easy

2.  Maria javed
 Mba IT

3. Decision making underuncertainity

4. Main headings:
 Introduction to the topic
 Important sub-topics
 Practical study of the
organization
 Swot analysis
 Conclusion
 recommendation

5. Definition of decision making:
 The thought process of selecting a logical choice from the
available option.When trying to make a good decision, a
person must weight the positives and negatives of each
option, and consider all the alternatives.
For effective decision making, a person must be able to
forecast the outcome of each option as well, and based on
all these items, determine which option is the best for that
particular situation.
 A decision is a course of action which is conciously choosen
for achieving a desired result.

6. Decision making process:
 Following are the important steps of the decision making process. Each step
may be supported by different tools and techniques

7. 8 steps of decision making
Step 1: Identification of the purpose of the decision:
In this step, the problem is thoroughly analysed. There are a couple
of questions one should ask when it comes to identifying the
purpose of the decision.
 What exactly is the problem?
 Why the problem should be solved?
 Who are the affected parties of the problem?
 Does the problem have a deadline or a specific time-line?
Step 2: Information gathering:
A problem of an organization will have many stakeholders. In
addition, there can be dozens of factors involved and affected by the
problem.
In the process of solving the problem, you will have to gather as
much as information related to the factors and stakeholders involved
in the problem. For the process of information gathering, tools such
as 'Check Sheets' can be effectively used.

8. Cont.....
Step 3: Principles for judging the alternatives:
In this step, the baseline criteria for judging the alternatives should
be set up. When it comes to defining the criteria, organizational
goals as well as the corporate culture should be taken into
consideration.
As an example, profit is one of the main concerns in every decision
making process. Companies usually do not make decisions that
reduce profits, unless it is an exceptional case. Likewise, baseline
principles should be identified related to the problem in hand.
Step 4: Brainstorm and analyze the different choices:
For this step, brainstorming to list down all the ideas is the best
option. Before the idea generation step, it is vital to understand the
causes of the problem and prioritization of causes.
For this, you can make use of Cause-and-Effect diagrams and
Pareto Chart tool. Cause-and-Effect diagram helps you to identify all
possible causes of the problem and Pareto chart helps you to
prioritize and identify the causes with highest effect.
Then, you can move on generating all possible solutions
(alternatives) for the problem in hand.

9. Cont.......
Step 5: Evaluation of alternatives:
 Use your judgment principles and decision-making criteria to
evaluate each alternative. In this step, experience and effectiveness
of the judgment principles come into play. You need to compare
each alternative for their positives and negatives.
Step 6: Select the best alternative:
 Once you go through from Step 1 to Step 5, this step is easy. In
addition, the selection of the best alternative is an informed decision
since you have already followed a methodology to derive and select
the best alternative.
Step 7: Execute the decision:
 Convert your decision into a plan or a sequence of activities.
Execute your plan by yourself or with the help of subordinates.
Step 8: Evaluate the results:
 Evaluate the outcome of your decision. See whether there is
anything you should learn and then correct in future decision
making. This is one of the best practices that will improve your
decision-making skills.

10. Decision Making Under Uncertainty
 Uncertainty
A decision under uncertainty is when there are many
unknowns and no possibility of knowing what could occur in
the future to alter the outcome of a decision. We feel
uncertainty about a situation when we can't predict with
complete confidence what the outcomes of our actions will
be. We experience uncertainty about a specific question
when we can't give a single answer with complete
confidence.
Launching a new product, a major change in marketing
strategy or opening your first branch could be influenced by
such factors as the reaction of competitors, new competitors,
technological changes, changes in customer demand,
economic shifts, government legislation and a host of
conditions beyond your control.

11. uncertainity
 The key to effective decision making
in these circumstances is to acquire as
much relevant information as possible
and to approach the situation from a
logical and rational perspective.Intuition,
judgment, and experience always play
major roles inthe decision-making
process under conditions of
uncertainty.Even so, this condition is the
most ambiguous for managers and the
one most prone to error.

12. Example
 When you have uncertainty, that means
you're not really sure. If you missed a lot
of classes and didn't study much, you
may have uncertainty about whether you
passed your test or not?

13. UNDER UNCERTAINTY, THE DECISIONS BECOME
SUBJECTIVE DUE TO:
 lack of openness to experience,
 inability to see things in unusual ways
 lack of curiosity
 inability to accept and reconcile apparent opposites
 lack of tolerance of ambiguity
 lack of independence in judgment, thought, and action
 lack for autonomy and the willingness to assume it
 lack of self-reliance
 lack of willingness to take calculated risks
 lack of persistence.

