W S1 Input Lowland Communities And Agriculture National Grassroots Climate Change Conference Balay Kalinaw, UP Diliman 20-21 April 2009

1. Climate Change
and
Its Impacts on Agriculture 1
by:
2
Lourdes V. Tibig
1
Presented at the Conference on Climate Change organized by the Kalikasan-People’s Network for the Environment
on April 20-21, 2009 at the Blai Kalinaw.
2
Klima/Manila Observatory

4. Outline
 Climate change science
- IPCC AR4
- Fingerprints: Philippine Scene
 Impacts
- Current climate variability
- El Niño/La Niña events
- Tropical cyclone passage/occurences
- Climate risks

5. We live in unusual times!
 Ghg concentrations are increasing rapidly and
are now much higher than they have been for at
least 420,000 years

7. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)
 Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal
 Widespread melting of snow and ice,
and rising global average sea level
 We are committed to a warming of
0.2°C/decade

8. How have the earth’s surface temperature changed?
Variations of Earth’s surface
temperature for the past 140 years
PROJECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGE
Warming in the last 50
years is UNUSUAL in
the last 1300 years
1900 2000 2100

9. Signals of climate change….
• 11 of the last twelve years: warmest years since
1850
• More frequent hot days, hot nights, and heat
waves but less frequent cold days, cold nights
and frost over the last 50 years
• More intense and longer droughts since the
1970s
• More frequent, persistent and intense El Niño
since the mid-1970s

10. Is climate change inevitable?
• We have pumped enough
greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere to warm the planet for
many decades to come,
• The Earth’s natural system will be
affected for decades even if ghg
emissions are reduced NOW.

11. Are there projections for further warming?
• There are projected increases of
from 1.1°C to 6.4°C during the 21st
century.
• For the next two decades a warming
of about 0.2°C per decade is
projected.

12. What is happening in the Philippines?

13. Observed Mean Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines
Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
1.5
Anomaly
1 5 year running mean
Linear (5 year running mean)
Temperature Anomaly (°C)
0.5
0
-0.5 y = 0.0109x - 0.2423
-1
-1.5
51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 01 06
Year
An increase of 0.6104°C from 1951-2006

14. Observed Mean Annual Maximum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines
Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
1.5
Anomaly
5 year running mean 0.947774998
1
Temperature Anomaly (°C)
Linear (5 year running mean)
0.5
0
-0.5
y = 0.0062x - 0.1747
-1
-1.5
51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 1 6
Year
An increase of 0.3472°C from 1951-2006

15. Observed Mean Annual Minimum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines
Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
1.5
Anomaly
1 5 year running mean
Temperature Anomaly (°C)
Linear (5 year running mean)
0.5
0
-0.5 y = 0.0159x - 0.3266
-1
-1.5
51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 1 6
Year
An increase of 0.8904°C from 1951-2006, increase in minimum temperatures
almost 3 times increase in maximum temperatures

16. Tracks of tropical cyclones that entered the PAR during the period 1948-2005 1128 tropical cyclones

17. Annual frequency of T.C. entering the PAR
and crossing the Philippines (1948-2006)
35
Not Crossing the Philippines
30 Land falling/Crossing the Philippines
25
20
15
10
5
0
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
Total = 1148, Mean = 19 to 20 , Std. Dev. = 4, Max = 32 , Min = 11
528 T.C. or 46% crossed /land fall in the Country
Average crossing = 9 T.C.

18. Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)

19. Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)

21. Anomaly of Annual Philippine Rainfall With Normal Base Period 1961- 1990
Annual
150 5 years mean
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
-75
-100
-125
-150

22. Percentage of Annual Rainfall associated
with the passage of Tropical Cyclones
(1951-2005)
% of Rainfall
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Station Names
NAIA 429
PortArea 425
Science Garden 430
Sangley Point 428
Vigan 222
Tuguegaro 233
Baguio City 328
Dagupan 325
Iba, Zam bales 324
Cubi Pt,Subic 426
Am bulong 432
Calapan 431
Puerto Princes a 618
Cuyo 630
Coron 526
Itbayat 132
Bas co Synop 135
Calayan 133
Aparri 232
Cabanatuan 330
Cas iguran 336
Alabat 435
Infanta 434
Rom blon 536
Mas bate 543
Daet 440
Legas pi 444
Virac Synop 446
Virac Radar 447
Roxas City 538
Iloilo 637
Catarm an 546
Catbalogan 548
Tacloban City 550
Dum aguete 642
Mactan 646
Maas in 648
Surigao City 653
Hinatuan 755
Dipolog 741
Lum bia 747
Cagayan De Oro 748
Malaybalay 751
Davao 753
Zam boanga 836
% A nnual RR due to TC % Annual RR due other Wx Systems

23. FREQUENCY OF
FLOODS IN
D CITIES AND
O MUNICIPALITIES
S
T
-
P
A
G
A
S
THE STUDY ON THE
A NATIONWIDE FLOOD RISK
ASSESSMENT AND THE FLOOD
MITIGATION PLAN FOR THE
SELECTED AREAS IN THE
REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES:
:
JICA, 2004

24. Trends of extreme events

25. Trends in extreme daily temperatures and rainfall
Results:
• Majority of stations show an increase in hot days and warm nights
HOT WARM
DAYS NIGHTS

