Dr. Richard Stock’s presentation from the April 11th MCOFuture.com forum. To learn more, visit www.mcofuture.com

1. Montgomery
County Economy,
2012-2017
Richard Stock, PhD.
Business Research Group

2. Jobs: The Big Hit and the Comeback,
Dayton Metro, Feb 2007 – Feb 2012
Employment (in 000s)
410
400
390 399.3
395.4
380
370
374.5
360 368.8 370.7
Employment (in 000s)
363.5
350
340
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
In the Last 2 years, the Dayton Metro Area has added jobs for the
first time since 2000. 7,200 Jobs have been added since January
2010

3. Average Weekly Wages in Dayton Metro Area and
United States, 2001-2011 (2011 Constant Dollars)
Average Weekly Wages
• Inflation Adjusted
$920
Average Weekly $891 $891
$900
Wages in the $877
$880
Dayton Metro $855
Area have $860
stagnated over $840
$817
the last 12 years $820 $806 $800
$794
while rising $800
modestly in the $780
U.S as a whole. $760 Dayton Metro
• A slight decline $740 U.S.
occurred with the $720
onset of the $700
recession in 2008

4. The Idea of Industrial Clusters
• Groups of inter-related industries that drive wealth
creation in a region,
– primarily through export of goods and services
• Entire value chain of a broadly defined industry from
suppliers to end products,
– including supporting services and specialized infrastructure
• Location Quotient (LQ) measure of Concentration
(% of local employment / % of national employment)
Source: San Diego Association of Governments

5. Montgomery County Industrial Clusters and LQs
• Biomedical / Biotechnical 1.6
• IT & Telecommunications 1.4
• Education & Knowledge Creation 1.8
• Printing & Publishing 1.7
• Defense and Security 1.0
• Manufacturing Super-cluster 1.6
• Advanced Materials 1.6
• Machinery Manufacturing 3.2
• Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 1.6

6. Montgomery County Industrial Clusters Employment
Growth Prospects
• Biomedical / Biotechnical
• IT & Telecommunications
• Education & Knowledge Creation
• Defense & Security
• Printing & Publishing
• Manufacturing Super-cluster
• Advanced Materials
• Machinery Manufacturing
• Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing

7. The Unemployment Dilemma
Annual Average: Unemployed in Montgomery County
35000 29900
30000
24300
25000
Number of Uemployed 16500
20000
15000 11100
10000
5000
Number of Unemployed in Montgomery County has
fallen in the last two years but is still substantially
above prior levels

8. Montgomery County Industry Specific Unemployment
Rates, 2011
Unemployment
Industry in Which Unemployed Had Worked Rate Industries
Construction 26% Requiring More
Accommodation & Food Services 10% Education Tend
Administrative, Support, Waste to Have Lower
Management 9% Unemployment
Manufacturing 8% Rates
Information 8%
Transportation & Warehousing 8%
Educational Services 6%
Health Care & Social Assistance 6%
Retail Trade 6%
Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services 5%
Finance & Insurance 4%
Government 3%

9. Projected Montgomery County Annual Job Openings by
Type of Occupation, 2012-2017
Annual Percent of
Openings, All 2011 Median
2012-2017 Openings Hourly Wage
Professional (Business, Professions) 2,584 30% $28.40
Office & Administrative Support 3,006 35% $13.80
Traditional Blue Collar
(Manufacturing, Construction,
Transportation, Protective Services) 1,440 17% $15.96
Traditional Low Wage
(Food Prep, Maintenance, Personal care) 1,541 18% $9.34
Total Annual Job Openings 8,677 100% $17.93

10. The Big Question
• Job Openings in Traditional Blue Collar
Occupations will be less than 1 in 5 (17%) of
the job openings that will be available over
the next 5 years.
• How do we get ready for the jobs
Montgomery County will have?