Mais conteúdo relacionado Semelhante a Presentation for GHX on Cost to Serve (20) Presentation for GHX on Cost to Serve1. Where are we on the Journey?
A Closer Look at Healthcare
Providers
3. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 3
Supply Chain Insights is focused on delivering
independent, actionable and objective
advice for supply chain leaders. A company
dedicated to research, turn to us when you
want the latest insights on supply chain trends,
technologies to know and metrics that matter.
About Us
6. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 6
Supply Chain Organization:
Three-Quarters Have a Formal Supply Chain Organization
7. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 7
Supply Chain Organization:
7 Functions Report Through It on Average;
Reports Primarily to Chief Financial Officer
8. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 8
Supply Chain Organization:
Purchasing is Primarily Done Corporate-Wide
11. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 11
Value Analysis Group:
Supply Chain is Primary Leader;
Changing/Adding Products are Most Common Decisions
15. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 15
SHARED
VISION
+ SKILLS + INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + PLAN + LEADERSHIP = CHANGE
SKILLS + INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + PLAN = CONFUSION
SHARED
VISION
+ INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + PLAN + LEADERSHIP = ANXIETY
SHARED
VISION
+ SKILLS + INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + LEADERSHIP =
FALSE
STARTS
SHARED
VISION
+ SKILLS + INCENTIVE + PLAN + LEADERSHIP = FRUSTRATION
SHARED
VISION
+ SKILLS + RESOURCES + PLAN + LEADERSHIP =
GRADUAL
CHANGE
Source: J.P. Kotter
Collaboration: The Right Stuff
16. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 16
Applying the
Supply Chain Index to Healthcare
A formulaic representation of
how companies are trading off
growth, profitability, cycle and
complexity performance on
selected supply chain financial
metrics against market
valuation.
#sciwebinar
17. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 17
Value Chain
Metrics That Matter by Industry
Medical Care Industry Medical Distribution Pharmaceutical Major
Free Cash Flow Ratio Operating Margin Free Cash Flow Ratio
Working Capital Ratio Return on Invested Capital Return on Invested Capital
Operating Margin Free Cash Flow Ratio Altman Z
SG&A to COGS Ratio Working Capital Ratio Current Ratio
YoY Revenue Growth Return on Net Assets
Days of Payables
Outstanding
Current Ratio DPO/DSO Ratio
Days of Sales Outstanding Current Ratio
Days of Inventory Days of Inventory
Days of Payables
Outstanding
18. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 18
• Redesign for value
• Focus on outcomes
• Management of end-to-end processes
Summary
19. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 19
Our Focus
2-DAY PUBLIC
TRAINING
Princeton – June 24-25
Minneapolis – August 8-9
$1500
GLOBAL
SUMMIT
PODCASTS
www.supplychaininsights.com
#sciwebinar
20. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 20
PAST SUPPLY CHAIN INDEX WEBINARS:
AVAILABLE ON DEMAND
• From September 24, 2012:
The Supply Chain Index, 20 Years in the Making:
A Focus on Process Industries
• From October 26, 2012:
The Supply Chain Index, 20 Years in the Making:
A Focus on Discrete Industries
Webinars
www.supplychaininsights.com/upcoming-webinars
#sciwebinar
UPCOMING WEBINARS
• May 23 rd: Supply Chain Index, Update, Part II
• June 13th: Sales and Operations Planning: State
of the Union
• July 11th: Big Data Supply Chains and the Future
of Analytics
• August 15th: State of Supply Chain Talent:
Missing Link in the Supply Chain
• August 29th: Digital Manufacturing
21. In Search of Supply Chain
Excellence
Lora Cecere of Supply Chain Insights
22. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 22
Supply Chain Insights is focused on delivering
independent, actionable and objective
advice for supply chain leaders. A company
dedicated to research, turn to us when you
want the latest insights on supply chain trends,
technologies to know and metrics that matter.
About Us
25. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 25
This is the new bible for all supply chain
executives. It provides an insider’s
perspective that will prove incredibly
valuable to even the most grizzled
supply chain veteran. This is the next
must-have business book.
--Bruce Richardson, Chief Enterprise
Strategist, Salesforce.com
Today, the worlds of social business and
supply chain management have many
degrees of separation. I enjoyed working
with Lora to understand what the future
transformation of digital marketing to
digital business could look like.
