Industry and environment

1. Prioritised Mitigation Options in the
Third National Communication
(TNC) for UNFCCC
Hemanthi Ranasinghe
National Expert, Mitigation Options, TNC

2. World Risk Index 2017
Sri Lanka is at the top of the list of most
Affected countries !!!

3. GHG Emission status in Sri Lanka
– at 2016
Electricity generation and
the transport are the
sectors contributing the
highest GHG to the
environment – priority
sectors
This is followed by
industries, household and
commercial, waste,
agriculture…

4. Objective of the Assessment
• To identify and assess potential economic, social and policy measures and
human interventions that can be implemented in Sri Lanka to reduce
anthropogenic emissions of green house gases.
• Sectors considered
• Energy (electricity/energy industry, transport, manufacturing industries, household
and commercial)
• Industrial Processes and Product Use
• Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use
• Waste
• Reporting period: 2010 (baseline) to 2030

5. Methodology used
• UNFCCC methodology
• The baseline year – 2010; projections done up to
2030
• Two scenarios developed for each sector and sub
sector; baseline and mitigation scenarios

6. • Baseline Scenario
• Scenario based on the assumption that no mitigation policies or
measures will be implemented beyond those that are already in force
and/or are legislated or planned to be adopted.
• Mitigation Scenario
• describes how the system will respond to the implementation of the
mitigation policies and measures
• Ex Post – The actual emissions resulting from the already
implemented mitigation actions in the country
• Ex Ante – The expected future emissions resulting from the
planned mitigation actions

7. Sector wise Mitigation Assessment

8. Energy Sector - Baseline
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GHGemission(GgCO2eq)
Year
Energy Industry Transport Other

9. Sub Sector: Electricity Generation -
Baseline
Source: GHG Inventory of TNC extrapolated to 2030

10. Electricity Generation – Mitigation
Scenario
• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) of SL to UNFCCC in
2016 - a total of 20% of GHG emission reduction will take place
between 2020 and 2030; 4% unconditional and 16% conditional
• LTGP 2018-2037 to include renewable energy (around 53%) with
1400 MW of LNG: the NDC target of renewable energy up to 60%
by 2020 is still to be achieved with support internationally
• LTGP 2018-20137 to include reduction of transmission loss
• LTGP 2018 – 2037 to include Demand Side Management

11. Figure 7.1 –Cumulative Capacity by Plant Type in Base Case
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
Capacity(MW)
Year
Major Hydro Coal
Combined Cycle-LNG Combined Cycle-Oil
Oil Gas Turbine
Wind Mini hydro
Solar Biomass
Pumped Hydro Peak Demand
100%
Source: LTGP of CEB 2018-2037

12. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
CapacityShare(%))
Year
Major Hydro Wind Mini hydro Solar
Biomass Coal Combined Cycle-LNG Combined Cycle-Oil
Oil Gas Turbine Pumped Hydro

13. 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GHGCo2eq(kt) Scenarios Comparison
History MO 01 MO 02 MO 03 MO 04
Mo 01: LTGEP 2018-2037 –
this includes reduction of
transmission loss and
addition of renewables
MO 02: LTGEP 2018-2037
and the addition of a total of
1400 MW of LNG
according to a Cabinet
Decision
MO 03: LTGEP 2018 – 2037
with the 1400 MW of LNG
and DSM added relevant to
electricity
MO 04: NDC which
indicates that a total of 20%
of GHG emission reduction
will take place between 2020
and 2030; 4% unconditional
and 16% conditional
Total GHG saved by mitigation in 2030 – 8000Gg C02 eq which is a saving of 42%!