26. Results:
• There are few significant decreases in hot days at
coastal stations (Aparri, Virac, Puerto Princesa), but this
same behavior is also seen in coastal stations of
northern and western Australia (Griffiths, et.al, 2005)
Tr
en
ds
in
ex
tre
m
e
da
ily
te
m
pe
rat

28. Trends in extreme daily temperatures and rainfall
Results: • Decreases in cold nights and cool days are significant and
almost all throughout the country. Again, this is spatially
coherent across the broad Asia-Pacific region ( Manton, et.
al., 2001, Griffiths, et.al., 2005
COOL COLD
DAYS NIGHTS

29. Rainfall Indices
• Most results are not significant. Generally, increases in total
rainfall and number of raindays, again in the Visayas.
TOTAL RAIN
RAINFALL DAYS

30. • Increases in intensity and frequency of extreme
rainfall events especially in the Visayas
INTENSITY FREQUENCY
R
a
i
n
f
a
l
l
I
n
d

31. Impacts

32. Impacts of changes in climate extremes:
Known impacts:
 Temperature increases beyond a threshold can affect key
development stages of some crops;
• Spikelet sterility in rice
• Loss of pollen viability in maize
• Tubers’ development in potatoes
 Yield losses can be severe if temp > critical limits for
even shorter periods;
 Increased flood, landslide, mudslide events (and
damages);
 Some ecosystems show effects quickly (ex. Coral
bleaching can occur in a single exceptionally warm season);
and
 Changes in the frequency of extreme events may disrupt some
ecosystems as a result of differences in response times of species.
Not adequately known:
• On pest infestations
• On ability of livestock to adapt to physiological stresses
• on aggregated market sector effects (changes in GDP)

33. Examples of climate variability and extreme climate events and their impacts:
Projected changes Projected impacts
Higher maximum temperatures, • incidence of deaths and serious illness in older people and urban
more hot days and heat waves poor
over nearly all land areas • Heat stress in livestock and wildlife
• risk of damage to a number of crops
• electric cooling demand
• energy supply reliability
Higher minimum temperatures, • cold-related human morbidity and mortality
and fewer cold days, frost days, • risk of damage to a number of crops
and cold waves over nearly all • range and activity of some pests and disease vectors
land areas
• heating energy demand
More intense precipitation • flood, landslide and avalanche damage
events • Soil erosion
• flood runoff could increase recharge of some flood plain aquifers
• Pressure on government and private flood insurance systems
and
Increase in tropical cyclone disaster relief
• Risks to human life, risk of infectious disease epidemics
peak wind intensities, and mean • Coastal erosion and damage to coastal buildings and
and peak precipitation infrastructure
intensities • damage to coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs and
mangroves

34. How vulnerable are we?
 Documentation (done in 2000) of impacts of
extreme climate events (ECEs) showed a very
clear link between ECEs and adverse impacts
on agriculture, water and coastal resources,
health and environment, including disaster
management

35. How vulnerable are we?
 Preliminary vulnerability and adaptation (V & A)
assessments in 5 most important sectors
(agriculture, water and coastal resources,
human health and forestry already indicated
high vulnerability to adverse impacts of climate
change
 Lower capacity to adapt due to lack of financial,
institutional and technological resources

36. Let’s take a look at natural disasters
Major natural disasters around the world, 1963-1992

37. Major natural disasters in the Philippines

38. Some statistics on most disastrous
tropical cyclones
Tropical Cyclone Damages
1. Ruping 1990 P 10.8 B
2. Rosing 1995 P 10.8 B
3. Kadiang 1993 P 0.8 B

39. On agriculture and food supply
 Too much or too little rains?
One tonne of imported rice ~ 1000 tonnes of H2O
 high temperatures
spikelet fertility
pest and diseases
 Most fundamental of human need (food) is at
great risk

40. Potential health impacts of climate and its change

41. What would climate change mean in the long
term?
 Freshwater availability in Southeast Asia
to decrease along with population growth
and increasing demand arising from
higher standards of living, could adversely
affect millions by 2050;
 Coastal areas especially heavily-populated
megadeltas will be at greatest risk due to
increased flooding from the sea, and in
some flooding from the rivers;

42.  Risk of hunger is projected to remain
very high in several developing countries
(decrease in crop yields);
 Endemic morbidity and mortality due to
diarrheal disease (primarily associated
with floods and droughts are expected to
rise due to projected changes in water
cycles;

43.  Increases in coastal water temperature
would exacerbate the abundance/toxicity
of cholera; and
 Climate change is expected to impinge
on the sustainable development of most
developing countries of Asia as it
compounds pressures on natural
resources and the environment.

44. Tipping point?
To prevent a global temperature rise above
2oC, carbon dioxide concentration in the
atmosphere has to be stabilised in the range
450 or 550 ppm
 Current CO2 concentration is 380 ppm and has
risen by around 100 ppm since the 1800s.

45. “Only the minimum emissions
scenarios - a deep green future-can
prevent global temperatures from
rising more than 2oC relative to
before the start of our coal
and oil age.”
Tyndall Technical Report, 2006

46. E-mail address: lvtibig@yahoo.com