Ethanol x Gas X Sugar - Some thoughts in Supply & Demand

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Marcelo Pierossi

Project Assignment for Economic Issues, Food & You from Coursera

Educação Tecnologia Negócios

Ethanol x Gas X Sugar
Some thoughts in Supply & Demand
Marcelo Pierossi
Economic Issues, Food & You - Coursera 2013

Journey Entry
10 - Relationship between ethanol and gasoline in Brazil reaches
71.73% (In portuguese)
The article below is from an important brazilian newspaper and comments
about the price relationship between ethanol for fueling vehicles and gasoline.
In Brazil, we have the option to use both fuels, because our cars are flex fuel
cars and are able to run with any mix of both fuels. But one issue important is
that the energy content from ethanol is 70% of energy content of gasoline, so
this ratio is the maximum value for using ethanol instead gasoline. And
because ethanol is a agribusiness product with a large seasonal content, time
of the year is other important issue in the equation: Ethanol or Gasoline?
• What are the factors affecting this ratio?
• This kind of relationship pushes towards market perfection?
• How price is affected by supply and demand law?
http://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/economia-geral,relacao-entre-etanol-
e-gasolina-em-sp-atinge-7173,148563,0.htm
© Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

Brazilian Sugarcane Production
© Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

Brazilian Sugarcane Mills
Flexible operation: Sugar and Ethanol (from 40 to 60%)
© Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

Production Mix
• Production defined by Prices
• Sugar Prices – International Prices
• Ethanol Prices – Domestic Market
 Gas – competitor (every gas station has both)
 70% of energy content compared with Gas
© Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

Domestic Sugar S&D
Amortgui, H. - A PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF BRAZILIAN BIOFUEL ECONOMY:
LAND USE, INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT AND FUEL PRICING POLICIES – UIUC, 2012
© Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

Sugar International Market
World raw sugar price, ICE Contract 11
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
Dec-99 Apr-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Aug-13 Dec-14
Centsperpound
© Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

Sugar Domestic Market
© Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

Flex Fuel Engines
• A flexible-fuel vehicle (FFV) or dual-fuel vehicle (colloquially called
a flex-fuel vehicle) is an alternative fuel vehicle with an internal
combustion engine designed to run on more than
one fuel, usually gasoline blended with either ethanol or methanol
fuel, and both fuels are stored in the same common tank.
• Modern flex-fuel engines are capable of burning any proportion of
the resulting blend in the combustion chamber as fuel
injection andspark timing are adjusted automatically according to the
actual blend detected by electronic sensors.
© Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

Flex Fuel Cars
• Evolution of the numbers of flex fuel cars
in Brazil (a graph will be added)
© Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

Domestic Ethanol S&D
Amortgui, H. - A PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF BRAZILIAN BIOFUEL ECONOMY:
LAND USE, INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT AND FUEL PRICING POLICIES – UIUC, 2012
© Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

Ethanol Domestic Market
© Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

Gas Prices
Source: Financial Times
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/
00d4d8ee-8603-11e2-
bed4-
00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2S
VwhAOwa
© Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

Gas Prices
Source: Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/
news/2013-01-
17/petrobras-gasoline-
price-rise-undecided-on-
inflation.html
© Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

Gas International Prices
Source: Petrobrashttp://www.petrobras.com.br/en/products/price-composition/
© Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

Gasoline Market
• Importation
© Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

Petrobras Market Value
Source : Bovespa
© Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

Ethanol vs Gasoline vs Corn USA
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Corn $ / bu.
Ethanol $ / gal.
Gasoline $ / gal.
© Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

Bankruptcy of sugar mills in Brazil
© Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

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Abstract The search is on for ways to marry the twin goals of economic development and environmental protection, one of the most promising strategies could be the use of ethanol as a renewable fuel to reduce environmental pollution from India’s transport sector while creating new jobs in rural communities. Ethanol as a gasoline blend has helped to reduce dependence on oil import and harmful vehicular emission and improve the rural economy. Since ethanol is produced from biomass such as sugarcane, molasses and grains, its widespread use has led to higher biomass yield, rural economy and growth in Industry. The main aim of this paper: 1) Economic and Environmental benefits of use ethanol in India, 2) How ethanol use has helped to improve environmental quality and promote economic development, etc. So far, the discovery of fossil fuel reserves has more than kept pace with demand. Known resources now exceed a trillion (10¹²) tones in total compared with just over half this amount 30 years ago. Hydrocarbons get heavier, they become less volatile, and these heavier fractions make excellent liquid fuels for Cars, Lorries and Aircraft respectively. With this in mind, Ethanol, Methanol, Easter and Hydrogen are the principal renewable contenders. In the last decades, technological advances have lowered the cost of producing high quality fuels and chemical products from plant matter, while environmental regulations have raised the cost of manufacturing and using petroleum derived products, mounting evidence of the potential contribution of gasoline and diesel combustion to global climate interest in long term, sustainable fuel solutions for the transport sectors. Stakeholders, who were once adversaries, are today, working together, to move toward a “renewable energy” future.

