
Republicans generally attributing it to poor sanitation, climatic
conditions, and the unhealthy location of
Philadelphia. while Federalists blamed disembarking refugees
from Haiti (Pernick 1912.562-563). In fact,
Pernick notes, "both sides were right."
11

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Press.
12
Key. V. O.. Jr. 1966. The Respon.sible Eleclorttte; RotionaliQ
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l3
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14
Figure 2. Change in Woodrow Wilson's Vote in New
Jersey,1912-1916,
in Two Beach Resort Counties with Fatal Shark Attacks during
July 1916
2
New Jersey
o I
2
Ocean County
Monmouth County
o
'6a
o
oo
G
oo
Spring Lake township (site of

Monmouth Co, shark attack)
10
12
Beach Haven township (site of
Ocean Co. shark attack)
l5
Figure 3.
1:
Near-beach townships
o
-
l
-2
'5
6
^,
o-
,8
E.9-

Change in Woodrow Wilson's Vote in New Jersey,
1912-'1916, in Ocean County Townships
Beach townships
16
US Voting Rights and Rules
Book Review
What is the point of Wattenberg’s work, and would you
recommend it to a colleague, why or why not?
Book
Wattenberg, Martin P. (2012). Is Voting for Young People? 3rd.
ed. New York: Pearson Education. ISBN-10: 0205217729;
ISBN-13: 978-0205217724
Instructions:
Please write an original book review addressing the question
above. The paper must be no longer than two (2) pages. A
cover page and work cited or reference pages, where applicable,
are not included in the total page count. The pages should be 8
1/2” x 11” in size. The paper is to be typed. You should use a
1” margin. The font is to be Times New Roman or Courier New
and the type size must be 12 point. The text must be double-
spaced. The paper must be submitted via the assignment bin
under course material on the course menu as a Word (.doc or
.docx) file. These instructions supersede any contrary guidance
provided by a citation manual. The review may be submitted
early. To be fair to students that submit their review timely, a
penalty will be applied to late papers. If you are unable to
comply with any of these instructions for any reason, please
notify your instructor.
Guidance:

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