Ricardo @ Take A Breath 2012

The Future for Gasoline Engines
An overview of key gasoline engine drivers and technologies for 2020

Ken Pendlebury
Director Gasoline Engines

June 2012

www.ricardo.com
© Ricardo plc 2012

There are many drivers for gasoline engine development but the
current emphasis on fuel consumption is driven by legislation
Powertrain Technology Drivers Engine Implications

Legislation, Emissions Down-sizing/down-speeding strategy for CO2
Climate Cost-effective EU5/6 and SULEV Low parasitic loss designs
Change and
Energy CO2 and fuel economy Advanced combustion systems
Security Robust real-world FE improvement Hybrid engine solutions

Functionality and Safety
Fun-to-drive performance, package
Reliability and service costs Low engine speed transient performance
Car Buyers Efficiency Package to enable improved cabin space
Fuel economy and ownership cost Optimum solution for real world FE and
emissions, not just legislation
Environment
Emerging awareness of climate change

Increased specific power and torque
Brand Identity
Transient performance
Performance, driveability and NVH
2 and 3 Cylinder NVH challenges
OEMs and Profitability Cost, complexity and commonality
Suppliers Cost-effective fuel economy solutions considering total product range
Fewer more flexible engine families Cylinder size versus cylinder count
Global engine portfolio Emerging market opportunities
Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 2

The growth of both regulation and targets for Low Carbon Vehicles
sets a major challenge for the road transport sector
270
US-LDV EU, USA, Canada, Australia,
China and Japan all have
Grams CO2 per kilometer, normalized to NEDC

California-LDV
250
Canada-LDV legislation / agreements for fuel
230 EU economy or CO2
Japan EU Proposal for vans
210
China – 175 g/km from 2014-16
190 S. Korea
– 135 g/km by 2020
Australia
170 USA has set target of
– 35.5 mpg by 2016
150
– 54.5 mpg by 2025
130
2025:
US 2025: – To be implemented over
Solid dots and lines: historical performance 107
110 Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets China 2020: 117 whole of USA by EPA
Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets
Japan 2020: 105
Hollow dots and dotted lines: unannounced proposal
EU 2020: 95
Challenging targets:
90
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 – EU 3.9% pa to 2020
[1] China's target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be lower. – US 4.7% pa to 2025
[2] US and Canada light-duty vehicles include light-commercial vehicles.

EU regulation set at 130 g/km assuming a further 10 g/km is achieved via biofuels and “other non
drive cycle related measures” – Long term target is 95 g/km in 2020
Vehicles with CO2 emissions below 50 g/km receive super-credits - Vehicle counted as 3.5 cars in
2012/13, 2.5 cars in 2014, 1.5 cars in 2015 & reverts to direct impact only in 2016
Sources: http://www.nhtsa.gov/staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/cafe/Oct2010_Summary_Report.pdf www.theicct.org/info/documents/PVstds_update_apr2010.pdf;

Traditional passenger car markets are stagnating or in decline,
volume growth will come from China, India, S America and SE Asia

Passenger Car Sales by Market: 2005, 2010 & forecast for 2015, 2021* (mn units)
* Spot forecast
14.6 12.9 14.6 15.8 1.4 1.8 3.2 4.0

2005 2010 2015 2021 26.1
15.7 15.2 16.2 20.9
Russia
10.6 2005 2010 2015 2021
Western Europe 11.9

3.2
2005 2010 2015 2021 1.8 1.6 2.5 3.6
USA 2005 2010 2015 2021
China 4.7 4.2 3.8 4.8
2005 2010 2015 2021
Eastern Europe 2005 2010 2015 2021
1.1 2.2 4.6 10.6 Japan

2005 2010 2015 2021 5.0
2.6 3.2 4.3
India
5.6 6.9 2005 2010 2015 2021
2.0 3.7
SE Asia
2005 2010 2015 2021
South America

Region Definitions
Eastern Europe: Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia,
Turkey, Ukraine
South America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, Uruguay
South East Asia: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand
Sources: JD Power, Ricardo analysis

Diesel penetration will reduce in Europe as Hybrid and Gasoline
technologies improve. Gasoline remains the dominant globally
USA Europe
100% 100%

Diesel (CI) 90% 90%

80% 80%

70% 70%

60% 60%
Gasoline (SI)
50% 50%
40% 40%
30%
30%
Hybrid 20%
20%
(Gasoline) 10%
10%
0%
0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Hybrid
(Diesel) USA passcar & SUV market to remain Europe to maintain gasoline and Diesel
predominantly gasoline. Hybrid and EV Some decline in Diesel share expected
Electric
Vehicles growth but not mainstream until 2025+ particularly in small vehicle segments with
& others
Diesel will continue to dominate Heavy- growth of advanced gasoline & HEV`
Duty sector, and opportunity for Light Japan
Duty products to support CAFE strategy 100%

