Uncertainty and complexity define our today and tomorrow. Systems and organisations need a real understanding of the potential futures in order to make the most fit for purpose choices today. School of International Futures recently worked with GOS to showcase how different governments use foresight and futures techniques. This includes a framework that sets out the key features of effective cross-government foresight work and how organisations and systems can build a resilient approach to incorporating. We will present the framework, give chance for questions and then support you to consider implications in your own system https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/o/london-policy-amp-strategy-network-31019071129

1. soif.org.uk
SOIF
Practitioners in planning,
strategy and policy for
future generations.
Systems are cracking.
We’re excited.

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Why think about the future
Align around
a preferred
future
Harness
agency for
that future
Make future-
aware
decisions
Surface and
challenge
assumptions

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Keep in mind…
There are no future facts
….said Wendell Bell in
Foundations of Future
Studies
All our knowledge is
about the past but all of
our decisions are about
the future
….said Kenneth
Boulding

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The project
SOIF was commissioned to explore how different countries have
developed their foresight systems, and to surface insights for how
GOS and the wider UK system may want to develop their capacity
and capability.
This included
• a set of eight case studies that would provide context and
insights into how these countries integrate foresight in a
comprehensive way across policy-making, drawing on a high-level
literature review and semi-structured interviews. The countries:
Canada, Finland, Malaysia, Netherlands, New Zealand,
Singapore, the United Arab Emirates and the United States
• a workshop with leading foresight practitioners from across
the world, including those that have built and led systems within
the policy-making sphere
• SOIF’s own knowledge and expertise working to deliver
foresight with impact across more than 50 organisations including
multiple international bodies such as the UN, WHO and EU.

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What we found
1. There is no silver bullet for creating effective sustainable foresight in
government.
2. Considering foresight as an “ecosystem” that includes the socio-cultural
and political context of that nation is critical to ensure lasting integration
into policy-making
3. A healthy foresight ecosystem creates demand for futures work, ensures
quality supply and nurtures itself.
4. There is a common set of features that have helped countries to build
future-oriented, resilient and adaptable foresight ecosystems. No one
nation has all of these features and none on its own is sufficient for a
sustainable foresight ecosystem.
5. The best mix for any particular country will depend on what is already in
place, where there is appetite for activity and which aspects of the
foresight ecosystem are most in need of development.
6. Developing the ecosystem can, and should be, done in phases that
reflect the current system and the wider context

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An ecosystems approach to foresight
4 layers – each influencing the next and unique to the nation

7. Legislature Finland: Committee of the Future
Set up in 1993, the Finnish parliament’s Committee for the Future considers future trends, particularly
around science and technology policy. 17 Members of the Finnish Parliament sit on the committee and work
to “generate dialogue with the government on major future problems and opportunities.
Executive Singapore
The Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) and Strategic Foresight Unit (SFU) were both established in 2010.
The former, has a remit to coordinate foresight across public and non-governmental sectors to promote
dialogue and the pursuit of mutual interests.
Judiciary Netherlands
In the Netherlands the court is an activist player and dynamic driver towards long-termism in the system.
The Oslo Principles on Global Climate Change Obligations were a landmark set of obligations which called
for government responses to climate change be mandated both morally and legally.
Audit United States
The Government Accountability Office (GAO) established the Center for Strategic Foresight in 2018 to
support “identifying, monitoring, and analyzing emerging issues facing policy-makers”.
Public and arm’s length bodies Finland
In Finland, Sitra is an independent futures organisation and fund that is responsible for promoting the
wellbeing of Finland. Sitra reports to Parliament and is not responsible to any particular governmental party.
Citizens and Media Singapore
Our Singapore Conversation (2012) facilitated dialogue with citizens around their fears, hopes and
aspirations. It included 47,000 participants in 660 sessions at 75 locations and in 7 languages to include as
many Singaporeans as possible from all walks of life.
Examples of players in the ecosystem

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Context matters

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Foresight ecosystems operate in this context
3 priority activities for a
foresight ecosystem

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And these ecosystems have specific features
4 features of a foresight
ecosystem

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Culture and behaviour
• focus on creating commitment
• bring policy-makers into foresight
• meet policy-makers where they are
• support short-term work with long-term perspective
• generate shared ownership and buy-in
Structures
• ave central units sitting in or near the heart of government
• build and foster capacity in departments and agencies
• work to have courts, elected officials and audit officials involved
• put in place coordinating and sharing groups
People
• make sure that there are in-house skills and capacity
• invest in the development of the next generation
• have visible consistent champions
• support and nurture people working in strategic foresight
• build local and international experts
Processes
• work across all of government and use all government levers
• deliver a small number of set piece activities
• develop their own work
• draw on diverse methods and disciplines
• invest in ongoing research and innovation around strategic foresight
Features of an effective foresight system*
*from our research – more research may yield more / adjust the list

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What does this mean for you