--Jeremiah Owyang, Research Director,
Altimeter
Second Printing of Bricks Matter:
14 Five-Star Reviews on Amazon
Book can be ordered from Amazon.com in Hardcopy or Digital Format
26. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 26
Right Use
of Assets
Expansion into
BRIC Countries
(Brazil, Russia,
India and China)
Supply Chain
Process
Knowledge
28. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 28
Current State
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright 2013
30. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 30
Source: Supply Chain Insights, Corporate Annual Reports 2000-2011
Inventory Performance
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Consumer Packaged Goods 59.0 57.0 62.0 64.0 67.0 67.0 68.0 70.0 70.0 64.0 64.0 67.0
Chemical 71.5 71.9 78.2 75.1 62.0 70.3 68.1 64.3 64.3 78.6 72.9 72.8
Pharma 122.2 133.7 190.1 171.0 184.3 175.6 167.8 149.8 154.9 198.7 154.3 131.8
High Tech 93.1 57.6 46.5 48.5 35.9 37.3 43.8 36.8 34.6 41.3 34.8 30.4
Average 86.5 80.0 94.2 89.6 87.3 87.5 86.9 80.2 81.0 95.6 81.5 75.5
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
DaysofInventory
31. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 31
Perform better than peer group
Improve year-over-year results
Alignment in metrics
Delivery of performance against the business
strategy
Consistency in results
Be a leader in managing trade-offs
What Is Supply Chain Excellence?
#sciwebinar
34. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 34
A Supply Chain
is a Complex System
with Complex Processes
with Increasing Complexity
35. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 35
The Effective Frontier
Profitable Growth
Revenue Cost of Goods
Working Capital
Corporate Social Responsibility
R&D Strategy and Investment Asset Strategy and Investment
Forecast Accuracy Customer Service Inventory
Channel Strategy Product and
Service Portfolio
Supplier Strategy
Sales
Policies
Distribution
Policies
Manufacturing
Policies
Logistics
Policies
Procurement
Policies
Returns Backorders First Pass Yield Empty Miles Material Yield
42. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 42
Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee
(2002-2011) SUMMARY SLIDE
43. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 43
Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Operating Margin
(2000-2011)
44. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 44
Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin
(2000-2011) SUMMARY SLIDE
46. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 46
Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin
(2000-2011) SUMMARY SLIDE
47. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 47
Healthcare Value Chain:
Financial Metrics
#sciwebinar
50. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 50
Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin (2000-2011)
SUMMARY SLIDE
56. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 56
Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Operating Margin
(2000-2003)
57. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 57
Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Operating Margin
(2004-2007)
58. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 58
Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Operating Margin (2008-
2011)
60. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 60
Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Operating Margin (2000-
2012) SUMMARY SLIDE
61. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 61
Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee (2002-
2003)
62. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 62
Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee (2004-
2007)
63. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 63
Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee (2008-
2011)
65. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 65
Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee (2002-
2012) SUMMARY SLIDE
71. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 71
Publishing Two eBooks in
2013 on Supply Chain
Metrics That Matter
– Consumer Value Networks
– Industrial Value Networks
2013 Publications
72. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 72
Introducing the
Supply Chain Index
A formulaic representation of
how companies are trading off
growth, profitability, cycle and
complexity performance on
selected supply chain financial
metrics against market
valuation.
#sciwebinar
73. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 73
1. To better understand which supply chain metrics
matter to corporate balance sheet performance in
public markets. We want to help leaders better align
supply chain and financial performance.
2. To create an objective system for evaluating and
ranking supply chains by industry peer group.
3. To connect financial performance with supply chain
excellence as measured through quantitative
surveys in an effort to better identify and define best
practices across industry groups.
Why Did We Do This?
#sciwebinar
74. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 74
• What it is: A way to understand the impact of
companies’ supply chain (relative to peers
within an industry sector) to market
capitalization based a set of preselected supply
chain ratio metrics.
• What it is NOT: A way to evaluate overall
company performance or compare the model
results to actual market capitalization.
What It Is. What It Is Not.
