Teslas JB Straubel at SCES2014 - Future of EVS gigafactories, battery storage and the grid

1. Southern California Energy Summit
JB Straubel
CTO, co-founder
Oct 10th, 2014

2. •
Lead-­‐acid
technology
was
status
quo
in
1995
•
Performance
had
stagnated
§
Short
lifespan
§
Very
heavy
§
Short
range
Lithium
ion
Made
Possible:
§
4
X
gravimetric
energy
density
§
6
X
volumetric
energy
density
§
3
X
cycle
life
EV Battery History!

3. Industry first Lithium Ion EV Powertrain!
3
-­‐
Controls and Software
Proprietary
53 kWh Lithium ion
battery pack
Power Electronics
Module
(DC-AC Inverter, Charger)
Proprietary 250hp AC
Induction Motor and
Gearbox

4. A
New
Idea
at
the
Time
(2004):
Performance
Electric
Cars

5. Focus on Energy Storage Packaging and Cost!
Ø Ground-up design as EV-only (Model S)"
Ø Optimal packaging, safety and performance"
Ø High energy density leads to lower cost" 85 kWh Battery
Pack

6. Glass Cockpit – Comfort with Software!

7. An Electronics and Software Culture!
• Core focus and Tesla DNA
• Battery voltage management
• Motor Control
• Diagnostics
• Touchscreen
• Mobile App
• Traction and Stability Control
• Complete Over the Air Updates

8. Model S!
Starting at $70,000
Performance
§ 0-­‐60
mph
:
4.2s
(sport),
3.2s
(dual
motor
sport)
Driving
range
§ 265
miles
(US
EPA
raCng)
Advanced
range
capabiliQes
§ 20
minute
DC
fast
charge
capability
(10-­‐60%)

9. Model S – Most Awarded car of 2013!

10. Dual Motor Platform – Unveiled Oct 9th !
Ø 3.2 second 0-60mph in Model S “P85D” (really fast!)"
Ø Improved efficiency and torque distribution"

11. Model X – Launch in 2015!

12. Vehicle
Affordability
Product Roadmap – Growing EV Volume!
Second
GeneraCon
PlaTorm
Market
Size
/
Timing
Tesla
Model
S
Tesla
Model
X
First
GeneraCon
Tesla
Roadster
Model
3
PlaTorm
Tesla
Model
3
Sedan
&
Crossover

13. Model S
Tesla Roadster
GM EV1
Volumetric Energy Density [Wh/l]
600
500
400
300
200
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
2010 2015 2020
700
Model 3
Battery Energy Density Trend!
800

14. Vehicle
Affordability
Product Roadmap – Growing EV Volume!
Second
GeneraCon
PlaTorm
Market
Size
/
Timing
Tesla
Model
S
Tesla
Model
X
First
GeneraCon
Tesla
Roadster
Model
3
PlaTorm
Tesla
Model
3
Sedan
&
Crossover

15. Tesla Battery Gigafactory!
Planned 2020 Gigafactory Production Exceeds 2013 Global Production
40!
35!
30!
25!
20!
15!
10!
5!
0!
35,000
Vehicles
2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! 2015! 2016! 2017! 2018! 2019! 2020!
Gigafactory!
Others!
Lishen!
BYD!
BAK!
ATL!
Maxell!
Sony!
Panasonic!
LGC!
SDI!
500,000
Vehicles
Global cell supply
growing, but
almost entirely in
Asia
Battery pack cost/kWh reduced >30% for Model 3
GWh/Year Production

16. Module
Cathode
Manufacturing
Aluminum
Foil
Cathode
Electrode
Anode
Electrode
Separator
Manufacturing
Separator
Winding
Cell
Assembly
Anode
Manufacturing
Copper
Foil
Raw Materials
Cell
Cell
…
Cell
Pack
Enclosure
Pack
Module
Module
…
Module
Vehicle
Assembly
(Fremont,
CA)
Can
&
Cap
Ba=ery
Pack
Life@me
Usage
Ba=ery
Pack
Recycling
Raw Steel/
Aluminum
Electrolyte
Manufacturing
Gigafactory Process Flow!

17. CoCO3
Ni metal
NiCoAlOH
NiSO4 (precursor)
H2SO4 NaAlO2
NaOH
Calcining
NiCoAlO
Chemical conversion
Li2CO3 LiOH
LiNiCoAlO2
Pulverizing
Classifying
O2
Calcining
CoSO4
smelter
Start with Raw Materials Cost!

