Mobile Operator Strategy Analysis

1. November
2012
MOSA Quartely Report – Issue 19
Mobile Operator Strategies Analysis
CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL
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2. November
2012
Hard Data + Disruptive Analysis =
Research Value
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3. Analyst Team November
2012
Adlane Caroline Robert Cintia
Fellah Gabriel Syputa Garza
Customer Engagement Research Director Senior Advisor Market Analyst LATAM
Miami London Seattle Mexico
Esteban Basharat Luis Magnus
Monturus Ashai Reyes Johansson
Market Analyst Regulatory
Backhaul and RAN Research Senior Operator Advisor
APAC and MEA Lima
Barcelona Mexico
India
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4. Introducing MOSA
November
2012
Deliverables:
Mobile Operator Strategy
Analysis
Online Database
• The new evolution of 4G
Counts
Monthly Research Notes
• Comprehensive data on the
mobile broadband strategies
of operators, plus unrivalled
depth in qualitative analysis Quarterly Reports
and forecasting
• Operator Profiles, KPIs Device Forecasts
• Spectrum, Network and device
Strategies
• SWOT Analysis
• Investment Forecasts by Global Spectrum
Operator Wireless Watch &
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5. November
2012
Structure of MOSA
DRIVERS CHALLENGES SOLUTIONS
MOSA Matrix
• Top 100 4G operators analyzed against 10 key trends identified by MaRe for their impact on the 4G business case
• Small cells and HetNet
• Multiband LTE deployments including carrier aggregation In each key topic area, gold
• TD-LTE and converged FD/TD-LTE standard operators selected
• Voice strategies including VoLTE and analyzed in depth for
• LTE-Advanced deployment/contribution their market leadership in the
• Cloud RAN area. The business case and
• Machine-to-machine services prospects of others are
• Advanced backhaul strategies assessed against the same
• Mobile cloud services criteria.
• Innovative applications including vertical markets
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6. November
2012
Key Components of MOSA
Core MOSA data – top 100 4G operators.
Tracking their networks, spending plans, business models, technology
platforms. In-depth strategic profiles of key players.
Backhaul Service
Data, forecasts and full analysis on key backhaul technologies, trends and
operator behaviour with detailed research notes
Cell Service
Data, forecasts and full analysis on key RAN technologies, trends and operator
behaviour with detailed research notes on topics such as small cells and C-RAN.
4G Forecast Service
Five- year forecasts for 4G RAN, device, subscriber and other key metrics
ClearSpectrum
Comprehensive database and analysis on 4G spectrum .
Total Disruption
Identifying and forecasting the next technologies which will change the mobile
landscape
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7. November
2012
Table of Contents (1)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11
SECTION 1. DRIVERS 17
Mobile broadband traffic and forecast
Mobile cloud services and forecast
SWOT SKT
Carrier apps and APIs, trends and forecast
SWOT Telefonica Digital
SECTION 2. CHALLENGES 30
Capacity crunch versus revenue squeeze
Spectrum availability
Global spectrum trends for LTE
Quarterly developments
Subsidies and device costs, trends and forecasts
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8. November
2012
Table of Contents (2)
SECTION 3. SOLUTIONS 44
Small cells and HetNet, trends and forecast
Challenges
SWOT KDDI
Carrier Wi-Fi
Multiband and carrier aggregation
SWOT AT&T
TD-LTE trends and forecasts
SWOT China Mobile
The quarter’s deployments and highlights
TDD/FDD convergence
Challenges
SWOT 3 Europe
Advanced backhaul strategies
Small cell backhaul
SWOT China Mobile
Cloud-RAN trends and forecasts
M2M services
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9. November
2012
Table of Contents (3)
Challenges and outlook
SWOT Vodafone
Voice and VoLTE strategies
SWOT MetroPCS
SECTION 4. TRENDS AND FORECASTS 74
FD-LTE Market Trends
LTE subscriber trends and forecasts
LTE data speeds and prices by region
LTE contracts by vendor
LTE device ecosystem – form factor and vendors
WiMAX trends and forecasts
Deployments
Devices and base stations
SECTION 5. FORECAST DATA 2012-2017 99
APPENDIX: List of LTE roll-outs worldwide June to October 2012 109
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10. November
2012
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Mobile Operator Strategies Analysis
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11. November
2012
Executive Summary
At the heart of the new Mobile Operator Strategy Analysis (MOSA) service is the MOSA Matrix.