#sciwebinar
75. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 75
Step 1: Located data sources
Step 2: Selected core supply chain ratios from over 50 financial metrics
Step 3: Identified meaningful metrics per industry using regression analysis
among selected ratios
Step 4: Constructed industry equation based on correlation of industry
metrics to market capitalization values
Step 5: Determined company rankings within industry by applying 2012
company results to industry equation
Step 6: Analysis of peer group companies over the last decade
Step 7: Correlations to supply chain practices, technologies and
organizational design
Supply Chain Index Methodology
#sciwebinar
76. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 76
– Market capitalization data of public companies
(Ycharts.com)
– Industry peer groups defined by Morningstar Sector
(36)
– Financial ratios built from balance sheet and income
statement data collected from OneSource
– Analysis of quarterly data using R (frequency 2006Q1
to 2012Q4)
Step 1: Located Data Sources
#sciwebinar
77. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 77
Step 2: Selected 14 Core
Supply Chain Ratios to Study
Financial Metrics
Growth Profitability Cycle Complexity
Common Shares Cash Cash-to-Cash Cycle Altman Z
Employee Growth Cash Change in Period Days of Finished Goods Capital Turnover
Employees Cash on Hand Days of Inventory Current Ratio
Market Capitalization Cash Ratio TTM Days of Payables Outstanding Quick Ratio
R&D Margin Cash Ratio Quarter Days of Raw Materials Return on Assets
R&D Ratio Cash Ratio Year Days of Sales Outstanding Return on Equity
R&D to COGS Ratio Cost of Goods Sold Days of Work in Progress Return on Invested Capital
Revenue EBITDA DPO/DSO Return on Net Assets
Revenue Growth Free Cash Flow Ratio Finished Goods Inventory Revenue per Employee
Revenue Growth TTM Gross Margin Inventory Working Capital Ratio
Revenue TTM Gross Profit Inventory Turns
SG&A Margin Net Profit Margin Receivables Turns
SG&A Ratio Operating Cash Flow Ratio Raw Materials Inventory
SG&A to COGS Ratio Operating Margin Work in Progress Inventory
OPEX Ratio
Pretax Margin
Source: Supply Chain Insights LLC
#sciwebinar
Selected Ratios
78. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 78
Step 3: Identified Industry Metrics
#sciwebinar
Market Capitalization vs. Revenue Growth
Insight: For
example,
growth did
not correlate
for chemical
companies.
79. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 79
Step 3: Identified Industry Metrics
Metrics That Matter by Industry
Mass Retail Industry
Consumer Packaged
Goods Industry
Chemical Industry
Operating Margin Operating Margin Operating Margin
Days of Inventory Days of Inventory Days of Inventory
DPO/DSO
Days of Payables
Outstanding
Days of Payables
Outstanding
Return on Invested Capital Return on Invested Capital Return on Assets
Working Capital Ratio Current Ratio
Free Cash Flow Ratio
SG&A to COGS Ratio
#sciwebinar
80. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 80
Step 4: Mass Retail Equation
#sciwebinar
Ln(market cap) = 10.41 + 52.67(OM) -34.72(WC) - 16.02(ROIC)
– 0.09(DPODSO) + 0.02(DOI)
Mass Retail Industry Equation
81. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 81
Step 5: Determined Rankings by Industry
Mass Retail Industry (2012)
#sciwebinar
83. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 83
Step 3: Identified Industry Metrics
#sciwebinar
Metrics That Matter by Industry
Mass Retail Industry
Consumer Packaged
Goods Industry
Chemical Industry
Operating Margin Operating Margin Operating Margin
Days of Inventory Days of Inventory Days of Inventory
DPO/DSO
Days of Payables
Outstanding
Days of Payables
Outstanding
Return on Invested Capital Return on Invested Capital Return on Assets
Working Capital Ratio Current Ratio
Free Cash Flow Ratio
SG&A to COGS Ratio
84. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 84
Step 4: Consumer Packaged Goods
(CPG) Equation
#sciwebinar
Ln(market cap) = 3.37 + 2.11(OM) + 1.62(FCF) – 1.29(ROIC) –
1.17ln(CR) + 0.25(SGAC) + 0.02(DPO) – 0.01(DOI)
