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Seeking the Future: Five forces that will drive the next Techno-Economic Revolution
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Seeking the Future: Five forces that will drive the next Techno-Economic Revolution
1.
Seeking The Future Five
forces that will drive the next Techno-Economic Revolution 1 May 2012 1 Larry Ryan Chief Technologist, Financial Services Industry HP Enterprise Services ©2011 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. 1 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
2.
KONDRATIEFF CYCLES TO TECHNO-ECONOMIC
PARADIGMS Nickolai Kondratieff Joseph Schumpeter (1892-1938) (1883-1950) Inflection INNOVATION Point RECOVERY MATURITY NEXT & GROWTH Euphoria Anxiety MATURITY Thrill Technology Diffusion SYNERGY Denial Optimism Fear FRENZY Desperation Optimism Excitement Panic Relief ERUPTION Hope Despondency Time Big Bang Crash Recovery and Transition 2 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
3.
FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS
INSTALLATION PERIOD TURNIN DEPLOYMENT PERIOD G POINT Bubble prosperity Collapse & “Golden Prosperity Maturity Recessions Age” FIRST: •The “Industrial Revolution” (machines, factories, and canals) From 177 •Britain SECOND: •Age of Steam, Coal, Iron and Railways From 1829 •Britain and spreading to the Continent and USA THIRD: •Age of Steel, Electricity, and Heavy Engineering From 1875 •USA and Germany overtaking Britain FOURTH: •Age of the Automobile, Oil, Petrochemicals and Mass Production From 1908 •USA and Spreading to Europe FIFTH: •Age of Information Technology and Telecommunications From 1971 •USA, spreading to Europe and Asia SIXTH: •Age of Biotech, Nanotech, Bioelectronics and New Materials? From 20?? 3 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. * The Direction of innovation after the financial collapse, Carlota Perez, 9th Triple Helix Conference, July 2011
4.
FINANCIAL INNOVATIONS
IN THE 5TH WAVE Financial Tools Payment Channels Derivative Explosion • Swaps: interest rate, currency • SWIFT • Credit default swaps • Credit and debit cards growth (online • Total return swap authorization) • Online (PayPal), mobile (Square), wallets Asset Backed Securities • Micro transactions • Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO) • Auto, credit card, student, home equity Value systems • Airline mileage, hotel points, Bitcoin virtual Banking Channels currency, Facebook credits • Mobility • Online banking Quantitative Finance Markets • Risk management • FX, currency, equity, futures, commodities, • Pricing, portfolio valuation forwards 4 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
5.
FINANCIAL INNOVATIONS
IN THE 5TH WAVE Treasury Corporate Finance Capital Markets & Funding • Valuation methods • Growth retail trading • Capital strategy • Trade finance • Investment management • A/R factoring • Corporate debt • Securitization • M&A, outsourcing • Commercial paper • Multi-currency/multi-geography contracts Cash & Liquidity Management • Forecasting cash needs • Pooling Treasury Operations & Control • Global integration front, middle and back office • Global monitoring and inter-connectivity • Electronic bank interfacing • Corporate system integration (i.e., SAP) Risk Management • Visibility and reporting • Enterprise Risk Management • Hedging risks: interest, credit, currency, commodities • Credit risk management • Global risk management 5 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
6.
ASSET-BACKED SECURITIES
Asset-Backed Securities Outstanding (Billions) Automobile Credit Card Equipment Home Equity Manufactured Housing Other1 Student Loans 3,500.0 3,000.0 2,500.0 2,000.0 1,500.0 1,000.0 500.0 0.0 Asset-Backed Securities Issurance (millions) Auto Credit Cards Equipment Home Equity Manufactured Housing Other Student Loans 800,000.00 300,000.00 -200,000.00 7 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
7.
UNITED STATES GROSS
DOMESTIC PRODUCT 8 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
8.
UNITED STATES GROSS
CAPITAL FORMATION 9 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
9.
US DEBT MARKETS
US Commercial Paper US Corporate Bond Outstanding (USD Billions) Issurance (USD Billions) 2,500.0 1,500.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 1,500.0 1,000.0 500.0 500.0 0.0 0.0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan/2007 Jan/2008 Jan/2009 Jan/2010 Jan/2011 Jan/2012 Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Investment Grade High Yield US Outstanding Money Market Instruments (USD Billions) 6,000.0 4,000.0 2,000.0 0.0 Commercial Paper Bankers' Acceptance Lg. Time Deposits 10 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
10.
5 FORCES DRIVING
THE FUTURE BIO-TECH, NANO-TECH, ENVIRO-TECH, INFO-TECH2, ROBOTICS 11 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
11.
