1. Protein Market Review
JAN 2011
Autor: Márcio Caparroz:
marciocaparroz@terra.com.br

2. Market High Lights
Drop in live cattle in Brazil in Nov/December;
ü
Beef pick prices in Brazil for domestic and exports;
ü
Positive scenario for Beef in Brazil in 2011;
ü
Chicken prices increases for local market in Brazil in 2°
ü
semester;
ü
Negative scenario for Chicken and Pork exports from Brazil
since Nov/December;
Potential increase in USA Chicken exports prices.
ü
Autor: Márcio Caparroz:
marciocaparroz@terra.com.br

3. Cattle Prices US$ /Kg
ü
Cattle prices should remain within a higher range in the coming two to three yrs
A combination
of drought and a
strong Real
caused Brazilian
cattle prices to
peak in Oct/Nov’10
Source: Bloomberg, INAC, IPCVA, MLA, Autor: Márcio Caparroz:
Note: Up dated Jan 14th marciocaparroz@terra.com.br

4. Domestic Beef Prices - Brazil and USA (US$/Kg)
ü
Brazilians paying higher prices for their beef
Strong Domestic
consumption in Brazil
maintained meat prices
in line with cattle costs
Source: Bloomberg Autor: Márcio Caparroz:
Note: Up dated Jan 14th marciocaparroz@terra.com.br

5. Brazil Beef Margin (US$/Kg )
ü
The increase in the value of “drop credit” (such as hides) compensated, in large part,
ü
for the negative margin live to carcass
Source: Bloomberg
Note: 10% discount in Live cattle prices referrers to casings, offal's, hides and others Animal by Autor: Márcio Caparroz:
products dated Jan 14th marciocaparroz@terra.com.br
Note2: Up

6. USA Beef Margin
ü
Drop credit offset negative live to carcass margin also in the US
Source: Bloomberg Autor: Márcio Caparroz:
Note: Up dated Jan 14th marciocaparroz@terra.com.br

7. Brazil Beef Exports Spread
Average Price vs. Cattle - US$/Kg
ü
International demand has supported price increase for exported items in line with
input cost hikes
Source: Bloomberg, MDIC
Autor: Márcio Caparroz:
marciocaparroz@terra.com.br

8. USA Beef Exports Spread
Average Price vs. Cattle - US$/Kg
ü
Regardless of substantial increase in volumes exported, pricing power was sufficient
to offset cattle price increase
Source: Bloomberg, USDA Autor: Márcio Caparroz:
Note: December exports are USDA Forecast marciocaparroz@terra.com.br

9. Chicken BR vs. USA (BASE 100)
ü
The US has become a very competitive production platform for chicken witch should
enhance exports from there in 2011
A combination of
robust domestic
demand and strong
Real resulted in much
higher $ in Brazil
Source: Bloomberg Autor: Márcio Caparroz:
Note: Up dated Jan 14th marciocaparroz@terra.com.br

10. Commodities Overview (BASE 100)
Inflation where more
representative in oil
and grains (Corn and
Soy)
Source: Bloomberg Autor: Márcio Caparroz:
Note: Up dated Jan 14th marciocaparroz@terra.com.br

11. Protein Prices Evolution in Brazil (R$/Kg)
Source: CEPEA Autor: Márcio Caparroz:
Note: Up dated Jan 14th marciocaparroz@terra.com.br

12. Brazil Cattle and Beef prices evolution (US$/Kg)
Source: Bloomberg Autor: Márcio Caparroz:
Note: Up dated Jan 14th marciocaparroz@terra.com.br

13. Brazil Chicken Export Spread (US$/Kg)
Source: CEPA, MDIC, Bloomberg Autor: Márcio Caparroz:
Note: Up dated Jan 14th marciocaparroz@terra.com.br

14. USA Chicken Export Spread (US$/Kg)
Source: CEPA, MDIC, Bloomberg Autor: Márcio Caparroz:
Note: Up dated Jan 14th marciocaparroz@terra.com.br

15. Brazil Pork Export Spread (US$/Kg)
Source: CEPEA, MDIC Autor: Márcio Caparroz:
Note: Up dated Jan 14th marciocaparroz@terra.com.br