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Ethanol Based Products Contribution to Brazil’s Economic Growth METHODOLOGY Ethanol Based Products Contribution To Brazil’s Economic Growth Fuel is one of the main factors that contribute either positively or negatively to the economy of a country. Brazil has come up with the invention of fuel from ethanol. This research seeks to find out whether the development and implementation of ethanol based products and technologies have been a contributing factor to Brazil's rapid economic growth in the past 10 years. It also seeks to establish if it has contributed, will it continue to provide economic growth in the future? Justification It is obvious that the world encounters an energy crisis. Ethanol, produced mainly from sugar cane or maize, constitutes 90 percent of biofuels produced in the world (the rest is biodiesel). According to Otaviano Canuto, the head of the World Bank Brazil, ethanol pollutes 60 percent less compared to oil (Foreign Policy No.118, July/August 2007). Sustainable bioenergy: a framework for decision makers, published by the United Nations in April 2007, argues that biofuels are the only short-term alternative to replace oil in transportation which is the main source of the emission of greenhouse gases. Brazil is one of the countries that risked replacing oil with ethanol. The awareness of renewable energies is a recent issue with few countries investing in research and development of more clean fuels. Brazil is one of the striking examples. Even though it is a third world country, it is trying hard in achieving its development through implementation of various elements in their economic development strategies. In the next 10 years, Brazil plans to triple the ethanol production area by increasing the arable land from three to nine million hectares. The Brazilian government has already signed an internal agreement with farmers and entrepreneurs for the expansion. This is because the plan does not intend to degrade the environment through the cutting down of forests, but rather make use of appropriate grassland and grow soybean crop. The aim of this research is to understand how the recent trade of renewable fuel will be viable and profitable in less than10 years. In addition, it is meant to help understand the mechanism and ways through which Brazil can survive in this oligopoly ethanol market. Besides regional change, this research will allow us to take a broad view and understanding of the effect of ethanol energy on the automotives whose change is in favor of biofuel, which in turn is jeopardizing the traditional automotive market. Objectives1) To determine how ethanol became an alternative fuel in Brazil. 2 To determine the relationship between investment in research and development and economic growth in Brazil. 3) To find out the contributions of ethanol production economically. 4) To determine the importance of biofuel market and Brazilian estimated contribution to automotive construction. Problem Sometimes t ...

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Ethanol x Gas X Sugar - Some thoughts in Supply & Demand

1. Ethanol x Gas X Sugar Some thoughts in Supply & Demand Marcelo Pierossi Economic Issues, Food & You - Coursera 2013

2. Journey Entry 10 - Relationship between ethanol and gasoline in Brazil reaches 71.73% (In portuguese) The article below is from an important brazilian newspaper and comments about the price relationship between ethanol for fueling vehicles and gasoline. In Brazil, we have the option to use both fuels, because our cars are flex fuel cars and are able to run with any mix of both fuels. But one issue important is that the energy content from ethanol is 70% of energy content of gasoline, so this ratio is the maximum value for using ethanol instead gasoline. And because ethanol is a agribusiness product with a large seasonal content, time of the year is other important issue in the equation: Ethanol or Gasoline? • What are the factors affecting this ratio? • This kind of relationship pushes towards market perfection? • How price is affected by supply and demand law? http://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/economia-geral,relacao-entre-etanol- e-gasolina-em-sp-atinge-7173,148563,0.htm © Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

5. Production Mix • Production defined by Prices • Sugar Prices – International Prices • Ethanol Prices – Domestic Market  Gas – competitor (every gas station has both)  70% of energy content compared with Gas © Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

6. Domestic Sugar S&D Amortgui, H. - A PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF BRAZILIAN BIOFUEL ECONOMY: LAND USE, INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT AND FUEL PRICING POLICIES – UIUC, 2012 © Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

7. Sugar International Market World raw sugar price, ICE Contract 11 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 Dec-99 Apr-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Aug-13 Dec-14 Centsperpound © Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

9. Flex Fuel Engines • A flexible-fuel vehicle (FFV) or dual-fuel vehicle (colloquially called a flex-fuel vehicle) is an alternative fuel vehicle with an internal combustion engine designed to run on more than one fuel, usually gasoline blended with either ethanol or methanol fuel, and both fuels are stored in the same common tank. • Modern flex-fuel engines are capable of burning any proportion of the resulting blend in the combustion chamber as fuel injection andspark timing are adjusted automatically according to the actual blend detected by electronic sensors. © Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

10. Flex Fuel Cars • Evolution of the numbers of flex fuel cars in Brazil (a graph will be added) © Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

11. Domestic Ethanol S&D Amortgui, H. - A PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF BRAZILIAN BIOFUEL ECONOMY: LAND USE, INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT AND FUEL PRICING POLICIES – UIUC, 2012 © Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

13. Gas Prices Source: Financial Times http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ 00d4d8ee-8603-11e2- bed4- 00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2S VwhAOwa © Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

14. Gas Prices Source: Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/ news/2013-01- 17/petrobras-gasoline- price-rise-undecided-on- inflation.html © Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

15. Gas International Prices Source: Petrobrashttp://www.petrobras.com.br/en/products/price-composition/ © Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

18. Ethanol vs Gasoline vs Corn USA 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Corn $ / bu. Ethanol $ / gal. Gasoline $ / gal. © Marcelo Pierossi - 2013

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