CPG Industry Equation
85. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 85
Step 5: Determined Rankings by Industry
CPG Industry (2012)
#sciwebinar
87. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 87
Step 3: Identified Industry Metrics
#sciwebinar
Metrics That Matter by Industry
Mass Retail Industry
Consumer Packaged
Goods Industry
Chemical Industry
Operating Margin Operating Margin Operating Margin
Days of Inventory Days of Inventory Days of Inventory
DPO/DSO
Days of Payables
Outstanding
Days of Payables
Outstanding
Return on Invested Capital Return on Invested Capital Return on Assets
Working Capital Ratio Current Ratio
Free Cash Flow Ratio
SG&A to COGS Ratio
88. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 88
Step 4: Chemical Industry Equation
#sciwebinar
Ln(market cap) = 7.85(OM) – 4.84(ROA) + 1.81ln(DPO) +
0.01(DOI)
Chemical Industry Equation
89. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 89
Step 5: Determined Rankings by Industry
Chemical Industry (2012)
#sciwebinar
91. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 91
In Progress
Food Industry
#sciwebinar
Ln(market cap) = 5.57 +15.56(OM) – 7.50(ROIC) – 4.13(ROA) +
2.74(RONA) + 0.61(Z) + 0.04(DPO) – 0.04(DSO)
Food Industry Equation
92. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 92
Value Chain Relationships
Retail
(Mass
Merchant)
CPG Chemical
Equations:
Ln(market cap) =
10.41
+ 52.67(OM)
-34.72(WC)
- 16.02(ROIC)
-0.09(DPODSO)
+ 0.02(DOI)
3.37
+ 2.11(OM)
+ 1.62(FCF)
- 1.29(ROIC)
- 1.17ln(CR)
+ 0.25(SGAC)
+ 0.02(DPO)
– 0.01(DOI)
7.85(OM)
- 4.84(ROA)
+ 1.81ln(DPO)
+ 0.01(DOI)
True collaboration only happens when there is
a sustaining win-win value proposition.
93. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 93
Future Evolution
Align:
Market
Driven
Building Horizontal
Process Connectors
Continuous
Testing
Learning
Improving
In Market
Orchestrate
Demand and Supply
Resilient
Reliable
Adapt:
Demand
Driven
Efficient
Sense
Demand
and Supply
Shape
Demand and
Supply based
on Market
Absorb
Demand
Volatility
Absorb Supply
Volatility
Right Product
Right Place
Right Time
Right Cost
Cost
Procure to
pay/order to
cash
94. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 94
A network that senses demand with minimal
latency to drive a near-real time response for
demand shaping and demand translation.
What Is a Demand-driven
Value Network?
95. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 95
Rising Price of a Barrel of West Texas
Intermediate (WTI)
97. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 97
An adaptive network focused on a value-
based outcome that senses and translates
market changes (buy and sell-side markets)
bi-directionally with near-real time data
latency to align sell, deliver, make and
sourcing operations.
What Is a Market-driven Value Network?
98. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 98
E2E Order Delivery kaizen team was able to
quantify the current order processing
inefficiencies
5/21/201
3
12
32
174
Process Steps Valued by the
Customer
Necessary process steps but not
value-producing for our business
Manual intervention steps now
part of "normal"
Zero (0) orders flow through the e2e process without being manually handled!
Massive value creation potential for eliminating waste, inefficiency and re-
focusing resources on activities that actually deliver value
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Breakdown of E2E Order to Delivery
Process
% of time actually spent completing process steps
Time spent in Queues and "Do Loops"
Vast majority of time is spent on
activities that do not produce
enterprise value
>60% of order processing is spent waiting
or in inefficient manual intervention
99. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 99
26%
19% 21%
30%
26%
12% 13%
17%
26% 19%
20%
18%
11%
24%
17% 14%
13%
16%
18%
14%
18%
17%
9%
13%
12%
9%
12%
17%
10%
8%
17%
5%
13%
14%
11%
10%
15%
11% 9% 12%
18%
9%
10%
5% 4%
11%
8%
6% 7%
CPG Food+bev Electronics Semi-
conductor
Durables Process Discrete
Other
Fax
Phone
Internet orders
Customer portal
VMI/collab.
