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Energy PresentCredits: REUTERS/Daniel Beltra; AP/Gerald Herbert; GETTY/Mira Obermanhttp://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/05/disaster_unfolds_slowly_in_the.html• Air & WaterPollution• InternationalConflict• ClimateChange• GlobalCompetition• ResourceDepletion• EconomicVulnerability
Policy & Technology Context – Global & FederalUNFCCC• “…preventdangerousanthropogenicinterference…”CopenhagenAccord• “…the increasein globaltemperatureshould be below2 degreesCelsius…”BAU (6°C+)(~3°C)(~2°C)Cape & Islands implications: Annual emissions must stop increasing, thensharply decrease, necessitating technological transformation.
Policy & Technology Context – StateClimate Policy• Reduce emissions by 10-25% below 1990 levels by2020 and 80% by 2050Renewable Energy Policy• Renewable Fuels (RFS): 5% by 2013• Renewable Generation (RPS): 15% by 2020Renewable Energy Targets (Gov. Patrick)• Deploy 250 MW of PV by 2017• Deploy 2000 MW of wind by 2020Efficiency & Supply Policy• Reduce total consumption by 10% by 2017 andbuilding fossil fuel use by 10% by 2020• Meet 25% of electric load with demand-side measuresby 2020 (but net-metered generation is capped)Massachusetts State House
CIRenew “Beyond Cape Wind” Process &CIGoGreen Goals• “Beyond Cape Wind” Process brings stakeholders to table– “Beyond” = in addition to … or instead of Cape Wind• Facilitated activities spark dialogue and establish “Points ofConsensus”– Control costs, improve security, increase independence, createjobs, protect character, reduce emissions– Maximize conservation and efficiency, increase reliance onrenewables, avoid nuclear and coal, localize benefits• Visioning establishes long-term goals– Reduce direct fossil fuel use for heating and transport by50%, relative to baseline (2007)– Harness local renewable resources to meet 100% of netannual electricity needs• Cape & Islands Go Green (CIGoGreen) report providesqualitative action plans and identifies near-term priorities• EPRI-funded Technology Strategy project defines immediateresearch, development, demonstration, and deployment(RDD&D) needs and quantitative action plans20052006200720082009Cape & IslandsRenewable EnergyCollaborative,“See I Renew”Cape & Islands Go Green,“See I Go Green!”
CIGoGreen Goals – Technology Implications• Reduce direct fossil fuel use for heating andtransport by 50%, relative to baseline– Future consumption, in terms of energy content(MMBtu), is capped based on 2007 use– Conservation, efficiency, and fuel switching arerequired across both sectors– Fuel switching options include lower-carbon fossilfuels, renewables, and electrification• Harness local renewable resources to meet100% of net annual electricity needs– Future consumption is not capped– Conservation, efficiency, and net-metered generationare needed to reduce needs– Large-scale renewables deployment is required– Load growth is necessary to allow for electrificationand help decarbonize transport and heating sectors
Inventory• Energy Supply & Use– Fossil Fuels– Nuclear– Renewables– Canal & SEMASS Plants• Energy-Only CO2 Emissions• Energy Prices & Bills• Primary Sources– EPRI– NStar, National Grid, Cape Light Compact, ISO-NE– Vineyard Energy Project, Mirant, Cape Air, Mass Coastal Railroad,Cape Power Systems– MTC RET, DOER, RMV, DOR, DEP– U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Census BureauCape & Islands Total Energy by Sector & Source,2007 (MMBtu)05,000,00010,000,00015,000,00020,000,00025,000,0001Electricity Transportation Heating Canal Plant
2007 Inventory – Cape & Islands DependenceFossil Fuels - 91%1. Gasoline2. Natural gas3. Heating oil4. Diesel5. Aviation6. PropaneNuclear Power – 4%Renewables – 5%1. Bioenergy2. Hydro3. Wind4. SolarCape & Islands Energy Technology Strategy:Extent of Dependence, 200791%4% 5%FossilNuclearRenewablesFuels derived from crude oil supply vehicles,ferries, and planes; heat homes; run powerplants …
2007 Inventory – Cape & Islands ConsumptionEnergy Consumption• Per capita – 6,100 kgoe– Less than US (8,367 kgoe)– Greater than Massachusetts (5,775 kgoe)– 3 times the world average (2,000 kgoe)• Total (60.9 TBtu) exceeds that of entire nations in developing worldEnergy Use (KTOE)PopulationCape & IslandsCongoCape & IslandsCongoCredits: WRI, CIA
2007 Inventory – Cape & Islands EmissionsEnergy-Related CO2 Emissions• Per capita - 16.0 MT– Greater than Massachusetts– Less than United States (19.1 MT)– Global Top 20• Total (3.9 million MT) exceeds that of many large, undeveloped countriesCredit: Wikipedia Commons based 2006 CDIAC/UN DataThese figures are for energy consumption only; theydo not reflect life-cycle emissions associated withresource use, emissions from Canal Plant, emissionsattributable to combustion of MSW, etc.