BIOLOGICAL TECHNOLOGY
• Cellular level rejuvenation • DNA computing • Hybrid robotic/biological systems • Genetically Modified Foods to feed billions • Uber-humans 12 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
12.
BIOLOGICAL TECHNOLOGY
The demand for replacement organs will increase as Boomers pay for their misspent lifestyles Contact lenses with circuits, lights a possible platform for superhuman vision Craig Venter and team at Synthetic Genomics engineered the first, human- created, artificial lifeform http://www.ted.com/talks/craig_venter_unveils_synthetic_life.html 13 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. Craig Venter
13.
NANO TECHNOLOGY
• Ultra-pure, ultra-light, ultra- efficient . . . ultra-everything • Invisible computers and infinite storage • Alternative, alternative energy • Homogenous by the billions • Heterogeneous by the molecules 14 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
14.
NANO TECHNOLOGY Nanomaterials
– ultra-pure, ultra-strong, ultra-lightweight, ultra-capable Glowing Report Smart Bomb Medicine Cabinet Seek and Destroy Power Pack Tiny Turbine Cell Control Alien Invasion Nanomachines – extremely small machines 15 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
15.
ENERGY & ECOLOGY
TECHNOLOGY • Ultra-efficient compute, storage, communications • Parasitic powered medical devices • Ultra-efficient, ultra-clean energy generation • Smart everything = Green everything 16 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
16.
ENERGY & ECOLOGY
TECHNOLOGY • ENMS system • 10% Renewable (not continuously monitors on premises) and optimizes energy • High efficiency UPS consumption and generators • BREEAM expected • 20+% total power Cooling Monitoring rating “very good” Power consumption reduction* • 97% Outside Air Economizers • Variable Speed Fans • low velocity undercroft plenum pressurised to 20 Lighting pascals • ~50% carbon • Dimmable, reduction* Addressable, Lighting Interface • 40-50% energy reduction • 45º orientation Data Hall Building • Encapsulated Cold Air Aisles • Distributed High • Groundwater Recovery System • Southern Exposure Performance Servers • Restored Ecosystem • 95% shell reuse • Light Grey Racks • Public Transportation • 65% salvage recycled • Higher operating set • 25% new from recycled points Grounds • High efficiency Roof * to comparable conventional facility 17 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
17.
ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY
ENERGY - BEYOND “RENEWABLE” Thermopower waves Traveling Wave Nuclear Power High efficiency direct conversion of radiation to electricity 18 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
18.
ROBOTICS TECHNOLOGY
• Nano-strong, nano-light materials • Biomimicry movements - Nature as Model, Measure and Mentor • Bipedal, humanoid, or whatever you want/need • Autonomic actions 19 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
19.
HUMANOID ROBOTICS Thinking
Reasoning • Optical Computing • Memristors • Neuromorphic Computing Senses • Inertial Guidance • Chemical Sensors • Pressure/Temperature Muscles Skeleton • Carbon nanotube • Electro-elastic polymers Energy Kojiro • Nanotechnology- Robot based batteries Tokyo University 20 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
20.
NON-HUMANOID ROBOTICS
RoboFly 21 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
21.
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
• 3rd Wave moving to the 4th Wave • Exploding Edges • IT everywhere – flexible, dynamic, invisible • Autonomic Operations • New capabilities, new uses, new opportunities 22 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
22.
CONTINUED EXPONENTIAL IT Memristors
& Neuromorphic Computing Photonic Computing 2D to 3D Architectures What Quantum Computing will fill this hole? 23 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
23.
NEUROMORPHIC COMPUTING
AND FINANCE – Millions of sensors • Sense, interpret, correlate, and summarize all financial related events • Cash flows, Expenditures, Funding • Investments & Assets • Trade Finance – Real-time Signal analysis to interpret and forecast • Liquidity management • Pro-forma financial position • Multi-currency & multi-value • Fraud • Risk Exposures & Management • Efficiency & Cost Analytics • Valuation, pricing, Black Swans – Applied learning methods • Changing landscape: banks, customers, partners, and portfolio • Cash & Liquidity Management • Fraud • Risk Exposures – Simulation & Back-testing – Distributed and ubiquitous 24 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
24.
WHERE ARE WE
NOW? 25 ©2010 HP reproduction by permission only © Copyright- 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
25.
Hewlett-Packard Company
Lawrence.ryan@hp.com 1 Penn Plaza; 8th Floor +1 (516) 901-3801 NY, NY 10121-0001 USA 26 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
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