Cape & Islands Energy Technology Strategy Chris Powicki Water Energy & Ecology Information Services

1. Chris Powicki
Principal,
Water Energy & Ecology
Information Services

2. Outline
• Context
• Stakeholder Process
– Consensus Visions & Goals
• Technology Strategy
– Inventory
– Transport, Heating & Electricity
Modules
– Priority Projects & Initiatives
• Recommendations
Photo Credit: NASA/Dan Burbank
Design Credit: Hooper Design

3. Energy Present
Credits: REUTERS/Daniel Beltra; AP/Gerald Herbert; GETTY/Mira Oberman
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/05/disaster_unfolds_slowly_in_the.html
• Air & Water
Pollution
• International
Conflict
• Climate
Change
• Global
Competition
• Resource
Depletion
• Economic
Vulnerability

4. Policy & Technology Context – Global & Federal
UNFCCC
• “…prevent
dangerous
anthropogenic
interference…”
Copenhagen
Accord
• “…the increase
in global
temperature
should be below
2 degrees
Celsius…”
BAU (6°C+)
(~3°C)
(~2°C)
Cape & Islands implications: Annual emissions must stop increasing, then
sharply decrease, necessitating technological transformation.

5. Policy & Technology Context – State
Climate Policy
• Reduce emissions by 10-25% below 1990 levels by
2020 and 80% by 2050
Renewable Energy Policy
• Renewable Fuels (RFS): 5% by 2013
• Renewable Generation (RPS): 15% by 2020
Renewable Energy Targets (Gov. Patrick)
• Deploy 250 MW of PV by 2017
• Deploy 2000 MW of wind by 2020
Efficiency & Supply Policy
• Reduce total consumption by 10% by 2017 and
building fossil fuel use by 10% by 2020
• Meet 25% of electric load with demand-side measures
by 2020 (but net-metered generation is capped)
Massachusetts State House

6. CIRenew “Beyond Cape Wind” Process &
CIGoGreen Goals
• “Beyond Cape Wind” Process brings stakeholders to table
– “Beyond” = in addition to … or instead of Cape Wind
• Facilitated activities spark dialogue and establish “Points of
Consensus”
– Control costs, improve security, increase independence, create
jobs, protect character, reduce emissions
– Maximize conservation and efficiency, increase reliance on
renewables, avoid nuclear and coal, localize benefits
• Visioning establishes long-term goals
– Reduce direct fossil fuel use for heating and transport by
50%, relative to baseline (2007)
– Harness local renewable resources to meet 100% of net
annual electricity needs
• Cape & Islands Go Green (CIGoGreen) report provides
qualitative action plans and identifies near-term priorities
• EPRI-funded Technology Strategy project defines immediate
research, development, demonstration, and deployment
(RDD&D) needs and quantitative action plans
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Cape & Islands
Renewable Energy
Collaborative,
“See I Renew”
Cape & Islands Go Green,
“See I Go Green!”

7. CIGoGreen Goals – Technology Implications
• Reduce direct fossil fuel use for heating and
transport by 50%, relative to baseline
– Future consumption, in terms of energy content
(MMBtu), is capped based on 2007 use
– Conservation, efficiency, and fuel switching are
required across both sectors
– Fuel switching options include lower-carbon fossil
fuels, renewables, and electrification
• Harness local renewable resources to meet
100% of net annual electricity needs
– Future consumption is not capped
– Conservation, efficiency, and net-metered generation
are needed to reduce needs
– Large-scale renewables deployment is required
– Load growth is necessary to allow for electrification
and help decarbonize transport and heating sectors

8. Technology Strategy Elements

9. Inventory
• Energy Supply & Use
– Fossil Fuels
– Nuclear
– Renewables
– Canal & SEMASS Plants
• Energy-Only CO2 Emissions
• Energy Prices & Bills
• Primary Sources
– EPRI
– NStar, National Grid, Cape Light Compact, ISO-NE
– Vineyard Energy Project, Mirant, Cape Air, Mass Coastal Railroad,
Cape Power Systems
– MTC RET, DOER, RMV, DOR, DEP
– U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Census Bureau
Cape & Islands Total Energy by Sector & Source,
2007 (MMBtu)
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
1
Electricity Transportation Heating Canal Plant

10. 2007 Inventory – Cape & Islands Dependence
Fossil Fuels - 91%
1. Gasoline
2. Natural gas
3. Heating oil
4. Diesel
5. Aviation
6. Propane
Nuclear Power – 4%
Renewables – 5%
1. Bioenergy
2. Hydro
3. Wind
4. Solar
Cape & Islands Energy Technology Strategy:
Extent of Dependence, 2007
91%
4% 5%
Fossil
Nuclear
Renewables
Fuels derived from crude oil supply vehicles,
ferries, and planes; heat homes; run power
plants …