19. EV Infrastructure – Tesla Supercharger!
• Tesla Supercharger Network
DC connection to vehicle
135 kW power (300-415VDC)
0-50% SOC in 20 minutes
• Free unlimited usage by Model S customers

20. EV Operating Cost!
Energy
cost
disparity
growing
(between
electricity
and
petroleum)
Electric
shaS
power
is
roughly
4x
as
efficient
as
petroleum
Electric
shaS
power
is
~$1.00/gallon
equivalent
(vs.
$4.00/gallon)

21. 2014 Year-End Plan – US & Canada!
• 115 active sites in US
• > 200 sites worldwide
• Adding a new location every ~18 hours

22. Superchargers Today (Tesla web Site “find us”)!

23. Superchargers around the world!

24. 2014 Plan - Europe!

25. Shanghai Supercharger!

26. Tesla Supercharger Usage Metrics!
Total
Energy
Output
(MWh)
10,897
Total
Capacity
(kW)
65,730
Total
#
of
SC
locaQons
/
stalls
189/1041
(+11
new
sites
in
June)
Total
#
of
Supercharge
Sessions
~300,000
Weekly Energy Output (MWh)
Installed Capacity (kW)

27. Industries Affected by Transport Electrification!
1. Badery
Cell
and
Cell
Materials
Suppliers
–
huge
growth
opportunity
• Raw
materials
(Nickel,
Cobalt,
Lithium
Hydroxide,
Graphite,
Separator,
Electrolyte)
• Cell
Assembly
equipment
(coaQng,
pressing,
winding,
assembly)
2. Electric
UQliQes
• Revenue
growth
and
Load
Management
opportunity
• Public
charging
growth
opportunity
(fast
DC
and
slower
AC)
• Growth
in
renewable
energy
generaQon
with
charging
storage
buffer
3. Power
Electronics
Suppliers
–
growth
opportunity
• IGBT’s,
charging,
magneQcs,
DC-­‐DC
conversion,
thermal
interface
materials
4. AutomoQve
and
Equipment
OEM’s
–
significant
change,
opportunity
and
risk
• New
EV
product
adributes
can
accelerate
sales,
delight
customers
• Lack
of
innovaQon
or
bemng
on
the
wrong
technology
can
cause
market
loss
• Poorly
implemented
EV
technology
can
waste
resources
and
lose
customers
5. Oil
and
Gas
Majors
–
eventual
reducQon
in
revenue
but
installed
base
is
huge
and
broad
• 1
billion
cars
on
the
road,
100M
new
per
year,
0.2%
EV
(~200,000/yr)

28. Stationary Energy Storage Product Derivatives!
Product Line Automotive Residential Commercial
Power/Energy 310 kW / 85 kWh 5 kW / 10 kWh 200 kW / 400 kWh+
Listed
Outdoor Rated

29. 29
Behind the Meter Concept w/ Solar Net Metering
Electric Utility
Ownership
Distributed Generation
Loads (consumption)
Distributed Storage
Bidirectional
Energy Flow

30. 30
Behind the Meter Storage Aggregation
10 x 100kWh = 1MWh
Electric Utility
Ownership
Customer
Ownership

31. 31
Behind the Meter Storage Aggregation
Electric Utility
Ownership
10 x 100kWh = 1MWh
Customer
Ownership
AggregaCon
Company
Utility or ISO

32. 32
Behind the Meter Storage Aggregation
Electric Utility
Ownership
60 x 100kWh = 6MWh
10,000 homes x 100kWh = 1,000MWh = 1GWh
Customer
Ownership
AggregaCon
Company
Utility or ISO

33. Stationary Pack at supercharger station in CA!
33
400
kWh
ba[ery
pack

34. Stationary Pack at supercharger station in CA!

35. Peak Demand Reduction at Supercharger Site

36. MW Scale Stationary Storage!

37. 400 kWh Scalable System!
1MW / 2 MWh
200kW / 400 kWh 200kW / 400 kWh 200kW / 400 kWh 200kW / 400 kWh 200kW / 400 kWh
Tesla
Factory
Fremont,
CA
Scalable
Building
Blocks

38. Utility Scale Storage!
20MW / 40 MWh!
• Modular
• Scalable (10s of MW+)
• AC Parallel Connections
– High Reliability
– Simplified Construction

39. California ISO load curve evolution!

40. 2020 California Load and Generation Curves!

41. 2020 California Load and Generation Curves!

42. The Ideal Solution?
Photovoltaic
Q: What area is required to offset 100% of
Passenger car miles driven in the USA?1
1. 1.658 x 1012 miles in 2002 (DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics)
2. cia.gov

43. “The stone age came to an end not for lack of stones
And the oil age will come to an end not for lack of oil”
— Sheikh Yamani, former Saudi Oil Minister