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European Leveraged Finance Market Update
October, 2013
Sucheet Gupte - Director
European Market Trends
Text

• The European leveraged finance primary and secondary markets had a strong September.
• Loan issuance was €3.82B in September 2013, while high yield issuance was €7.1B for the month.
• Secondary markets were up:
Leveraged loan markets were up 30 bps to close at 100.13;
HY markets were up 132 bps to finish 103.63.
• According to JP Morgan HY research: estimated inflows into European HY funds for September
are estimated to be €391M, bringing the year to date number to €3.1B.
• The S&P European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI) was up for September, with returns at 1.35%, slightly
below the 1.45% seen in August. This brings the YTD return to 6.15%.
• Just one CLO priced this month, Carlyle’s Global Market Strategies Euro CLO 2013-2, which was
upsized to €336M.

• Default rates were markedly lower.
Average Bid for European Loan Flow Name Composites
102

100

Text
98

96

94

92

90
3/11
.

5/11

7/11

9/11

11/11

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data

1/12

3/12

5/12

7/12

9/12

11/12

1/13

3/13

5/13

7/13

9/13
European HY Bond Flow Name Prices
106

102

Text

98

94
89
85
81
3/11
.

5/11

7/11

Source: Bloomberg

9/11 11/11 1/12

3/12

5/12

7/12

9/12 11/12 1/13

3/13

5/13

7/13

9/13
ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return
1.5%

September 2013:
August 2013:
Jan-Sept 2013:
Jan-Sept 2012:

Text

+ 1.35%
+ 1.45%
+ 6.15%
+ 7.33%

1.0%

0.6%

0.1%

-0.4%

9/12
.

10/12

11/12

12/12

Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13
Volume: New-Issue Loans vs. HY Bonds
18
HY bonds

Text

Loans

€billions

14

9

€7.1B

5

€3.8B
0
9/12
.

10/12

11/12

12/12

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13
ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans
Default Rate by Principal Amount

Default Rate by Issuer Count

16%

16%

13%

13%

10%

10%

Text

6%

6%

3%

0%
2/09
.

3%

0%
2/09

2/10

2/11

12/11

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data

9/13

2/10

12/11

2/12

9/13
Themes To Watch For
Text

• The forward calendar for new M&A transactions leaves a lot to be desired.
With the end of the year approaching, parties might just hold out on transactions
until next year.

• CLO forward calendar is still strong. As of last week, LCD counted 7 transactions
at €2.4 billion.
Even with the increase in new issue CLOs, there is still a significant shortfall that
needs to be made up due to the number of CLOs that will be past their
reinvestment periods.
Text

Text

Copyright 2013 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse
engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content shall not be
used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P
Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause,
for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES
DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A
PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT
THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect,
incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and
opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages.
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to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The
Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making
investment and other business decisions. S&P’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While S&P
has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any
information it receives.
S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain
business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain
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S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to
disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com
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October 2013, European Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update October, 2013 Sucheet Gupte - Director
  • 2. European Market Trends Text • The European leveraged finance primary and secondary markets had a strong September. • Loan issuance was €3.82B in September 2013, while high yield issuance was €7.1B for the month. • Secondary markets were up: Leveraged loan markets were up 30 bps to close at 100.13; HY markets were up 132 bps to finish 103.63. • According to JP Morgan HY research: estimated inflows into European HY funds for September are estimated to be €391M, bringing the year to date number to €3.1B. • The S&P European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI) was up for September, with returns at 1.35%, slightly below the 1.45% seen in August. This brings the YTD return to 6.15%. • Just one CLO priced this month, Carlyle’s Global Market Strategies Euro CLO 2013-2, which was upsized to €336M. • Default rates were markedly lower.
  • 3. Average Bid for European Loan Flow Name Composites 102 100 Text 98 96 94 92 90 3/11 . 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 1/13 3/13 5/13 7/13 9/13
  • 4. European HY Bond Flow Name Prices 106 102 Text 98 94 89 85 81 3/11 . 5/11 7/11 Source: Bloomberg 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 1/13 3/13 5/13 7/13 9/13
  • 5. ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return 1.5% September 2013: August 2013: Jan-Sept 2013: Jan-Sept 2012: Text + 1.35% + 1.45% + 6.15% + 7.33% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% -0.4% 9/12 . 10/12 11/12 12/12 Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13
  • 6. Volume: New-Issue Loans vs. HY Bonds 18 HY bonds Text Loans €billions 14 9 €7.1B 5 €3.8B 0 9/12 . 10/12 11/12 12/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13
  • 7. ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans Default Rate by Principal Amount Default Rate by Issuer Count 16% 16% 13% 13% 10% 10% Text 6% 6% 3% 0% 2/09 . 3% 0% 2/09 2/10 2/11 12/11 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data 9/13 2/10 12/11 2/12 9/13
  • 8. Themes To Watch For Text • The forward calendar for new M&A transactions leaves a lot to be desired. With the end of the year approaching, parties might just hold out on transactions until next year. • CLO forward calendar is still strong. As of last week, LCD counted 7 transactions at €2.4 billion. Even with the increase in new issue CLOs, there is still a significant shortfall that needs to be made up due to the number of CLOs that will be past their reinvestment periods.
  • 9. Text Text Copyright 2013 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees. pause