This assesses the Top 100 4G operators against the 10 key technology and business trends,
identified by Maravedis-Rethink as critical for business success. For the third quarter of 2012,
the following operators were identified as leaders in these areas:
TRENDS OPERATOR
Small Cells/HetNet KDDI
Multiband LTE/carrier aggregation AT&T
TD-LTE roadmap China Mobile
VoLTE and voice strategies MetroPCS
FDD/TDD convergence 3 Europe
Advanced Backhaul strategies China Mobile
Mobile Cloud services SK Telecom
M2M services Vodafone Europe
Carrier Applications inc vertical Telefonica Digital
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12. November
2012
Executive Summary
Selected research highlights in the MOSA key trends
TRENDS HIGHLIGHTS
Small Cells/HetNet Small cell sales reach 15.9m by 2017, exc WiFi
Multiband LTE/carrier aggregation CA to unlock underused bands for LTE esp L-band
TD-LTE roadmap TD-LTE capex $2.3bn in five years, 31% of 4G total
VoLTE and voice strategies VoLTE stems voice revenue decline with rich comms services but does
not generate ARPU growth
FDD/TDD convergence By 2017, 83% of LTE devices capable of dual-mode
Advanced Backhaul strategies Fiber only 10% of small cell backhaul links 2017 despite huge projects
eg China Mobile
Mobile Cloud services 74% of mobile data volume by 2017
M2M services 20% of carriers say M2M will be number one source of revenue
growth 2013-17
Carrier Applications inc vertical Telefonica and SKT alone target $12bn from carrier apps 2017
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13. November
2012
Executive Summary
MOSA Key trends:
Operators are struggling with explosion in over-the-top data, but they are regaining some
control. Key tactics are:
•tiered tariffs and lower subsidies
•mobile cloud services eg SK Planet. Will add $60 incremental ARPU by 2017
•carrier APIs
By 2017 operators will have added $150 in average annual ARPU from entirely new services
driven by LTE. Key examples:
•M2M and smart grid
•Mobile cloud especially enterprise
•Multiscreen content delivery
Mobile operators will have invested a total of $34.7bn in the period from 2012 to 2017 in 4G
infrastructure. That level of spend flattening out by 2017.
By 2017, LTE subscriber base will reach 875.75m, 75% of these on the networks of the MOSA
Top 100 operators.
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14. November
2012
Sample SWOT: Vodafone Group M2M
• Largest European M2M operator by S. W.
connections (8.3m Q212), second in •Huge scale •Too reliant on slowing
world to AT&T •Multinational services EU market
• Growth rate 26% pa in devices, 33% •Important long term •Limited control of
in revenue – squeeze on ARPU partnerships eg Bosch, module ecosystem
• Some key partners and customers: IBM •ARPU already declining
– Auto (BMW) rapidly
– Smart home (leads Smarter Home
Initiative with IBM)
– Smart grid (British Gas) O. T.
– Industrial (integrated platform with •Expand alliances •Fragmented market,
Bosch) beyond EU heartland different proposition
• Focuses on managed services, •Leverage existing strong needed for each sector
working with many module and SIM pact with China Mobile •Cloud-focused Asian
makers •Create added value operators expanding to
services on top of M2M Europe
• We expect M2M to be in its top three framework •Device support issues
generators of additional revenue
from LTE by 2017
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15. November
2012
Sample Forecast
We have produced two LTE
subscriber forecasts:
1. MOSA Operator
Forecast: Based on
input from operators
themselves, this
indicates the numbers
for the key carriers,
included in our top 100
2. Total Industry
Forecast: Including
estimates for the
whole operator base,
Maravedis-Rethink
anticipates that by
2017 there will be
approximately 875
million LTE subs.
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16. TO ORDER OR TO REQUEST
A LIVE DEMO, CONTACT:
Adlane Fellah,
Customer Engagement
Maravedis-Rethink
US Land: +1(305) 865 1006
afellah@maravedis-bwa.com
www.mosaservice.com
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