Greening Transport: Major ChallengesBig Numbers• 2007: ~250,000 LDVs• 2020: ~300,000 LDVsSlow Turnover• Average vehicle lifetime: >10 yearsOther Barriers• Limitations of current technologies andfuels• Consumer desires - “Cash for Clunkers”experience• Mixed signals - capital costs vs. life-cyclesavings• Auto-centric culture• Chicken vs. egg for advanced technologies50% Reduction Target: 10.9 TBtu
Greening Transport: Conclusions50% Scenario• CAFE standards, gas-electrichybrids, clean diesels, andFFVs are important butinsufficient• Greening growth has littleimpact in developed areas• Broad portfolio of newtechnologies needed– High-efficiency LDVs– Advanced biofuels– Plug hybrids and all-electrics– Car-free travel– Efficiency/biofuels in trucking,air, rail, marine, etc.Cape & Islands Energy Technology Strategy:Possible Mix of Light-Duty Vehicles for 50%Fossil Fuel Reduction25%20%20%25%8% 2%Plug Hybrid E85 Biodiesel Hybrid Internal Combustion Car FreeProgress depends on majortechnology advances, plus localabilities to plan for andaccelerate deployment.
Greening Buildings: Major ChallengesInefficient Stock• Tens of thousands of buildingswere constructed years ago, forseasonal living, and/or toinadequate standardsInadequate Capacity• Turning energy audits into action achallenge due to institutional,financing, and workforce limitationsOther Barriers• Mixed signals – installation costsvs. life-cycle savings• Split incentives• Sole-source contracting inefficiency programs50% Reduction Target: 10.1 TBtu
Greening Buildings: Technology PrioritiesBuilding Envelope• Air Sealing & Insulation• Windows & Doors• Deep RetrofitsHeating Systems• Replacements• Low-Carbon Fuel Switch• CogenerationBioheat• Biodiesel• Wood & PelletsSolar• Hot Water• HeatingElectrification• Geothermal HeatPumps• Air-Source HeatPumps
Greening Buildings: ConclusionsFOSSIL FUEL REDUCTION “WEDGES”Technology QuantityBuilding Envelope & Heating 125,000+Biodiesel Blend in Heating Oil 30,000Solar Thermal (DHW) 25,000Solar Thermal (Heating & DHW) 8,000Air-Source Heat Pump 8,000Biomass (Pellet/Wood Stoves) 6,000Deep Retrofits 6,000Geothermal Heat Pump 2,00050% Scenario• 30% – air sealing,weatherization, heatingsystem upgrades in everybuilding• 8% – large (20%+) biodieselfraction in all remainingheating oil• 12% – six additional“wedges” Challenge lies not in technologybut in deployment; innovativeinstitutions, policies, and fundingand financing methods needed.
Greening Power: Major ChallengesTechnology Limitations• Supply, delivery, utilization are not smart• Siting projects is extremely difficult• Wind and solar have low energy density• Biomass fuel supply insufficient• Offshore wind limited to shallow water atpresent• Wave and tidal not commerciallyavailable today• Costs exceed those fossil generation
Greening Power: Conclusions• Conservation, efficiency,solar, and onshore windare not enough• Cape Wind meets needsonly if sales decline byabout 25%• “Beyond Cape Wind”deployment required …• To meet stable orgrowing load• To electrify transport:(~100 MW for 25%)• To achieve state goal:“2000 MW by 2020”Challenge lies both in technologyand in deployment; communitybenefits are critical.
