Climate Impacts on Forests and Ecosystems
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Presentation from a Cary Institute of Ecosystems Studies public forum on climate change by Gary Lovett, Forest Ecologist, Cary Institute.
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Climate Impacts on Forests and Ecosystems
- 1. Climate Impacts on Forests Gary Lovett Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Science and Management Forum: Climate Change in the Hudson Valley
- 2. Data from Gosz et al 1978. Diagram from Molles 2006.
- 3. Data from Gosz et al 1978. Diagram from Molles 2006.
- 4. There are known knowns . These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns . There are things we don't know we don't know. Donald Rumsfeld
- 8. Snow Cover Will Be Reduced Area with snow on the ground for at least 30 days during the winter Source: Union of Concerned Scientists 2007 Known unknown : What are the cascading effects of reduced snow cover on trees, soil, and mammals?
- 9. Tree Species Will Shift Northward Predicted Change in Forest Types under Future Climate Maps from Iverson and Prasad (2001) Known unknown : Can species ranges change fast enough to keep up with climate?
- 10. Bird species will change along with the forests From UCS 2007
- 11. Photo: Doug Burns Local Vegetation Change: Good-bye to mountaintop spruce-fir forests in the Catskills Bicknell’s thrush Blackpoll warbler
- 12. From Vitale and Schlesinger 2011 Some bird species are arriving in Dutchess County earlier May 1 Apr 1 Mar1 Known unknown : Will synchrony be maintained among leaves, bugs and birds?
- 14. Hurricane Irene, 8/26/2011, NASA Goddard Source : NEFA Hubbard Brook, NH, 1998 Wild Card: Storms
- 15. Source: Union of Concerned Scientists
Notas do Editor
- To those of us who study forests here at the Institute, a forest looks lik ethis. This is the “wiring diagram” for a forest. And this is just a simplification, need to add nutrients and the food web. My point is not to try to explain this to you– you’d need a lot more coffeee for thst, but just to say that every single one of these boxes and arrows is affected by climate change. And they are all affected independently, so figuring out how a forest will respond is a complicated business.
- To those of us who study forests here at the Institute, a forest looks lik ethis. This is the “wiring diagram” for a forest. And this is just a simplification, need to add nutrients and the food web. My point is not to try to explain this to you– you’d need a lot more coffeee for thst, but just to say that every single one of these boxes and arrows is affected by climate change. And they are all affected independently, so figuring out how a forest will respond is a complicated business.