11. 2007 Inventory – Cape & Islands Consumption
Energy Consumption
• Per capita – 6,100 kgoe
– Less than US (8,367 kgoe)
– Greater than Massachusetts (5,775 kgoe)
– 3 times the world average (2,000 kgoe)
• Total (60.9 TBtu) exceeds that of entire nations in developing world
Energy Use (KTOE)
Population
Cape & Islands
Congo
Cape & Islands
Congo
Credits: WRI, CIA

12. 2007 Inventory – Cape & Islands Emissions
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
• Per capita - 16.0 MT
– Greater than Massachusetts
– Less than United States (19.1 MT)
– Global Top 20
• Total (3.9 million MT) exceeds that of many large, undeveloped countries
Credit: Wikipedia Commons based 2006 CDIAC/UN Data
These figures are for energy consumption only; they
do not reflect life-cycle emissions associated with
resource use, emissions from Canal Plant, emissions
attributable to combustion of MSW, etc.

13. Greening Transport: Major Challenges
Big Numbers
• 2007: ~250,000 LDVs
• 2020: ~300,000 LDVs
Slow Turnover
• Average vehicle lifetime: >10 years
Other Barriers
• Limitations of current technologies and
fuels
• Consumer desires - “Cash for Clunkers”
experience
• Mixed signals - capital costs vs. life-cycle
savings
• Auto-centric culture
• Chicken vs. egg for advanced technologies
50% Reduction Target: 10.9 TBtu

14. Greening Transport: Technology Priorities
High-Efficiency Vehicles
• Gas-Electric Hybrids
• Diesels
• Diesel Hybrids
Biofuels
• Biodiesel
• Advanced Ethanol with Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFVs)
Electric Vehicles
• Plug-In Hybrids
• All-Electric Vehicles
Car-Free Travel
• Passenger Rail
• Intermodal Transit
• Green Growth

15. Greening Transport: Conclusions
50% Scenario
• CAFE standards, gas-electric
hybrids, clean diesels, and
FFVs are important but
insufficient
• Greening growth has little
impact in developed areas
• Broad portfolio of new
technologies needed
– High-efficiency LDVs
– Advanced biofuels
– Plug hybrids and all-electrics
– Car-free travel
– Efficiency/biofuels in trucking,
air, rail, marine, etc.
Cape & Islands Energy Technology Strategy:
Possible Mix of Light-Duty Vehicles for 50%
Fossil Fuel Reduction
25%
20%
20%
25%
8% 2%
Plug Hybrid E85 Biodiesel Hybrid Internal Combustion Car Free
Progress depends on major
technology advances, plus local
abilities to plan for and
accelerate deployment.

16. Greening Buildings: Major Challenges
Inefficient Stock
• Tens of thousands of buildings
were constructed years ago, for
seasonal living, and/or to
inadequate standards
Inadequate Capacity
• Turning energy audits into action a
challenge due to institutional,
financing, and workforce limitations
Other Barriers
• Mixed signals – installation costs
vs. life-cycle savings
• Split incentives
• Sole-source contracting in
efficiency programs
50% Reduction Target: 10.1 TBtu

17. Greening Buildings: Technology Priorities
Building Envelope
• Air Sealing & Insulation
• Windows & Doors
• Deep Retrofits
Heating Systems
• Replacements
• Low-Carbon Fuel Switch
• Cogeneration
Bioheat
• Biodiesel
• Wood & Pellets
Solar
• Hot Water
• Heating
Electrification
• Geothermal Heat
Pumps
• Air-Source Heat
Pumps

18. Greening Buildings: Conclusions
FOSSIL FUEL REDUCTION “WEDGES”
Technology Quantity
Building Envelope & Heating 125,000+
Biodiesel Blend in Heating Oil 30,000
Solar Thermal (DHW) 25,000
Solar Thermal (Heating & DHW) 8,000
Air-Source Heat Pump 8,000
Biomass (Pellet/Wood Stoves) 6,000
Deep Retrofits 6,000
Geothermal Heat Pump 2,000
50% Scenario
• 30% – air sealing,
weatherization, heating
system upgrades in every
building
• 8% – large (20%+) biodiesel
fraction in all remaining
heating oil
• 12% – six additional
“wedges” Challenge lies not in technology
but in deployment; innovative
institutions, policies, and funding
and financing methods needed.

19. Greening Power: Major Challenges
Technology Limitations
• Supply, delivery, utilization are not smart
• Siting projects is extremely difficult
• Wind and solar have low energy density
• Biomass fuel supply insufficient
• Offshore wind limited to shallow water at
present
• Wave and tidal not commercially
available today
• Costs exceed those fossil generation

20. Greening Power: Technology Priorities
Efficiency
• End Uses
• Demand Response
Offshore Wind
• Shallow Water
• Transitional
• Deep Water
Wind
• Supply Side
• Consumer Sited
Bioenergy
• Landfill/Digester Gas
• Waste to Energy
Solar
• Consumer Sited
• Supply Side
Cogeneration
• Fossil
• Biopower
Ocean
• Tidal
• Wave
Green Grid
• T&D & Interfaces
• Fast-Response Supply
• Storage

21. Greening Power: Conclusions
• Conservation, efficiency,
solar, and onshore wind
are not enough
• Cape Wind meets needs
only if sales decline by
about 25%
• “Beyond Cape Wind”
deployment required …
• To meet stable or
growing load
• To electrify transport:
(~100 MW for 25%)
• To achieve state goal:
“2000 MW by 2020”
Challenge lies both in technology
and in deployment; community
benefits are critical.