“Visions of Success” - 6/18/09 Forum• Community-based siting, planning, construction,and operations• Creation of jobs and additional economic activity• Beneficial effects on security, climate changeissues• Stabilization/reduction of electric rates throughlong-term contracts• Minimal or no adverse impacts on communitycharacter and cultural values• No adverse impacts on navigation andsustainable fishing• Protection of habitats and species• Positive effects on real estate market andrecreational fishing• Revenues for addressing energy justice andenvironmental issuesTalisman EnergyGreening Power – Community Benefits
Greening Power: Offshore Planning• Federal offshore renewables task forceestablished for waters outside state limit• State Ocean Management Plan providesopportunities to determine siting andsizing and maximize community benefitfor projects within state waters• Cape Cod Commission has establishedOcean Management Planning DCPC –24 turbines allowed (85 to 120 MW)• Provisional area, innovation zone presentopportunities• Public outreach, education, engagement,empowerment must be part of futuredecision-making
Greening Power - Conclusions• Community-scale projectscould meetcurrent needsof mostindividualtowns and theislands• Localizingbenefits iscritical forfuture projectsin state watersand beyondCommunity-Sized Projects Reduce Economies of ScaleCape & Islands Energy Technology Strategy: Offshore WindTurbines for Local Electricity Independence (3.6-MW Units; CF = 38%)0510152025303540BARNSTABLEBOURNEBREWSTERCHATHAMDENNISEASTHAMFALMOUTHHARWICHMASHPEEORLEANSPROVINCETOWNSANDWICHTRUROWELLFLEETYARMOUTHNANTUCKETVINEYARDNumberofTurbines
Greening Power: Electrifying TransportCredits: Alison Alessi, GM, GEPlug Hybrids & All-Electric Vehicles: 25% ofPersonal Vehicle Use in 2020• Nantucket: 12,500 MWh• ~4 MW offshore wind• Martha’s Vineyard: 18,000 MWh• ~6 MW offshore wind• Cape Cod: 265,000 MWh• ~80 MW offshore windIndividuals: 4400 kWh - 14,000 miles• 3.6 kW of rooftop PVBenefits: “fuel” cost savings of ~25 to 75%,no reliance on imports, no emissions
Greening the Cape & Islands – Top 10 Projects& InitiativesGreening Buildings1. Building Envelope: Promote air sealing, insulation, and sustained action2. Heating Plant: Promote retrofits and lower-carbon fuel switching3. Solar Thermal: Promote domestic hot water and heating uses4. Electrification: Promote air-source and geothermal heat pumpsGreening Transportation5. Biofuels: Deploy infrastructure, explore algal biofuel production6. Electrification: Demonstrate charging stations at transport terminals7. Car-Free Travel: Restore passenger rail service to North Falmouth and HyannisGreening Power8. Offshore Renewables: Secure benefits from Cape Wind, develop community-based projects, and demonstrate advanced technologies9. Intelligrid: Integrate end uses and renewables with delivery infrastructure10. Infrastructure: Incorporate advanced technologies in wastewater and solidwaste managementCredits: Joan Muller, Toyota, BusinessWire, Chevy, GE, MCT, Pelamis
Greening the Cape & Islands – Benefits• Huge Progress TowardIndependence – 70%• Major Cut in CarbonEmissions – 61%• Large Reductions in EnergyBills• Price Stabilization, InsulationAgainst Fuel & Carbon Markets• Job Creation
Recommendations for Strategic Energy/ClimatePlanning1. Engage stakeholders, experts, and public – Educate and empowerconstituents2. Set energy and climate objectives – Adopt vision and stretch goals3. Get organized – Establish committee or task force addressingenergy/climate response4. Start counting – Develop comprehensive energy/emissions inventoriesacross all sectors and at different scales5. Explore opportunities – Evaluate conservation, efficiency, fuel switching,and renewable generation options and assess quantitative impacts6. Identify priorities – Define discrete projects and initiatives7. Engage stakeholders, experts, and public – Take coordinated action
Questions?Contact Information:Chris PowickiPrincipal, Water Energy & Ecology Information ServicesBrewster, MA774.email@example.com