B2b (w/manual)
B2b (no manual)
Order Entry Process
CONSUMER PRODS HIGH-TECH INDUSTRIAL
101. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 101
Demand-shaping Levers
New Product Launch
Marketing
Sales Incentives
Trade Promotions
Distributor Incentives
Assortment
Price
Run-out of obsolescence or mark-
down strategies
Orchestration Levers
Market-driven Orchestration Levers
Price to Price Orchestration
Alternate Bill of Materials
Alternate Sourcing
Change in Assortment
Orchestration of Product Mix (Incent
products with less commodity
variability)
Changes in Demand Shaping
Strategies
Commodity Hedging
108. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 108
Years 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2012
RETAIL
AVERAGE
17.05% 42.46% 12.89% 8.76% 5.15%
CPG AVERAGE 2.12% 0.84% 3.91% 7.26% 2.32%
FOOD CPG
AVERAGE
3.68% 2.97% 8.13% 2.59% 4.27%
BEVERAGE CPG
AVERAGE
12.87% 2.00% 9.59% 11.53% 4.92%
Year-over-Year Growth
109. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 109
1990-
1994
1995-
1999
2000-
2004
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
eCommerce 343 456 549 758 848 1016 998 1073
Grocery 198 182 425 479 475 520 612 611 572 518 504
Mass 112 144 253 348 379 617 487 474 533 464 348
Specialty 296 384 414 458 479 527 534 282 312
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
RevenueperEmployee(K$)
Revenue per Employee
Retail: Revenue Per Employee
Source: Supply Chain Index Analysis from Annual Reports 1990-2012
Mean values utilized excluding outlier data
113. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 113
Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin (2000-2011)
SUMMARY SLIDE
114. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 114
Value Chain Relationships
Retail
(Mass
Merchant)
CPG Chemical
Equations:
Ln(market cap) =
10.41
+ 52.67(OM)
-34.72(WC)
- 16.02(ROIC)
-0.09(DPODSO)
+ 0.02(DOI)
3.37
+ 2.11(OM)
+ 1.62(FCF)
- 1.29(ROIC)
- 1.17ln(CR)
+ 0.25(SGAC)
+ 0.02(DPO)
– 0.01(DOI)
7.85(OM)
- 4.84(ROA)
+ 1.81ln(DPO)
+ 0.01(DOI)
True collaboration only happens when there is
a sustaining win-win value proposition.
115. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 115
SHARED
VISION
+ SKILLS + INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + PLAN + LEADERSHIP = CHANGE
SKILLS + INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + PLAN = CONFUSION
SHARED
VISION
+ INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + PLAN + LEADERSHIP = ANXIETY
SHARED
VISION
+ SKILLS + INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + LEADERSHIP =
FALSE
STARTS
SHARED
VISION
+ SKILLS + INCENTIVE + PLAN + LEADERSHIP = FRUSTRATION
SHARED
VISION
+ SKILLS + RESOURCES + PLAN + LEADERSHIP =
GRADUAL
CHANGE
Source: J.P. Kotter
Collaboration: The Right Stuff
116. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 116
Demand
Signal
Accurate
Weekly
Forecasting
is ...
Delay from
Purchase to
Signal
Data Latency and Distortion Across the Network
Red Represents Emerging Economies with
Distributor Trade
Retailer DC
Easy
3-10 Days
7-20 Days
Manufacturer DC
Difficult
10-20 Days
20-45 Days
Suppliers
Almost
Impossible
20-50 Days
45-80 Days
Store
Trivial
Instant
Variable
118. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 118
Supply Reliability
Manufacturer
mentioned by
name
120. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 120
Bar codes were first used at Marsh Supermarket in 1968
123. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 123
Quality of Data
100%
72%
62% 59%
52%
41% 38%
72%
55%
41%
14% 17%
10% 7%
-28%
-17% -21%
-45%
-34% -31% -31%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Point of Sale Warehouse
Withdrawal
Warehouse
Perpetual Inventory
Changes
Store Forecasts In-store Perpetual
Inventory Changes
Company
Forecasts
Loyalty
Downstream Data Received from Retailers vs. Clean
Receives Clean (Rated 5-7 on 7-Pt Scale) Gap (Clean - Receive)
____________________________________________________________
Source: Supply Chain Insights LLC, Downstream Data (Aug-Oct 2012)
Base: Manufacturers using/trying to use downstream data (n=29 – CAUTION: Small base size)
Q17. What types of downstream data does your company get from retailers? Please select all that apply.