90%

80%

70%

Growth Markets 60%

50%

China: passcar market to be dominated by gasoline with 40%

30%
modest hybrid and EV growth in major cities. Some Diesel 20%

growth in SUV/MPV segment 10%

0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
India: 32% Diesel passenger cars and growing, strong Strongest growth of hybrid and
demand for low cost diesel solutions EVs in Japan - Negligible Diesel

Technology roadmaps for gasoline engines focus on CO2 reduction
as emission legislation remains less challenging

Emissions Euro 4 (2005) Euro 5 (2009) Euro 6 (2014)
130g/km CO2 95 g/km CO2 target
kW/l Reduce CO2 and increase kW/l

Engine Engine Downsizing, Downspeeding & Hybridisation
Concept Energy Recovery / Split Cycle
Improved Friction
Engine Design Thermal & Lubrication Systems
Advanced Structures
Variable Tumble Intake Ports
Air Handling Twin Scroll, 1050, Twin T/C VGT, E-boost, Compounded Boost
Cylinder Deactivation, CPS, VVL
Biofuel
Homogeneous GDI
Combustion
2nd Generation Stratified GDI
CAI, WOT, EGR, Lean Boost, Deep Miller Cycle
TWC – Optimising Formulation and Substrates
Emissions
Control LNT
GPF
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Source: Ricardo Analysis

Gasoline combustion system development paths
Base engine architecture improvements can be applied to all engines such as low friction
techniques. Combustion research has focused on two parallel paths.

Stoich Dev Steps S1 S2 S3 HyBoost
S4 S5 S6?
Displacement Baseline Downsize Downsize Downsize Downsize Increased EGR
Injection PFI Side/Central DI Central DI Central DI Central DI Dilution at Part
Load to reduce
λ=1

Valvetrain DVVT DVVT CVVL DVVT DVVT + Miller PMEP –
requires
Air Handling NA FGT Adv.FGT WOT EGR Adv.Boost advanced
Aftertreatment 3WC 3WC + GPF? 3WC + GPF? 3WC + GPF 3WC + GPF ignition

FC/CO2 0% 15-20% 20-25% 25-30% 25-35% 40%?
Lean Dev Steps L1 L2 Volcano L3 L4?
Displacement Baseline Downsize Downsize Increased EGR
Injection Central DI Central DI Central DI Dilution for
Eng.Out NOx
λ>1

Valvetrain DVVT DVVT DVVT Control –
requires
Boosting NA FGT or Adv.FGT Adv. FGT + WOT EGR advanced
Aftertreatment GPF+LNT/SCR GPF+LNT/SCR GPF+LNT/SCR ignition

FC/CO2 10-15% 25-35% 35-40% 45%?

Increasing kW/L = Higher Performance or More Aggressive Downsizing / Increased CR / Reduced Cylinder Count

Fuel Consumption Benefit of Downsizing
While there are two parallel paths to combustion system development, lean technology requires
less downsizing to realise the benefits. Pure downsizing can utilise current aftertreatment
25
Drive Cycle Fuel Consumption Benefit [%]

Ricardo LBDI vehicle
demonstrator

20 Ricardo "DI Boost"
vehicle demonstrator

Ricardo Next Generation
SGDI turbo (simulation)
15

10
1.8l PFI V’s 1.2TGDI

5

0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Downsize Ratio [%]


Downsizing with some electrification will become more common
Ricardo HyBoost combines a range of technologies which can be used together or in isolation
to achieve the performance larger engines and good fuel economy

Base Electrical Belt Starter Energy
Engine Supercharger Generator Storage

1.0 litre, 30 Bar 3kW Machine which 6kW in regen, 4 kW Ultra capacitor or
BMEP with gives up to 10kW at motoring, advanced lead-acid
conventional the crankshaft Used for Stop/Start battery
Turbocharger Only used during operation Larger capacity of LA
Central DI Lambda=1 aggressive transients Used for torque battery gives greater
Good base engine from low speed where augmentation in drive fuel consumption
fuel consumption traditional turbo has cycle region improvements at
poor response lower cost

Technologies combined to give fuel CO2 emissions of 90g/km in current ‘C’ -class
vehicle with future glide path to 50g/km

to achieve the performance larger engines

Hy Boost
Operation
Downsized, DI,
Belt starter turbocharged engine
BSG starts engine using 12+x Volts generator
Starting In gear stop/start used on cycle

BSG used for torque augmentation
– Light accelerations
Acceleration
– Light load pull-away
E-Charger used for hard accel’s + -

