This document discusses trends in London's economy and labor market from 2014-2020. It finds that while gaps in employment rates between advantaged and disadvantaged groups have closed in recent years, challenges remain. Maintaining positive trends will require improving childcare and part-time work availability, education quality, skills training aligned with growing industries, labor mobility, making work pay through welfare reform, and managing impacts of policy changes on vulnerable groups. The economy is shifting toward higher-skilled, service-oriented jobs requiring ongoing support for disadvantaged Londoners.

1. What will London’s economy
and labour market and look
like in 2014-2020?
Paul Bivand
Inclusion

2. Will positive trends continue?

3. Gaps have been closing

4. And for disadvantaged groups
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
May
2007
May
2008
May
2009
May
2010
May
2011
May
2012
London employment rate Lone parent
BAME Disabled
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
May
2007
May
2008
May
2009
May
2010
May
2011
May
2012
London employment rate Lone parent
BAME Disabled

5. London’s gaps in JSA off-flows
have closed
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-09
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
London UK
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-09
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
London Gap

6. Changing employment

7. … changing structure demands higher
qualifications
8% have no
qualifications
48% have
degrees (32%
in UK)

8. Jobs to 2020
People services
Creative Digital
Science &
Technology
Greater
London
Inner London East London Newham
Increase Increase Increase Increase
Code 2nd Tier Description Total % Total % Total % Total %
1.2 Nursing & medical Subjects/Vocations 23,786 13% 8,968 14% 3,952 14% 618 13%
13.1 Teaching and Lecturing 21,481 12% 8,524 13% 3,577 13% 504 12%
15.4 Marketing and Sales 5,247 12% 2,704 13% 679 11% 76 8%
1.3 Health and Social Care 11,116 11% 4,741 12% 1,702 10% 219 9%
1.5 Child Development and Well Being 32,098 11% 13,612 12% 5,297 11% 760 10%
5.3 Urban, Rural and Regional Planning 14,959 11% 8,267 13% 1,877 9% 188 6%
11.2 Sociology and Social Policy 4,308 10% 1,934 12% 640 10% 83 8%
9.3 Media and Communication 13,556 10% 7,897 12% 1,916 9% 188 7%
1.1 Medicine and Dentistry 5,153 9% 2,452 11% 806 9% 98 7%
2.1 Science 5,038 8% 2,518 10% 688 7% 96 6%
1.4 Public Services 3,296 8% 1,278 8% 478 7% 47 4%
4.1 Engineering 4,699 8% 2,650 11% 560 6% 64 4%
14.1 Foundations for Learning and Life 1,006 7% 427 8% 155 7% 20 5%
15.5 Law and Legal Services 2,182 6% 1,593 9% 270 6% 17 3%
8.1 Sport, Leisure and Recreation 2,566 6% 1,529 8% 351 5% 3 0%
14.2 Preparation for Work 3,691 6% 1,940 7% 493 5% 61 3%
15.1 Accounting and Finance 9,127 5% 6,478 9% 956 4% 43 1%
9.1 Performing Arts 2,679 5% 1,778 8% 394 5% 20 2%
9.2 Crafts, Creative Arts, and Design 8,298 5% 5,454 8% 1,162 4% 101 3%
6.1 ICT Practitioners 5,663 5% 3,218 7% 594 3% 108 4%
15.3 Business Management 25,161 4% 16,540 7% 2,682 3% 215 2%
7.1 Retailing and Wholesaling 9,059 4% 5,649 7% 1,257 4% 202 3%
12.2
Other Languages, Literature and
Culture 1,831 4% 1,141 6% 292 4% 38 3%
7.4 Hospitality and Catering 2,377 3% 1,305 4% 265 2% 21 1%
4.2 Manufacturing Technologies 11,173 3% 6,736 6% 834 2% 121 1%
8.2 Travel and Tourism 1,914 3% 1,133 5% 257 3% 35 2%
4.3
Transportation
Operations/Maintenance 1,589 3% 1,077 5% 77 1% 5 0%
6.2 ICT for Users 1,469 2% 1,266 4% 79 1% -16 -1%
3.2 Horticulture and Forestry 79 1% 84 2% 15 1% 5 4%
15.2 Administration 136 0% 704 3% -59 -1% -23 -2%
5.2 Building and Construction -6,469 -4% -1,750 -4% -1,319 -4% -218 -4%

9. The supply-side challenge ...

10. 1. Female employment: childcare and part-
time jobs
Employment rate of women with dependent children
Note: Head of family or spouse only, includesfull-time students
Source: Labour Force Survey, Oct-Dec, 2007-2011
74.2 71.3
86.9
58.3
47.6
73.1
65.7
90.0
72.4
57.3
Not parents- Men Not parents-
Women
Couple parents -
Men
Couple parents -
Women
Lone parents- All
London Rest of UK

11. 2. Continue to improve schools
London is ahead on
% attaining 5 A-C
GCSEs but varies
by income

12. 3. Improve Further Education
 Curriculum should focus on subject sector areas that offer
quantity (the scale of jobs) and growth (net growth in jobs)
opportunities:
– Health and Social Care
– Marketing and Sales
– Building and Construction
– Business Management
– Accounting and Finance
– Manufacturing Technologies; and
– Child Development and Well Being
 Employers, continue to cite various skills shortages – the most
common being management and leadership skills; and ICT and
communication skills.
Advice to a London FE College:

13. 4. Mobility: one and many labour
markets
Greater
London 3.7
million jobs
Inner London
1.5 million jobs
East London
0.6 million jobs
Newham 91
thousand jobs
Greater London
72,000
vacancies
Inner London
31,000
vacancies
East London
14,000
vacancies
Newham 5,000
vacancies

14. 5. Making Work Pay in London
impact of welfare reform
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Banking, finance & insurance
Transport & communication
Manufacturing
Public admin., education & health
Construction
Other services
Distribution, hotels & restaurants
London UK
Percent of those in work earning below the living wage by industry
(2012)

15. 6. Dynamic or insecure?
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
London UK
Movers between unemployment and low pay as a proportion
of the workforce

16. 7. Changing employment patterns
of mothers
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Couple
Mother
Lone
Mother
Couple
Mother
Lone
Mother
Couple
Mother
Lone
Mother
Couple
Mother
Lone
Mother
Couple
Mother
Lone
Mother
Level 4 + Level 4 + Level 3 Level 3 Level 2 Level 2 Level 1 Level 1 None None
Full Time Part Time Mini

17. Welfare Reform
Situation of (claimants) on the whole shall not be
made really
or apparently
so eligible as the situation of
the independent labourer of the lowest class
Royal Commission on the Poor Laws, 1834
Or, in modern rephrasing
Making Work Pay
But, not just money, also conditionality

18. Impacts of welfare reform
Many reports – huge impacts
Particularly disabled people
But employment rates rising for disadvantaged
However
– labour markets in Outer London more ‘normal for
UK’
– higher part-time working
– higher proportions of jobs taken by lower-qualified

19. Tasks for 2014-20
Mitigating impacts of welfare reform
Helping people manage work with
personal circumstances
Labour mobility
London’s success built by migration – in
and out
– Internal UK
– EU
– International non-EU