14. Transport Sub Sector

15. 0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Number
Number and types of motor vehicles registered in SL
Motor cars
Motor Tricycle
Motor Cycle
Buses
Duel Purpose Vehicles
Lorries
Tractors
Trailers
Total
Motor Cycles
Three Wheelers
Source: Department of Motor Traffic
Total

16. GHG Emissions - Baseline
R² = 0.9476
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GHGemissionsGgC02eq
GHG Emissions Gg C02 eq
GHG Emissions
Linear (GHG Emissions )
Source: MO Expert Group based on GHG Inventory of TNC

17. Mitigation Scenario
• NDCs
• Avoid/reduce journeys
• Modal Shift
• Improve Energy Efficiency of modes of transport and vehicle technologies
• Improve fuel
• Emphasis placed more on the modal shift – to increase the share of the
public transport which is supported by policies and action plans with special
reference to National Transport Policy, Master Plan of the Ministry of
Megapolis and Western Development etc.
• Assumption: the share of the public transport will be 62% in 2030 against the
base case of 47%

18. Specific Projects/Plans towards
this…
• Megapolis and Western Development Master Plan
• Programs with special emphasis on the public transport improvement
• Modernise and improve the quality of buses and services
• Develop multi modal transport hub
• Railway electrification and modernization
• New rapid transit systems
• Light rail transit
• Water transit systems
• Road infrastructure development

19. NAMA on transport – to operate 100
electric buses (BRT) on the Galle Road in
two phases
Expressway Network
Light Rail

20. 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GHGemission(GgCO2eq)
Base Case Mode Shifting Mode shifting + Electric Vehicle
GHG emission reduction by 2030 is 2100 Gg C02 eq which is a 13% reduction.

21. Sub Sector: Manufacturing Industries,
Household and Commercial

22. Figure 3.1: Composition of the Index of Industrial Production
According to the figure 3.1, weights recorded for manufacturing food products and wearing
Food products
35.2%
Beverages
3.8%
Tobacco products
1.7%Manufacture of
Textiles
3.3%
Manufacture of wearing
Apparels
19.8%
Leather and related
products
0.3%
Wood and products of
wood and cork except
furniture; manufacture of
articles of Straw and
plaiting materials
0.2%
Paper and paper products
1.7%
Printing and reproduction
of recorded media
1.4%
Coke and refined
petroleum products
7.4%
Chemicals & chemical
products
4.1%
Basic pharmaceutical
products and
pharmaceutical
preparations
0.1%
Rubber & plastic
products
5.7%
Other non metallic
mineral products
7.8%
Basic metals
2.4%
Manufacture of
fabricated metal
products ( except
machinery equipment )
1.3%
Electrical equipments
2.0%
Machinery & equipments
(n.e.c.)
0.7%
Furniture
0.8%
Other manufacturing
0.3%
The share of different types of industries as a measure of index of production

23. GHG Emissions in the Baseline
Scenario
1060
1080
1100
1120
1140
1160
1180
1200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emissions CO2 eq Gg
Emissions

24. Mitigation Scenario
• NDCs
• Modernise and facilitate industries to reduce
GHG emissions
• Fuel Switching
• Apply eco efficiency
• Greening the industries
• Cleaner Production
• Green Reporting
• DSM etc.

25. 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GHGemission(GgCO2eq)
GHG Emission GgCO2 eq Baseline GHG Emission GgCO2 eq Mitigation
The GHG reduction in 2030 will be 170 Gg C02 eq. which is 14.7%

26. Sector: Industrial Processes and
Product use (IPPU)
Cement
industry
Lime industry and
breweries etc.

27. Year GHG
Emissions
from
Clinker
Productio
n (no
measures)
GHG Emissions from
Clinker Production (with
present measures)
GHG
emissions
from lime
production
No
measure
s
With present
measures
2010 365.1 331.3 564.62 929.74 564.62
2015 426.4 379.6 171.49 597.89 171.49
2020 439.4 379.6 503.08 942.48 503.08
2025 1216.8 1144 752.07 1968.87 752.07
2030 1229.8 1144 1015.06 2244.86 1015.06

28. Mitigation Scenario
• Reduce the amount of clinker used by substituting with fly
ash from proposed coal power plants and that fly ash will
be used by the INSEE Cement Factory)
• Steel slag will be used more when new cement plants will
be located near the shoreline.