Conventional
Cruising Surplus energy can be harvested turbocharger
“12+X”
energy
storage & Electric
BSG Generates power for storage controller supercharger
Deceleration


to achieve the performance larger engines

300

280

260

240

220
Torque (Nm)

200

180

160
HyBoost Torque Curve no VTES
HyBoost Torque Curve with VTES
140
2.0L Duratec NA PFI
HyBoost Torque Curve Large T/C no VTES
120 Best Torque
Potential fill-in
from VTES Std Fox
100
1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500
Engine Speed (rpm)


Ford Focus HyBoost vehicle performance attributes

Vehicle 2009 Ford Focus 2.0L 2011 Ford Focus 1.6L 2011 Ford Focus 1.0L 2010 Toyota Prius
Duratec EcoBoost HyBoost P/T

Maximum power 145 (107) @ 6000 rpm 150 (110) @ 5700 rpm 143 (105) @ 5500 rpm 99 (73) @ 5200 rpm
[PS(kW)] Hybrid system net power
= 136 (100) @ 5200 rpm

Peak torque [Nm] 185 @ 4000 rpm 240 @ 1600 rpm (o/b) 240 @ 3500 rpm 142 Nm

0 – 62 mph*** [s] 9.2 8.6 9.2 10.4 sec

31 – 62 mph** [s] 11.9 8.6 11.2 TBC

Max. speed [mph] 128 mph 130 mph 128 mph 112 mph

Cycle CO2 reduction Baseline (0%) 18% 41 – 47% 47%
150 300
As on NEDC, UCap capacity
is too small to store all regen
125 braking energy during decel 250
from high speed
100 200

75 150
pe ( m , O ( ) o g ( )
Se d k / ) S C% Vl a e V

50 100
t

25 50
,

ur n A
Cre t( )
0 0
h

-25 -50

-50 -100

-75 -150

-100 Veh Spd -200
UCap Voltage
-125 UCap SOC -250
UCap Current
-150 -300
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Time (s)


Stratified charge engines are an alternative to downsizing
As an alternative to ‘extreme’ downsizing stratified charge engines offer much of the fuel
consumption benefit with a larger engine. Interest primarily from the US.

Base Engine Combustion System Fuel Injection Control
(Ricardo Volcano) Geometry Systems Systems

Lower downsize Geometry designed to ‘A’-nozzle, hollow Control of multiple
rations required give best Knock cone injectors injections essential for
Base engine parasitic performance necessary for good stratified region
loses still key Central DI for best stratification Potential for
Boosting technologies control of AFR at the Multiple injections advanced ignition
key for best economy spark plug used to control spray system to improve
and performance penetration EGR tolerance

New injector and control technologies allow fuel consumption similar or better than
a current Diesel engine

Example of optimised control strategy using CFD and optical engine
1500RPM, 3 Bar BMEP WOT using 3 unevenly spaced injectons


Ricardo Volcano fuel consumption map
Stratified charge engines offer a wide area of good fuel economy. EGR is used to reduce the
burden on lean aftertreatment and control knock at higher loads
35 Grey region:
Red region: Best BSFC achieved at mid load under boosted conditions. - Lambda 1 operating
With this concept it could be possible to over downsized or BSFC [g/kWh]
- WOT boosted region with multiple
region downspeed the engine dependant on vehicle application injection strategies for
- Combination 30 knock mitigation
340 300 280
of closed -- Low pressure cooled
spaced late 420 WOT EGR (5 – 15%)
injections and can be used when
MIVIS strategy 25 combined with
- EGR 0 – 10% Remaining region: advanced boosting and
240 - Lambda 1 .4 - 1 increased CR for
operating region, further efficiency
bar]

20 230
no EGR required improvements
BMEP [b

220
Green region:
15 - WOT Boosted region
Lower speed 203 - MIVIS strategy for
best BSFC island best BSFC
limited by 240 - EGR 0 % as “off-cycle”
10 210
achievable boost
pressure – 210 260 Blue region:
rematching of - WOT (effectively) NA
280
the T/C should 5 stratified region
300
improve this - All late, close spaced
340
420 multiple injections
- EGR 10 – 30%,
0 dependant on engine
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000
out NOx target
Engine speed [rev/min]

k1
Fuel consumption of some best in class engines
The lean stratified engines from both Ricardo research and Mercedes production engines show
fuel consumption better than a benchmark Diesel engine

410
Ricardo Volcano SGDI engine - stoichiometric mode
390
Best-in-class I4 GDI engine
370 Mercedes V6 SGDI - stratified lean mode
Benchmark diesel engine
350
Ricardo Volcano SGDI engine - lean stratified mode
330
BSFC [g/kWh]

310

290

270

250

230

210
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
BMEP [bar]