Q19. For each type of data that you get, please rate how clean it is, on average, considering all retailers from which you get it. SCALE:
1=Extremely dirty, 7=Extremely clean
125. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 125
Days of Inventory (DOI): Companies with and without Demand
Sensing (CPG, Food, Heath & Beauty Industries)
Evolution
64
65
66
63
66
65 65
63
60
61
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Company Financials
DaysInventory
126. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 126
Risk Management
high
low
highlow
Impact
Probability of Adverse Event
catastrophic
periodic incident
strategic
daily surprise
Probability * Impact = Value at Risk
127. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 127
Risk Assessment: A Value-Driven Approach
high
low
highlow
safety, quality
Impact
Probability of Adverse Event
catastrophic
periodic incident
strategic
daily surprise
mark to market
portfolio mgmt risksustainability
product mix shift
commodity costs
margin pressure
private label
deflation
foreign exchange
* AMR Research – Top CP Risk Mentions last quarterly earnings report
innovation stalls
health & wellness
nutrition & labeling
consumer trends
failed cost reduction programs
failed productivity
n. american economy
de-stocking
128. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 128
Value Network Strategy
Supply chain strategy
Business Strategy
What are the right things to do to increase company value?
Value-network Supply Chain Strategy
What are the right ways to support the business strategy?
What are the right trade-offs between value drivers for each value network?
Right product
platforms
Design the
supply
response
Build
organizational
systems and
manage talent
Align supply
relationships
Align demand
relationships
Effective Supply
Networks
Execution of buy-
side strategies
Continuous
Improvement
Capabilities Required
Supply Chain
Network Design
Design Networks
Innovation
Methodologies
Demand Networks
Joint Value Creation
Strategies
Business Process
How do I do the right things right?
Source: Supply Chain Insights, LLC
130. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 130
The Supply Chain of the Future
World
Population
Source: “The World at Six Billion” United Nations, 2004; The World UN Population Assessment 2006; “Unsustainable World,” 04/15/08, BBC
North America
2007 2020
339M 342M
Europe
2007 2020
731M 722M
Asia
2007 2020
4.0B 4.6B
L America
2007 2020
572M 660M
Africa
2007 2020
965M 1.3B
Oceania
2007 2020
34M 40M
131. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 131
Outside-In
Value-Based Outcomes
Delivered by Value Networks
Supply Chain Excellence =
Supply Chain 2020 Tipping Points
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Talent
Shortage
Compliance on
Safe & Secure
Orchestration
Big Data
Supply Chains
Internet of Things
Learning
Supply Chains
Digital Manufacturing
135. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 135
Definition
Challenges:• Transactional
• Time phased data
Structured
Data
• Social
• Channel
• Customer Service
• Warranty
• Temperature
• RFID
• QR codes
• GPS
• Mapping and GPS
• Video
• Voice
• Digital Images
Unstructured
Data
Sensor
Data
New
Data
Types
Volume
Velocity
Variability
138. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 138
• Outside-in
• End-to-End Orchestration
• Supply Chain Matters
Path Forward
140. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 140
• May 17th: How Do We Heal the Healthcare Value Chain, Part II
• June 13th: Sales and Operations Planning: State of the Union
• July 11th: Big Data Supply Chains and the Future of Analytics
• August 15th: State of Supply Chain Talent. Missing Link in the
Supply Chain
• August 29th: Digital Manufacturing
Upcoming Webinars
Each webinar is based on new and relevant research
and will feature two-three industry leaders
143. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 143
Who Is Lora?
• Founder of Supply Chain Insights
• Partner at Altimeter Group (leader in open
research)
• 7 years of Management Experience leading
Analyst Teams at Gartner and AMR Research
• 8 years Experience in Marketing and Selling
Supply Chain Software at Descartes Systems
Group and Manugistics (now JDA)
• 15 Years Leading teams in Manufacturing and
Distribution operations for Clorox, Kraft/General
Foods, Nestle/Dreyers Grand Ice Cream and
Procter & Gamble.
144. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2013, p. 144
Where Do You Find Lora?
Contact Information:
lora.cecere@supplychaininsights.com
Blog: www.supplychainshaman.com
(4000 pageviews/month)
Twitter: lcecere 3800 followers. Rated as the
top rated supply chain social network user.
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/pub/lora-
cecere/0/196/573 (3560 in the network)