29. 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
GHGemissionfromClinkerproduction(CO2
Gg)
GHG emission under no any mitigation activity (CO2 Gg) Cement
GHG emission under present mitigation activities (CO2 Gg) Cement
GHG emission under future mitigation activities (CO2 Gg) Cement
Mitigation Scenario for Clinker Production Process
The GHG reduction in 2030 with mitigation will be 100 Gg C02 eq - a 8.3%

30. Waste Sector

31. Main components
• Municipal solid waste
• Waste water (domestic and industrial)

32. 3384
3583
3820
4073
4344
4634
4943
5274
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2012 - 2016 2017 - 2020 2021 - 2025 2025 - 2030 2031 - 2035 2036 - 2040 2041 - 2045 2045 - 2050
Wastegeneration(Mt/day)
Municipal Solid Waste Generation in Western Province

33. GHG Emissions in Baseline
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
GHG Emissions (CO2 eq Gg)
GHG Emissions

34. Mitigation Scenario
• Conversion of domestic wastewater tanks to bio
energy pits
• Manufacturing compost from municipal solid waste
• Waste to energy projects
• Source reduction

35. 92
85 84
17
0 0 0
6
12 12
12
12 12 11
2 3 4
4
5 5 6
0 0 0
63
79 79 79
0 0 0 3 4 4 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Open Dumping % Composting %
Total Recycling % Mass Disposal %
Master Plan of the Western Province Waste Management Authority 2017-2023

36. Without mitigation
With mitigation
Mitigatory Actions include:
Adhering to the Action Plan of the WPWMA 2017-2023
Post harvest loss reduction
Source reduction
Composting at Karadiyana, Muthurajawela.
Waste to Energy Plants in Muthurajawela and Karadiyana
Conversion of septic tanks into bio energy
Total reduction at 2030
is 1750 C02 eq which is
81%

37. Sector: Agriculture, Forestry and
Other Land Use

38. Sub Sector: Agriculture
• Main contributions to the GHG emissions are;
• Rice Cultivation
• Livestock farming

39. 0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1,000.00
1,200.00
1,400.00
1,600.00
1,800.00
2,000.00
GHGEmissionsGgC02eq
Year
Emissions from rice cultivation in the baseline
Emission
Assumptions: Land productivity remains the same (4.42 mt/ha) and people continue to consume rice at
the same rate

40. Mitigation
• Mitigation scenario 1- Increased in productivity of rice
cultivation which is relegated according to the land
suitability and productivity for rice
• Mitigation scenario 2 - Improved fertilizer use efficiency of
rice cultivation with different farming techniques
Source: Expert opinion in agriculture

41. -
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1,000.00
1,200.00
1,400.00
1,600.00
1,800.00
2,000.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
CH4emission(GgCO2eq)
Year
Mitigation Scenario in rice cultivation
Series1 Miti 01 Miti 02 Total Miti
Expected GHG reduction with mitigation in 2030 is 723 which is 42%

42. Forestry Sub Sector

43. Forestry Sector

44. Forestry Baseline Scenario

48. Mitigation Scenario

51. Programme to increase forest cover in Sri Lanka
Type of land Method Extent (ha) %
1.Establishment of new forests
Degraded forests Restoration 60,500 0.92
Under utilized private lands Reforestation 5,000 0.08
Marginal tea lands Reforestation 5,000 0.08
2. Sustainable management of non-forest
ecosystems
Scrubs, villus, pasture lands Conservation 20,000 0.30
3. Establishment of urban forests Reforestation 5,000 0.08
4. Conservation and sustainable management
of existing forests
Sustainable
management
2,016,472 30.73
Total 2,111,972 32.2

52. Challenges….
• Land policy issues
• Political interference
• Poor coordination between organizations
• Infrastructure development projects
• Localized problems
• Agriculture activities
• Population growth