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Leveraged Loan Update
         March - 2012
Steve Miller - Managing Director
S&P/LSTA Index Returns

3%




1%




-1%




-3%




-5%
      3/11   4/11   5/11    6/11     7/11     8/11   9/11   10/11   11/11 12/11   1/12   2/12


  Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Volume of New Institutional Loans ($bil)
50




33




17




0
     2/11   3/11   4/11   5/11   6/11   7/11   8/11   9/11   10/11   11/11   12/11   1/12   2/12


Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
LCD Flow Name Composite (15 large, liquid names)
 100




  97




  95




  92




  90




  87


  2/11    3/11     4/11     5/11     6/11     7/11   9/11   10/11   11/11   1/12   2/12


  Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Average New-Issue Loan Clearing Yield
8%




8%




7%




6%




5%

  2/11           4/11           6/11        8/11   10/11   12/11   2/12


Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Amend-to-Extend, High-Yield Bond Take-out Volume ($bil)

25


                                             High Yield Takeouts
                                             A2E
19




                                                         Text
 13




     6




     0

         3/11   4/11    5/11    6/11     7/11     8/11          9/11   10/11   11/11   12/1   1/12   2/12


      Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Opportunistic Deal Flow ($bil)

60


                                                 Repricings
                                                 Dividends
45




                                                    Text
30




15




     0
          1Q11                2Q11               3Q11         4Q11   YTD 2011


     Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Leveraged Loan Default Rate (%)

1.5




1.1




0.8




0.4




 0
      2/11          4/11             6/11     8/11   10/11   12/11   2/22

  Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Upcoming Trends



• M&A deal-making light, at least in 1H


• Opportunity knocks? Issuers focused on
dividends, and maybe even repricings


• CLO activity heating up as AAA prints
narrow further
Follow LCD

www.lcdcomps.com
news, analysis, research, archives


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March 2012, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Leveraged Loan Update March - 2012 Steve Miller - Managing Director
  • 2. S&P/LSTA Index Returns 3% 1% -1% -3% -5% 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 3. Volume of New Institutional Loans ($bil) 50 33 17 0 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 4. LCD Flow Name Composite (15 large, liquid names) 100 97 95 92 90 87 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 1/12 2/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 5. Average New-Issue Loan Clearing Yield 8% 8% 7% 6% 5% 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 6. Amend-to-Extend, High-Yield Bond Take-out Volume ($bil) 25 High Yield Takeouts A2E 19 Text 13 6 0 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/1 1/12 2/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 7. Opportunistic Deal Flow ($bil) 60 Repricings Dividends 45 Text 30 15 0 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 YTD 2011 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 8. Leveraged Loan Default Rate (%) 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 0 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/22 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 9. Upcoming Trends • M&A deal-making light, at least in 1H • Opportunity knocks? Issuers focused on dividends, and maybe even repricings • CLO activity heating up as AAA prints narrow further
  • 10. Follow LCD www.lcdcomps.com news, analysis, research, archives www.linkedin.com/groups/LCD-Leveraged-Loan-Group-2092432 LCD Leveraged Loan Group ... 7,000+ contacts www.twitter.com/lcdnews Headlines, market chatter www.facebook.com/lcdcomps/ Daily Playbook, headlines, video analysis
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