This document summarizes unrest in the Middle East and North Africa region and its political and economic impacts. It began with uprisings in Tunisia in December 2010 and spread to Egypt in January 2011 which led to the removal of their long-time authoritarian leaders. Protests also occurred in Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and other countries due to issues like unemployment, corruption and calls for political reform. The unrest has disrupted oil supply from the region, causing price increases and potential impacts on industries and economic growth globally and within the MENA region. It discusses the roles of organizations like OPEC and issues like oil reserves and prices.

1. Revolt & Revolution in the Middle East Karen ZhangRichard La Benjamin Rodriguez Thomas Duzan MGT 112 | Professor Soma Winter 2011

2. Overview What’s going on Politics & Economics Oil OPEC

3. Unrests in the Middle East and North Africa Overall Report

4. Tunisia: Jasmine revolt Initial uprising, sparking protests in other countries Roots: unemployed man set himself ablaze, causing protests in all the country Complaints about high unemployment, corruption, rising prices and political repression Results: Autocratic President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali leaves the country on January 14, after 23 years. Now: Mr Essebsi unveiled a new interim government

5. Egypt Began on January 25 at Tahrir Square. Demonstrations against police corruption and abuses, lack of free elections and economic issues, such as high food prices, low wages and high unemployment. Led to the removal of Hosni Mubarak from power on February 11, after 30 years in power. Now: Essam Sharaf is the new leader, after the resignation of Ahmed Shafiq

6. Lybia Began in February Roots: lack of freedom, high unemployment rate, violation of human rights Rebels and Moammar Gadhafi’s military forces are fighting, causing deaths of civilians International leaders all condemn Gadhafi but can’t decide whether to act militarily or not A no-fly zone over Lybia is discussed

7. Other countries Common roots: lack of political and speech freedom, corruption, high unemployment, call for reform and democracy Demonstrations in Yemen, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Iran

8. Political & Economic Impact

9. Within MENA Middle East & North Africa Increase G; GDP = C + Inv + G + NE Increased national debt (excl. Saudi Arabia) more freedom in contracts / hiring decisions t Lower economic output  GDP Pressure on fiscal budget Bahrain & Kuwait: 1-time payoffs to leave demonstrations Saudi Arabia: wage rate increase 15% Kuwait: free food for 14 months

10. Globaloutlook Companies Consumers Oil Economic Growth

11. government contracts multi-nationals indirect business dependencies Companies

13. stagflation = -GDP & inflation eurozonedebt emerging markets: inflation & decreased output Economic Growth

14. short term & localized persistence in North Africa persistence through ME Economic Growth

15. Politics “Arab Paradox” Government

16. “Arab Paradox” Human Development Report: 83 “high development” countries – 64 are democracies “demographic bulge” – very young population high unemployment (~25%) vs. 8% worldwide, event amongst well-educated

17. influence of Islam – Iran (heavy) or Turkey (moderate) Government

18. Oil

20. Last disruption in the Middle East:

23. By its Influence (For Example: Libya)Obvious consequence: Spike in Oil Prices!

25. Other energy using consumer durables

26. Delay new buildings

30. Stabilizes prices in international oil markets with a view of eliminating harmful and unnecessary fluctuation

32. OPEC Oil Prices Question: Why are prices rising? Answer: Fear Major oil transit “choke points” OPEC’s next meeting is in June 2011 at Vienna Risk Premium Oil Minister of S.A. says the “spike in oil costs stems more from financial speculation and unwarranted investor sentiment than industry fundamentals.”

33. Questions?

34. Thank You