The document discusses modelling social housing need in the Central Queensland region of Australia. It provides an overview of the key actors and factors involved in social housing provision and need. A proposed model is outlined that would use linear or non-linear extrapolation to forecast social housing demand over 30 years based on demographic and housing variables, and factors the impacts of mining booms, population growth, and income/wealth gaps. The goal is to help plan and provide social housing, which is important for regional sustainability.

1. Central East Housing and Homelessness Area Network 2010 Modelling Social Housing Need An Overview of Actors & Factors Dr. Delwar Akbar Sustainable Regional Development Program Centre for Environmental Management (CEM)

3. SRDP (CEM)’s Expertise in Housing Study

4. Our Engagement in the CQ Region

5. Example: Bowen Basin Regional Housing Model(s)

6. Social Housing Need – Provision and Actors

7. Social Housing Need – Factors

8. Proposed Model for Social Housing Need Analysis

10. TheCQ Region – An Overview

11. Resource Boom and the CQ Housing Pressure, State, Impact & Response Economic force (Direct & Indirect & Flow on) Population Dynamics Behavioural Functions HOUSING (Quick, Short & Long) [Social Housing] Social Cohesion & Services Location Spatial Interaction (Push, Pull & Trade-off) Environmental Consideration

12. CQU’sHousing Research Key areas

14. 2010: Housing demand modelling and accommodation impact study for the Grosvenor Mine Project in “Economic Impact Study of Grosvenor Mine Project”.

15. 2010: Housing demand forecasting and supply analysis for the Coppabella Underground Mine Project in “Social and Economic Impact Study of Coppabella Underground Mine Project”.

16. 2009: Housing demand forecasting and supply analysis for the Codrilla Mine Project in “Social and Economic Impact Study of Codrilla Mine Project”.

17. 2009: 2009: Housing demand forecasting and supply analysis for the Boulder Steel Project in “Economic Impact Assessment of the Boulder Steel Project”.

18. 2009: Housing demand forecasting and supply analysis for Eagle Downs Mine Project in “Economic Impact Study of Eagle Downs Mine Project”.

20. Stage 2: Incorporating local variable(s) into the model: changing labour market and expenditure pattern

22. Government initiatives to construct public housing in a certain area or any emergency situation would not reflect in this model

24. Bowen Basin Regional Housing (BBRH) Model Application of the model on Moranbah– based on ABS data 10

25. Bowen Basin Regional Housing (BBRH) Model Application of the model on Moranbah – Incorporating cumulating impacts

27. 508/10,000hh in CQ (except Woorabinda)

28. Public housing

29. ATSI housing

30. Long-term community housing

31. Local government and affordable housing providers

32. Social housing clients

33. Low income (especially in the resource towns)

34. Centrelink clients (26% in the CQ region compared to 35% in QLD - HS)

35. Homelessness people (70/10,000p in CQ while 38/10,000p in QLD)

36. Social housing providers and actors

37. Churches and Community Organisations (e.g., Anglicare, Roseberry Community Services)

38. Co-operatives and Large NGOs (e.g., Emu Park Housing Collective Ltd)

39. Local Government (e.g., RRC)

40. QLD Government

42. Higher housing and rental prices

43. Higher real housing costs for lower income households,

44. Accommodation costs of split families

45. Housing affordability to the non-mining labours

46. Population growth and changing demographic structure

47. Unemployment, Income and wealth gap

48. Seniors and disable persons

49. Family violence, separation and divorce

50. Mobility

52. Stage 2: Identifying and adding cumulative impacts

53. Stage 3: linear extrapolation of the demographic and housing variables

55. Stage 2: Identifying households for social housing - trend

56. Stage 3: Applying Monte-Carlo Simulation

58. Land availability

59. Approval processes

60. Building costs

61. Availability of builders

62. Institutional arrangements