Ethan Mansfield - Southern Idaho Economic Trends
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Ethan Mansfield of Idaho Department of Labor presentation on economic trends in Southern Idaho Southern Idaho presented at Southern Idaho Economic Development Organizations 15th Annual Summit.
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Ethan Mansfield - Southern Idaho Economic Trends
- 2. Outline • What Does SIEDO’s 6-county region look like now? • What is it projected to look like in the future? • What are the Economic Development policy changes going forward that might affect the region’s position in the future?
- 4. Source: EMSI 8.6 3.0 9.7 3.7 10 4.9 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Unemployment Rates SIEDO Region, Idaho and United States 2007-2016 SIEDO Idaho US
- 5. Jobs and Wages • Population = 169,737 (10% of Idaho) • Idaho = 1,654,930 • Total Jobs = 85,356 (11% of Idaho) • Idaho = 784,609 • Average Wage per Job = $31,535 • Idaho = $36,781 • Per Capita Income = $37,918 • Idaho = $36,734 • 2011-2016 Job Growth = 9,745 • Idaho = 85,459 • 2011-2015 Percent Job Growth = 13% • Idaho = 12%
- 6. Description 2016 Jobs 2016 Wages 2011 - 2016 Change 2011 - 2016 % Change Expected Change Competitive Effect 2016 Location Quotient Crop and Animal Production 13,752 $31,249 988 7% (205) 1,194 13.31 Government (incl. Public Ed) 11,296 $29,521 1,045 9% 522 523 0.86 Manufacturing 9,333 $43,421 1,044 11% (79) 1,122 1.38 Health Care and Social Assistance 9,153 $34,687 2,618 29% 1,768 849 0.85 Retail Trade 8,836 $25,676 1,202 14% 617 585 0.99 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 5,648 $19,061 1,211 21% 817 394 1.05 Accommodation and Food Services 5,355 $13,346 865 16% 544 321 0.74 Transportation and Warehousing 4,460 $38,227 626 14% 390 235 1.56 Construction 3,472 $33,451 484 14% 345 139 0.75 Wholesale Trade 3,342 $46,813 296 9% 288 8 1.02 Other Services (except Public Administration) 3,229 $22,275 602 19% 279 322 0.79 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 2,254 $42,932 267 12% 372 (105) 0.41 Finance and Insurance 1,584 $44,655 25 2% 124 (99) 0.48 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 893 $12,055 138 15% 96 42 0.62 Information 765 $39,873 38 5% 23 15 0.49 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 678 $28,189 20 3% 37 (16) 0.49 Educational Services 464 $17,138 102 22% 67 36 0.22 Utilities 463 $68,907 43 9% (1) 45 1.52 Management of Companies and Enterprises 204 $55,973 3 1% 18 (15) 0.17 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 174 $31,876 10 6% 32 (23) 0.47
- 11. 25% 61% 15% 22% 64% 15% 19% 66% 15% 0-14 15-64 65+ Age Distribution 2015 SIEDO Region Idaho United States
- 13. 8% 27% 41% 17% 6% 8% 28% 43% 16% 5% 14-21 22-34 35-54 55-64 65-99 WORKFORCE BY AGE COHORT SIEDO Idaho SIEDO Region: • 23% of the working population is above the age of 55 • 6% of the working population is above the age of 65 Idaho State: • 21% of the working population is above the age 55 • 5% of the working population is above the age of 65
- 14. 9% 9% 22% 14% 14% 25% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0-14 15-64 65+ Projected Growth By Age Group 2015- 2025 SIEDO Region Idaho
- 15. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2025 Projected Job Growth* Labor Force Growth** Workforce Gap 13,687 5,101 8,586
- 16. NAICS Description 2016 Jobs 2015 - 2025 Change 2015 - 2025 % Change 62 Health Care and Social Assistance 9,153 2,831 32% 56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 5,648 1,808 36% 44 Retail Trade 8,836 1,437 17% 72 Accommodation and Food Services 5,355 1,319 27% 31 Manufacturing 9,333 1,111 12% 90 Government (incl. Public Ed) 11,296 1,109 10% 11 Crop and Animal Production 13,752 939 7% 48 Transportation and Warehousing 4,460 790 19% 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 3,229 649 21% 23 Construction 3,472 444 13% 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 893 324 47% 42 Wholesale Trade 3,342 323 10% 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 2,254 315 14% 61 Educational Services 464 135 32% 51 Information 765 57 8% 22 Utilities 463 47 10% 52 Finance and Insurance 1,584 36 2% 21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 174 18 11% 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 204 8 4% 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 678 (12) (2%)
- 17. Migration • Step One: Why do people move? • Market Reasons • Job Opportunities • Non-market Reasons • Family • Cultural Amenities • Natural Amenities • Schools • Both Market and Non-market factors are Economic Reasons
- 18. Have you seen Clif Bar’s Instagram? • https://www.instagram.com/clifbarcompany/?hl=en • The Clif Bar Team Biker in Twin Falls
- 19. “The Power of Place-making” • Young, Talented People like Diversity in: • Housing Stock • Transportation Modes • Public and Private Spaces • Restaurants and Bars • Trail Uses • Population
- 20. What Factors Contribute to Unequal Economic Development across Space? • Natural Amenities • Cultural Amenities (Schools) • Human Capital (Workforce) (Schools) • Infrastructure (Schools) • Jobs follow people vs. people follow jobs? • More support for jobs follow people in rural areas; Magic Valley is exceptional • Tax Policy?
- 21. Mike Brown – Local Construct • A number of cities have been able to attract talent by quality urban planning. The most successful cities in the past years — I’d say Seattle and Portland are awesome examples, off the top of my head, and Nashville’s another good example — they’ve really been focused on having a progressive plan and creating a livable downtown. Those are the things that attract talent.
- 22. How Can we Help? • Attract and Retain Talented Workers (or any workers) • Choose Idaho campaign • Local Policy that encourages workers to stay and attracts new ones (i.e. what does your target audience want in a community?) • Create Talent Pipelines within the community • Amenities Matter to Migration • What does a new generation look for? • Infrastructure is important • Physical Infrastructure • Roads, Railways, Air Service • Virtual Infrastructure • Broadband
- 23. Ryan Armbruster – Elam & Burke • I think a complete look-see at what [other] local communities … do is going to be tough because if you look at some of the other legislative provisions that have come into play over the last five to six years, it’s all gone the other way. The legislature has come down and said [local communities] can’t regulate Uber, they can’t regulate firearms, and it’s just restricting what you at the local level, [you] who are voting for your councilmen or your county commissioners, can do because the state has preempted so many of the important parts that make communities local.
- 24. Thank You! • Ethan Mansfield • ethan.mansfield@labor.Idaho.gov • Sources: Economic Modeling Specialists International; US Census Bureau, County Quickfacts and Quarterly Workforce Indicators; Idaho Department of Labor, Population Projections.