14. Practical study of the organization

15. Introduction:
 In year 2008, Wang Jianzhou, CEO of China Mobile is anticipating
that the new brand is not only a brand of the Pakistan branch, but
also an international brand for China Mobile, which aims to provide
communication among societies. MR. Liu LiDong, Director PMO
states, “We are not just mobile operators but information
providers for society”.
 The central idea behind this step is to provide optimized
network coverage across wide range. The combination of continued
rapid growth in Pakistan's economy, rising consumer purchasing
power and the acceleration of informatization throughout the country
is driving a tremendous demand for communications and information
services.
 Irrespective of competitive edge the company wants to maintain
strong relationship with customers by providing value added
services. While elaborating market penetration strategies, Mr
Jianzhou suggested introduction of more value-added services, like
mobile TV, mobile music, news, billing for subscribers specially the
young population.

16. Our vision
 Become an indispensable digital life
partner

17. Our mission
 To lead the future innovatively through:
 Customer Centricity
 Boundary less Team
 Organizational Agility

18. Organization structure
 In Zong the hierarchy is very lean, in general the whole setup
is centralized, all the matters are to be reported to the main
company and all the policies and targets are approved at the
higher level. But at the department level the structure is
decentralized.
 The human resource of Zong is highly skillful, educated and
committed towards their work. Mostly people working in Zong
are masters in specialized fields. According to them their
human resource is their biggest assets. Human resource
manager is responsible of handling any disturbances but
small disputes are handled by supervisors. A continuous
training is conducted inside and outside the organization to
improve the skills of the employee. On achieving different
target different intrinsic and extrinsic rewards are given. The
job description of each and every employee is predefined.
Performance appraisal is done on annual basis.

19. Decision making conditions in
zong

20. Conditions
 Managers make problem‐solving
decisions under three different
conditions: certainty, risk, and
uncertainty. All managers make
decisions under each condition, but
risk and uncertainty are common to
the more complex and unstructured
problems faced by top managers.

21. Risk,certainity,uncertainity
Risk
the possibility that something bad or
unpleasant (such as an injury or a loss) will
happen.
Certainity
Something that will definetly happen or that you
feel very sure about.
Uncertainity
a situation in which something is not known,
or something that is
not known or certain:Nothing is ever
decided,and all the uncertainty is very bad.

22. Decision Making in Certain conditions
 In this situation, the decision maker
obtains the complete information in order
to facilitate his decision making.
Therefore, they are able to know with
certainty what situations will occur in the
future. By knowing what will occur in the
future, hence the results generated by
each of the alternative decisions will be
able to be ascertained or known with
certainty. Therefore, the alternatives that
give the best result will be selected and
implemented.

23. Swot analysis
Strength:
 Appointment of Communications Officer who
provides the enthusiasm, skills, knowledge
and time
 Good facilities for broadcasting information
 A communications Committee representing
all interest groups in the Department
 An Intranet
 Good ‘top-down’ communication

24. Weaknesses:
 Poor facilities for encouraging face to
face contact and discussion
 Very few Departmental meetings at
which all members of Department’s voice
can be heard
 No common area for staff to encourage
collegiality
 Culture of ‘It doesn’t apply to me’
 meetings not attended
 Consequently, weak collective identity

25. Opportunities:
 An information pack to be given to all
visitors to the Department about
research, , consultancy and
industry/government advisory
activities
 More research collaboration with other
companies to form networks/partners
 Improve website

26. Threats:
 Staff consider these kinds of a
activities (external committees) as
unrecognised or not worthwhile
 Staff don’t have the necessary
information to make the collaborative
links
 Staff don’t have the necessary
administrative support
 Staff over-committed and don’t have
time.

27. Conclusions
 We can conclude from this report that
decision making is very important for every
organization.During decision making zong
face different situations like risk,certainity and
uncertainity.risk and uncertainity are most
comen issues that manager face during
decision making. In uncertain situation, the
decision maker obtains the complete
information in order to facilitate his decision
making. Therefore, they are able to know with
certainty what situations will occur in the
future.

28. Recomendation
 Managers can improve decision-making.
They can adopt strategies for
organizational learning, increase the
breadth and diversity of the top
management team. To improve decision
making, top managers can surround
themselves with people who express
opposing points of view. They can collect
information from dissenters. However,
managers often select people who agree
with them.