Diapositiva 16

k1 Remove animtaion and supuefluos engines if possible
kjp; 27/06/2012

Ricardo Volcano fuel consumption at 2500 rev/min
Detailed SGDI engine data show how BSFC can be maintained to high loads whilst not exceeding
PMax limits
BMEP SGDI Diesel

1 426.1 585.3
450 120
2 300 314.7
Diesel 1bar BMEP
425 BSFC = 585 g/kWh 100

Boost pressure (kPa[g]), Spartk Advance (deg CA
400 80
BSFC
375 BM Diesel BSFC 60
BIC Gasoline Engine
BSFC (g/kWh)

BTDCF), PMax (bar)
350 Boost 40
Spark

325 PMax 20

300 0

275 -20

250 -40

225 -60

200 -80
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
BMEP (bar)

Gasoline Engines

Vehicle simulation results
Vehicle simulation shows a 40% improvement in fuel consumption over a conventional NA gasoline
engine of similar performance and a 20% improvement over a lambda = 1 engine

Performance

Power [kW] @rpm 197
Torque [Nm] @rpm 391
Best BSFC [g/kWh] 203* (209)
BSFC @2000rpm 2bar BMEP 276* (284)

Vehicle : D-segment sedan Vehicle : D-segment sedan Vehicle : D-segment sedan
Engine : 3.0 V6 NA PFI dVVT Engine : 2.0L TC GDI dVVT Engine : 2.0 I4 T-SGDI dVVT
Transmission : 8AT Transmission : 8AT Transmission : 8AT
IWC : 1810kg IWC : 1810kg IWC : 1810kg
NEDC FE : 249 g/km CO2 NEDC FE : 183 g/km CO2 NEDC FE : 142 g/km CO2
Best-in-class Central Injector Volcano 2.0L Engine with
2.0L Non-CVVL Engine 2% LNT Re-Gen FC Penalty


Sales and technology trends will have an impact on manufacturing
Engine capacity and cylinder count has been reducing but in the shrinking premium segment
large cylinder counts (6,8 &12) remain dominant.

Engine capacity have generally In the premium sector large
been reducing cylinder counts are still common

General downsizing is evident in all sectors Most premium manufactures anticipate that they
will continue with ‘high cylinder count’ engines
In luxury and sports product reduced cylinder
count and turbocharging are the key means to These engines will become niche and
maintain or improve performance manufactured in ever smaller volumes
Larger engines will become niche product for
mainstream manufactures


Gasoline

Flexible, small volume manufacturing facilities will become common
Whilst downsizing and boosting gives fuel consumption benefits, larger engines will become
and important niche for many manufacturers. Low volume facilities which are flexible and give
the same quality as traditional facilities will become more prevalent

Low volume production
Ricardo Engine Assembly Facility

State of the art 800m2 facility producing up
to 9,000 engines per year
Capacity to assemble 5,000 engines per
shift per year
– Extendable to 10,000 units with double
shift

Quality must be the same as best conventional
engine manufacturing facilities
Full hot test facility
– Quick load/unlock system
– Fully automatic operation
No faults forward assembly facility


Conclusions

Fuel consumption legislation is now the dominant driver for engine development!
For the foreseeable future:
– Diesel engines will remain popular Europe
– The emerging markets show little or no appetite for Diesel engines
– High efficiency gasoline engines will be required to achieve legislative fuel economy targets
There will be a number of significant trends in gasoline engine development
– Continued focus on reduced weight and friction
– Downsizing & boosting will be seen in all markets in varying degrees
– GDI as an enabling technology will become more prevalent in all but lowest cost engines
– In some markets, lean burn will be adopted before extreme downsizing
– Lower cylinder count will give us all challenges in NVH
I6, V8 and larger engines will become premium and niche driving a requirement for high quality low
volume manufacturing facilities with no compromise in quality


Cost-benefit analysis for Ricardo research projects

CO2 versus cost for powertrain technologies

60%
relative to Euro 5 gasoline engine

~2014 BIC Gasoline Hybrid Full hybrid (+30% DS)
50% Battery Mild Hybrid Diesel
Flywheel Mild Hybrid Diesel 2009 BIC Gasoline Hybrid
Drive-cycle CO2 reduction

Syner-D
Advanced Conventional Diesel Full hybrid
40%
T-SGDI
HyBoost
ECO Diesel E5
Stop Start
30% 2/4CAR
Micro hybrid (12+X BSG)
Lean Boost DI (LBDI) Stop-start (Super Starter)
Diesel (E4) - no DPF
20%

Boosted DI (Stoic) Diesel
VVL + Homo DI Gasoline
10% Homo DI + VVT
Micro hybrid (12v BSG) Ricardo projects
Twin Phaser VVT Latest cars
Stop-start (Super Starter)
Gasoline (E4/E5)
0%
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 350% 400% 450%

Increase in cost relative to Euro 5 gasoline engine


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