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European Leveraged Finance Market Update
                July, 2012
        Sucheet Gupte - Director
European Market Trends
Text



       • Leveraged finance market was cautious in June


       • In high yield arena, appetite for well-established 4B
          rated issuers


       • Loan issuance slid from €5.3 billion to €2.5 billion


       • Loan prices fell in the secondary market; high yield
          bond prices rose


       • Default rates rose during the month
European Loan Flow Name Prices
    100


     99


     97


     96
                                           Text

     94


     93


     91
          1/11 2/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 4/12 5/12 6/12
.     Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
European HY Bond Flow Name Prices

    106


    102


     98


      94
                                    Text
      89


          85


          81

               1/11   3/11   5/11    7/11   9/11   11/11   1/12   3/12   6/12
.     Source: Bloomberg
ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return (monthly)
      3.0%
                                                   June 2012:       + 0.29%
                           Text                    May 2012:        + 0.10%
                                                   Jan-June 2012:   + 4.93%
                                                   Jan-June 2011:   + 4.31%
     1.8%




     0.5%




    (0.8%)




    (2.0%)
        2/10 4/10 6/10 8/10 10/10 12/10 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12 6/12

.      Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
New-issue: Loans vs. HY Bonds (monthly)
            12
                                                         HY bonds
                                     Text
                                                         Loans
            9
€billions




            6




            3                                                                                     €1.48B


                                                                                                  €2.5B
            0
             3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12

 .           Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans
                 Default Rate by Principal Amount                        Default Rate by Issuer Count

    16%                                                        16%



    13%                                                        13%



10%                                                            10%



    6%                                                       Text
                                                                6%



    3%                                                          3%



    0%                                                          0%
      2/09           3/10            4/11             6/12        2/09   2/10          2/11             6/12

.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Looking Ahead
out



      • The European sovereign crisis finale not yet played, we are
        still some distance from the closing credits


      • Possible inflows into high yield bond funds on back of interest
        rate cuts by ECB; tentative stability in the secondary markets

      • A-to-E to continue: issuers seek to address maturity
        concerns, though issuers that come to market are weaker


      • Issuers will continue to seek to tap US market for both loans
        and bonds, market permitting
Text
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July 2012, European Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update July, 2012 Sucheet Gupte - Director
  • 2. European Market Trends Text • Leveraged finance market was cautious in June • In high yield arena, appetite for well-established 4B rated issuers • Loan issuance slid from €5.3 billion to €2.5 billion • Loan prices fell in the secondary market; high yield bond prices rose • Default rates rose during the month
  • 3. European Loan Flow Name Prices 100 99 97 96 Text 94 93 91 1/11 2/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 4. European HY Bond Flow Name Prices 106 102 98 94 Text 89 85 81 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 6/12 . Source: Bloomberg
  • 5. ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return (monthly) 3.0% June 2012: + 0.29% Text May 2012: + 0.10% Jan-June 2012: + 4.93% Jan-June 2011: + 4.31% 1.8% 0.5% (0.8%) (2.0%) 2/10 4/10 6/10 8/10 10/10 12/10 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12 6/12 . Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
  • 6. New-issue: Loans vs. HY Bonds (monthly) 12 HY bonds Text Loans 9 €billions 6 3 €1.48B €2.5B 0 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 7. ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans Default Rate by Principal Amount Default Rate by Issuer Count 16% 16% 13% 13% 10% 10% 6% Text 6% 3% 3% 0% 0% 2/09 3/10 4/11 6/12 2/09 2/10 2/11 6/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 8. Looking Ahead out • The European sovereign crisis finale not yet played, we are still some distance from the closing credits • Possible inflows into high yield bond funds on back of interest rate cuts by ECB; tentative stability in the secondary markets • A-to-E to continue: issuers seek to address maturity concerns, though issuers that come to market are weaker • Issuers will continue to seek to tap US market for both loans and bonds, market permitting
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