22. “Visions of Success” - 6/18/09 Forum
• Community-based siting, planning, construction,
and operations
• Creation of jobs and additional economic activity
• Beneficial effects on security, climate change
issues
• Stabilization/reduction of electric rates through
long-term contracts
• Minimal or no adverse impacts on community
character and cultural values
• No adverse impacts on navigation and
sustainable fishing
• Protection of habitats and species
• Positive effects on real estate market and
recreational fishing
• Revenues for addressing energy justice and
environmental issues
Talisman Energy
Greening Power – Community Benefits

23. Greening Power: Offshore Planning
• Federal offshore renewables task force
established for waters outside state limit
• State Ocean Management Plan provides
opportunities to determine siting and
sizing and maximize community benefit
for projects within state waters
• Cape Cod Commission has established
Ocean Management Planning DCPC –
24 turbines allowed (85 to 120 MW)
• Provisional area, innovation zone present
opportunities
• Public outreach, education, engagement,
empowerment must be part of future
decision-making

24. Greening Power - Conclusions
• Community-
scale projects
could meet
current needs
of most
individual
towns and the
islands
• Localizing
benefits is
critical for
future projects
in state waters
and beyond
Community-Sized Projects Reduce Economies of Scale
Cape & Islands Energy Technology Strategy: Offshore Wind
Turbines for Local Electricity Independence (3.6-MW Units; CF = 38%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
BARNSTABLE
BOURNE
BREWSTER
CHATHAM
DENNIS
EASTHAM
FALMOUTH
HARWICH
MASHPEE
ORLEANS
PROVINCETOWN
SANDWICH
TRURO
WELLFLEET
YARMOUTH
NANTUCKET
VINEYARD
NumberofTurbines

25. Greening Power: Electrifying Transport
Credits: Alison Alessi, GM, GE
Plug Hybrids & All-Electric Vehicles: 25% of
Personal Vehicle Use in 2020
• Nantucket: 12,500 MWh
• ~4 MW offshore wind
• Martha’s Vineyard: 18,000 MWh
• ~6 MW offshore wind
• Cape Cod: 265,000 MWh
• ~80 MW offshore wind
Individuals: 4400 kWh - 14,000 miles
• 3.6 kW of rooftop PV
Benefits: “fuel” cost savings of ~25 to 75%,
no reliance on imports, no emissions

26. Greening the Cape & Islands – Top 10 Projects
& Initiatives
Greening Buildings
1. Building Envelope: Promote air sealing, insulation, and sustained action
2. Heating Plant: Promote retrofits and lower-carbon fuel switching
3. Solar Thermal: Promote domestic hot water and heating uses
4. Electrification: Promote air-source and geothermal heat pumps
Greening Transportation
5. Biofuels: Deploy infrastructure, explore algal biofuel production
6. Electrification: Demonstrate charging stations at transport terminals
7. Car-Free Travel: Restore passenger rail service to North Falmouth and Hyannis
Greening Power
8. Offshore Renewables: Secure benefits from Cape Wind, develop community-
based projects, and demonstrate advanced technologies
9. Intelligrid: Integrate end uses and renewables with delivery infrastructure
10. Infrastructure: Incorporate advanced technologies in wastewater and solid
waste management
Credits: Joan Muller, Toyota, BusinessWire, Chevy, GE, MCT, Pelamis

27. Greening the Cape & Islands – Benefits
• Huge Progress Toward
Independence – 70%
• Major Cut in Carbon
Emissions – 61%
• Large Reductions in Energy
Bills
• Price Stabilization, Insulation
Against Fuel & Carbon Markets
• Job Creation

28. Recommendations for Strategic Energy/Climate
Planning
1. Engage stakeholders, experts, and public – Educate and empower
constituents
2. Set energy and climate objectives – Adopt vision and stretch goals
3. Get organized – Establish committee or task force addressing
energy/climate response
4. Start counting – Develop comprehensive energy/emissions inventories
across all sectors and at different scales
5. Explore opportunities – Evaluate conservation, efficiency, fuel switching,
and renewable generation options and assess quantitative impacts
6. Identify priorities – Define discrete projects and initiatives
7. Engage stakeholders, experts, and public – Take coordinated action

29. Questions?
Contact Information:
Chris Powicki
Principal, Water Energy & Ecology Information Services
Brewster, MA
774.487.4614
chrisp@weeinfo.com