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This document discusses the accuracy of political polls over time. It shows that while poll averages are generally consistent, the variance in individual poll results has increased in recent years. Specifically, polls have become moderately less accurate at predicting gubernatorial, house, presidential, and senate elections. The document also identifies key factors for adjusting polls, such as the definition of likely voters, data collection methods, historical pollster error rates, frequency of polling, and electoral conditions.
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MediaPost Marketing Politics Sponsor MarketPredict
- 2. “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” -George Box 2
- 3. Poll Miss Moderately Consistent From ‘16-’18 3
- 4. 4 Absolute Error of Polls Over Time AverageAbsoluteError Governor House President Senate Year
- 5. 5 Poll Average Results Similar, but Result Variance Spikes%ofPollswithCorrectCall Year
- 6. 6 Poll Average Results Similar, but Result Variance Spikes%ofPollswithCorrectCall Year
- 7. Key Aspects of Adjusting Polls • Poll definition of ‘likely voter’ • Data collection method can impact results • State/race/pollster historic error • Frequency and volume of polling for a given race • Success conditions for the race – especially with primaries 7
Notas do Editor
- Model for how we collect & adjust polling data is wrong. Question is how wrong.
- See some states have higher poll error, on average and in aggregate, than others.
- Solid error minimization and ‘16 error in-line with historic error. But polls are designed to minimize error, while they are judged based on their ability to correctly call a race.
- Showing last 21 days before election poll results before an election
- Seems like polling is worse with the higher variance, as polling misses more races.